Things to look for this season: Matt Harpring

Love him or hate him, we can all be pretty secure in the knowledge that when (not "if") Matt gets back off the IR, that he's going to play at least 10 mpg at small forward for the rest of the season [Unless Ceejay levels up a few times while Matty is out and becomes a real NBA Starter, of course, but I'm not going to hold my breath]. I could go on and make this a very short post, but I think Matty deserves better.

Like so many other players (Mark Eaton, Thurl Bailey, Jeff Malone, David Benoit, Donyell Marshall, etc), his best years were playing off of Stockton and Malone -- but those years were almost a lifetime ago. In my mind he is now probably best suited as a 'life coach' for our younger players . . . if they could adopt his work ethic then I think we'll be sitting pretty at the center spot in a few seasons. That said: he is still useful on the court. Before you leave this website forever let me further explain what I mean. Harpring is a physical three who rebounds well for his position and doesn't back down from anyone. In recent seasons he's been a thorn in the side of everyone from Carmelo Anthony to Ron Artest. Guys like Korver, Miles and Almond are just not going to be able to make Ron Artest get ejected or take 'Melo out of his game. He's useful in specific situations, especially because we do not have anyone who can replace what he gives on the 'toughness' angle just yet. [I highly recommend this uploaded video by xunlucky17x]

That does not mean I think he needs to be playing big minutes, but he's a special type of player that is useful in certain situations. He's like your 2nd string fullback in American football -- he may not be the starter, or useful in all situations, but on a 3rd and short he's going to get the job done. If you put Harp out there to muscle up against another physical small forward then he is actually useful.

If the other team isn't using a physical small forward then don't put Harpring in the game. Simple as that. Why? Well, for starters: statistically he is getting worse, his shooting range seems to be positively correlated with my shrinking hair line. Back in the early 2000's Harpring could hit threes and I had a full head of hair. Now Harpring misses layups and I have to comb my hair down. It's a sad time for both of us. You don't want to have Harpring on the floor unless you really need to have him on the floor. (Especially when we're close to a title and need to have our younger guys be developed now rather than later) If you need any other reason why you don't want him on the floor just ask yourself if you think Harpring is quick enough to defend any perimeter small forwards any more. The answer is, of course, no.

Harp will not let go of playing time without a fight, just like he wont let go of this ball unless he gets to keep Luke Ridnour's forearm as a prize.	Click on the image to make it bigger

Here's a chart that (tries to) depict how many games Matty has played in each of the 6 seasons that he's been with the Utah Jazz. [This is the dark blue bar] This chart also (tries to) depict how many minutes he plays per game.[This is the light blue bar] As you can see he usually plays over 70 games per season (he has averaged 75.5 games per season in the last four seasons). He played 36.6 minutes per game back in 2003-2004 -- his most as a Jazz player -- but since then there's been quite a decline which corresponds with accumulated injuries and advancing age.

If you've done the math (and I have, if you want I can e-mail you the spread sheet) over the last four seasons (from age 28 to 31) his minutes per game has been going down by (on average) 4.625 mpg in each successive season. [Data: -3.5 between 2002-2003 and 2003-2004; -5.7 between 2003-2004 and 2004-2005; -1.9 between 2004-2005 and 2005-2006; and -7.4 between 2006-2007 and last season, 2007-2008] For you math geeks out there who remember their y=mx +b and slope = y2-y1 / x2-x1 formulas the average rate of declined MPG (in this case, -4.625) is also equal to the slope if you use the points (2, 36.6) and (6, 18.1).

If you extrapolate this to the next season, this current season (2008-2009), then you get 18.1 - 4.625 . . . or 13.475 mpg. I could live with Harpring playing 13.5 mpg this season, I'd be happier with 12, but I'll take what I can get. It remains to be seen if his playing time decline is going to be so linear . . . he may very well just play in under 70 games this season, but in those games play closer to 20 mpg for all I know. All of this gobble-dee-gook aside, what three things can we look for this season from Matt Harpring?

1. He's not going to be rushed back: The Jazz have enough wings to weather the storm until he comes back to "anchor" the 2nd unit with his veteran play. (Anchor, as in, he brings the play down, check out his +/- stats sometime, 4th worst on the team last season) In as way, his injury has come at a good time when Sloan is more open to trying out different line-ups and open to developing his young talent. We've already seen C.J. Miles take the starting role while AK supplants Harpring and the key bench veteran. Matt Harpring's current injury is the main reason why Jerry Sloan has had to change up the line up this off-season. (Sure, Deron's injury is an acute issue right now, but the line up was changed before he got injured) You can be sure that when he comes back that Jerry Sloan will shuffle things all over again. Right now AK is being put in the veteran off the bench role that our second unit really needs for stability. This is usually Harpring's role, and I can easily see Jerry Sloan immediately revert to putting AK at the 3 in the starting line up after Harpring is back. Though, Jerry does some funny things time to time, like how in 2005-2006 to finish the season Memo was the starting 4, and Carlos was the 5, because Memo had been playing the 4 most of the season while Carlos was on the injured reserve. I can't really predict what's going to happen when Harpring gets back, but I know that he's going to play. He's not going to give up playing time without a fight either. Thankfully, there is no current time table for his return, so we're not going to see him for a while.
2. Frustrate the fans: Some fans are going to complain that when he comes back that he still plays too many minutes. Some will complain that he's not playing enough and that "we need his _____" (defense, rebounding, toughness, scoring, veteran play, hustle, flops, crew cut, fouls, whiteness ?). Both sides are not going to be placated until he retires from the NBA and joins the Georgia High school Football Hall of Fame. (Apparently there is such a thing, and here's Harpring's high school team's record) He's one of the most divisive players in Utah Jazz history, and part of the reason stems from the fact that many fans would rather develop his eventual replacement instead of keep giving a guy all these minutes as he breaks down every season. (Jazz career average for games played per season: 68.5) He's injured right now, and there's no time table for his return -- so the "sit Harpring" contingent will have an undisclosed amount of time to sit Harpring all they want. To be clear, I think I fall neatly in that contingent as well, but I don't think that it's time to take him out behind the barn and shoot him yet. (That's next season...)
3. Continue to play physical, smash-mouth basketball: If the Jazz are in the playoffs, he is going to play in them. I don't know when his immune system is going to be back online, but I can empathize with him as I've been a little sick lately. When he does come back, I feel bad for the forwards that'll match up with him when he's finally been given the green light to play at full velocity. (Speed just isn't a strong enough word to describe his game) He only knows how to play the game one way, and you can be sure that he'll be a force to be reckoned with when he's on the court this season. (Just a force for which team, ours or theirs, remains to be seen) If we have to face a team with a physical small forward in the playoffs I can see him getting a lot more burn than 10-14 mpg like he will this regular season. I'm pretty sure that he can rattle a guy like Artest if they face off against each other in the playoffs.

I don't know when he's going to play for us, but it's a safe bet that the Jazz may start off by watching his minutes very closely. This may contribute to continuing a downward trend in minutes played per game for Matt, and as a 32 year old with the knees of a 45 year old, I'm sure his body (if not his mind) will appreciate it. Now only if he can continue to teach the younglings (Kosta and Kyrylo) how to throw their body around and play physical like he has all these years . . .

The Making Guard

It really is de rigueur to say that the Jazz don't really have it going on when it comes to shooting guard. When guys like Doug Collins repeatedly say it during a TV Game like it is some mystical mantra you know that everyone in the world already knows this. For the record there really isn't much to say about the Jazz, apparently. Watch a TV Game and they will mention a few of these things non-stop: Jerry Sloan has been coaching for quite a bit; Matt Harpring is tough/scrappy and comes from a strong football background; they lost to the Bulls twice in the finals, Andrei Kirilenko is reportedly upset about his role; Duh-ron Williams is not that bad; and last, but not least, the Jazz haven't had a solid shooting guard since Jeff Hornacek played here. Anyway, that last point is apparently all too true, as Utah really hasn't had much success with shooting guards in recent memory. Jerry Sloan even called the Jazz 2's out, asking for a Making Guard.

MJ's torture was Impossibull to forget for Jazz fans	The Glide used to kill us in the 80's and the 90's	Vince Carter reminds us all how good he is, when he plays the Jazz	If the only guy who can score gets 57, then the defense is broken	Playoff avg vs Jazz: 26.1 ppg, 7.1 apg, 6.9 rpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg

This is, no doubt, compounded by the fact that Utah has a rich history for getting absolutely owned by dynamic shooting guards. Michael Jordan used to beat up on the Jazz way before he was even an NBA champion. Clyde Drexler was able to score almost at will when he played for Portland -- and the problem never got fixed, he still scored 40 against the Jazz in the playoffs at the end of his career playing for the Houston Rockets. Two years ago shooting guards were having career games against the Jazz. Against the Jazz Michael Redd had something like 9 billion points in one game. Vince Carter is still a superstar . . . though only when he plays Utah. Tracy McGrady, for all of his playoff failures, has put up insane lines in the playoffs vs. Utah. And let's not even forget about Kobe Bryant -- all I gotta say about how he has treated my team over his career is that I sure hope he pays tax on his ownership of the Jazz.

Off the top of my head I have to struggle to name 5 shooting guards of any worth who were a big part of the Jazz when they played here. Pistol Pete Maravich, certainly is the top SG of this franchise. (Don't even get me started on why the New Orleans Hornets have retired his jersey . . . they are the Charlotte Hornets franchise, which joined the league many years after his death . . . go hang up a Muggsy Bogues' jersey instead, at least he played for your franchise!)

Next two on the list would have to be Dr. Dunkenstein aka. Darrell Griffith and Jeff Hornacek. It's hard to say which player was better for the franchise, and both deserve to be in the Top 3 for their combination of excellent three point shooting and nicknames (right, Horny?). Griffith was an instrumental player in those early Jazz teams that struggled and clawed their way into the NBA Playoffs for the first time ever. Hornacek fandom and revisionism has reached nearly Deity-like levels, as he was the third guy in those Stockton-to-Malone NBA Finals teams. (While averaging less than 15 ppg in his time here) After that it pretty much becomes slim pickings . . .

I guess Jeff Malone gets the nod here, but he was better with the Washington Bullets methinks. Either him or Dell Curry, who didn't do anything here. In fact, there is an equally rich history of the Jazz getting rid of some players way too early, and having them develop into pretty good players over time. Dell Curry (1 season) is one of them. Raja Bell became a solid NBA player in his 2 seasons here, then split town to play in Phoenix. Tim Legler (more of a point guard) was a three point ace who played in all of three games for the Utah Jazz. Sasha "Don't call me Aleksandar" Pavlovic was a promising talent who now plays with LeBron in Cleveland after playing in 79 games in his Rookie season for Utah. Same deal with Kelly Tripucka, except he played in Utah for 2 seasons. All of that said, looking at the complete list of players who have played for this franchise, you have to at least admit that The Locksmith has an outside shot at being one of the Top 5 best shooting guards in Jazz franchise history. (If we look at the careers of guards who at some stage have played for the Jazz, and not by purely what they did in a Jazz uniform -- D-Steve managed only 5.9 ppg, heck John Starks two seasons with Utah was better with a 7.0 ppg, but DeShawn has become a much better player than more than half of the shooting guards who have played in Utah) Alas, the fact that a true Top 5 is hard to even discuss, let alone agree upon is evidence enough that the Jazz have had some trouble with this whole "Shooting Guard" thing.

There appears to be no end in sight to the talent rich pool of shooting guards in the NBA. In the Northwest division alone the Jazz have to fend off Allen Iverson, Brandon Roy and Kevin Durant for starters. It gets even worse when you add in all of the other talented guards in the west. I guess the solution is to either get one of these dynamic, show stopping guards onto our roster (through trades of player development), or at the very least, try to close the disparity a bit -- to discover this proverbial two who can play defense and also be, as Coach Sloan calls it, a "Making Guard". (How did we ever win games against the Chicago Bulls when they had Jordan and we had Bobby Hansen checking him?)

Right now Utah has two things going for it at the two guard, they have youth and quantity. Hopefully this translates (through some algebraic formula) into a chance for realized potential, and later down the line, depth and quality. It's much easier to platoon a size position with a number of guys (Like the Bulls did at center with Longley, Perdue and Wennington) than at a skill position. As of today the Jazz bring a whole mess of guys to the table.

Name:	Ronnie Brewer	Kyle Korver	C.J. Miles	Morris Almond
Experience:	2 yrs pro, 23 yrs old	5 yrs pro, 26 yrs old	3 yrs pro, 21 yrs old	1 yrs pro, 22 yrs old
Current Role:	Starting Shooting Guard, 4th or 5th option on offense.	Scorer off the bench, plays during crunch time due to insane FT% and 3PT ability.	Starts at the 2 or 3 if the regular starters are injured, otherwise does not play	Prospect gaining experience by being 'The Man' for the Flash, in the DL.
Best Case for 2008-2009:	Develops into a defensive stopper and keeps defense honest with outside shot while continuing to shoot a higher FG% than most other SGs.	Improves defense & ball handling to the point where he is more than a spot up shooter. Some roster moves could promote him to starter.	Finally puts it all together and earns the right to start in the NBA. Shows a consistent enough effort on defense to be on the floor long enough to be more than just D-Will's boy.	Becomes a rotation player for the Jazz by showing the coaches that he does more than score the ball, or turn it over. Potential to make Korver expendable.
Worst Case for 2008-2009:	Never develops consistent outside shot, slowly becomes off the bench energy guy at Small Forward as career advances	Risk/Reward for playing such a min/maxed guy crunch time minutes becomes too risky as lack of defensive ability and over-all game too much to overlook because of solid shooting ability.	Career fails to take off for 4th season in a row as he dreams of alternate reality where he plays for the Oklahoma City team.	Inability to be a complete player negates his technically proficient scoring skills and he never gets significant playing time for the Jazz for the 2nd straight season.

This season will be quite telling to see if any of these guys are more than what they've shown so far. Kover has been in the league the longest, and as a result, shows the most polish. Jerry Sloan trusts him the most as well, often going down the stretch with him playing alongside the four principal players (William, Kirilenko, Boozer and Okur).  He, aside from the occasional blocked shot, doesn't do much on defense. 'Kover for three!!!' brings the crowd to their feet like 'Hornacek for three!!!' used to, though. So that has to count for something.

Ronnie Brewer is the incumbent starter at shooting guard, and he makes a lot of his shots (55.8 fg%!!!), they just aren't the type of shots that usual shooting guards have to rely upon. I haven't read this anywhere, but the super dynamic Brewer (coming into the NBA Draft was purported to be a 1/2/3, and not just a 2) is probably a better small forward than a shooting guard. Until he develops a more consistent outside shot that keeps defense honest, he can't be the guy we need at the two for the long term. (Floor spacing is poor if your shooting guard can't shoot from very far) He is very, very young still, and has the potential to get better I think.

C.J. and Morris really need experience more than anything. Almond played four years of NCAA ball, and is actually older than C.J.! Alternatively, Miles has "played" in the NBA the second most out of this foursome. Miles clearly has the most potential, as he has shown flashes of being able to do everything from D-up Carmelo Anthony, dunk on Amare Stoudemire and hit threes. He could be that "making" guard that Sloan wants. Will he ever be a dynamic guard like a T-Mac, Kobe, Wade or Carter? Probably not, but he can still be a solid NBA starter. (Surely with a better career than Jeff Malone or Dell Curry, right?)

Morris Almond was the guy who lost the most when the Jazz matched C.J.'s offer. He would have gotten more playing time (theoretically at least), and been the best 3rd string shooting guard in the league. While C.J. shows flashes of doing some amazing things, Almond shows more frequent flashes of doing a much more focused number of things well. Living in Detroit I get to see a lot of Rip Hamilton. Ask Rip to be T-Mac and he would fail. Ask Rip to do a few things well (come off of screens and shoot midrange jumpers), and he can do that to the point of being an All-Star. Almond would flourish in a system that asks only so much out of him. There is nothing that Rip does on offense that Almond can't do just as well. With time and seasoning I think that Almond can be a consistent NBA performer.

Are any of these four guys going to make Jazz fans less worried when guys like Kobe come to town? No. Are any of these four guys going to be a Top 5 Shooting guard in franchise history? Maybe, but it's way too early to tell. Can any of these guys be that Making Guard who makes things happen for the Jazz? Absolutely! Now we just have to wait and see how 2008-2009 plays out to get our answer to that question.

These four players will ultimately have something to say about 'the last good Shooting Guard for the Jazz'. They each have the skills, talent and potential to at the very least, require commentators like Doug Collins say something good about our guards for once. And that would be a huge upgrade the position hasn't seen in years.

Flashback Friday: David Benoit

For most Jazz fans David Benoit is/was/will always be remembered as a pariah. I grew up watching Jazz put out front lines of Malone and Bailey, and then Malone and Corbin . . . when Malone and Benoit came around I had seen plenty of Jazz sets that ran Stockton, Eaton, two inside scoring forwards and a shooting guard (e.g. Griffith, or Jeff Malone).

David Benoit was a hard dunking small forward who was long and athletic. Unfortunately for him, his game half translated to how the NBA game was changing. Back in the 80s and very early 90s you could get away with being a small forward with no outside shot. Things were changing in the mid 90s, where everyone from Pippen to Grant Hill to Dan Majerle became more proficient on the outside. Even the fabled Dominique Wilkins had to start making threes in those days. David Benoit was part of that dying breed of non-proficient outside shooting small forwards. Had he come into the league in the 70s he would have probably hung around for longer than he did in the 90s.It behooves me to recount his career arc, but according to the Unofficial David Benoit site, after being undrafted at the end of his collegiate career he went on to play in Malaga, Spain and won the ACB (the name of the league, Raul Lopez fans may be familiar with it) Rookie of the year. After that he signed with the Jazz and played hard.

He quickly impressed the Jazz brass and became our starting small forward.

Benoit doin' that thing he do.	YouTube video "I Love This Game: Are You Ready to Fly (NBA commercial)" [0:30] uploaded by onceuponatimeinnba

Benoit's best years playing for the Jazz included being part of the 1993 All-Star Weekend Dunk contest (which took play in Salt Lake City); finishing that 1992-1993 season strong by averaging 12.7 ppg and 6.5 rpg; and in 1994-1995 he had his best year leading the Jazz in 3 pointers made (in the playoffs) and averaging 10.4 ppg (48.7%/33.0%/84.1%) and 5.2 rpg. It's important to note that his three point shooting was particularly impressive for him (and up to that point, any Utah Jazz forward).

Unfortunately for him, the team, and the fans, his strong regular season outside shooting did not carry over to the post season. The Jazz were ousted in 5 games (back then the 1st round of the playoffs was best of 5, kids) by the eventual champions, the Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler led Houston Rockets. In the decisive 5th game the Rockets won 95 - 91 to on the Delta Center floor. Hakeem and Clyde, like they had for most of the series, did all the scoring for the Rockets. Hakeem had 33 and Clyde with 31, with no one else scoring more than 8. On the Jazz side Karl Malone had a mighty 35, Jeff Hornacek knocked down 4 threes on his way to 19 and Stockton chipped in with 12 points. What about David?

Well, David Benoit was a key element to this game. The Rockets were aware of his shaky shooting from deep, and left him open during a decisive sequence of the 2nd half when the Rockets were climbing back and eventually took the lead. David finished with 8 points, but shot quite poorly (3 for 9), and went 2 for 8 from deep. For a point of reference, Karl Malone went 1 for 2 from deep in that game. David shot the ball 6 more times from three than Karl did, and only made 1 more three than he did. It's easy to point to this as empirical evidence that Benoit *cost* the Jazz that game, and that series -- but there are always other factors at play. His NBA career was all downhill from there.

Italy	Rocky Mountain Review, Utah, 2000	Benoit is huge in Japan	His last jersey

Benoit's other notable blips on my selective memory radar include that one time that one of John Stockton's kids broke his arm trying to 'dunk it like Benoit' on a kiddie hoop; and of having a poor season ending exit interview with Jazz Brass one season -- which lead to him parlaying his trade in New Jersey (and later Orlando as a part of an astonishing trade that surrounded Yinka Dare for Rony Seikaly). During his career he played all over the world: Spain (Mayoral Marists in Malaga); Italy (Roseto Sharks); Israel (Maccabi Tel-Aviv); he came back to the Jazz for that 2000-2001 season for a bit; China (Shanghai Sharks alongside Yao Ming); and in Japan (Hitachi Sunrockers, Saitama Broncos). He played till he was 38 years old and was still an integral part of his teams -- especially in leagues where he could thrive as an inside player; never having become a serious outside threat. Today he remains a coach (in some capacity) with the Broncos. (or at least he did, back in 2007-2008)