Things to look for this season: Matt Harpring

Love him or hate him, we can all be pretty secure in the knowledge that when (not "if") Matt gets back off the IR, that he's going to play at least 10 mpg at small forward for the rest of the season [Unless Ceejay levels up a few times while Matty is out and becomes a real NBA Starter, of course, but I'm not going to hold my breath]. I could go on and make this a very short post, but I think Matty deserves better.

Like so many other players (Mark Eaton, Thurl Bailey, Jeff Malone, David Benoit, Donyell Marshall, etc), his best years were playing off of Stockton and Malone -- but those years were almost a lifetime ago. In my mind he is now probably best suited as a 'life coach' for our younger players . . . if they could adopt his work ethic then I think we'll be sitting pretty at the center spot in a few seasons. That said: he is still useful on the court. Before you leave this website forever let me further explain what I mean. Harpring is a physical three who rebounds well for his position and doesn't back down from anyone. In recent seasons he's been a thorn in the side of everyone from Carmelo Anthony to Ron Artest. Guys like Korver, Miles and Almond are just not going to be able to make Ron Artest get ejected or take 'Melo out of his game. He's useful in specific situations, especially because we do not have anyone who can replace what he gives on the 'toughness' angle just yet. [I highly recommend this uploaded video by xunlucky17x]

That does not mean I think he needs to be playing big minutes, but he's a special type of player that is useful in certain situations. He's like your 2nd string fullback in American football -- he may not be the starter, or useful in all situations, but on a 3rd and short he's going to get the job done. If you put Harp out there to muscle up against another physical small forward then he is actually useful.

If the other team isn't using a physical small forward then don't put Harpring in the game. Simple as that. Why? Well, for starters: statistically he is getting worse, his shooting range seems to be positively correlated with my shrinking hair line. Back in the early 2000's Harpring could hit threes and I had a full head of hair. Now Harpring misses layups and I have to comb my hair down. It's a sad time for both of us. You don't want to have Harpring on the floor unless you really need to have him on the floor. (Especially when we're close to a title and need to have our younger guys be developed now rather than later) If you need any other reason why you don't want him on the floor just ask yourself if you think Harpring is quick enough to defend any perimeter small forwards any more. The answer is, of course, no.

Harp will not let go of playing time without a fight, just like he wont let go of this ball unless he gets to keep Luke Ridnour's forearm as a prize.	Click on the image to make it bigger

Here's a chart that (tries to) depict how many games Matty has played in each of the 6 seasons that he's been with the Utah Jazz. [This is the dark blue bar] This chart also (tries to) depict how many minutes he plays per game.[This is the light blue bar] As you can see he usually plays over 70 games per season (he has averaged 75.5 games per season in the last four seasons). He played 36.6 minutes per game back in 2003-2004 -- his most as a Jazz player -- but since then there's been quite a decline which corresponds with accumulated injuries and advancing age.

If you've done the math (and I have, if you want I can e-mail you the spread sheet) over the last four seasons (from age 28 to 31) his minutes per game has been going down by (on average) 4.625 mpg in each successive season. [Data: -3.5 between 2002-2003 and 2003-2004; -5.7 between 2003-2004 and 2004-2005; -1.9 between 2004-2005 and 2005-2006; and -7.4 between 2006-2007 and last season, 2007-2008] For you math geeks out there who remember their y=mx +b and slope = y2-y1 / x2-x1 formulas the average rate of declined MPG (in this case, -4.625) is also equal to the slope if you use the points (2, 36.6) and (6, 18.1).

If you extrapolate this to the next season, this current season (2008-2009), then you get 18.1 - 4.625 . . . or 13.475 mpg. I could live with Harpring playing 13.5 mpg this season, I'd be happier with 12, but I'll take what I can get. It remains to be seen if his playing time decline is going to be so linear . . . he may very well just play in under 70 games this season, but in those games play closer to 20 mpg for all I know. All of this gobble-dee-gook aside, what three things can we look for this season from Matt Harpring?

1. He's not going to be rushed back: The Jazz have enough wings to weather the storm until he comes back to "anchor" the 2nd unit with his veteran play. (Anchor, as in, he brings the play down, check out his +/- stats sometime, 4th worst on the team last season) In as way, his injury has come at a good time when Sloan is more open to trying out different line-ups and open to developing his young talent. We've already seen C.J. Miles take the starting role while AK supplants Harpring and the key bench veteran. Matt Harpring's current injury is the main reason why Jerry Sloan has had to change up the line up this off-season. (Sure, Deron's injury is an acute issue right now, but the line up was changed before he got injured) You can be sure that when he comes back that Jerry Sloan will shuffle things all over again. Right now AK is being put in the veteran off the bench role that our second unit really needs for stability. This is usually Harpring's role, and I can easily see Jerry Sloan immediately revert to putting AK at the 3 in the starting line up after Harpring is back. Though, Jerry does some funny things time to time, like how in 2005-2006 to finish the season Memo was the starting 4, and Carlos was the 5, because Memo had been playing the 4 most of the season while Carlos was on the injured reserve. I can't really predict what's going to happen when Harpring gets back, but I know that he's going to play. He's not going to give up playing time without a fight either. Thankfully, there is no current time table for his return, so we're not going to see him for a while.
2. Frustrate the fans: Some fans are going to complain that when he comes back that he still plays too many minutes. Some will complain that he's not playing enough and that "we need his _____" (defense, rebounding, toughness, scoring, veteran play, hustle, flops, crew cut, fouls, whiteness ?). Both sides are not going to be placated until he retires from the NBA and joins the Georgia High school Football Hall of Fame. (Apparently there is such a thing, and here's Harpring's high school team's record) He's one of the most divisive players in Utah Jazz history, and part of the reason stems from the fact that many fans would rather develop his eventual replacement instead of keep giving a guy all these minutes as he breaks down every season. (Jazz career average for games played per season: 68.5) He's injured right now, and there's no time table for his return -- so the "sit Harpring" contingent will have an undisclosed amount of time to sit Harpring all they want. To be clear, I think I fall neatly in that contingent as well, but I don't think that it's time to take him out behind the barn and shoot him yet. (That's next season...)
3. Continue to play physical, smash-mouth basketball: If the Jazz are in the playoffs, he is going to play in them. I don't know when his immune system is going to be back online, but I can empathize with him as I've been a little sick lately. When he does come back, I feel bad for the forwards that'll match up with him when he's finally been given the green light to play at full velocity. (Speed just isn't a strong enough word to describe his game) He only knows how to play the game one way, and you can be sure that he'll be a force to be reckoned with when he's on the court this season. (Just a force for which team, ours or theirs, remains to be seen) If we have to face a team with a physical small forward in the playoffs I can see him getting a lot more burn than 10-14 mpg like he will this regular season. I'm pretty sure that he can rattle a guy like Artest if they face off against each other in the playoffs.

I don't know when he's going to play for us, but it's a safe bet that the Jazz may start off by watching his minutes very closely. This may contribute to continuing a downward trend in minutes played per game for Matt, and as a 32 year old with the knees of a 45 year old, I'm sure his body (if not his mind) will appreciate it. Now only if he can continue to teach the younglings (Kosta and Kyrylo) how to throw their body around and play physical like he has all these years . . .

Depth Perception: Power Forward

The NBA game is a dynamic game where over time, the nature and necessity of different positions have changed. Conventional ideas suggest that you need one really good ball handler, one really tall guy to prevent teams from getting easy stuff inside, one guy who is really good at shooting, one guy who is really versatile, and one guy to do all the dirty work. It's easy to see this being the ever popular PG, C, SG, SF and PF concept of a team. Some positions are obviously more important than others -- every good team needs a competent PG on offense to runs things. Similarly, teams without someone who can score usually lose a lot (a talented SG or SF is absolutely necessary). Some teams prefer to do things inside out, and thus, a good C is often a road to the title (Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, Mikan, etc). That said, these positions have changed quite a bit over time.

Previously the point guard was just the guy who could beat the press, drive, and dish to the right guy at the right time. Individuals like Bob Cousy and John Stockton clearly displayed this pass first motive. Other, arguably more flashy and talented lead guards took upon the concept of being a complete player, and endeavored to score more frequently -- while still passing the ball and being the primary ball handler. Isiah Thomas was one of the best at this -- but surely not the only one to bring a balanced offensive attack from the PG spot.

Another spot on the floor that has changed over time was the power forward spot. For the longest time it was dominated by beefy characters who could bang, play defense, get boards, and get out of the way on offense. Individual talents like Bob Pettit and others tried to bring scoring into the fold; though guys like Maurice Lucas / Kermit Washington always seemed to find a home in the NBA being lunch-pail types at the 4. The evolution of the power forward took a quantum leap forward with Elgin Baylor -- a superb scorer par excellence. Elvin Hayes brought the toughness, but the examples of these individuals and Charles Barkley, Karl Malone and Chris Webber pointed out that it was really difficult to win the NBA title by focusing on a power forward.

Kevin Garnett won a title with the Boston Celtics as a top level power forward; however he was far from the primary offensive force for his club. Tim Duncan has won quite a few titles as a power forward; though one gets the feeling that had he been drafted by a club that was bereft of a David Robinson type that he would never have played there.

Today most teams look to the 4 spot to contribute on the glass and with defense -- like always; but now expectations for power forwards to score a bit more have been raised. Not many power forwards are known for being great shot blockers, though some exceptions to the rule exist. Most surprisingly the evolution of the power forward has branched out into seemingly different species as the needs of teams have changed.

Jason Maxiell is a power forward and so is Vladimir Radmanovic. The only similarities that these two guys seem to have is their heights, and that their talents are so focused that they are not capable of playing the three or the five. In some respects, the four spot is the utility spot. If you need extra athleticism, start Josh Smith there. If you need shot blocking, you've got Elton Brand. Shooting skills are easily found with Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki. Lamar Odom is a fantastic passer who has a great handle for a power forward. That said, which team is the best equipped (as far as the current make up of teams exist today) at Power Forward?

Atlantic Division:

Boston Celtics	New Jersey Nets	New York Knicks	Philadelphia 76ers	Toronto Raptors
Kevin Garnett	Yi Jianlian	Zach Randolph	Elton Brand	Chris Bosh
Glen Davis	Eduardo Najera	David Lee	Reggie Evans	Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins	Stromile Swift	Wilson Chandler	Marreese Speights	Andrea Bargnani
Brian Scalabrine	Sean Williams	Malik Rose	Jason Smith	Kris Humphries
	Josh Boone	Jared Jeffries		Nathan Jawai

Boston is anchored by KG and it quickly goes downhill from there. Big Baby, Perk (shifting over from the 5)and Scal are all bangers, and there is no real versatility here. New Jersey sports average talent in a number of bodies, Yi has the upside, Najera is a scrappy player, Stromile can sky in for dunks, Boone is a disappointment and Sean Williams (more of a true center) blocks shots. The Knicks manage to have both talent and depth -- Zach is a 20-10 guy when he wants to be, David Lee never gets tired, Jeffries is very versatile and Rose and Chandler are on opposite sides of the age/experience spectrum. Philly is interesting because they have Brand, who is a top level PF, and is backed by other bangers who can be rotation guys on almost every team. Evans and Evans Jr. (Speights) may seem a bit redundant, however Smith can shoot it well enough to give Philly an edge over the Knicks or the Nets. Toronto, though, is the class of the Atlantic when it comes to their power forwards. Chris Bosh is very underrated, he can do everything from hit game winning threes, to running up and down the court to block shots, and he makes all of his free throws. Behind him there is Bargnani (who will bounce back) and has unlimited range for a 4, Humphries hustles and bangs and rookie Jawai can play the 5 or the 4. Then there is Jermaine O'Neal who is a heck of a talent who does many things well. The Raptors have good defenders in Bosh and O'Neal, scrappy energy types like Humphries and Jawai and a very deadly outside shooter in Bargnani. All of these guys are tall, Jawai is the shortest, and he's only 6'10.

Winners:	Toronto	Raptors
Chris Bosh	Jermaine O'Neal	Andrea Bargnani	Kris Humphries	Nathan Jawai

Central Division:

Chicago Bulls	Cleveland Cavaliers	Detroit Pistons	Indiana Pacers	Milwaukee Bucks
Drew Gooden	Ben Wallace	Antonio McDyess	Troy Murphy	Charlie Villanueva
Tyrus Thomas	Anderson Varejao	Jason Maxiell	Josh McRoberts	Joe Alexander
Andres Nocioni	LeBron James	Rasheed Wallace	Shawne Williams	Malik Allen
Joakim Noah	JJ Hickson	Amir Johnson	Maceo Baston	Luc Mbah a Moute
Cedric Simmons		Walter Herrmann	Jeff Foster	Dan Gadzuric

Chicago has quite a bit of talent here. Gooden is gooden enough to be a 15/10 guy with enough playing time, Tyrus has prime time athleticism, Nocioni is a heady player who can rebound, pass and shoot the ball, Noah (a center) can slide over and be a Tyrus clone, and Simmons shows a lot of potential as well. Cleveland is a special case, as they start Ben Wallace there, who while a shell of his former self, can still be counted on to at least intimidate. I don't know anything about JJ Hickson (or Lance Allred), but I know that Anderson Varejao can slide over from the 5 to play some 4. Cleveland really sucks at the 4, save for the fact that if they needed (or wanted) to, they could plop LeBron down here, and they'd be quite okay. Detroit has a good mix of veteran savvy (McDyess), tenacity (Maxiell), shot blocking and outside shooting (Wallace), a utility man (Herrmann) and potential (Johnson). Depending on the situation, Detroit has a variety of guys they can go to at the 4. Chicago (save for Nocioni) only has guys with limited ability outside of the paint. I am giving the edge to Detroit here. Indiana is the opposite of Chicago. they are all guys who are better outside of the paint than inside. Milwaukee is like the Nets, in that they have the ability to show a lot of different things at the 4, but they are all pretty average to poor. Detroit wins!

Winners:	Detroit	Pistons
Rasheed Wallace	Jason Maxiell	Antonio McDyess	Amir Johnson	Walter Herrmann

Southeast Division:

Atlanta Hawks	Charlotte Bobcats	Miami Heat	Orlando Magic	Washington Wizards
Josh Smith	Emeka Okafor	Udonis Haslem	Rashard Lewis	Antawn Jamison
Al Horford	Gerald Wallace	Michael Beasley	Hidayet Turkoglu	Oleksiy Pecherov
Solomon Jones	Jared Dudley	Shawn Marion	Brian Cook	Darius Songaila
Randolph Morris	Sean May	Joel Anthony	Tony Battie
	Alexis Ajinca	David Padgett	Marcin Gortat

Atlanta is exciting with younger players like the hyper athletic Josh Smith and center worthy Al Horford. Aside from those two guys it's pretty much useless. Horford should play more center anyway, so it's pretty much just Josh Smith. He's a good player, but his limitations are obvious. The Bobcats are much more deep and versatile. Okafor is a defensive stalwart who is getting better offensively. Gerald Wallace is no slouch on defense, and he has the occasional ability to hit the three. He's mainly a slasher. Outside of these two are a few individuals playing out of position -- Jared Dudley is more of a 3 in the way Melo is, he can shoot and posts up, but isn't a full time 4. Sean May is a 5, but he can play a slow, but thick, 4 for a bit. The skinny but quick Ajinca is a 7'0 French player who can't possibly be thinking of playing the 5 over here in America. The Bobcats are pretty good here. Miami has three solid guys that could start: Haslem is one of the last Oakley types in the NBA, Beasley has all the potential in the world and Shawn Marion is very capable to do many different things well. It doesn't really matter after that. Marion cancels out whatever Gerald Wallace can do, Okafor is better than Haslem though. Is Beasley better than Dudley, May and Ajinca? Most definitely, so Miami is in the lead so far. Orlando is troubling. They basically play two small forwards (who are 6'10 and 6'11) here, and both of them are perimeter oriented offensive players who leave all the dirty work to Dwight Howard. That said, they won quite a few games for Orlando this season -- their clutch shooting was a great help to their team. Cook can also shoot it from the outside, and everyman Tony Battie can still get up there to block some shots (but he's mostly a 5). Marcin Grotat is probably a solid pick and pop guy as well. If you are looking at pure scoring, it's hard to say no to Orlando. Washington has Antawn Jamison, who is (statistically) one of the best PFs in the Eastern Conference, even if no one talks about him. Oleksiy Pecherov will one day pan out to be a poor man's Detlef. Darius Songaila is a poor man's Jamison. All three are capable outside shooters, and all three are solid rebounders. They don't have much depth and versatility -- all are basically differing talent levels of the same type of power forward archetype. Miami's lack of depth is a worse problem than Orlando's lack of inside muscle, or Washington's lack of versatility.

Winners:	Miami	Heat
Shawn Marion	Udonis Haslem	Michael Beasley	Joel Anthony	David Padgett

Southwest Division:

Dallas Mavericks	Houston Rockets	Memphis Grizzlies	New Orleans Hornets	San Antonio Spurs
Dirk Nowitzki	Luis Scola	Hakim Warrick	David West	Tim Duncan
Brandon Bass	Carl Landry	Antoine Walker	Melvin Ely	Kurt Thomas
James Singleton	Chuck Hayes	Darrell Arthur	Julian Wright	Matt Bonner
	Ron Artest	Darko Milicic	Ryan Bowen	Ian Mahinmi
	Mike Harris		Hilton Armstrong	Anthony Tolliver

Dallas begins and ends with Dirk. He is one of the Top 5 power forwards in the league. Behind him is the inside brute Brandon Bass. Singleton almost has to bring nothing, and the Dallas power forwards are one of the better ones in the league. Singleton is apparently very athletic, so he only makes Dallas stronger. Houston has a legion of guys 6'9 and under to throw at teams. Scola is the best of the bunch, and guys like Landry, Hayes and Harris are all inside players. Landry is quite a good defender. Speaking of crazy defenders, the Rockets may elect to play Ron Artest at the 4 in spurts. He is capable of playing good off the ball and man to man defense against taller players. In the absence of Ron Artest, Dallas is much better than Houston, even though Houston has many more fouls to go around. (Keep in mind that some of these guys on the Rockets are also their back-up centers) Memphis has Warrick, who is an exciting young player; alas, he's not good enough to elevate this rag-tag group of power forwards over any of the other groups in his division. Walker is crazy talented, but he's not playing in many games. Darko can slide over, but I doubt that he would -- unless Marc Gasol is really good. The Hornets have one of the best mid-range jump shooting bigmen in David West. Their back-up is really Ryan Bowen (think Harpring, but taller, and less capable), but I've include the ability for them to shift people around a bit (like centers Ely and Armstrong). The Hornets are good -- but not because of their fear inducing power forwards for certain. The Spurs have Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas (like McDyess but better), Bonner (a guy for threes), Mahinmi (one of the better NBA-DL players out there) and this Tolliver guy. I know next to nothing about this guy, but I know he was drafted by the Spurs, and they rarely make mistakes. Dallas vs. San Antonio for this one . . . and . . . well, Duncan is way more clutch than Dirk in the playoffs.

Winners:	San Antonio	Spurs
Tim Duncan	Kurt Thomas	Matt Bonner	Ian Mahinmi	Anthony Tolliver

Northwest Division:

Denver Nuggets	Minnesota Timberwolves	Oklahoma City Thunder	Portland Trailblazers	Utah Jazz
Kenyon Martin	Al Jefferson	Chris Wilcox	LaMarcus Aldridge	Carlos Boozer
Nene	Ryan Gomes	Donyell Marshall	Channing Frye	Mehmet Okur
Renaldo Balkman	Craig Smith	Jeff Green	Ike Diogu	Andrei Kirilenko
Linas Kleiza	Brian Cardinal	Nick Collison	Travis Outlaw	Paul Millsap
Chris Anderson		Joe Smith	Raef LaFrentz	Kosta Koufos

Denver is talented here, K-Mart can run, jump and dunk. I'm not a fan of his, but on paper is he good enough to start on most teams. Nene -- probably the starting center -- can fit in well here as well. Balkman escapes from New York to bring his all around hustle to the Mile High city. Kleiza is a very accomplished shooter and international player who even put up something like 42 points against the Utah Jazz last season. The Birdman returns to the NBA as part of the Nuggets. All in all, they are very talented, have a solid outside spot up shooter in Kleiza and a couple of inside only guys. The T-Wolves are no slouches either. If Chris Bosh is one of the most under rated 4's in the league, Al Jefferson is not even mention at all. He is a beast on the inside. Gomes is very talented as well, and can do almost anything on the floor from hitting threes to blocking shots. Craig Smith is in that Maxiel/Millsap mold, but plays in relative obscurity. Brian Cardinal is Ryan Bowen with an outside shot. A solid group, but Gomes is not quite good enough to be a running four (like what Kleiza would be great at). Oklahoma is actually pretty good. Wilcox is the starter who can score in the paint. Donyell is a three point specialist to the point that he doesn't bring anything else to the table anymore. Jeff Green can slide over from the three to rebound and play well. Nick Collison is a rugged interior defender and Joe Smith is a very capable inside scorer. Portland just has LaMarcus -- and while he is a good young player, I'd rather have any other group of power forwards from the Northwest division than what Portland puts out there. Lastly, we have the Utah Jazz and, well, let's put it this way: three of these guys have been All-Stars. Carlos Boozer, for his defensive faults, is one of the best power forwards in the game -- he is a monster on the boards and is able to shoot from 18 feet or work inside with solid post moves. (Does David West have any post moves?) Mehmet Okur was a power forward up until Carlos Boozer finally got healthy two seasons ago. In Detroit he was a power forward and he was in Utah as well. He has great range, can block shots (like his game winning block), is an under rated man to man defender (like how he locked down Yao in games 5, 6 and 7 in 2006-2007) and can even drive. Andrei Kirilenko is very versatile, can guard guards and block the shot of centers. He shot 38% from deep last season and was European player of the year in 2007. He's also a very good shot blocker. Paul Millsap is the back-up of Boozer (because Ak is at the 3, and Memo at the 5), but in a true test of ability, he is farther down the depth charts. He is a tough defender who hustles for loose balls and is an energy player like Tyrus Thomas and others. Koufos is really a center, but his college game seems to translate better to the four. He's over 7' feet tall and can block shots and hit jumpers. I like what Oklahoma City has, I'm surprised at how good they are as a group. Denver is always tough, and they got much better by adding Balkman and Anderson -- though I can't vote against the Jazz. Not when three of their five guys at power forward have been All-Stars, and that any of their top three guys would start for almost every other team in the league.

Winners:	Utah	Jazz
Carlos Boozer	Mehmet Okur	Andrei Kirilenko	Paul Millsap	Kosta Koufos

Pacific Division:

Golden State Warriors	Los Angeles Clippers	Los Angeles Lakers	Phoenix Suns	Sacramento Kings
Al Harrington	Al Thornton	Pau Gasol	Amare Stoudemire	Mikki Moore
Brandan Wright	Tim Thomas	Lamar Odom	Boris Diaw	Kenny Thomas
Rony Turiaf	Brian Skinner	Vladimir Radmanovic	Louis Admunson	Shelden Williams
Anthony Randolph	Steve Novak	Luke Walton	Robin Lopez	Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Richard Hendrix	Marcus Camby	Josh Powell	Matt Barnes	Jason Thompson

Golden State is interesting, they have a Jamison type with Al Harrington, and occasional center Rony Turiaf is quite good as a backup. They've channeled the Department of Redundancy Department with Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph. Unfortunately for this group, I think the whole is less than the sum of their parts. The Clippers will probably have to use either Kaman or Camby here -- I guess Camby as he used to be a PF back in the olden days. Novak and Thomas can shoot it, and Thornton has potential to be something. The Lakers, on the other hand, have guys who are something. Gasol will have to move to the 4 to make room for Bynum. This makes Odom one of the most talented back-up power forwards of all time. He is great when he is on. Vlad Rad is all about shooting, and Luke struggles at time, but over all, he's not that bad. Phoenix has Amare, the ultra versatile Diaw, the monumental punk Matt Barnes (but he can sometimes hit a three), Mr. Hustle Louis Admunson and if they really need him, Robin Lopez. Over all, it's a solid group, but Gasol and Odom are greater than Amare and Diaw. Sacramento is were somewhat talented power forwards go to die. Easily the Lakers win this one.

Winners:	Los Angeles	Lakers
Pau Gasol	Lamar Odom	Valdimir Radmanovic	Luke Walton	Josh Powell

The question remains though . . . which of these six groups is the best? (remember to think about strengths, depth, versatility, offensive diversity, defense, star power, awards, and chemistry)