Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer 6th best Backcourt in NBA ?

There are some really good tandems out there in the NBA right now. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobili along with Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen obviously comprise championship caliber backcourts. Mike Bibby paired up with Joe Johnson causes all kinds of trouble for defenders – similarly Steve Nash and Jason Richardson can flat out make defenders look silly. Even hypothetically amazing backcourts will assemble this season, like in Portland with Andre Miller and Brandon Roy, and down in Orlando with Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter. These are all great backcourts in paper, but just where does Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer rank among them? Justin DeFeo, of Sir Charles in Charge, states that the Jazz tandem is clearly a Top 10 backcourt in the league – 6th specifically – and one where both players “compliment each other well,” (DeFeo, 2009, ¶13). He continues to say that:

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Williams is the do it all point guard and has the ball in his hands often, so he needs to be paired with a shooting guard who can do other things (defend, rebound) and create opportunities for himself without the ball (steals, loose balls, offensive rebounds) and thats (sic) the type of game Brewer has.

This is high praise, and I fully appreciate someone else noticing that while Deron isn’t a classic point guard, and Brewer surely is not a classic shooting guard (isn’t he just a SF who defends the other teams’ best perimeter scorer?), that together they are a pretty good team. Let’s go over some of the ways in which they do compliment each other:

Offense:

Deron dominates the ball on offense. Some teams have some sort of ball-sharing provision between the PG and the SG (like how Brandon Roy basically had to do everything himself in Portland). This has never been the case in Utah, not in Stockton’s time, and not now. Deron has a very solid handle on the ball and is able to maneuver himself into the lane with or without help from screens. Williams does this not with simple blinding speed, or a series of picks from teammates, he uses power and finesse to go from point A to point B, going over any and all terrain in the process. He has all the moves, and can get into the lane whenever he wants. (Essentially, he’s a swashbuckler with a basketball in his hands) He’s not just a PG who will bring the ball up the floor, hang out at the three point line, and pass the ball to someone to start a play. Deron’s penetration allows for defenders to shift their attention from the man they are guarding to Deron Williams (who is a scoring threat in the lane). This shifted attention allows for guys who move well without the ball to find open spots (often in their defender’s blindspots) and be in scoring position. If Deron Williams is daring swashbuckler who can move with a quickness and body control that belie his physique then Ronnie Brewer is the stealthy assassin who moves in the shadows, unaccounted for, with muscles tensed up for a finishing strike. It happens again, and again and again. Ideally, a drive and dish PG would be paired with a guy who had a reliable outside shot – but at best, a three pointer is a 40% success rate, while dunks are, generally speaking, much, much more effective.

Deron is a capable three point shooter – though his percentage has been a roller coaster his entire NBA career (42%, then 32%, then 40%, then 31%), and if he’s the only one of the two with an outside shot you can clearly see a deficiency in that department for this backcourt tandem. (By comparison, LA, Orlando, Atlanta and a few other teams on DeFeo’s list are replete with guys who can absolutely bomb from outside)

This group is just as adept in halfcourt sets as they are on the break. Utah produces a lot of deflections and Brewer starts as many breaks (with his natural quickness and 6’11 wingspan) as he is capable of finishing (with his 42” vertical). Deron hardly ever makes the wrong decision on who to pass to, and the two (naturally) hook up for Alley-Oops more frequently than any Utah tandem since Mark Jackson played here. Offensively, the two are nearly a match made in heaven.

Defense:

If Deron is the leader on Offense, Ronnie is the leader on Defense. Brewer starts the game off checking the other teams’ best scoring wing – regardless if he is a shooter or slasher or whatever. Ronnie gets the call until AK gets off the bench. If the last few playoffs are an indication – few players play better man defense (without fouling) on Kobe Bryant than Brewer does. In no way am I suggesting that Brewer shuts Kobe down, I’m just saying that he plays good man defense. Many times I’ve seen Kobe take shots that absolutely could not have been defended better without the aid of being allowed to do Bruce Bowen style fouling, and still make them over Ronnie. Kobe just makes amazing shots – and he’s had quite a few against Brewer. Brewer is more than just a speed bump on defense. His long arms, quickness and penchant for playing the passing lanes made him one of the league leaders in steals last season. He’s long enough, with good enough hops that I would expect him to get more ‘from behind’ LeBron style blocks this season though. While Brewer is a physical freak, his defensive instincts lead the way – and that’s usually towards pressuring the other team into making a mistake.

Deron does not get all the flashy steals that Brewer does, but he is quick enough on defense to stay with faster ball handlers, and just big and physical enough to discourage them from driving too much. (Just look at how the, honestly, best PG in the NBA, Chris Paul, is so taken out of his game whenever he plays Deron. CP3 owns everyone, and he is rightfully the best PG in the league right now. Deron is just the perfect storm on defense to give him trouble, and good enough on offense to tire him out there) If the first foundation for team defense is to slow down the other team’s ball handler / forward progression, then it’s obvious that Deron Williams is a very solid defender.

Together they comprise a physical, long defensive backcourt. Brewer is 6’7 with the previously mentioned 6’11 wingspan and the quickness of a man much smaller than he. Deron is a 6’3 point guard who was a wrestler in high school and deceptively quick. (check out his draft combine scores, you’ll be surprised) If anything, I think that they are better on defense than they are on offense!

What do the Stats Say:

I’m a stats junkie. So this is important to me. Also, I guess I’m debuting my new stats format. If you want to know about what some of these things are, you can always read my treatise on my own created stats. If you don’t want to, just wait for the analysis that will appear below.

Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer

First of all, for those of you following along at home, I have changed the GO Rating, and expect a new post about the New formula shortly. What you need to know about it is what these scores mean. The GO Rating incorporates all possible statistically tracked outcomes on offense, hence the full name of “Gestalt Offense”. The GO Rating is in light blue, all the things in the light blue cell background are my own invented stats. I think they better round out what you see. Anyway . . . what is a good GO Rating? I depends on what you are looking for. If you are a point guard it’s hard to be upset if you get a rating in the 130’s. Magic Johnson’s regular season career totals calculate to a GO Rating of 138.784. Allen Iverson’s GO Rating for the same category (career regular season stats) is 134.883. Deron gets 135.701 for his work last season – though shortened by injury, arguably his best season ever. As a further point of reference, Gary Payton’s career GO Rating is 88.882, that’s almost 50 points lower than Deron. Brewer’s rating is much lower, but that’s due to a few major factors. Firstly, wing players who do not take many shots (see shooting frequency, the higher the number the more time it takes to get a shot off) hardly ever do well. Scottie Pippen’s GO Rating for his career regular season stats stands at only 71.431. As solid as Pip was offensively, Brewer is nearly there in his 3rd season in the NBA. That’s not too shabby.

Again, the stats don’t lie when they show how poorly they are as a team when it comes to three point shooting. They make up for it with stellar eField Goal percentages (which I think are more important than just FG% and 3PT%). They both shoot better than average, when it comes to their shooting worth (average being 1.2). Offensively they are very competent getting to the line a combined 10 times a game and averaging over 30 points between the two, while dishing the ball with a good Assists to Turn over ratio. Offensively they put up quite solid stats, and I feel like they are even better defensively. Of course, defensive stats are pretty much useless, so take these with a grain of salt. (if you want more on that rant, read my treatise, linked above)

These guys don’t usually get called for fouls, so that’s pretty good. What is even better is that both of them come out on the positive side of their defensive gambling – Brewer especially makes very smart gambles on defense: effectively getting 2 steals for each fouls he commits. If he was to gamble defensively at that rate he would foul out with nearly 8 steals a game. (For those watching him closely know that he got 6 steals in a recent USA Select team scrimmage) Deron still manages over a steal per game as well, and his primary duty is to man up on his guy, and not actually go for steals. Neither of them block worth a damn – though Brewer should get more in my opinion. Both of their pure hustle ratings clearly fall below that of the Dream Team members, but exist within an acceptable range for starters in today’s NBA. These defensive statistics are not overwhelming – but I don’t put much stock in defensive stats at all. The best defense causes no effect on an individual’s boxscore; if you defend a guy so well that he takes shot he can’t make then you get nothing, except the satisfaction of playing good defense. These two guys are good defensive players – but Brewer gambles more and gets more steals – and it shows.

Conclusion:

Some statistics are worth more than others, and I’d put my money on the offensive ones actually relating to actually being good at playing. That said, Deron and Ronnie are a better defensive tandem than offensively, where their weaknesses are more exposed. (Weaknesses being that neither of them shot over 35% from three last year; as a unit they do not produce much from deep per game; they both do not jack up shots frequently (jacking up shots gives you a better Shooting Frequency and GO Rating for some reason); and so forth) Other guard tandems will score more points per game, and probably get to the free throw line more times per game. There will always be a better offensive tandem around. Collectively Ronnie and Deron make up a better defensive force, and have the talent and ability to get better (they are both closer to 20 than 30 – guys like Kobe, Fish, Vince, Nash, J-Kidd and others are getting up there and aren’t going to be as good in the next few seasons). They can be a Top 5 starting backcourt in the NBA, but they just aren’t quite there yet. I agree with DeFeo’s rankings and thank him for posting this in the first place!

P.S. Thanks to J.E.Skeets for the Ball Don’t Lie link directing me to DeFeo’s post!

So . . . I was right about Ronnie Price

If you aren’t on twitter, then this is news: the Jazz are going to be bringing back Ronnie Price. (also confirmed by 1320 KFAN by txt message and via Twitter and the PR department of the Utah Jazz, via Twitter) Of course, this was a mere formality after Sloan was talking about Price in post draft interviews about Eric Maynor. But really, you didn’t need that either – you just needed to listen to me all along. So, last off-season the Jazz traded Hart for Knight, and by doing so, put themselves in a position where they would end up evaluating two guys for one spot all season long – with the final prize being a contract. I’m sure it must have been a crazy year for both Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight, playing against each other all season long fighting for playing time, both in the last year of expiring contracts.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008 (an excerpt)

Things to look for this season: Brevin Knight

Posted by Amar at 1:30 PM

“. . . More playing time at PG than Ronnie Price: That doesn't mean that Price isn't going to get playing time this season -- he may very well beat out Knight as the season goes on -- but over all Knight is going to get more playing time at the PG than Price will . . . ”

Thursday, October 16, 2008 (an excerpt)

Things to look for this season: Ronnie Price

Posted by Amar at 11:58 PM

“. . . If you haven't been following Ronnie Price's career, this is pretty much his own version of Sisyphus' challenge. His entire career he's had to make a living by beating other guys out for playing time. He did it two years ago in Sacramento (beating Jason Hart out). He did it last year in Utah (again beating Jason Hart out). And he's basically going to have to do it a 3rd year in a row, having to attempt to beat out Jason Hart the guy they traded Jason Hart for (Brevin Knight). Brevin also being in a contract year makes this even 'better', in terms of entertainment value. They are in direct competition with each other for this season -- and the next ones too! The only way to make things a little bit harder for Price would be if his coach decides 'just for fun' (in that exaggerated East Indian accent that Russell Peters has sometimes) to stop playing him at point guard -- and have him fight for playing time against 4 shooting guards (Brewer, Korver, Miles and Almond). Sounds dumb, right? Sounds even better from Jerry's own mouth [Interview, around the 1:54 to 4:13 mark, via 1320 KFAN]. For the record though, he does compliment Price as well during that answer, and suggests that his versatility allows him to play alongside Knight for a really small, quick line-up.

Basically, then, all Ronnie Price has to do is beat out Knight, and his future here in Utah will be secure, well it should be, right Mo Williams? Price has some advantages though, as he's been here last season, won the job, and played in every playoff game. Furthermore, he's a popular guy (in that younger crew with Millsap, Brewer and Miles) and the Jazz went 43-18 in games that he played in. That's winning 70.5 % of those games -- good enough for a 58 win season over 82 games. Here are three things to look out for this season from Ronnie Price:

 

Hustle every minute on the floor: Deron Williams plays so much point guard that there is very little time remaining for the other guys. There's going to be 8-12 minutes per game available by my estimation, and that's not nearly enough to play all three guys every game. What Price will do is hustle and play very hard in whatever time he has. Brevin Knight isn't going to jump up there and slam down alley-oops, or run back and block guys on fast breaks. Those are the types of plays that'll help get Price another contract with the Jazz -- especially if he plays within the offense and runs the team well.

 

Be available (and healthy) to play in 80+ games: Knight gets injured every year. He's never played over 80 games and whatever slim window of playing time exists has to be maximized by Price. Price needs to be available every game to go in and give Deron a breather. Especially in the cases where Knight is going to be injured and unavailable to play. It sounds simple, but it makes sense. One easy way to distinguish himself from his competition is be healthy. Coach is going to go with the guys on the roster who can play. Sometimes it doesn't have to be complicated. Knight averages 59 games played a season over his career. There is a window of opportunity for Price here, even if it's not wide open.

 

Eventually beat out Brevin Knight: I'm going to come out and say it -- there are going to be some situations all year where one of the two guys is going to get to play, and the other guy will sit. There will be situations where one guy is favored to play over the other (match-ups, etc). Also, there could be some times on the court where they both play at the same time. Out of all of those situations I think that the veteran leadership of Brevin Knight is going to be a stabilizing force for our team. I just can't bet against Ronnie Price. He's a smaller, scrappy guard who has three point range and has been in this situation before. Knight is smaller, scrappier, and much better than Jason Hart (the guy Price used to beat out each of those previous times), but I think Price has more fight in him. If Knight gets decked by Turiaf I see him on the floor for a while. Price got decked and was ready to fight. It's probably this fight that's going to win him the job sometime after the All-Star Break. . .”

Price eventually did win out, it appears, but thanks to Brevin Knight for being there. He was instrumental in our team starting the seasons on a 5-0 run, but just did not get it going after that. It’s a shame really, because I think we all expected more out of him. Alas, he’ll be looking to play somewhere else next season. Kevin O’Connor (GM): “Keeping Ronnie on our roster was important to us. He is someone who knows our system and has proven capable of stepping in whenever called upon. Over the last two seasons he has shown a commitment to working hard and improving his game, and as a result, we expect his growth to continue.” Randy Rigby (Utah Jazz President): “Ronnie Price is the consummate professional. He is always prepared when Coach Sloan calls on him and we are looking forward to his energy and toughness next season.” “The Utah Jazz announced today that the team has re-signed guard Ronnie Price.  Per team policy, terms of the deal were not released.” (The Utah Jazz, July 14, 2009) If you don’t recall, Price did not get a chance to play massive minutes in the playoffs this season, which is in stark contrast to last season’s playoffs. But in the time that he did play, he played with energy, hustle, fire and without fear. That’s the type of player I want on the court when we’re on the wrong side of an elimination game. And that’s exactly the type of player the Jazz have in Price.

Brevin Knight had a really good 4th quarter

It's "only" the preseason, and it was probably against bench guys, but Brevin Knight had 2 points, 7 assists and 4 steals in the 4th quarter. It was so good that the SL Trib even got off of their "214 best Jazz players ever" article kick to write about it. If you followed the game (I did not), or read the play-by-play than you can clearly see Knight developing some consistency and experience working with several of our key bench guys (Korver, Millsap and Kirilenko). I think that's pretty necessary as he has to pick all of the nuances of running our offense with our guys as soon as possible. Furthermore, I think he's doing a pretty good job if this game (his first real game without injury) is any indication.

The following is from the play-by-play of the 4th quarter that's up on ESPN's website:

Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

• [11:06] Kyle Korver makes jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 78 - Utah 75
• [9:06] Brevin Knight defensive rebound -- Portland 79 - Utah 78
• [8:57] Kyle Korver makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 79 - Utah 81
• [8:27] Brevin Knight misses layup -- Portland 79 - Utah 81
• [7:50] Kyle Korver makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 79 - Utah 84
• [6:58] Andrei Kirilenko makes two point shot (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 81 - Utah 87
• [4:18] Kosta Koufos makes 18-foot jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 87 - Utah 92
• [3:55] Jerryd Bayless lost ball (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 87 - Utah 92
• [3:28] Shavlik Randolph lost ball (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 87 - Utah 94
• [3:06] Paul Millsap makes 18-foot jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 87 - Utah 96
• [2:35] Kosta Koufos makes slam dunk (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 87 - Utah 98
• [1:39] Jerryd Bayless lost ball (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 89 - Utah 98
• [1:08] Rudy Fernandez bad pass (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 89 - Utah 98
• [0:35] Brevin Knight makes 9-foot running jumper -- Portland 89 - Utah 100

If this game happened in the regular season, and on the road, then the Mayor of Portland would have almost be forced to give Brevin Knight the key to the city . . . but there really would have been no need as Knight would have probably swiped it already. I think I like Knight playing with this group better as he's a pure point guard in that pass first mold. When you have Korver on the floor it's probably best to have a pass first guard anyway. Also a pass first guard is able to lead marginal offensive talents to the right spots where they can score. I don't really conceptualize Price being able to help get Kosta Koufos dunks, but I could be wrong about that.

I also appreciate how Knight isn't against throwing the lob pass to AK going for alley-oops. This is something that Andrei used to get a lot of back when he was playing 37 mpg and an All-Star. It really started with Mark Jackson passing the rock to AK when AK first began to score big points in some games. (And there once was a time where he used to be getting 20 like nothing) In past seasons AK hasn't been getting the rock from his PGs, and he's being passed over for receiving alley-oops in favor of Deron throwing it to Brewer instead. Astute Jazz fans may remember that the Jackson to Kirilenko oop was very successful and caught a lot of team off guard. The Knight to Kirilenko oop seems to be doing that -- all the while making Andrei feel more involved in the offense.

Knight is a stabilizing force for the 2nd unit, much like I theorized. This is very true on offense, but even more so on defense. You don't usually luck into 4 steals to close out a game . . . I'm sure part of it would have to deal with his pressure defense against younger players. If we're going to hold off the young Portland Trailblazers it would serve us well to have a cagey vet who can strip them of their pride as often as he strips them of the ball.

YouTube Tuesdays! The Price is Right

Ronnie Price Alley Oop Dunk [0.28] by freedo50 -- Not much build up for this one, just a great deflection by Ronnie Price, resulting in a steal by Ronnie Brewer, and the ensuing Alley-Oop during one of the regular Utah Jazz beatdowns that they give to their Northwest Division Rivals, the Nuggets. Great job Ronnie x2! The "best" part is Carmelo's reaction at the end . . . at least after swiping this time he didn't run away to the other side of the court to hide behind Nene again.