If CP3 increases his AGP to 11.5 for the rest of the season, what will Deron need to average in order to win the Assist per game crown?
The New Orleans Hornets are 36-22, which adds up to 58 games played. There are 24 games left this season for the Hornets to play in. So far Chris Paul has played in 53 games, and has amassed 583 assists. I think he'll play in the rest of the games for his team, so . . . 24 games x 11.5 apg = 276 more assists. That would give Chris Paul a grand total of 859 assists in 77 games. His APG for the season would then be 11.1558.
The Jazz have played 60 games so far this season, and will only play 22 more. Deron Williams has played in 45 games, so his grand total of games will only be 67 this season. Right now he has 463 assists, and with his 45 games played so far, has an AGP of 10.3. In order to surpass CP3's projected number of 11.1558 Deron will need to considerably up his average. First we need to see how many total assists for the season Deron would need to get to beat 11.1558. He can play a max of 67 games this season, so 67 x 11.1559 = 747.4453 assists for the season. Let's round that up to 748 just to be safe. That would give Deron 11.1641 apg for the season. Next, we subtract the total he would need (748) from what he has now (463). This leaves Deron with 285 assists he needs to collect in 22 games. So for the rest of the season Deron needs to average 12.9545 to beat Chris Paul -- if CP actually increases his current rate of APG.
Nothing suggests that CP3 will increase his APG rate by that much (or that little), or if he will even maintain his current pace of 11.0 apg for the last 24 games. Deron was gunning for assists tonight and finished with 20 -- but he's going to have to look to score a little bit more down the stretch for the Jazz to beat some of the better teams. This type of play may work against Golden State, but it's not going to work against the Spurs or Lakers.
It'll be hard for D-Will to win the assist crown from CP3 this season, but it's not out of the way crazy. If CP finishes his last 24 games averaging 10.5 apg then Deron only needs to average 12 apg to win -- which is much more plausible.