"To be honest with you Diane, I'm surprised..."

You may not know where that quote is from, so just to get it over with . . . watch this.

This season has been surprising for a variety of reasons, and there are some things that have surprised me immensely; though, I was probably not as surprised as Erica up above was, the point needs to be said: this run on sentence features the word "surprise" a surprisingly large number of times. In celebration of me murdering the English language, here are the Top 5 surprises of the Utah Jazz season so far:

5. Record against Eastern Conference teams:

Right now the Jazz are sitting at 32-23. Over that span the Jazz have gone 22-11 against the Western Conference, that's not too shabby when you look at how injured they have been. Over a closer inspection, though, this reveals that the Jazz have gone 10-12 against the East so far this season. That's pathetic. Sure, 7 of those 12 losses have been on the road (on brutal road trips); but that means that the Jazz have lost to the East 5 times ON THEIR OWN HOMECOURT! Chicago, New Jersey, Miami, Orlando and Cleveland have all beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City. It's bad enough to lose to contenders on your homer court, but to lose to teams like the Bulls, Heat and Nets is just inexcusable. I remember that Orlando game vividly, the Jazz were pounding Orlando, I felt good about the game and went out to get some "drive thu" at halftime. When I came back the Jazz were getting killed. What happened? For whatever reason, the Jazz have sucked against the east this season . . . it's one thing to have the Cavs sweep you, but the Bulls also? Yeeesh!

4. Kyle Korver's shooting:

Remember the good old days, last season, when Korver shot 47.4 fg%, 38.8 3pt% and 91.7 ft%? Those were good days, weren't they? They were not career highs for Kyle (save for fg%) but he came to the Jazz with shooting percentages that boasted career averages of over 40% from deep and 88% from the stripe. I even felt that he would improve after a Utah Jazz training camp (based on the premise that Hornacek's percentages all went up from his half a season with the Jazz to his first full season). Well, this season he's been fighting through a wrist injury on his shooting hand that has seriously impacted his shot making ability. It hasn't hurt any other parts of his game as he's boarding better, playing remarkably solid defense for stretches . . . and he's still getting the same TYPES of shots that he was making last season (i.e. waaaay open shots within the Jazz offense). That said, here are his numbers this season through the 51 games he has played so far: 40.9 FG% 34.7 3PT% 85.5 FT% Sure, they are not that bad, especially not his FT and 3PT percentages compared to the average guard off the bench in the NBA, but let's not forget that shooting is Kyle's speciality. He's shooting 7% worse from the floor than he did last season. His three point percentage is a CAREER LOW right now (wasn't he supposed to be our three point ace?) and his FT% used to be sky high (90+ %) but has leveled off quite a bit.

3. Kosta Koufos is a lot better than I thought he would be:

I like Kosta, he seems like an amazing person and an amazing team mate. He's very coachable and works very hard. I did not know that he was as good as he has shown, though. I did probably over analyze his games over the Rocky Mountain Review, but I'm happy to say that he's not the same player that we all first saw. Back then he was a guy who almost shot the ball as frequently as once every 2 minutes on the floor, was a dead-eye FT shooter (90.9 ft%) and had a 38.1 fg%. Really, check out the stats. Instead he's a guy who is giving the Jazz almost 5 ppg (51 fg%, 70 ft%), 3 rpg, and nearly 1 bpg -- as a rookie. It's surprising that we aren't seeing more of him. I appraised him and his first season as one of learning, working hard, and being much more offensively gifted than Fesenko was as a rookie. I was correct on all of those counts; though, I thought that he would have at least spent some time down with the NBA-DL . . . but Jerry has hardly used that at all this season.

2. The Boozer/Millsap conundrum:

I think that Boozer is pretty much what anyone would want from a power forward statistically. He scores very efficiently and rebounds like a man possessed. Millsap doesn't have the offensive polish of Boozer, but in times where 'Sap got playing time, he was able to produce some really eye-opening numbers. This is how I felt at the beginning of the season, and still, it's hard to get away from my thoughts which suggest that Boozer is a quality NBA starter (just not on man to man defense), and Paul Millsap is a Top 10 Bench player in the NBA. There's a fine line that should distinguish these two (and no, I don't mean salary), and at times this season Millsap has shown himself to be the equal, better, or in some cases, lesser of Carlos Boozer -- at times blurring this line, and other times justifying it. Arguments can (and have been) made to suggest one is better than the other, but really, shouldn't we be happy to have both -- together!?! (Even if it's just for the short term?) Boozer can do things Millsap can't, and vice versa. Millsap's play this season (mostly as a starter as Boozer has been injured for 43 games) may have pushed his going rate to higher than the Jazz may be willing to pay -- if they intend on keeping both players. This is a surprise to me, because I felt as though Millsap was a great younger player, but not a guy knocking on the door of a $8+ million dollar a year contract. How many of you out there on the Internet thought he would be worth as much?

1. All the Injuries / The Jazz record despite all the Injuries:

I don't really need to spell this one out, but I'm really surprised at all the injuries -- and even more surprised by being so many games over .500 -- I guess this is why you have to play the games though, right? Just read this for more information.

December Schedule Overview

Just to refresh everyone's memories . . . last season Utah played 16 games in December and managed to go 5-11over that span. The main reasons why the Jazz lost so many games happened to be a mixture of injuries, off-court drama (thanks Giricek!) and the fact that teams learned to just play zone defense against Utah. This season we have a slew of injuries and go into December looking to play 15 games.

The first three games are an away game @ Sacramento on Tuesday, quickly followed by a home game the very next night against the Miami Heat. I've never flown from Sacramento to Salt Lake City before, but that doesn't seem to be too bad -- weather permitting. The Jazz do not play again until Friday, with a game on TV (ESPN) hosting the Toronto Raptors.

After the two game home stand the Jazz face off with a pair of road games -- the first @ Phoenix (the 2nd night of a back-to-back) on Saturday, and then @ Minnesota on Tuesday.

Again, alternating between home games and road games the Jazz return to Salt Lake City for games against Portland (also on TV, this time TNT) and then two days later, against Orlando. Then the fun starts . . .

Fun being our 2nd 5 game Eastern Conference Road trip in two months. Thankfully it appears to be a bit more spaced out than last time. On the 15th the Jazz play @ Boston, on the 17th the Jazz play @ New Jersey, on the 19th the Jazz play @ Detroit. The next night the Jazz play @ Chicago -- this is not only the 2nd night in a back-to-back set but also the 3rd game in 4 nights. The Jazz's last stop is against the Milwaukee Bucks on the 23rd. On paper playing against Boston, Detroit and Chicago should be harder than playing against the Wizards, Bobcats and Knicks -- but the Jazz lost all three of those games too, so who is to say how Utah will fare this time around?

After Christmas the Jazz play Dallas on boxing day, then visit Houston the very next night. Utah finishes the month with a home game against Philadelphia.

For those keeping score at home that's 6 games against the West, and 9 games against the East. (We've only lost once all season against the West so far, and 6 times against Eastern foes) Furthermore, the Jazz play 6 home games and 9 road games.

There are only four back-to-back sets (@ Sac, vs. Mia; vs. Tor., @ Phoe; @ Det, @ Chi; and vs. Dal, @ Hou) this month, so that's one good thing from this mess that we can look forward to.

There are a number of 3rd game in 4 nights: the Toronto game is one, so will be the game @ Phoenix, the game @ Chicago and the game at home vs. Philadelphia.

It's not easy, but December is very rarely easy for the Jazz. Anything less than going 7 - 8 would be horrible.

New Poll: Remembering November

Now that the first month of the season is in the history books, how will you remember it?

	Is the fact that the Jazz lost to so many crappy teams how you are going to remember this month? I know I was upset at losing to some of those teams, but you just can't expect to win every game -- especially not when it comes down to a broken play, 2nd shot attempt buzzer beater in transition (Chicago), or playing an unbelievably hot player (Devin Harris). That said, I'm still pissed off at all of these losses to East Teams.
	Or are you optimistic about our future, based on the solid, and somewhat spectacular play of our younger players -- Brewer, Miles and Koufos are all doing better than I thought they would early on!
	Perhaps you're just happy to limp into December, and recognize that once the Jazz are finally healthy, that they'll be fine.
	Ooof . . . too much Turkey
	Depth is a reason to be satisfied with this team early on.
	Hardly any Harpring! Hooray!

I have my own opinions, and decided not to put a 'bench' option because that plays into our depth.

Poll Result: What's the main problem so far this season?

So far the Utah Jazz have been one of the better teams in the conference, though not one of the top 5 teams in the league. There are some serious holes in the way the team has been playing, and as a result, the record Utah has produced reflects this -- as of today, the Utah Jazz are 11-7, which is 3rd best in the Northwest Division. There were 30 votes in this poll, and it's no big surprise to see which category was voted the main problem so far this season. My 'joke' entry ended up being second though, so that was surprising . . .

	Votes	%	Notes
Not defending the perimeter	5	16%	According to 82games.com, the Jazz are 3rd worst in defending the three -- 39.4 3pt%. Just re-watching the Knicks game shows how important this is. That link does support the fact that the Jazz are very solid at defending inside shots (relative to the NBA average, the Jazz are 5th best in the league -- without having any real shot blocking guy in there).
Not making open shots	3	10%	Well, the Jazz are 2nd in the NBA in made dunks (106 so far this season), and shoot 61.4% from inside. Pretty much, most of the time, the Jazz are making their easy shots. However, I've seen countless examples of missed layups, missed post up shots when our guys are posted up against smaller defenders, and way too many missed open threes. We make one of those open threes each game and we have a much better record.
Not healthy enough	12	40%	This is the big reason -- and really, the only one we need. If the Jazz are healthy, they aren't losing 7 games this month. Last game the TV crew showed a graphic of how many games the Jazz players have lost to injury/illness this season. Right now we sit at more than 60. Last season alone the Jazz missed only about 45.
Not running?	0	0%	No one picked this. Without Deron Williams running the half court the only time the back up point guards were useful was in a running game -- this was especially true of Brevin Knight who doesn't even know all the plays yet. (He admitted as such) Our offense (which, btw, isn't even scoring 100 ppg this season) is predicated on point guard play. When our PGs were busy turning the ball over, or taking early shots, the rest of our team can't get it going.
Not playing every game at home	10	33%	I put this up there as a joke, but apparently 10 people felt that it was a real reason. True, the Jazz usually win their games at home, but Utah lost 2 games there in the last week (Chicago Bulls and NJ Nets) -- just because it's a home game doesn't mean that it's a win anymore.

Flashback Friday: The first 10 games of the last two seasons

Last season (2007-2008) the Utah Jazz won 54 games in the regular season, but only 6 in the post season, for a grand total of 60 wins. The Jazz also won 60 total wins the previous season (2006-2007) -- 51 in the regular season and 9 in the post season. I think that this club is ready to break the 60 total win barrier and do something special this season. The years where the Utah Jazz start off hot as usually the most successful seasons for the Jazz as well. That said, it has to start somewhere, so let's take a look at the first 10 games of the last two seasons: 2006-2007 and 2007-2008.

	2006-2007				2007-2008				2008-2009
	Opponent	Win	Record		Opponent	Win	Record		Opponent	Win	Record
1	Houston Rockets	Yes	1-0		@ Golden State Warriors	Yes	1-0		Denver Nuggets	Yes	1-0
2	@ Phoenix Suns	Yes	2-0		Houston Rockets		1-1		LA Clippers	Yes	2-0
3	Golden State Warriors	Yes	3-0		Golden State Warriors	Yes	2-1		@ LA Clippers	Yes	3-0
4	Detroit Pistons	Yes	4-0		@ LA Lakers		2-2		Portland Trailblazers	Yes	4-0
5	@ New Jersey Nets		4-1		Cleveland Cavaliers	Yes	3-2		Oklahoma City Thunder	Yes	5-0
6	@ Boston Celtics	Yes	5-1		@ Seattle Supersonics	Yes	4-2		@ New York Knicks	?
7	@ Milwaukee Bucks	Yes	6-1		Memphis Grizzlies	Yes	5-2		@ Philadelphia 76ers	?
8	@ LA Clippers	Yes	7-1		Sacramento Kings	Yes	6-2		@ Washington Wizards	?
9	@ Seattle Supersonics	Yes	8-1		@ Toronto Raptors	Yes	7-2		@ Charlotte Bobcats	?
10	Phoenix Suns	Yes	9-1		@ Cleveland Cavaliers		7-3		@ Cleveland Cavaliers	?

The last two seasons the Jazz started above .500 and went on to have pretty successful seasons (winning their Division, getting to (at the very least) the 2nd round of the playoffs). In 06-07 the Jazz beat some really good squads on their way to an amazing 9-1 record. (Phoenix twice, Houston, Detroit, etc) The next season the Jazz lost the games against harder opponents -- like the Lakers, the Rockets, and the Cavs on the road. This season how do you think the Jazz will fare?

The remaining games after tonight's game against Oklahoma (which we won, btw) appear to be 'easier' than having to face 5 Western powers in a row, though they comprise a really tough Eastern stretch where there are:

• two sets of back to back games (Nov. 11th-12th; Nov. 14th-15th)
• three different situations of 3 games in 4 nights (Nov. 9th, 11th & 12th; Nov. 11th, 12th & 14th; Nov. 12th, 14th & 15th)
• 4 games in 5 nights (Nov. 11th, 12th, 14th & 15th)
• and ultimately, 5 games in 7 nights.

That's brutal. If you have any Jazz guys on your fantasy team start them this week as there are 5 games -- but if you are just a Jazz fan, you do not relish the upcoming week.

Just because you are playing against the Eastern teams doesn't mean that they are just going to roll over. We're traditionally not that great on the road, and the schedule works against us here. Let's go over these teams and the games the Jazz will play against them in:

November 9th, 2008	@ New York Knicks
	New York (3-2) is a run an gun team that's nothing like the Eddie Curry / Zach Randolph disaster from last season. (101.6 ppg so far this season) Almost everyone on their team shoots threes -- 7 different guys on their roster has made at least one. Making things worse is the fact that we've been historically bad in Madison Square Garden over the years. This is not going to be as easy as we think to get a win here -- especially when we're going in there without Deron Williams. Nate Robinson has been playing very well this season, so far coming off the bench to average 16 ppg (48.4 fg%, 42.3 3pt%), 4.2 rpg, 4.8 apg and 2.6 spg. Wilson Chandler has a surprisingly effective offensive game as well. There's no guarantee to say we'll win this one.
November 11th, 2008	@ Philadelphia 76ers
	Philly (2-4) is supposed to be really good, a top team in the East -- at least according to pre-season projections by "experts" . . . so far their offense looks horrible and their team isn't winning. That said, they are long and big inside (Brand, Dalembert, Marreese, etc) and have some youth and athleticism in the likes of Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and this Iguodala guy. Boozer hates playing against guys with longer reaches than he has -- and all three of those big guys have than on Booz. Additionally, stronger slashers with good first steps routinely can burn Brewer and Kirilenko -- and Thaddeus and Andre Iguodala both fit the bill there. By the time they play the Jazz, they would have had a 5 day rest.
November 12th, 2008	@ Washington Wizards
	Washington (0-4) has been playing without Gilbert Arenas, and is still looking for their first win of the season. Tonight they play the Orlando Magic and could very well be down 0-5 by the time that they play the Jazz -- but that doesn't mean they still can't hurt us . . . they are a good outside shooting team, and the duo of Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison (two mobile and active players on offense) can score with ease. It's about this time of the road trip that fatigue could be setting in as this is the 2nd game in a back to back and the first 'three games in four nights' set of the season for the Jazz. Through some quirks of the scheduling, the Wizards will have three free days before the game against the Jazz, and be rested.
November 14th, 2008	@ Charlotte Bobcats
	Logic suggests that a game against Charlotte (2-3) would be a relative breather at this stage in the 5 game road trip, but the Bobcats are long and athletic -- and have nothing to lose. They beat the New Orleans Hornets last night, and that should show us how dangerous they can be on any given night, thanks to Coach Larry Brown. They will have played the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets this next week before they face off against the Jazz on Friday. We don't know what's going to happen with Gerald Wallace during that time period, but we know that they are strong defensively inside with Wallace (8.8 rpg, 2.4 spg, 1.0 bpg) and Okafor (11.0 rpg, 1.0 bpg). In addition there's this Jason Richardson (17.6 ppg, 1.2 3ptm/game) guy who is pretty dynamic and used to score on us at will back when he was playing for the Golden State Warriors. So far they are only scoring 90.4 ppg, and if there is one easy game during this road trip, this may very well be it. It's a 3rd game in four nights game, by the way.
November 15th, 2008	@ Cleveland Cavaliers
	This game against the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-2, who have games against Chicago, Milwaukee and Denver this week before they tip off against the Jazz)  is another 'three games in four nights' set; the 2nd night of a back to back set; and the fourth game in five nights. And yes, if you're keeping track, 5th game in 7 nights total. It's a game against the talented, bruising and defensive minded Cleveland Cavaliers. They are really big inside with Zydrunas, Sideshow Bob and Ben Wallace; feature a plethora of smaller guards who don't have any consciences when it comes to attempting threes (Boobie Gibson, Delonte West, Mo Williams, Sasha Pavlovic, etc). Last, but not least, they have LeBron James. Also Boozer hardly ever plays well there. If we win this game, I will give up eating bacon for a month. And I love bacon.

I'd like to think the Jazz could end up with another 9-1 record, but I don't count on it . . . the schedule is the main opponent for the Jazz during this 5 game Eastern Conference road trip, and the main opponent the Jazz are going to face during our first 10 games of the season. I wouldn't be surprised for the Jazz to limp home after this trip with 3 losses. Then again . . . this is all speculative appraisals of the situation based on a world where Deron Williams does not suit up in any of these games. (And it looks like he's not going to suit up at all for a while now, according to the Deseret News.)

The Jazz have 5 more games -- all on this East trip -- how do you think they'll finish? Will the Jazz go 10-0 to start the season? 5-5? 6-4? What do you guys think?

N.B. All Images are photographed for NBAE/Getty Images

Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)

Flashback Friday: First 20 games of previous seasons

As the trees change colors and all the snotty kids begin to learn their locker combinations at school the seasonal dynamics take another turn -- a turn towards the return of the NBA. Before you know it, it'll be opening night. The NBA schedule makers usually have to give the Jazz the short end of the stick (because our owner doesn't fancy home games on Sunday), and our last month of the season (April) the last few seasons have been absolutely brutal. That said, the Jazz usually start off strong in the first handful of games before taking a mid-season nose dive in December.

In the 2002-2003 season Utah went 12-8 in the first 20 games of the season. Some of the boxscores were just flat out nutty on that team. For example, the first game of the season (a 100-75 loss to the New Orleans Hornets) had Malone lead the team with 20 points, had Mark Jackson lead the team in rebounds with 7, and Malone and Stockton led the team with assists with only 4 each. Malone led the team in scoring 11 times, Kirilenko 3 times, Harpring 4 times, Stockton 2 times and Ostertag 1 time. (The next few games were even crazier, including increasingly less scoring from Malone, and more from Kirilenko and Harpring, who would lead the scoring for the Jazz in 9 of the next 10 games.) Clearly it was a season of transition. By the start of January Malone had broken 30 points in a game once, and Harpring and Kirilenko did it a combined three times. That team finished the season 47 - 35 and was bounced from the playoffs in the first round by Sacramento in 5, Stockton and Malone's last game together.

The next season (2003-2004) was the first season without John Stockton on our team since the early 80's. The Jazz started the season 11-9 and were led by the likes of Arroyo, Kirilenko, Harpring, Stevenson, Bell and Lopez. A mid-season trade for Gordan Giricek proved to be a smart move immediately as he helped the team with his scoring (24 points in a win against Detroit, 21 points in a win against the Lakers, 33 points in a win against Phoenix on the road, 25 in a loss to the Raptors, 19 in a win against New Orleans, 22 in a loss to the Spurs, 25 in a win against Memphis and 23 in a win against Houston -- all in the last two months of the season) on the way to a 42-40 final record. The Jazz barely missed the playoffs and this special shooting guard seemed to be a big part of that. (I wonder what happened to this guy who could go off for 20+ points on any given night?) Andrei was an All-Star this season, if I remember correctly.

That off season the Jazz front office had a free agent coup by signing Carlos Boozer (FA), and Mehmet Okur (RFA) to big money deals. The results of the first 20 games of 2004-2005 speak for themselves though: the Jazz went 9-11. This was the first time they were below .500 to start the season in quite a long time. The future looked bright for the Jazz as Boozer was scoring quite a bit (27 in the 1st game of the season, and win against the Lakers; quickly followed by games of 30, 34, 27, 25, 27, 36, 29 and so on) and Andrei was doing his all around thing . . . but both went down and did not finish the season. The Jazz finished with a 26-56 record, and a date with the ping-pong balls.

The very next season Carlos Boozer got injured in the pre-season and the 2005-2006 season was beginning to look a lot like Deja Vu for Jazz fans. Utah limped to a 8-12 record to start the season, some wins relying on Matt Harpring scoring 30 points and Jarron Collins getting 10 boards. Utah finished the season 41-41, just baring missing the playoffs again! This season finished with the starting lineup of Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko (at the 2), Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur (at the 4) and Carlos Boozer (at the 5). For those who forgot, the Jazz won 7 of their last 10 games (2 of those losses were to the Spurs though).

Utah finally makes the playoffs in 2006-2007, winning the Northwest Division title and breaks 50 wins in a season for the first time in what seems like eternity. The Jazz go 51-31 off of some strong performances by Boozer, Okur and Williams, after an amazing 15-5 start! Everyone was finally healthy and a 2nd year Deron Williams powered the team as Memo and Booz were honored to be part of the Western Conference All-Star team.

Last season (2007-2008) the Jazz improved on their win total and end the season with a 54-28 record. How did they start? They started the season 13-7 -- which is less than the previous season, but they ended up winning more games. They ended up trading Gordan Giricek for Kyle Korver and won their 2nd straight Northwest Division title (sorry AI and the rest of the Denver Media Hype Bandwagon).

Here is a recap of the past 6 seasons:

Season	1st 20 games	Season Record	Playoffs?	Won Division?
2002-2003	12-8	47-35	Yes
2003-2004	11-9	42-40
2004-2005	9-11	26-56
2005-2006	8-12	41-41
2006-2007	15-5	51-31	Yes	Yes
2007-2008	13-7	54-28	Yes	Yes

So we can clearly see that starting off well is very important to the Jazz actually making the playoffs. Every season where we've won at least 12 of the first 20 games has us making the playoffs and being close to a 50 win team. It's probably something to watch then as winning games early and making the playoffs seem to share some common factors, if not are correlated to one another.

What do our first 20 games look like this season?

Game	vs.		Game	vs.
1	Denver	1-0	11	Phoenix	8-3
2	LA Clippers	2-0	12	Milwaukee	9-3
3	@ LA Clippers	3-0	13	@ San Antonio	9-4
4	Portland	4-0	14	@ Memphis	10-4
5	Oklahoma City	5-0	15	Chicago	11-4
6	@ NY Knicks	6-0	16	Memphis	12-4
7	@ Philadelphia	6-1	17	Sacramento	13-4
8	@ Washington	7-1	18	New Jersey	14-4
9	@ Charlotte	8-1	19	@ Sacramento	14-5
10	@ Cleveland	8-2	20	Miami	15-5

Sure, that's with the homer hat on, but I think that we will finally beat the Knicks in NY, and drop games against the Cavs on the road, and against the Suns, Spurs and Kings (in Sactown). This may be a conservative estimate, but after the first 20 games we very well should have around 15 wins!