Showing posts with label 6th Man. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 6th Man. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Looking at the Top five 6th men so far . . .

According to ESPN.com, or at least a poll on their website, the Top 5 sixth men candidates are:

  1. the LA Lakers' Lamar Odom,
  2. Chicago's Ben Gordon,
  3. Philly's Lou Williams,
  4. Portland's Rudy Fernandez
  5. and Utah's Andrei Kirilenko.

Predictably, as of right now, Odom is number one with 33% of the over 9,000 votes. Coming in second is Portland's rookie Fernandez at 26% of the vote. Next is AK-47 with 21%. Ben Gordon and Lou Williams round out the top 5 with 10% each. I think I've already made myself pretty clear when looking at how dumb some people are, so let's not even bother with the results of this vote. Let's, instead, look at how these guys are actually playing right now.

Player Lamar Odom Rudy Fernandez Andrei Kirilenko Ben Gordon Lou Williams
  Odom appears better than he actually is Rudy, like all Tblazers, comes with a lot of hype AK-47 is under the radar like the Jazz usually are Gordon is fantastic at scoring the ball, but doesn't do much else Lou is the worst of the bunch
Team LA Lakers Portland Trailblazers Utah Jazz Chicago Bulls Philadelphia 76ers
ESPN Vote 33% 26% 21% 10% 10%
MPG 26.0 27.0 32.7 26.8 23.0
Games 3 3 3 4 4
PPG 8.3 14.0 14.0 14.3 12.5
FG% 45.0% 48.3% 53.6% 41.3% 39.6%
3PT% 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% 43.8% 23.1%
FT% 77.9% 88.9% 73.3% 85.7% 69.2%
Shooting Worth * 1.25 1.45 1.50 1.24 1.04
Shooting Frequency ** 3.85 2.83 3.50 2.30 1.92
APG 2.33 1.33 3.00 3.00 2.50
A:TO 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.33 1.25
RPG 5.67 2.00 8.67 1.50 1.50
SPG 0.33 1.00 2.33 0.50 0.25
BPG 0.33 0.0 1.67 0.0 0.0
B+S/PF *** 0.33 1.00 1.71 0.29 0.33
PFPG 2.0 1.00 2.33 1.75 0.75
TOPG 1.67 0.67 2.00 2.25 2.0

N.B. These stats may look different than what you see on NBA.com or ESPN.com because these stats are not rounded to the tenth place, but the hundredth place -- they are derived from the total value over the number of games as usual, but to two decimal places. For example, ESPN.com rounds Lou Williams fouls per game to be 0.8, where as he has 3 fouls in 4 games, which is actually 0.75.

* Shooting worth was previous my erroneously named "points per shot" stat. This is derived by dividing the total number of points scored (not just from FGA, but also FTM) by how many total FGA the player has made. This 'worth' inflates the scores of players who get to the line and make their free throws, while penalizing players who need a lot of shots to score. The higher the number the better. For example: Lamar Odom has scored a total of 25 points (10+9+6) and shot the ball  20 (6+5+9) times. This is then 25/20, for a shooting worth of 1.25 points for each shot.

** Shooting frequency is what I used to call "shots per minute", which is wrong; this stat is how many minutes needed to take a shot. Or in plan English, "Player ______ shoots the ball every x number of minutes on the floor". The lower the number the more frequently the player shoots. Again, with Odom being the example he has shot the ball 20 times this season. He has played a total of 77 (29+23+25) minutes this season. Here we divide the total number of minutes played by how many shots were taken. In this case (77/20) we get 3.85. That means that Odom shoots the ball once every 3.85 minutes played. (or every 3:51, if you want to figure out how many seconds 0.85 minutes is). If we compare this to Kobe's shooting frequency (which is calculated out to 1.83 <-- 97 minutes played / 53 FGA) we can see that this is not a very high number at all.

*** Blocks + Steals / Personal Fouls is another "Amar stat" that is very easy to understand. It's simply the total number of blocks + the total number of steals all divided by the total number of personal fouls. [The equation is: (blocks + steals) / PF ] It's a stat that attempts to gauge how effectively a player gambles on defense by how often they are tagged for fouling. If you just stand there on defense you probably are not going to pick up a lot of fouls. If you try to go for steals, or challenge shots you have a higher chance of getting called for a foul. So in a way, this monitors activity on defense as a product of how well they avoid fouling. I'd love it if the NBA officially recorded deflections though . . . they don't. So this is the best I can do. The higher the number the better. So, using Odom as an example here: so far he has 1 block and 1 steal. He has fouled 6 total times this season (1+2+3). So this becomes 2 / 6, or 0.33. He has more fouls than steals and blocks combined. He may be playing good defense, but he's not recording defensive stats for it.

So yeah, it doesn't take a Rocket Surgeon, or John Hollinger, to figure out which one of these five guys is actually playing the best right now. It's Andrei Kirilenko who is 1st or 2nd in all the categories. But if you like Hollinger's PER stat, here are the breakdowns: Rudy Fernandez 24.66; Andrei Kirilenko 23.97; Ben Gordon 15.90; Lou Williams 15.66; Lamar Odom 12.49. The same size of 3 or 4 games is really small though, but right now it's an easy call. I will be watching this race as the season goes on though . . .

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

AK admits that shooting % will suffer off the bench

Andrei Kirilenko, I suppose, is like a method actor (specifically the Meisner technique). He has to really live his role 24/7, he needs to really get into it, in order to do well in it. I guess this explains why he spends so much time having difficulty adjusting between roles depending on where Jerry uses him. For example, back in 2005-2006 -- the first Boozer hamstring injury season -- AK had a bad pre-season, but when he had to end up playing PF because Booz when down, AK was back to his DeShawn/Arroyo days and produced accordingly.

I guess warming up is very important to him, and the more time between the shoot-around and the pre-game warm up till he plays is really going to screw things up for him. Or at least, that's what he suggests will happen. I'm sure it's a give and take between what he is used to and what he needs to do until his familiar with being the 6th man on an NBA team at this stage in his career. Then again, fellow Russian Pavlov would state that you can teach an old dog some new tricks . . . so I think AK will be fine in time.

Andrei ponders his next move
  Photographed by Danny Chan LA for the Salt Lake Tribune

"Kirilenko did acknowledge that his shooting might suffer if he has to wait seven minutes to check into a game. 'It is harder, but what I can do?' he said. 'Just go and warm up a little big better. I'm trying to do the same routine every time.' " (Kirilenko, via R. Siler, 2008)

That's the essence of conditioning, and when it becomes second nature to him (you know, bringing back the whole Meisner issue of repetition) he'll be able to produce better. I understand that he needs to 'see' a lot of shots go up (and go in) in order to feel offensively confident. He's just going to have to visualize a bit more, instead of having the advantage of going into the game warmed up.

Coming off the bench isn't easy, that's why so few players are actually known for being effective at it -- like the Microwave was. He got hot at the touch of a button, instantly. I think that's a mental component that our friendly neighborhood Russian may not have. I guess like most things this season, we're just going to have to see how it turns out.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Things to look for this season: Andrei Kirilenko

It's seems like it's Andrei Kirilenko day here at:All That Jazz

. . . or at least it does if you read this rant (basically Part 1 of what to look for from Andrei this season).

All ball Masha! How could you? No Melo, I know you're on defense right now, but I'm not going to let you shoot the ball for our team
  Blocking Yao Ming Using hair Gel Looking to dime

Speaking of which . . . what are the three things should we look for from AK-47 this season:

  1. Role Play: Being the 4th or 5th option on offense with the starters and standing around watching other guys play with the ball didn't really work for Andrei. His stats suggest that he "can" be the same guy, but it's hard when he's playing only 24 mpg, and in the time he's playing he doesn't get to see the ball except on shots that he blocks. Being more involved with the ball as one of the major cogs on offense for the bench is going to help quite a bit. I saw this one move from this preseason that had me absolutely drooling. Millsap posted up on his man and got the ball from Knight. Andrei's man went over to help and Millsap picked up his dribble. Andrei cut from the perimeter towards the basket and Millsap found him. Andrei sucked in all the defenders as he had a clear path to the basket -- and instead of shooting it he kicked it out to the right corner where Korver was all alone. Naturally, Korver buried the three point shot. Last season our bench had two plays: the Harpring curl (sometimes used for Korver instead), and the turn over. Having Andrei play with the bench is going to make our bench so much more dynamic. If the starters can tread water on defense for long enough when Andrei sits then our team can be quite good -- especially with a 6th man who can basically play starter minutes, defend and give you 14.5/6/5/2/2 in that time.
  2. Be a glue guy off the bench: Andrei explained that when he gets to watch the game develop he can take note of things that are happening right on the floor, and stuff that isn't going so right as well. When he comes in he can try to help fill the gap of whatever was missing. (Most likely it's going to be defense, but hey, call me a cynic) Coming off the bench is going to be really good for him as the 2nd quarter usually starts off as a time for Harpring to have the green light to shoot. Andrei's points were down the last few seasons because he just plan stopped shooting the ball. The last five seasons have gone from 11.9 fga as an All-Star to 10.2 fga, 10.6 fga, then 6 fga and last season 7.6 fga. I don't think Andrei needs to be shooting over 10 times a game, but when he shot around 9 times a game he ends up scoring 14 points or so. Supplanting Harpring at this juncture may allow him to shoot if a bit more. However, my concept of glue guy doesn't mean shooting the ball all the time -- it's just that being on the floor with less talented offensive players may mean that coach calls his number a bit more often.  Knowing Andrei, if Sloan drew up a play for him to shoot, he'd probably find a way to pass off the shot to someone else anyway. Still -- Andrei's versatility may work to everyone's advantage as a glue guy, instead of a guy who is more talented than Battier being forced into playing a Battier like role with the starters.
  3. Expect the unexpected: This could mean a variety of things . . . I fully expect Andrei to throw some really crazy passes this season. Having him handle the ball more with the 2nd unit and pass to guys who he doesn't get to play with a lot is going to result in some really spectacular early season turn overs. This could also mean that Andrei -- him, and not the fans -- should expect the unexpected. Harpring is gingerly participating in shooting drills now, and as I mentioned previously, the main reason why AK is going to the bench is to replace the heady play of veteran shooter Matt Harpring. What happens when Harpring comes back? Jerry Sloan already talked about how Harpring doesn't need to participate in pre-season because he knows his role and what 'we' are trying to do here. What if the starting frontcourt gets clobbered on defense without AK watching their back? The whole AK as a super 6th man concept may end before the honeymoon period of having him anchor the 2nd unit does! We may see Andrei back in the starting line-up before we know it.

Personally I don't really care, after developing a massive migraine looking at over 250 games I can say that he just needs to play 35+ mpg to be awesome. The last two seasons he played 29 and 30 mpg. He also wasn't awesome. Three seasons ago he played 37 mpg, and got 15/8/4/3 and 1.5 steals per game. Five seasons ago he played 37 mpg and was an All-Star. Doesn't take a genius, or a 70 million year old coach, to figure it out.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Larry H. Miller talks about AK off the bench

1320 KFan's David Locke talked with team owner, and Utah Icon, Larry H. Miller back on October 16th; and among the things they talked about they discussed the whole Andrei off the bench deal. Particularly interesting (to me) was the point that David Locke believes that Andrei really does need to be involved on offense in order to stay hungry on defense -- and that Sloan should probably put Andrei in a situation where that can happen. Perhaps being 'The Man' of the bench unit will afford Kirilenko more ball handling and creating opportunities. Larry H. Miller adds that Jerry Sloan is still learning, and feels like he needs to learn to put players where their talents are instead of trying to shoe horn players to fit a specific mold.

Raja Bell says hi to his former boss AK in a red summit The Microwave
Photographed by Jason Olson for Deseret News Photographed by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by Tim DeFrisco for unknown

Both appear to be cautiously optimistic about this possibility, as are most of the Utah Jazz fans out there on message boards, and on blogs all over the Internet. Miller gets a chance to show off some of his knowledge of NBA History and suggests that it would greatly help the Jazz if they had a guy who can produce right off the bench like The Microwave (Vinnie Johnson). AK isn't going to be that type of guy who'll just start jacking shots, but he can bring energy right off the bench and make plays. Miller says that AK just really wants to win, and as a result, he'll do what is needed to win. (You know, as long as he's playing 30 minutes a game)

Click here for the podcast, and the Jazz talk really starts from 3:41 and goes onwards till around 8:54.