Showing posts with label Luc Longley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luc Longley. Show all posts

Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Five Epic Errors of Jerry Eugene Sloan

I like Jerry Sloan and respect him for what he has done for the NBA, and what he has brought to the game. He and his staff (Phil Johnson, and any combination of Ty Corbin, Gordon Chiesa, Kenny Natt, Scott Layden, etc) are undervalued developers of talent and teachers of the game. For example, DeShawn Stevenson was not an NBA player when he joined the league -- 4 years learning in Utah made him a player. For one, they completely broke down his shot, and rebuilt it like the $6 Million Dollar man over those 4 years as he worked with Hornacek for quite a bit -- now he's a capable three point shooter, not an athletic Desmond Mason type with ugly mechanics and no outside shot. Another thing that is undervalued is the fact that Jerry Sloan (and staff) is quite good at making game to game adjustments. (Some will argue that he doesn't make meaningful adjustments -- but those are in-game adjustments, which I readily agree he is poor at -- his game to game adjustments are among the best in the league. For proof watch the NBA playoffs)

Can I has technical foul?

Sloan is well respected in league circles, though he is consistently regarded as a few notches down from the likes of Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich, Pat Riley, Don Nelson (who has 3 CoY awards!), Larry Brown, Rudy Tomjanovich, Jeff Van Gundy (who is not currently employed as a coach) and others.

Sloan is well respected, but guys like Bryon Scott, Sam Mitchell, Rick Carlisle, Doc Rivers and Don Chaney have won Coach of the Year Awards. [Opinion Alert: I think that Sloan is a better coach than any of those guys]

Scott is an okay coach, Mitchell is a 5 game loss streak away from being fired, and Doc Rivers was fired as a coach something like 7 times already. Don Chaney has a .406 winning percentage, of if you will allow me, roughly a 60% losing percentage. He has two playoff wins in his career as a coach. He has been a CoY, while Sloan has not.

It's not about Coach of the Year Awards though, as Sloan's top assistant coach (Phil Johnson) was NBA Coach of the Year in 1974-1975. What it is about, though, is understanding why Sloan (for all of his good attributes) seems to be a step behind that first group, and stuck in a situation where former Players with little coaching experience get awards that have so far eluded him. What are the major lacunae in Jerry Sloan's abilities as a coach?

1. Playing Time / Rotation Management:

Only John has retained his hair from those days Not pictured: ref awarding Jordan two free throws Jerry Sloan has had the benefit of having John Stockton QB his teams since Jerry Sloan first became the Head Coach in '88. Stockton has always heeded Jerry's command (like any good soldier), and as such, he was at the mercy of Sloan during the most important 12 games of John Stockton's career -- the NBA Finals in 1996-1997 and 1997-1998. Jer' has coached John for quite a while, so you'd think Jerry knew how important these games were to John's career and future legacy.
Photographed by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images    

But one of Jerry Sloan's major flaws was expressed in those 12 games. Sloan likes to stick to a rotation, which may or may not have contributed to prolonging the careers of his players at the expense of wins. Malone and Stockton both played up to the age of 40 -- but a few seasons before they'd reach those milestones they were in the NBA Finals. In those years Sloan's regimented playing time and rotation scheme called for Stockton to exit the game at the 6 min mark of every first quarter -- regardless of any other circumstances in the game (who was on the floor, were the Jazz on a run, who had fouls, who were they playing against, what the score was, etc). Sure, this may have saved John for the playoffs -- but when the Jazz finally got to the finals, why did he continue to hold John back?

Stockton was easily the best and most consistent player during those finals runs, and it would be pure folly to imply that the Jazz weren't a better Jazz team with Stockton on the floor (no matter how very adequate, and sometimes amazing Howard Eisley actually was during those same years -- you know, like having your back-up PG go coast to coast to hit game winning threes with the audacity to not call a time out, or pass to a starter). The fact that the Jazz were better is not debatable. While there are many factors which influence a win (especially in the NBA Finals), in the games that the Jazz won against the Bulls over those two seasons had John Stockton averaging 37.0 mpg. What about in the Jazz losses? John was anchored to the bench for 33.8 mpg. Correlation does not always translate to causation -- but really Jerry, what were you saving Stockton for when you had him playing 31 mins and 33 mins in game 4 and 6 in the 1998 Finals -- games where the Jazz lost by a COMBINED 5 points, were you saving him for the next round after that, or the off-season? Now, I'm not saying that if Jerry played Stockton more that we would have won the title, no one can say that. What I am saying is that perhaps if he was on the floor more (like to end the 1st quarter, so the Jazz wouldn't start the 2nd quarter already behind and have to fight their way back into every game), the Jazz would have had a better shot to win more games.

  1996-1997       1997-1998    
Finals Game # Stockton's
Minutes Played
Outcome Difference   Stockton's
Minutes Played
Outcome Difference
Game 1 38 Loss -2   35 Win +3
Game 2 39 Loss -12   31 Loss -5
Game 3 37 Win +11   26 Loss -42
Game 4 38 Win +5   31 Loss -4
Game 5 36 Loss -2   38 Win +2
Game 6 37 Loss -4   33 Loss -1

Stockton's MPG in Wins: 37.0 mpg -- Stockton's MPG in Losses: 33.8 mpg.

Current examples of Jerry Sloan's crazy substitution pattern exist in the whole Matt Harpring / Andrei Kirilenko dynamic (where Harpring's mins have been cut a bit, but he still gets way more burn than he needs in the face of evidence that Andrei's magic number is 37 mpg, any less, and he's not amazing). And let's not even get into the whole "younger player" issue (you know, like playing Deron Williams so little as a rookie, and at that, playing him at Shooting Guard instead of Point Guard, and so forth -- but more on that below).

Jerry's use (or disuse) of Stockton at a very critical time is probably the best example of him being bull-headed and sticking to his system against evidence that suggests that it may be okay to run the horses a bit. Then again, this was the Jazz Sloan who used to play Adam Keefe 27.5 mpg or something insane like that.  

2. Very slow to adapt to changes in the game:

Do you ever watch games on TV and when one team goes on a run, to stop the momentum and regroup, the other team's coach may call a time out? Yeah, Jerry Sloan hardly ever does that. Jerry Sloan hoards time outs and possibly thinks that they are like roll-over minutes with his cell phone plan. Unfortunately they are not.

Some coaches can get away with not calling a time out, like Phil Jackson, but that's only because he has some heady vets on his team (like Kobe and Fisher, who have played in a few NBA Finals games) -- Sloan could get away with this back when the average age of the team was 33 and everyone was battle tested in the playoffs like in those Finals teams.

That's not the case with this team -- he should probably use time outs a bit more. Especially when other teams go on their 2nd quarter runs.
Jerry Sloan calls Time out by accident
  Photographed by unknown, NBAE/Getty Images

That's just one thing though . . . adaptation is the key to survival -- in nature and in the NBA. (unless you have tenure, like Sloan does) Sloan does an okay job making game-to-game adjustments as I've already mentioned . . . but he loves his game plan. He will go into a game with one plan, and one plan alone. If the plan does not work, he will continue with that plan just to prove a point or because he is stubborn, or maybe, because he honestly did not believe than an alternative plan was even needed. (As he sits dumbfounded with his mouth agape as the Jazz get blown out in the finals by 42 points in one game) If another guy is really hot, how often do we see any defensive scheme changes to counter this? Jerry Sloan's idea of changing things up defensively seems to just mean shuffling around who defends a particular player. (Hmmm, Tim Duncan is killing Memo one on one, let's put Boozer on him . . . hmmmm . . . Tim Duncan is killing Boozer one on one, let's put Jarron on him . . . . hmmmm . . . Tim Duncan is killing Jarron one on one, let's put Hoffa on him . . .  ad nauseam)

3. His Personal Pet Peeves hamstring the teams he coaches:

You ever wonder why some players just go off on the Jazz? It's partly because of the whole inability to make in-game changes. The other, probably more chronic, issue is the fact that Jerry Sloan has a very diverse and particular set of pet peeves. No, I'm not talking about everyone having to have their shirt tucked in, or no head bands or whatever . . . I'm talking about the fact that he'd rather kiss Phil Jackson's ass than actually set up a defensive scheme that calls for double teaming someone. Do you guys remember that game where LeBron James had his first 50+ point game of his career? The game where it was basically Devon Brown, Matt Harpring and Andrei Kirilenko guarding him one on one for 48 minutes? [just watch that video, each one of his baskets is made by being defended one on one, even after he had scored 39 points, Sloan keeps the Jazz in single, man to man defense] I know LeBron is good, Jerry should too by now. I know he can win a game by scoring 50+ points -- I'd rather go with him passing it up to Anderson Varejao or Eric Snow (who was on the team back then) and have them try to beat us instead.

Sloan asks the ref what this symbol means, and why the other team has the ability to make open jumpers . . . while Scott Layden attempts to eat his blue highlighter Forget the scrubs, if there is anywhere that the Jerry Sloan Jazz want you to beat them from it is from the outside. Utah has always seemed like they just wanted to dare other teams into taking outside shots. This strategy may be a remnant from the Sloan's Dick Motta inspired playbook that was created back when teams did not really shoot often from deep, nor did they have players who were good at that. Times have changed and today's NBA features many teams that not only like to take open three point shots, but have multiple threats from downtown. For example, just look at the LA Lakers who have tons of outside shooters (Kobe, Fisher, Sasha, Vlad-Rad, Farmar, Walton, Ariza and even Odom can knock down jumpers), is it any wonder why we lost to them?

Sloan: oh noes! Teams that can make wide open jumpers when no one is even close to defending the open man -- my ONE weakness . . . how did you know?
Photographed by Barry Gossage, NBAE/Getty Images  

The whole three point line thing seems to be just an under-explored and confusing aspect of the game for Sloan (like the concept of the female orgasm in good, old fashioned, 1950's America). Local heartthrob Kyle Korver admits that the Jazz do not have plays in the playbook for a last second three -- or any plays that really have the three point shot in mind at all. (Which explains why our last offensive play of the 2007-2008 season was a sequence of bricked shots, or why Matt Harpring was taking awkward looking, last second mid-range jumpers for us in previous seasons when we needed a bucket.) 

So he doesn't like to double team, which allows for the other teams' best offensive player to go to work and score a lot of points. He also doesn't like the outside shot -- and that would work great if there was a specific code of honor that all coaches lived by: 'I won't use the three point line, and you don't use it either, deal?' Jerry, other teams will take what you give them, and if you give them open looks from deep, they will take those shots and burry us with them. (And have been for seasons) Anything else?

He is pretty old school, and that old-school-ness can work for some players and be absolutely horrible for others. Greg Ostertag was a flawed player, but I have no doubt that if Ostertag had a more touchy-feely coach that he could have been no lesser than a Luc Longley (who was a solid starter), rather than a guy who was dunked on slightly less than Shawn Bradley.

His major pet peeve is perceived effort. Which probably explains why guys like Adam Keefe and Matt Harpring get burn over the more talented, yet apparently less hard working guys like Chris Morris and Gordan Giricek (when he was here). [Btw, look at Giri's career stats, he wasn't a bad player at all, neither was Morris . . . yet look at how they were used in our system. Were they bad players, or just used poorly?] I understand the meritocracy involved in rewarding hard working players with playing time, but what about wins?  Giricek and Sloan never saw eye to eye
  Photographed by Matthias B. Krause/Icon SMI

Chris Morris and Giricek would absolutely smoke Harpring and Keefe in a game of 2-on-2. They were better players, even if Sloan did not treat them as such. Which brings us to how Jerry Sloan . . .

4. Revels in Power Distance:

Jerry Sloan is the boss. His staff knows it. The owner of the team knows it. The media knows it. And most importantly, his players know it. And as far as being the boss, he's far from the most approachable, understanding, and cooperative one around. He takes issue with star player and scrub alike -- he admitted that if you could freeze time during that moment when Stockton got the defensive rebound and threw the football hail marry pass to Malone in the finals for a key bucket in the 4th quarter that he would have liked to strangle Stockton while the ball was in the air. (Really, who says these things, even if they are true?) The issues that he has with players can stem from a lot of root causes: perceived self-worth (Carlos Arroyo), consistent effort (Greg Ostertag), sexual orientation (John Amaechi), degree of free will and autonomy (Gordan Giricek), inability to read minds and/or complete objectives that are never fully explained or consistent from game to game (Andrei Kirilenko).

How many times do I have to tell you Andrei? You're only allowed to touch the ball on defense when you get weakside blocked shots because Memo and Booz don't play defense! I freely admit that I'm kind of an AK-47 homer. He used to be 'The Man' and has had to adjust to different roles on the fly -- while getting none of the credit that he deserves from Sloan. One season, he's the Point Forward and earns a trip to the All-Star game. The next, he's a leper. The next, he starts off as a leper, but due to injuries, his role is expanded. (Guess what, he started to play better!) His role has oscillated like a yo-yo for the last couple of seasons depending on roster moves and injuries to other guys. (as has his playing time) He can do everything from get a triple double or 5x5 to play point guard in the Western Conference Playoffs against Baron Davis. It is insane to think that he's not the most versatile and over-all talented player on the team.
Photographed by Matt Slocum, AP Photo  

Deron is the best player, and most consistent. This is not up for debate. Neither should be the fact that Andrei is paid on a scale that only makes sense based on his talent and ability -- and not how he is used or applied. (Who chooses how he is used again? The Head Coach.) As good as Andrei is the last few seasons with Jerry Sloan have pretty much ruined him. It would not surprise me to see Andrei leave the NBA for good after his contract is over and return to his native Russia a hero. Why am I blaming Jerry Sloan?

I'm blaming Sloan because he's the one who should be the guy who helps manage players -- especially players who have changing roles and need to make transitions. Probably no transition is harder to make than from being 'The Man' to being the 5th option on offense, yet the thankless workhorse on defense. Phil Jackson, for all of his smarmy-ness and douche-baggery , has been able to coax nutcases like Dennis Rodman, Bison Dele, Ron Harper, J.R. Rider and others to perform at a high level. Sloan and AK have worked together for 8 or so years now, why does AK still not know what he's supposed to be doing?

Maybe it happens to be because Sloan keeps changing his expectations of him, and due to his power distance, AK is the only one who gets the blame when things go wrong. Other players have long since gotten the boot for getting 'sideways' with Jerry Sloan. (Sloan just knows that AK's defense is so valuable that he can't completely kick him off the team) Personality is a big part of communication, and when you give someone so much power it's hard for their sense of 'right' to not come out in their personality. The psychological aspects of motivation are just as puzzling to Jerry Sloan as the three point shot appears to be. I guess in his hard headed universe (you know, the kind where there is no back up plan for any given game) there is only one way to motivate -- by yelling, swearing and saying mean things. This is probably a contributing factor as to why when AK is taken out of the game he sits as far away from Sloan as possible -- Sloan is just an impossible guy sometimes.

5. Makes mistakes, admits to making mistakes, does not change so mistakes can continue to be made in the future:

Jerry Sloan can be 'like' an abusive spouse in his consistent merry-go-round of making mistakes, admitting to making mistakes, suggesting that changes will be made, but actually no real changes are made, and mistakes continue to occur. How many times do we hear (after a season is over) that "I probably should have played __________ (insert breakout player's name here, some recent examples include Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, and Ronnie Brewer) more during the season"? Pretty much every season. Memo had a break out year, and Sloan said that it was a mistake to not have played him more. The next season they draft Deron -- and again, Sloan does not play him as much as he should -- only to say that he should have, after the fact. What happens the next season? Ronnie Brewer doesn't play, and after his 2nd season Sloan basically says "My bad" again. And we just eat it up -- our neutral reaction to his maladaptive behavior reinforces his psychopathology.

Sloan is an old dog, and he does not want to learn new tricks. He has shown some improvement over time (that probably only I have noticed), he allows guys like Memo to shoot threes, and is not completely against a guy throwing an alley-oop now and then. (He still may not like it, but he's not going to bench a guy for getting an assist) Unfortunately, the majority of his change seems to occur over a span of 10 games. I don't want to belabor the point but part of the whole AK situation is that Andrei will complain because of how he is used, Sloan and him will talk and Sloan will agree to make changes, the next few games things are better and AK is more productive, then after 10 games or so, things will revert back to normal and the cycle will start again. (Part of the reason why this Sloan/AK deal is less resolved than it should be happens to be because it is never really resolved fully.)

Don't talk to me about Coach Sloan right now, I'm on vacation How many coaches would make a habit of pissing off their best players by not giving them the playing time that their skills deserve? Deron Williams will never fully heal, and while he respects Sloan as a coach (and his Boss), he still isn't shy about admitting that he knows he should have played more as a rookie (you know, the season where everyone was all about Chris Paul, and no one mentioned Deron because he wasn't playing?). I don't know if Memo cares about how he was treated, but the younger guys probably do care (like Brewer, and likely, C.J.). For the record, Deron, Ronnie, Andrei and Memo comprise 80% of the starting line-up. Those are all guys that Sloan has made significant impressions (first or most recent in the case of Andrei) on as 'the guy who is going to be a dick and not play you, even though you are better than the guys who get playing time'. One wonders who the 'next' guy he'll come out and suggest he should have played more will be? My money is on Fesenko, after next season when he starts off averaging 4.3 mpg with the Jazz only to end up being better than Jarron Collins and finally usurp his mpg.
Photo from memo13.com  

Sloan is old school and I appreciate and respect the fact that when he is wrong he is really okay with saying it like it is. He will admit to being wrong in the instances where he understands that he is wrong. (Unlike a guy like Phil Jackson who will make an infinite number of excuses for anything bad that happens, like blaming the physical play of the other team, their fans, injuries, etc) I would appreciate Sloan even more if he actually stuck to fixing the mistakes, even if that would prevent him from admitting to making them in the first place.

Conclusion:

Wow, if you add it all up these 5 errors truly are epic. This is pretty much a negative review of the only coach my team has had for the last 20 seasons . . . so I'm sure it will have to write a piece about the 5 great things that Sloan does. (And there are at least 5 of them) I don't hate Sloan, but that does not mean that I'm blind to the faults that he does have. I try to be objective on this regard. I think that there is room for improvement (and his staff helps out with this), and I do not know which coach I'd rather have take over my team if you gave me the choice to do so this moment. (Maybe years down the line after Phil Johnson says 'no thanks' I'd be okay with Ty stepping up) All coaches have their flaws, I'm just more intimately aware of Sloan's because I've been an obsessive Jazz fan for the over 60% of my life.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

The Making Guard

It really is de rigueur to say that the Jazz don't really have it going on when it comes to shooting guard. When guys like Doug Collins repeatedly say it during a TV Game like it is some mystical mantra you know that everyone in the world already knows this. For the record there really isn't much to say about the Jazz, apparently. Watch a TV Game and they will mention a few of these things non-stop: Jerry Sloan has been coaching for quite a bit; Matt Harpring is tough/scrappy and comes from a strong football background; they lost to the Bulls twice in the finals, Andrei Kirilenko is reportedly upset about his role; Duh-ron Williams is not that bad; and last, but not least, the Jazz haven't had a solid shooting guard since Jeff Hornacek played here. Anyway, that last point is apparently all too true, as Utah really hasn't had much success with shooting guards in recent memory. Jerry Sloan even called the Jazz 2's out, asking for a Making Guard.

Michael Jordan kills me a little inside everytime I see this Upon the continuum of athleticism Clyde was on the Glide side, and our defenders were on the slide side When motivated by playing against ACC alum Matt Harpring (of G-Tech), VC is full-amazing It got so bad that CJ had to play in this game Don't blame Tracy, it's Yao's fault they lose if you ask me
MJ's torture was Impossibull to forget for Jazz fans The Glide used to kill us in the 80's and the 90's Vince Carter reminds us all how good he is, when he plays the Jazz If the only guy who can score gets 57, then the defense is broken Playoff avg vs Jazz: 26.1 ppg, 7.1 apg, 6.9 rpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg

This is, no doubt, compounded by the fact that Utah has a rich history for getting absolutely owned by dynamic shooting guards. Michael Jordan used to beat up on the Jazz way before he was even an NBA champion. Clyde Drexler was able to score almost at will when he played for Portland -- and the problem never got fixed, he still scored 40 against the Jazz in the playoffs at the end of his career playing for the Houston Rockets. Two years ago shooting guards were having career games against the Jazz. Against the Jazz Michael Redd had something like 9 billion points in one game. Vince Carter is still a superstar . . . though only when he plays Utah. Tracy McGrady, for all of his playoff failures, has put up insane lines in the playoffs vs. Utah. And let's not even forget about Kobe Bryant -- all I gotta say about how he has treated my team over his career is that I sure hope he pays tax on his ownership of the Jazz.

The best 2 guard from my favorite franchise is flasher than the top 2 guard from your franchise Off the top of my head I have to struggle to name 5 shooting guards of any worth who were a big part of the Jazz when they played here. Pistol Pete Maravich, certainly is the top SG of this franchise. (Don't even get me started on why the New Orleans Hornets have retired his jersey . . . they are the Charlotte Hornets franchise, which joined the league many years after his death . . . go hang up a Muggsy Bogues' jersey instead, at least he played for your franchise!)

Next two on the list would have to be Dr. Dunkenstein aka. Darrell Griffith and Jeff Hornacek. It's hard to say which player was better for the franchise, and both deserve to be in the Top 3 for their combination of excellent three point shooting and nicknames (right, Horny?). Griffith was an instrumental player in those early Jazz teams that struggled and clawed their way into the NBA Playoffs for the first time ever. Hornacek fandom and revisionism has reached nearly Deity-like levels, as he was the third guy in those Stockton-to-Malone NBA Finals teams. (While averaging less than 15 ppg in his time here) After that it pretty much becomes slim pickings . . .

I guess Jeff Malone gets the nod here, but he was better with the Washington Bullets methinks. Either him or Dell Curry, who didn't do anything here. In fact, there is an equally rich history of the Jazz getting rid of some players way too early, and having them develop into pretty good players over time. Dell Curry (1 season) is one of them. Raja Bell became a solid NBA player in his 2 seasons here, then split town to play in Phoenix. Tim Legler (more of a point guard) was a three point ace who played in all of three games for the Utah Jazz. Sasha "Don't call me Aleksandar" Pavlovic was a promising talent who now plays with LeBron in Cleveland after playing in 79 games in his Rookie season for Utah. Same deal with Kelly Tripucka, except he played in Utah for 2 seasons. All of that said, looking at the complete list of players who have played for this franchise, you have to at least admit that The Locksmith has an outside shot at being one of the Top 5 best shooting guards in Jazz franchise history. (If we look at the careers of guards who at some stage have played for the Jazz, and not by purely what they did in a Jazz uniform -- D-Steve managed only 5.9 ppg, heck John Starks two seasons with Utah was better with a 7.0 ppg, but DeShawn has become a much better player than more than half of the shooting guards who have played in Utah) Alas, the fact that a true Top 5 is hard to even discuss, let alone agree upon is evidence enough that the Jazz have had some trouble with this whole "Shooting Guard" thing.

There appears to be no end in sight to the talent rich pool of shooting guards in the NBA. In the Northwest division alone the Jazz have to fend off Allen Iverson, Brandon Roy and Kevin Durant for starters. It gets even worse when you add in all of the other talented guards in the west. I guess the solution is to either get one of these dynamic, show stopping guards onto our roster (through trades of player development), or at the very least, try to close the disparity a bit -- to discover this proverbial two who can play defense and also be, as Coach Sloan calls it, a "Making Guard". (How did we ever win games against the Chicago Bulls when they had Jordan and we had Bobby Hansen checking him?)

Right now Utah has two things going for it at the two guard, they have youth and quantity. Hopefully this translates (through some algebraic formula) into a chance for realized potential, and later down the line, depth and quality. It's much easier to platoon a size position with a number of guys (Like the Bulls did at center with Longley, Perdue and Wennington) than at a skill position. As of today the Jazz bring a whole mess of guys to the table.

Will Brewer develop into more than a shorter David Benoit?

Will Kover be able to do more for the Jazz than shoot the ball?

Will C.J. get enough playing time to make a difference this season?

Smooth scoring and sealth athleticism aside, is he an NBA player?

Name:

Ronnie Brewer

Kyle Korver

C.J. Miles

Morris Almond

Experience: 2 yrs pro, 23 yrs old 5 yrs pro, 26 yrs old 3 yrs pro, 21 yrs old 1 yrs pro, 22 yrs old
Current Role: Starting Shooting Guard, 4th or 5th option on offense. Scorer off the bench, plays during crunch time due to insane FT% and 3PT ability. Starts at the 2 or 3 if the regular starters are injured, otherwise does not play Prospect gaining experience by being 'The Man' for the Flash, in the DL.
Best Case for 2008-2009: Develops into a defensive stopper and keeps defense honest with outside shot while continuing to shoot a higher FG% than most other SGs. Improves defense & ball handling to the point where he is more than a spot up shooter. Some roster moves could promote him to starter. Finally puts it all together and earns the right to start in the NBA. Shows a consistent enough effort on defense to be on the floor long enough to be more than just D-Will's boy. Becomes a rotation player for the Jazz by showing the coaches that he does more than score the ball, or turn it over. Potential to make Korver expendable.
Worst Case for 2008-2009: Never develops consistent outside shot, slowly becomes off the bench energy guy at Small Forward as career advances Risk/Reward for playing such a min/maxed guy crunch time minutes becomes too risky as lack of defensive ability and over-all game too much to overlook because of solid shooting ability. Career fails to take off for 4th season in a row as he dreams of alternate reality where he plays for the Oklahoma City team. Inability to be a complete player negates his technically proficient scoring skills and he never gets significant playing time for the Jazz for the 2nd straight season.

This season will be quite telling to see if any of these guys are more than what they've shown so far. Kover has been in the league the longest, and as a result, shows the most polish. Jerry Sloan trusts him the most as well, often going down the stretch with him playing alongside the four principal players (William, Kirilenko, Boozer and Okur).  He, aside from the occasional blocked shot, doesn't do much on defense. 'Kover for three!!!' brings the crowd to their feet like 'Hornacek for three!!!' used to, though. So that has to count for something.

Ronnie Brewer is the incumbent starter at shooting guard, and he makes a lot of his shots (55.8 fg%!!!), they just aren't the type of shots that usual shooting guards have to rely upon. I haven't read this anywhere, but the super dynamic Brewer (coming into the NBA Draft was purported to be a 1/2/3, and not just a 2) is probably a better small forward than a shooting guard. Until he develops a more consistent outside shot that keeps defense honest, he can't be the guy we need at the two for the long term. (Floor spacing is poor if your shooting guard can't shoot from very far) He is very, very young still, and has the potential to get better I think.

C.J. and Morris really need experience more than anything. Almond played four years of NCAA ball, and is actually older than C.J.! Alternatively, Miles has "played" in the NBA the second most out of this foursome. Miles clearly has the most potential, as he has shown flashes of being able to do everything from D-up Carmelo Anthony, dunk on Amare Stoudemire and hit threes. He could be that "making" guard that Sloan wants. Will he ever be a dynamic guard like a T-Mac, Kobe, Wade or Carter? Probably not, but he can still be a solid NBA starter. (Surely with a better career than Jeff Malone or Dell Curry, right?)

Morris Almond was the guy who lost the most when the Jazz matched C.J.'s offer. He would have gotten more playing time (theoretically at least), and been the best 3rd string shooting guard in the league. While C.J. shows flashes of doing some amazing things, Almond shows more frequent flashes of doing a much more focused number of things well. Living in Detroit I get to see a lot of Rip Hamilton. Ask Rip to be T-Mac and he would fail. Ask Rip to do a few things well (come off of screens and shoot midrange jumpers), and he can do that to the point of being an All-Star. Almond would flourish in a system that asks only so much out of him. There is nothing that Rip does on offense that Almond can't do just as well. With time and seasoning I think that Almond can be a consistent NBA performer.

Are any of these four guys going to make Jazz fans less worried when guys like Kobe come to town? No. Are any of these four guys going to be a Top 5 Shooting guard in franchise history? Maybe, but it's way too early to tell. Can any of these guys be that Making Guard who makes things happen for the Jazz? Absolutely! Now we just have to wait and see how 2008-2009 plays out to get our answer to that question.

These four players will ultimately have something to say about 'the last good Shooting Guard for the Jazz'. They each have the skills, talent and potential to at the very least, require commentators like Doug Collins say something good about our guards for once. And that would be a huge upgrade the position hasn't seen in years.