A little early but . . . NBADraft.net's 2010 Top 10

This is really premature, but as Jazz fans, we all know why we should be keeping an eye on this . . . Well, here is nbadraft.net's mock draft for 2010:

1. John Wall, 6'4 PG
2. Ricky Rubio, 6'4, PG
3. Xavier Henry, 6'6, SG
4. Jrue Holiday, 6'4, PG/SG
5. Derrick Favors, 6'9, PF
6. Gani Lawal, 6'9, PF
7. Austin Daye, 6'10, SF
8. Donatas Motiejunas, 7'1, PF
9. Davin Ebanks, 6'8, SF
10. Scotty Hopson, 6'6, SG

I'm pretty sure that David Stern would do whatever it takes to make sure that we don't get Ricky Rubio, even though he's a dead ringer for a former Jazz player that we may all know . . . Who knows if any of those 10 guys will be true Lotto picks (i.e. the top 14 picked each year), or even if the Knicks will be in the lotto by then? (Thanks, guys . . . ) Even more surprising would be to guess what the Jazz would need in 2010.

There's just so much up in the air that will "eventually" sort itself out after next off-season. (God willing) So it'll be much easier to forecast a drafting direction for future years after that's all taken care of. I do know that if Price and Knight get short contracts from the Jazz this following off-season that the Jazz may be in need of a PG to help Deron out time to time.

By 2010 if our shooting guard situation still necessitates the drafting of young SGs then our current crop of 3 young guys (CJ, Ronnie B and Mobe) must not have panned out. Even more startling would be if one of our three recent centers all end up as duds (Fesenko, Koufos and Tomic). I'm guessing we'll either be on the look out for a PF -- we can't honestly expect to have Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Millsap all on the roster by then, and will need to reload at the 4 for sure.

Though . . . it would be fun to see Ricky as a rookie playing with our 2nd unit throwing oops to Andrei, and making crazy passes to Korver . . .

Wages of Wins on Morris Almond

This is a bit older (Oct 14th, 2008), but a necessary look at Morris Almond from one of the most respected stat guys out there -- David Berri from The Wages of Wins. Basically he appraises Mobe to be better offensively (well, scoring-ingly) than the average NBA shooting guard, but below average when it comes to rebounds (by 1 rpg), steals (by 0.6 spg), personal fouls (by 0.7 fpg), assists (by 2.5 apg) and turn overs (where he gets 1.4 more turn overs per game). For the record he does block more than the average NBA shooting guard.

So, yeah -- you're saying "tell me something I don't already know" . . . well, I come from an unconventional school of thought. One where you eventually have to look at the type of player you have not based on what he is not, but on the type of things that got him to this stage. Almond went to high school with Atlanta's Josh Smith -- and recognized that he did not have the all around game (or athleticism) to do what Smith did; so he had to carve out a special niche for himself to excel in.

Almond's rookie stats don't look great compared to the average NBA shooting guard . . . unless you a) recognize that these are rookie stats, and b) you actually look at the stuff that Almond has really put in the time to work on -- and excel in. No one said on draft night that Morris Almond was going to be an NBA ready defender or playmaker from day one. What people said is that the kid can score at the NBA level.

According to the stats from the article above he can. The average NBA shooting guard (over 48 minutes) scores 20.8 ppg, goes to the line less than 5 times a game, and shoots a little above 48 adjusted fg% and about 80 ft%. What about Mobe? Dude scores a whopping 33.1 ppg (you know, almost 13 more ppg than "average"), he gets to the line 10 times a game (twice as much as 'average') and shoots a better percentage from FG and FT range.

So yeah . . . below average (by some really small margins like 1 rpg, or 0.7 fpg), but above average by some huge margins when it comes to what he is good at.

Still . . . Jerry Sloan isn't going to play him until he gets the all-around game he's going to need if he's ever going to be a starter . . . so yeah, see ya in Orem, Mo' ! And check out the article (link at the top of the post) from The Wages of Wins if you want to go a little deeper!

YouTube Tuesdays! The man they call Mobe

As far as roster depth at SG goes, it's not like the Jazz brass are in a bad spot. Sure, there's no Superstar playing SG in our offense, but it's not like our offense is built around a Superstar Guard who takes a lot of shots either. Do any of the Jazz guards have what it takes to be a superstar? Probably not, but out of what they currently have, you can clearly see that at least ONE of them may one day be an NBA All-Star. Having to divvy up 48 minutes between three point ace Kyle Korver, super athletic Ronnie Brewer, a 4th year player who is only 21 (C.J. Miles) and the Impact player of the year in the NBA-DL (Morris Almond) isn't as bad as having to split that same amount of time between Greg Ostertag, John Amaechi, Curtis Borchardt and Jarron Collins. (and yes, we almost made the playoffs with that at center) That's why I suggest that the Jazz brass are not in a bad spot, because they've been in much worse spots before.

Today we're going to see Morris Almond break the D-League scoring record, and while the length of this video does not span a large sample size of the game, we can clearly see the makings of a solid offensive player. Certainly, it's not a bad thing if the 4th guy on your shooting guard depth chart can score 50+ in a game (which Almond has demonstrated in his games of 51 and 53 points last season) in an American professional basketball league (which the D-League is). I probably look at Almond's game a lot differently than other Jazz fans who are holding out for a complete player. I don't expect him to be Ray Allen. I don't expect him to be Dell Curry either -- Almond's game somewhere in-between those two.

Morris Almond wowed fans and opposing coaches alike last season in the NBA-DL, though this season he must try to impress Jerry Sloan with the other parts of his game besides offense. Photo by NBAE/Getty Images.

As I live in Detroit I get to enjoy a lot of exposure to Pistons players (heck, Preeti (if you don't know who she is then sucks to be you) had dinner with Chauncey Billups tonight); one player that I've had a good hard look at has been Rip Hamilton. He's not the most athletic guy around, nor is he a great one on one defender. (If he was, then the Pistons wouldn't get killed by LeBron every other game) Rip isn't a complete player -- he's not going to dunk on other guys, or beat 3 guys off the dribble like Kobe does. On offense he runs other guys through the Reggie-Miller-hamster-wheel-of-death, gets open, and makes jumpers. Aren't those the only shots that SGs really get in our offense anyway?

With this information (that the only shots for SGs in our half court offense happen to be the types that Rip gets and makes) I heartily envision a spot on the floor for Almond in the future. Why? Because Morris Almond (if plugged into such a system) can perform that well. He has all of those moves already and can be just as efficient. He only looks like a chucker who never gets assists because we've only seen him play with marginally capable point guards and really bad players everywhere else. Just check out the video, and try convincing yourself that if he played with Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and the pass-happy Andrei Kirilenko that he wouldn't be able to keep the defenses honest more than Brewer does with his broken shot.

Almond Tops Scoring Record [1:37] Uploaded by sanskrit953263 -- Earlier in the season Almond had scored 51 points, and he breaks his own (and the NBA DL's) record with this performance on January 30th, 2008. He ended up shooting 19-34 (3-7 from three, 12-14 at the FT line), and added 6 boards, 2 steals and 2 assists. He's never going to get to shoot it that much in a week of NBA action next season, but it's not like he was chucking the ball, he's the only offensive player on his team (hello triple teamed?) and he still managed to shoot 55.8 fg% on his way to 53 points !!!

The YouTube comments section is interesting to read, especially how non-Jazz fans suggest that he has some, albeit minor, Kobe-like skills with scoring the ball. (Particularly with his post up game, which is good for a guard, and as his Jazz teammates Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer tease, how he never passes the ball) That's basically why they named him Mobe. Looking at how smooth he plays on offense, I can easily see why the name has stuck.

Do I think he should start? No. Do I think he should get a chance to show his stuff with good players? Yes. Realistically, he is a season or two away from being a legit NBA player. Watching him in summer league I came to the conclusion that he was not learning anything new by playing with guys worse than him. For him to get better he needs to play against guys who are better than he is -- essentially, NBA players. His defense is not so hot (but he does try and has a good blocks to foul ratio, one of the better ones on the roster for sure).

But . . . is defense really a Jazz priority in the first case? We win games by out scoring them, our paint area is patrolled by our small forward and our bigmen don't play any defense. To fix our defense we'd have to break down a lot of our current structure. It's almost better to keep getting better at offense, because we sure as heck can't stop anyone from scoring. I guess this is what will only make Almond that much more important to our future -- I'm sure that he will become the best offensive player out of him, Korver, Brewer and Miles. Again, Rip Hamilton has flaws, but he can be an All-Star, I'm sure we can coax 12 ppg out of Morris Almond 2-3 seasons from now.

The Making Guard

It really is de rigueur to say that the Jazz don't really have it going on when it comes to shooting guard. When guys like Doug Collins repeatedly say it during a TV Game like it is some mystical mantra you know that everyone in the world already knows this. For the record there really isn't much to say about the Jazz, apparently. Watch a TV Game and they will mention a few of these things non-stop: Jerry Sloan has been coaching for quite a bit; Matt Harpring is tough/scrappy and comes from a strong football background; they lost to the Bulls twice in the finals, Andrei Kirilenko is reportedly upset about his role; Duh-ron Williams is not that bad; and last, but not least, the Jazz haven't had a solid shooting guard since Jeff Hornacek played here. Anyway, that last point is apparently all too true, as Utah really hasn't had much success with shooting guards in recent memory. Jerry Sloan even called the Jazz 2's out, asking for a Making Guard.

MJ's torture was Impossibull to forget for Jazz fans	The Glide used to kill us in the 80's and the 90's	Vince Carter reminds us all how good he is, when he plays the Jazz	If the only guy who can score gets 57, then the defense is broken	Playoff avg vs Jazz: 26.1 ppg, 7.1 apg, 6.9 rpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg

This is, no doubt, compounded by the fact that Utah has a rich history for getting absolutely owned by dynamic shooting guards. Michael Jordan used to beat up on the Jazz way before he was even an NBA champion. Clyde Drexler was able to score almost at will when he played for Portland -- and the problem never got fixed, he still scored 40 against the Jazz in the playoffs at the end of his career playing for the Houston Rockets. Two years ago shooting guards were having career games against the Jazz. Against the Jazz Michael Redd had something like 9 billion points in one game. Vince Carter is still a superstar . . . though only when he plays Utah. Tracy McGrady, for all of his playoff failures, has put up insane lines in the playoffs vs. Utah. And let's not even forget about Kobe Bryant -- all I gotta say about how he has treated my team over his career is that I sure hope he pays tax on his ownership of the Jazz.

Off the top of my head I have to struggle to name 5 shooting guards of any worth who were a big part of the Jazz when they played here. Pistol Pete Maravich, certainly is the top SG of this franchise. (Don't even get me started on why the New Orleans Hornets have retired his jersey . . . they are the Charlotte Hornets franchise, which joined the league many years after his death . . . go hang up a Muggsy Bogues' jersey instead, at least he played for your franchise!)

Next two on the list would have to be Dr. Dunkenstein aka. Darrell Griffith and Jeff Hornacek. It's hard to say which player was better for the franchise, and both deserve to be in the Top 3 for their combination of excellent three point shooting and nicknames (right, Horny?). Griffith was an instrumental player in those early Jazz teams that struggled and clawed their way into the NBA Playoffs for the first time ever. Hornacek fandom and revisionism has reached nearly Deity-like levels, as he was the third guy in those Stockton-to-Malone NBA Finals teams. (While averaging less than 15 ppg in his time here) After that it pretty much becomes slim pickings . . .

I guess Jeff Malone gets the nod here, but he was better with the Washington Bullets methinks. Either him or Dell Curry, who didn't do anything here. In fact, there is an equally rich history of the Jazz getting rid of some players way too early, and having them develop into pretty good players over time. Dell Curry (1 season) is one of them. Raja Bell became a solid NBA player in his 2 seasons here, then split town to play in Phoenix. Tim Legler (more of a point guard) was a three point ace who played in all of three games for the Utah Jazz. Sasha "Don't call me Aleksandar" Pavlovic was a promising talent who now plays with LeBron in Cleveland after playing in 79 games in his Rookie season for Utah. Same deal with Kelly Tripucka, except he played in Utah for 2 seasons. All of that said, looking at the complete list of players who have played for this franchise, you have to at least admit that The Locksmith has an outside shot at being one of the Top 5 best shooting guards in Jazz franchise history. (If we look at the careers of guards who at some stage have played for the Jazz, and not by purely what they did in a Jazz uniform -- D-Steve managed only 5.9 ppg, heck John Starks two seasons with Utah was better with a 7.0 ppg, but DeShawn has become a much better player than more than half of the shooting guards who have played in Utah) Alas, the fact that a true Top 5 is hard to even discuss, let alone agree upon is evidence enough that the Jazz have had some trouble with this whole "Shooting Guard" thing.

There appears to be no end in sight to the talent rich pool of shooting guards in the NBA. In the Northwest division alone the Jazz have to fend off Allen Iverson, Brandon Roy and Kevin Durant for starters. It gets even worse when you add in all of the other talented guards in the west. I guess the solution is to either get one of these dynamic, show stopping guards onto our roster (through trades of player development), or at the very least, try to close the disparity a bit -- to discover this proverbial two who can play defense and also be, as Coach Sloan calls it, a "Making Guard". (How did we ever win games against the Chicago Bulls when they had Jordan and we had Bobby Hansen checking him?)

Right now Utah has two things going for it at the two guard, they have youth and quantity. Hopefully this translates (through some algebraic formula) into a chance for realized potential, and later down the line, depth and quality. It's much easier to platoon a size position with a number of guys (Like the Bulls did at center with Longley, Perdue and Wennington) than at a skill position. As of today the Jazz bring a whole mess of guys to the table.

Name:	Ronnie Brewer	Kyle Korver	C.J. Miles	Morris Almond
Experience:	2 yrs pro, 23 yrs old	5 yrs pro, 26 yrs old	3 yrs pro, 21 yrs old	1 yrs pro, 22 yrs old
Current Role:	Starting Shooting Guard, 4th or 5th option on offense.	Scorer off the bench, plays during crunch time due to insane FT% and 3PT ability.	Starts at the 2 or 3 if the regular starters are injured, otherwise does not play	Prospect gaining experience by being 'The Man' for the Flash, in the DL.
Best Case for 2008-2009:	Develops into a defensive stopper and keeps defense honest with outside shot while continuing to shoot a higher FG% than most other SGs.	Improves defense & ball handling to the point where he is more than a spot up shooter. Some roster moves could promote him to starter.	Finally puts it all together and earns the right to start in the NBA. Shows a consistent enough effort on defense to be on the floor long enough to be more than just D-Will's boy.	Becomes a rotation player for the Jazz by showing the coaches that he does more than score the ball, or turn it over. Potential to make Korver expendable.
Worst Case for 2008-2009:	Never develops consistent outside shot, slowly becomes off the bench energy guy at Small Forward as career advances	Risk/Reward for playing such a min/maxed guy crunch time minutes becomes too risky as lack of defensive ability and over-all game too much to overlook because of solid shooting ability.	Career fails to take off for 4th season in a row as he dreams of alternate reality where he plays for the Oklahoma City team.	Inability to be a complete player negates his technically proficient scoring skills and he never gets significant playing time for the Jazz for the 2nd straight season.

This season will be quite telling to see if any of these guys are more than what they've shown so far. Kover has been in the league the longest, and as a result, shows the most polish. Jerry Sloan trusts him the most as well, often going down the stretch with him playing alongside the four principal players (William, Kirilenko, Boozer and Okur).  He, aside from the occasional blocked shot, doesn't do much on defense. 'Kover for three!!!' brings the crowd to their feet like 'Hornacek for three!!!' used to, though. So that has to count for something.

Ronnie Brewer is the incumbent starter at shooting guard, and he makes a lot of his shots (55.8 fg%!!!), they just aren't the type of shots that usual shooting guards have to rely upon. I haven't read this anywhere, but the super dynamic Brewer (coming into the NBA Draft was purported to be a 1/2/3, and not just a 2) is probably a better small forward than a shooting guard. Until he develops a more consistent outside shot that keeps defense honest, he can't be the guy we need at the two for the long term. (Floor spacing is poor if your shooting guard can't shoot from very far) He is very, very young still, and has the potential to get better I think.

C.J. and Morris really need experience more than anything. Almond played four years of NCAA ball, and is actually older than C.J.! Alternatively, Miles has "played" in the NBA the second most out of this foursome. Miles clearly has the most potential, as he has shown flashes of being able to do everything from D-up Carmelo Anthony, dunk on Amare Stoudemire and hit threes. He could be that "making" guard that Sloan wants. Will he ever be a dynamic guard like a T-Mac, Kobe, Wade or Carter? Probably not, but he can still be a solid NBA starter. (Surely with a better career than Jeff Malone or Dell Curry, right?)

Morris Almond was the guy who lost the most when the Jazz matched C.J.'s offer. He would have gotten more playing time (theoretically at least), and been the best 3rd string shooting guard in the league. While C.J. shows flashes of doing some amazing things, Almond shows more frequent flashes of doing a much more focused number of things well. Living in Detroit I get to see a lot of Rip Hamilton. Ask Rip to be T-Mac and he would fail. Ask Rip to do a few things well (come off of screens and shoot midrange jumpers), and he can do that to the point of being an All-Star. Almond would flourish in a system that asks only so much out of him. There is nothing that Rip does on offense that Almond can't do just as well. With time and seasoning I think that Almond can be a consistent NBA performer.

Are any of these four guys going to make Jazz fans less worried when guys like Kobe come to town? No. Are any of these four guys going to be a Top 5 Shooting guard in franchise history? Maybe, but it's way too early to tell. Can any of these guys be that Making Guard who makes things happen for the Jazz? Absolutely! Now we just have to wait and see how 2008-2009 plays out to get our answer to that question.

These four players will ultimately have something to say about 'the last good Shooting Guard for the Jazz'. They each have the skills, talent and potential to at the very least, require commentators like Doug Collins say something good about our guards for once. And that would be a huge upgrade the position hasn't seen in years.