Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)

10 Things other Point Guards do better than Deron Williams, and why.

Utah, as Kenny Smith tells me every game I play as the Jazz in NBA 2k8, took a lot of heat for picking Deron Williams back when Chris Paul was on the board still -- waaay back in the 2005 NBA Draft. It looked like a poor choice after their rookie seasons ended. However, Deron seems to doing just fine for himself. That said, let's look at the other point guards in the league, and try to figure out why they do things better than Deron -- is it a talent issue, or something else entirely? [All statistics are from the 2007-2008 regular season, unless noted otherwise.] Each category displays what a leader in that category achieves, and how Deron fares in comparison. Furthermore an examination of how the other top Point guards fared in direct comparison to one another in the playoffs follows. You may just be surprised to see who came out on top over-all. Probably if you are among the same people who were surprised at Deron Williams' record result during the NBA All-Star Skills Competition . . . presented by Playstation.

Photographed by: Getty Images/NBAE

1. Points --

Baron Davis: 21.8 ppg (.426, 7.9-17.9 FGM-FGA) Deron Williams: 18.8 ppg (.505, 6.9-13.6 FGM-FGA) (#3 pg) Baron scored the most out of any point guard in the NBA last season -- though he was far from the most efficient scorer. He shoots the ball 18 times to score 22 points. That's basically Nellie ball at it's best (worst?). Deron Williams doesn't shoot as much, but shoots much smarter shots, he's one of the few Point Guards to have a fg% greater than 50%. Deron can score just as much as Baron, as the box scores of their 2nd round match-up in 2006-2007 clearly show. In this playoffs Deron upped his scoring per game to 21.0 ppg . . . while Baron Davis was unable to get his team there. A guy like Davis would have trouble in Sloan system. Deron can score with the best of them in any system.

Photographed by: Rocky Widner, NBAE/Getty Images

2. Field-Goal shooting --

Jose Manuel Calderon: 51.9% Deron Williams: 50.7% (#2 pg, #1 pg who has taken 1000+ shots in the 2007-2008 season) Jose came off the bench last season to be a highly effective point guard, and ended up splitting time with T.J. Ford. This season Jose will be the starter as T.J. was shipped off to Indiana. You don't shoot the ball at a 52% clip if you take bad shots. Nothing in Jose's game is really forced as he is very unselfish and easily a Top 10 point guard in the league. It doesn't hurt when you don't shoot a lot of shots -- but perhaps this will change as he gets more playing time this season. Deron is no slouch when it comes to playing a control game and taking good shots. He did have to change his role during the playoffs from a primary distributor to a primary scoring weapon . . . and that affected his FG%. He's still pretty awesome for scoring so efficiently while taking over 1100+ shots.

3. Three point shooting --

Steve Nash: 47.0 3PT%, 2.2 3PTM/Game Deron Williams: 39.5 3PT%, 1.0 3PTM/Game (#12 pg, #3 in PGs who score 15+ ppg) How good is Steve Nash from deep? Just a point of reference here . . . Nash shoots better from three than Baron Davis (the top PG in terms of PPG) does over-all. Deron Williams has been a pretty good three point shooter in his career (usually around 40%), but Nash shot nearly 50% last season. That is truly spectacular. Nash takes a lot of quick shots during transition and the early stages of an aborted half court attack. This is partly due to the Phoenix Suns' offensive attack, and partly due to Nash (he knows his talents, and he used to play this way back in Dallas as well). Deron Williams is strong from deep, and is quite clutch from three as well. He's a smart player, but his true potential for bombing is slightly curtailed by Jerry Sloan's penchant for avoiding shooting the three almost as much as Vampires avoid having wooden stakes in their hearts. When you limit the field to only point guards who score 15+ ppg, Deron goes from being the 12th best to the 3rd best at three point shooting. This is a huge jump that removes a lot of specialists. Deron's complete game includes the three. As a top level PG you have to score at least that much, and keep defenses honest with a three point shot.

Photographed by: Roy Dabner/AP Photo

4. Free Throw Attempts / Game --

Chauncey Billups: 5.6 FTA / Game Deron Williams: 5.0 FTA / Game (#3 pg) Getting to the free throw line is an art form for some. It is a true product of veteran savvy and skill. It doesn't hurt if you are a star player who has a ring and a finals MVP trophy to show off time to time. (Those who don't usually resort to flopping, or their sense of entitlement) Deron Williams doesn't have the credentials of a Billups, the flopping of a San Antonio, or the world on a platter that Chris Paul does -- but what he does have is an ability to drive to the basket, be a physical point guard, absorb contact and go to the line 0.6 times less than the top man in the league at his position. While I never expect Deron to get those 'Chris Paul calls', I do expect that as he gains more playoff experience and exposure that his FTA/game will only go up as well.

Photographed by: Roy Dabner/AP Photo

5. Assists --

Steve Nash: 11.1 Deron Williams: 10.5 (#3 pg) Steve Nash may not be the apg king of the NBA any longer, but he's still one of the best. For the second straight season Deron Williams finishes right below Nash when it comes to dropping dimes. Nash plays only 34 mpg, but the style of play of his club is one where they push the pace of the game and there are more assists to be had. I know Nash is a great point guard, but how many assists per game would he get in a ball control, slow tempo offense? (Not unlike what the Jazz used to run when John Stockton was getting older) Deron Williams leads a very efficient Utah attack as well, but Nash has better offensive weapons to pass to. (Amare, Shaq, Raja Bell and Barbosa are better scorers than Boozer, Memo, Andrei and Ronnie Brewer) That said, 0.6 less apg isn't that big of a deal in the big picture. In the 2008 Playoffs Nash and Deron's rankings were flipped, with Deron being #2, & Nash #3. Nash will always remain a much flashier passer though.

6. Assist to Turn Over Ratio --

Jose Manuel Calderon: 5.38 Ast/TO Deron Williams: 3.09 Ast/TO (#13 pg, #6 in PGs who play 30+ mpg) I'm sorry, but Jose's Ast:To ratio is just insanely high. He just takes care of the ball very well. Deron isn't even in the Top 10 of this for the regular season . . . but when you eliminate all the point guards who play less than 30+ mpg then he's 6th best in the league. That's not that bad, the magic number for point guards has always been that 3:1 ratio, and Deron satisfies that requirement. Jose rarely makes a mistake on offense as he's the NBA leader among point guards in FG% and Ast:TO ratio. So he gets major props from me. It's that much more impressive when you factor in that Jose has to sometimes pass the ball to guys like Kris Humphries. On the same wavelength, Deron's turn overs would be severely reduced if Jerry Sloan cut Matt Harpring's playing time.

7. Rebounds --

Jason Kidd: 7.5 rpg Deron Williams: 3.0 rpg (#12 pg) Jason Kidd, at 6'5, is a great rebounding point guard. He has a nose for the ball, he seems to always be in the right place, and more than anything else that we can attribute to Jason himself, he's played with some of the worst rebounding bigmen ever in his career. Who is the best he's played with, Kenyon Martin? Has he ever been in the Top 10 this millennium? Deron Williams, on the other hand, has had to take whatever he can get when it comes to boards has he has Boozer (11+ rpg), Okur (9+ rpg), Kirilenko (8+ rpg), Harpring (8 rpg), Millsap (6 rpg) on his team to do all of that for him. [N.B. these are career highs showing rebound potentials] I'm certain that if asked to, Deron could board more -- especially if he was on a different team. Look at Chris Paul -- his power forward (David West) gets 8 rpg. Boozer gets over 10 rpg. Paul has to make up some of the difference.

Photographed by: Rick Havner/AP Photo

8. Steals --

Chris Paul: 2.71 spg Deron Williams: 1.10 spg (#14 pg) Flat out, Chris Paul is an amazing steals guy. He is very quick and is an absolute terror in the passing lanes. You don't luck into getting nearly 3 spg -- it's a talent that you have. Some guys have it, others do not. Still, others could be okay steals guys, but don't have the green light on defense to roam around getting them. I don't think that John Stockton was the best man-to-man defender ever, but he has the league record for Steals. Why? Because for a large part of his career, Stockton basically played free safety for the Jazz on defense while the paint was anchored by Mark Eaton and Greg Ostertag. That allowed him the liberty to go for steals and play aggressively like that. If he was burned, Big Mark would send the shot back. Chris Paul benefits from having Tyson Chandler around. That doesn't mean that Paul only gets steals because he has a big man watching the paint -- it means that Paul can cheat a bit more than guys on other teams could have. For a point of reference, Deron Williams scored higher during the pre-draft combine on some agility drills than Paul did -- but he has Mehmet Okur watching the paint -- so he can't go for steals, he has to stay on the ball handler at all times. If Deron had a better defensive bigman protecting the basket I'm sure he could cheat for more steals -- but surely nothing like 2.7+ spg.

9. Blocks --

	Marko Jaric: 0.43 bpg Deron Williams: 0.28 bpg (#5 pg) Okay, Marko is 6'7 and Deron is 6'3 . . . I'm okay that Deron isn't the best shot blocking point guard in the NBA -- Top 5 isn't bad at all. My question is: does Marko get extra points for being the most hated cock-blocker on the Internet? Seriously? Adriana Lima? WTF?
Photographed by: Danny Moloshok / Reuters

10. Double Doubles --

Chris Paul: 56 Deron Williams: 52 (#2 pg) CP just edges out Deron for this one . . . and it's really no surprise. Chris Paul had an amazing 2007-2008 season, and nothing can take that away from him. Deron, on the other hand, had a ton of 8 or 9 assist games (13 actually), that resulted in Jerry Sloan sitting him without him getting the requires stats to be self-satisfied. (Similar to how he'd continually sit John Stockton when Stock would have 20+ assists, but not let him try for the single game record -- it was about the win, and not about the stats for good ol' Jer.) CP, no doubt, had a ton of those games as well, so for all things considered, these two point guards are quite similar in their double-double abilities -- with Chris Paul getting the job done a whopping 4 more times than Deron in a season. In the playoffs Chris had 8 double doubles and 1 game of 9 assists while Deron had 7 double doubles and three games of 9 assists -- basically the same.

Ordinal Ranks?

Regular Season:	PPG	FG%	3pts	FTA	APG	A:TO	RPG	SPG	BPG	Double Doubles	Average
Actual	3	3	12	3	3	13	12	14	5	2	6.9
Adjusted	3	1	3	3	3	6	12	14	5	2	5.2

So if you adjust the rankings to include only those point guards who score 15+ ppg, have taken over 1000+ shots in the season and play at least 30+ mpg . . . Deron Williams is clearly a Top 5 Point Guard in the NBA. Keep in mind that his statistics went up during the playoffs, and that's when he really shines. (21.6 ppg, 50.0 3PT%, 10.0 apg, etc.)

2008 Playoffs:	PPG	FG%	3pts	FTA	APG	A:TO	RPG	SPG	BPG	Double Doubles	Average
Actual	3	4	1	3	2	9	6	10	2	2	4.2

Over-all, he's one of the top Point guards in the league, and his average of 4.2 is nothing to laugh at; especially when compared to the other Top Guards in the league.

2008 Playoffs:	PPG	FG%	3pts	FTA	APG	A:TO	RPG	SPG	BPG	Double Doubles	Average
C. Billups	6	10	11	2	8	5	10	9	16	6	8.3
C. Paul	1	2	23	1	1	1	2	1	11	1	4.4
D. Fisher	12	9	6	9	15	11	15	2	15	8	10.2
D. Williams	3	4	1	3	2	9	6	10	2	2	4.2
J. Calderon	10	6	3	23	4	2	6	21	21	6	10.2
J. Kidd	15	16	4	17	5	6	1	4	1	8	7.7
J. Nelson	4	1	2	7	10	13	4	18	7	8	7.4
R. Rondo	13	9	20	13	6	7	3	3	4	4	8.2
S. Nash	4	5	13	14	3	8	11	14	7	4	8.3
T. Parker	2	3	16	4	7	14	5	7	17	3	7.8

* Some point guards did not qualify for some categories (like Chris Paul for threes), so their total rank was used for point guards (not just the qualifying rank, as they failed to qualify).

Yeah, let's take a look at this, now shall we? Billups, who has attained Sainthood for his playoff performances here in Detroit gets an average ordinal rank of 8.3, which is good enough for a tie for 7th best over-all. Jameer Nelson, on the other hand, had a very strong playoffs statistically (#3 over all), but he's far from the 3rd best point guard who played in the playoffs last season. Chris Paul is clearly one of the top point guards, especially with this metric where his individual ordinal rankings for each of the 10 categories is rarely out of the top 2. That said, his failings do put him below Deron Williams over all by the smallest of margins (4.2 vs. 4.4).

This is fitting, I believe, because it shows something important. Deron is hardly going to be the absolute best at one thing, but he'll be among the best in many things -- perhaps making him the best over-all. When you have a point guard who averages 21 and 10 in the playoffs while shooting 50% from deep you have a pretty good point guard. He may not get as much publicity as someone who appears to be head and shoulders over everyone else (i.e. Chris Paul) -- but in the over-all scheme (hence, the ordinal rankings), Deron Williams seems to be just as good (if not a little bit better). I like to call him The Dominator, but perhaps a more fitting name would be the Gestalt Point Guard, or Voltron, or something like that . . . he's strong in just so many ways that he can beat you -- eventually -- by finding your weakness and exploiting it.