Utah Jazz 2008-2009 Season Preview!

Yes! It's finally here! The AllThatJazz season preview!

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

This is so overdue, but this is so exhausting. Other blogs have already put their previews out. My excuse for this being so late is that this season preview is so chock-full of Awesome! that it needed this long to get it done. To simplify things, I've been leaking it out over the last month. But let's get down to the nitty gritty:

2008-2009 Season Forecast:

Anything less than 65 wins this season (including playoffs) is abject failure. That's it. It's year 4 in our rebuilding, by this time we should be serious contenders or break up. As fate would have it, this may be our last year with this group anyway . . . so there's no time like now to get it done. The Jazz will win their division and secure homecourt in the 1st round of the playoffs for the first time since Stockton and Malone were playing. The Jazz have their sights on the promised land -- and you should too if you have an honest appraisal of their roster.

Team Roster:

							Season Expectations:	Bonus:
	2	Brevin Knight	5'10	166	PG	-	link	Top Transaction of the Off-Season
	5	Carlos Boozer	6'9	266	PF	C	link
	8	Deron Williams	6'3	207	PG	SG	link	Star Player Spotlight
	9	Ronnie Brewer	6'7	227	SG	SF	link
	13	Mehmet Okur	6'11	263	C	PF	link
	15	Matt Harpring	6'7	230	SF	SG	link
	17	Ronnie Price	6'2	184	PG	SG	link	Top Breakout Player?
	22	Morris Almond	6'6	225	SG	SF	link
	24	Paul Millsap	6'8	250	PF	SF	link	Top Breakout Player?
	26	Kyle Korver	6'7	212	SG	SF	link	Top Breakout Player?
	31	Jarron Collins	6'11	249	C	PF	link	Top Position Battle - Back up Center
	34	C.J. Miles	6'6	227	SG	SF	link
	41	Kosta Koufos	7'0	265	C	PF	link	Top Position Battle - Back up Center
	44	Kyrylo Fesenko	7'1	300	C	-	link	Top Position Battle - Back up Center
	47	Andrei Kirilenko	6'9	225	SF	PF	link	X-Factor

Special Features:

• Coaching focus:
  • The 5 Epic Errors of Jerry Sloan
  • The 5 Epic Qualities of Jerry Sloan
• Position Spotlight -- Shooting guard
• Full pre-season stats
• National TV schedule of Utah Jazz games and what to watch for!!!
• Key to the season: The first 20 games
• Playing time / Rotation Breakdown

Conclusion:

Sure, my concept of how well the team will do is far different from ESPN's first take, but hey, I pride myself on knowing my own team better than they do. We'll win our division, be a top 4 team in the West and finish the season with a combined 65 wins.

AK admits that shooting % will suffer off the bench

Andrei Kirilenko, I suppose, is like a method actor (specifically the Meisner technique). He has to really live his role 24/7, he needs to really get into it, in order to do well in it. I guess this explains why he spends so much time having difficulty adjusting between roles depending on where Jerry uses him. For example, back in 2005-2006 -- the first Boozer hamstring injury season -- AK had a bad pre-season, but when he had to end up playing PF because Booz when down, AK was back to his DeShawn/Arroyo days and produced accordingly. I guess warming up is very important to him, and the more time between the shoot-around and the pre-game warm up till he plays is really going to screw things up for him. Or at least, that's what he suggests will happen. I'm sure it's a give and take between what he is used to and what he needs to do until his familiar with being the 6th man on an NBA team at this stage in his career. Then again, fellow Russian Pavlov would state that you can teach an old dog some new tricks . . . so I think AK will be fine in time.

Photographed by Danny Chan LA for the Salt Lake Tribune

"Kirilenko did acknowledge that his shooting might suffer if he has to wait seven minutes to check into a game. 'It is harder, but what I can do?' he said. 'Just go and warm up a little big better. I'm trying to do the same routine every time.' " (Kirilenko, via R. Siler, 2008)

That's the essence of conditioning, and when it becomes second nature to him (you know, bringing back the whole Meisner issue of repetition) he'll be able to produce better. I understand that he needs to 'see' a lot of shots go up (and go in) in order to feel offensively confident. He's just going to have to visualize a bit more, instead of having the advantage of going into the game warmed up.

Coming off the bench isn't easy, that's why so few players are actually known for being effective at it -- like the Microwave was. He got hot at the touch of a button, instantly. I think that's a mental component that our friendly neighborhood Russian may not have. I guess like most things this season, we're just going to have to see how it turns out.

Utah Jazz Pre-Season 2008-2009: Position Battle

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the main battle is at the shooting guard spot. In this case conventional wisdom is wrong. There *is* no battle at shooting guard anymore, it's (1) Ronnie Brewer, (2) Kyle Korver, and (3) does it matter anymore as both of those guys average over 20 mpg? It kind of does, but only so far as we can understand that we have quality, depth and youth at the SG spot. That's no more the problem . . . the new problem is back up center. And it's a big problem. This has been the real position battle since draft night.

Why is it a big problem? Well, all of our other spots seem pretty good. In the absolute end of days situation, PG can be handled by D-Will, Ronnie Price, Brevin Knight, CJ Miles and Andrei Kirilenko. Also Brewer has okay handles. SG has a platoon of guys, and half of those guys can also play SF, which already has Andrei, Matt Harpring, and in some situations, Paul Millsap. We have the best PFs in the league.Center? After Memo (who is severely under-rated) we're looking at:

• a guy who has gotten worse every year he's been in the league in Jarron Collins
• someone who is applying for the job of 'the new Ostertag' in Fesenko
• and a completely unproven 19 year old rookie who will be a player in this league, just not this season, in Kosta

Larry	Curly	and Moe

All three photos by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Unless the Jazz go small a lot this season, and have Boozer play 10+ MPG at the 5 then one of these three guys is going to need to step up and manage to play up to par with the rest of our talented roster. Okur averages around 33 mpg, but essentially, it should be up to 35 at least -- you know, because he produced 18.7 and 11.2 when he played at least 35 mpg last season. This would (thankfully) leave us with only about a quarter of basketball action where one of these three ghastly ghouls would need to step out on the floor.

Making things even more sports movie cliche is the fact that all three of these guys (JC, KF and KK) all have something "to prove" this season. Jarron Collins is in a contract year (yeah, I know, sounds funny doesn't it?) and wants to prove to his coach, his teammates -- and to himself that he's not done yet. His contract expires and he wants to be getting another one.

Kyrylo Fesenko is the import that no one knew about and people fell in love with. The honeymoon was short with the media, and now all he does is get killed in print, on the Internet, and by his own coaches. He wants to prove that he wasn't a flash in the pan player who is going to never reach his potential. Especially with a younger, more scoring adept player breathing down his neck he wants to show everyone that he is the future at the 5 for the Jazz.

The last guy is Mr.Rookie, small town mom and apple pie (and souvlaki), Luke Skywalker on Tatooine boyscout who wants to prove that he belongs in the NBA 1 year out of having a designated homeroom, lunch period and recess.

It's insane that I think the Jazz are contenders this year when I look at our back up bigmen . . . not a bonafide player among them. Then I'm reminded that we used to roll with Greg Foster and an ancient Armond Gilliam in the paint in previous years.

Whomever wins this position battle is going to decide their fate with the Jazz -- yes, another incentive. If Collins wins he may finagle his way into another 2 year contract with the Jazz and eat up another roster spot. If Fesenko wins then he'll allow Koufos an entire year (if he needs it) to play in the NBA D-League while getting himself (Fes) the experience he needs playing 5 in the NBA to the point where he'll be a contributor when the playoffs come around for the 8-10 mpg that the Jazz will need out of him. If Kosta wins then he doesn't have to go to the NBA D league, which is kind of what you expect from your 1st round draft picks who play one of your most shallow positions.

Aside from what they expect, what do I expect from them? Well, you can check it out here (Jarron Collins, Kyrylo Fesenko, Kosta Koufos); but in short . . . I expect them to play to their strengths and in the case of the younger players -- I expect them to split time in SLC and Orem this season. Fes has done worse than I expected, but still hold out hope that he can win this position battle and contribute more than the other two guys could this season. Only time will tell if I'm right . . .

Wages of Wins on Morris Almond

This is a bit older (Oct 14th, 2008), but a necessary look at Morris Almond from one of the most respected stat guys out there -- David Berri from The Wages of Wins. Basically he appraises Mobe to be better offensively (well, scoring-ingly) than the average NBA shooting guard, but below average when it comes to rebounds (by 1 rpg), steals (by 0.6 spg), personal fouls (by 0.7 fpg), assists (by 2.5 apg) and turn overs (where he gets 1.4 more turn overs per game). For the record he does block more than the average NBA shooting guard.

So, yeah -- you're saying "tell me something I don't already know" . . . well, I come from an unconventional school of thought. One where you eventually have to look at the type of player you have not based on what he is not, but on the type of things that got him to this stage. Almond went to high school with Atlanta's Josh Smith -- and recognized that he did not have the all around game (or athleticism) to do what Smith did; so he had to carve out a special niche for himself to excel in.

Almond's rookie stats don't look great compared to the average NBA shooting guard . . . unless you a) recognize that these are rookie stats, and b) you actually look at the stuff that Almond has really put in the time to work on -- and excel in. No one said on draft night that Morris Almond was going to be an NBA ready defender or playmaker from day one. What people said is that the kid can score at the NBA level.

According to the stats from the article above he can. The average NBA shooting guard (over 48 minutes) scores 20.8 ppg, goes to the line less than 5 times a game, and shoots a little above 48 adjusted fg% and about 80 ft%. What about Mobe? Dude scores a whopping 33.1 ppg (you know, almost 13 more ppg than "average"), he gets to the line 10 times a game (twice as much as 'average') and shoots a better percentage from FG and FT range.

So yeah . . . below average (by some really small margins like 1 rpg, or 0.7 fpg), but above average by some huge margins when it comes to what he is good at.

Still . . . Jerry Sloan isn't going to play him until he gets the all-around game he's going to need if he's ever going to be a starter . . . so yeah, see ya in Orem, Mo' ! And check out the article (link at the top of the post) from The Wages of Wins if you want to go a little deeper!

2008-2009 Utah Jazz Pre-Season Stats!

Yeah, here are the normal stats (and a few that I made up as well) . . . but presented by offensive stats and then defensive stats, any chart I try to post here ends up looking insane when I try to put it all in one. (And the image file would be similarly huge -- almost as huge as my expectations for this season!) Also if you are a huge Lyde or McNamara (or whatever that 3rd guy's name is) fan, I'm sorry, I did not bother to input their stats in my spreadsheet. You know, I don't really care about them that much. And Jazzfans? Deep down inside, neither should you. (oooooh, burn, take that Mwukelounke!) I respect Gabe Muoneke deeply as a person and a professional athlete. It is a shame that he was cut on the 22nd of October. He will no doubt catch on with another club and continue his successful climb to the NBA.

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Offense -- MPG is minutes per game; GMS is # of games played; PPG is Points per Game; FG%, 3PT% and FT% should be startlingly obvious. PPS is Points per Shot, as seen as the # of Points / Field Goals Attempted (FGA). SPM is Shots per Minute showing how frequently someone shoots a shot -- the smaller the number the more often the player shoots the ball when on the court. Ast and A:TO are assists and the Assist to Turn Over ratio.

	MPG	Gms	PPG	FG%	3PT%	FT%	PPS	SPM	Ast	A:TO
A.Kirilenko	24.0	7	9.0	47.2	16.7	75.7	1.75	4.67	2.86	1.54
B.Knight	15.0	5*	3.2	55.6	0.0	75.0	1.78	8.33	4.00	2.86
C.Boozer	25.2	5	14.2	49.0	--	79.3	1.45	2.57	2.00	0.45
C.J.Miles	19.9	7	6.6	32.5	33.3	69.6	1.15	3.48	2.00	1.27
D.Williams	21.3	6*	11.0	47.7	28.6	91.7	1.50	2.91	6.67	3.64
J.Collins	7.0	2*	1.0	33.3	--	0.0	0.67	4.67	1.5	undef
K.Fesenko	14.6	6**	2.6	26.7	--	54.5	0.87	4.87	1.00	1.00
K.Korver	22.3	7	11.0	50.9	57.1	100.0	1.40	2.84	1.71	1.20
K.Koufos	9.6	5*	4.2	55.6	100.0	0.0	1.17	2.67	0.40	0.33
M.Almond	17.4	5	8.3	36.4	33.3	66.7	1.00	2.64	0.20	0.17
M.Okur	21.3	7	10.1	49.1	37.5	63.6	1.29	2.71	1.24	2.00
P.Millsap	26.7	7	10.6	52.7	0.0	64.0	1.35	3.40	1.29	1.29
R.Brewer	23.6	7	10.9	54.5	40.0	60.9	1.38	3.00	0.86	1.20
R.Price	20.8	5	6.4	44.8	0.0	66.7	1.10	3.57	2.80	1.40

* Brevin Knight got injured after playing only 3 minutes in one game; Deron Williams got injured after playing only 6 minutes in one game; Jarron Collins got injured and had to be pulled after 7 minutes in each game; Kosta Koufos got injured after playing only two minutes in one game. All four of these player's stats are therefore not completely indicative of what their averages should have been.

** Kyrylo Fesenko was selected as an injury replacement to shoot free throws in the game Deron Williams was injured in. He did not play any minutes in the game, and his only statistics were going 2 for 3 at the free throw line. So his stats are similarly not completely indicative of what his averages should have been.

Jarron Collins has an undefined Assist to Turn over ratio as he has three assists and zero turn overs.

Defense -- MPG and GMS are the same from above. ORPG is Offensive rebounds per game. RPG is rebounds per game. SPG is steals per game. BPG is blocks per game. B+S/PF is (Blocks + Steals) / personal fouls. PFPG is personal fouls per game. TOPG is turn overs per game.

	MPG	Gms	ORPG	RPG	SPG	BPG	B+S/PF	PFPG	TOPG
A.Kirilenko	24.0	7	1.67	2.86	0.57	2.29	2.22	1.29	1.86
B.Knight	15.0	5*	--	1.20	1.80	--	1.13	1.60	1.40
C.Boozer	25.2	5	3.00	10.2	0.80	0.20	0.31	3.20	4.40
C.J.Miles	19.9	7	0.43	2.14	0.57	0.29	0.27	3.14	1.57
D.Williams	21.3	6*	--	1.33	1.83	0.17	6.00	0.33	1.83
J.Collins	7.0	2*	1.00	2.00	1.00	--	0.67	1.50	0.00
K.Fesenko	14.6	6**	1.80	3.80	0.20	0.40	0.25	2.40	1.00
K.Korver	22.3	7	0.43	2.57	0.43	0.43	0.43	2.00	1.43
K.Koufos	9.6	5*	0.80	2.80	--	0.60	0.43	1.40	1.20
M.Almond	17.4	5	0.80	1.60	0.40	--	0.15	2.60	1.20
M.Okur	21.3	7	1.14	3.71	0.86	0.29	0.32	3.57	0.57
P.Millsap	26.7	7	2.71	6.43	1.57	0.36	0.60	3.57	1.00
R.Brewer	23.6	7	1.00	2.71	1.14	0.29	0.91	1.57	0.71
R.Price	20.8	5	--	1.20	0.80	--	0.33	2.40	2.0

Player Analysis --

• AK looks a little sluggish though this may be a reflection of me pouring over his stats the last few days and this is entirely a too small sample size of games where he's averaged only 24 mpg. His points per shot is pretty much a career high though -- more a reflection of getting to the line over 5 times a game in so few minutes on the floor.
• I'm impressed with Knight, I didn't think that he'd be able to get 1.8 spg in his limited minutes, but he proved me wrong. His APG and A:TO ratio were right near his averages though, so that's awesome. Why did he bother taking a three pointer though, he knows he's not good at those?
• Boozer did not play a lot of games, but finishes the preseason averaging a double double, but I'd like to see his FG% go up a bit.
• CJ needs to find his shot because, man, he isn't doing too much of anything else on the floor.
• Brewer came to play this season, and you can tell. He's hitting 40% of his threes this season so far, and he's still shooting 55 fg%, which is flat out insane. Dude needs to pass a bit more though.
• Deron Williams does not foul people, his stats are insane as a result. The two things that Chris Paul was ahead of him was in SPG and FT%, Deron is getting 1.8 spg and shooting over 90% from the line this Pre-Season. Wow!
• Collins, Fesenko and Koufos all have their good points and their bad points. Koufos shoots a high percentage (though he missed all 6 of his FTs in preseason), Collins never turns the ball over and dishes, and Fesenko is a good quote. (Well, to his credit Fesenko did have that one good game where he had a double double -- one of the few for the entire team this pre-season. The problem was that it was ONLY ONE GOOD GAME) If you mixed them up you'd end up with one good basketball player and one really bad one (and one really bad Golf Cart driver).
• Korver has been shooting the lights out, 50.9 fg%, 57.1 3pt%, and 100% from the FT line. He doesn't do much else but shoot, but compared to Almond he looks like Oscar Robertson.
• Okur looks like he's sleepwalking again . . . less than 4 rpg from your starting center is bad. It looks worse when compared to his efforts in the post season last year, where he had games of 18 and 19 boards among his average of a Playoff double double. His assists to turn over ratio is 3rd best on the team though, but his FT% was horrible.
• Paul Millsap played the 2nd most minutes and got the 2nd most rebounds. He stole the ball a lot, but I'd like to see some more blocks -- and please improve that fg% man!
• Ronnie Price, like so many other guys, was quite banged up, and he didn't make any of his threes.
• The fact that Koufos and Almond shoot the ball more frequently than everyone else on the team (except Carlos Boozer) is not going to help them earn playing time under Sloan. Those two and Fesenko are going to spent a lot of time in Orem this year again from what I've seen in these Pre-season games.
• Matt Harpring currently has no stats, and there are a lot of fans who would like to keep it that way

Things to look for this season: Andrei Kirilenko

It's seems like it's Andrei Kirilenko day here at:All That Jazz . . . or at least it does if you read this rant (basically Part 1 of what to look for from Andrei this season).
	Blocking Yao Ming	Using hair Gel	Looking to dime

Speaking of which . . . what are the three things should we look for from AK-47 this season:

1. Role Play: Being the 4th or 5th option on offense with the starters and standing around watching other guys play with the ball didn't really work for Andrei. His stats suggest that he "can" be the same guy, but it's hard when he's playing only 24 mpg, and in the time he's playing he doesn't get to see the ball except on shots that he blocks. Being more involved with the ball as one of the major cogs on offense for the bench is going to help quite a bit. I saw this one move from this preseason that had me absolutely drooling. Millsap posted up on his man and got the ball from Knight. Andrei's man went over to help and Millsap picked up his dribble. Andrei cut from the perimeter towards the basket and Millsap found him. Andrei sucked in all the defenders as he had a clear path to the basket -- and instead of shooting it he kicked it out to the right corner where Korver was all alone. Naturally, Korver buried the three point shot. Last season our bench had two plays: the Harpring curl (sometimes used for Korver instead), and the turn over. Having Andrei play with the bench is going to make our bench so much more dynamic. If the starters can tread water on defense for long enough when Andrei sits then our team can be quite good -- especially with a 6th man who can basically play starter minutes, defend and give you 14.5/6/5/2/2 in that time.
2. Be a glue guy off the bench: Andrei explained that when he gets to watch the game develop he can take note of things that are happening right on the floor, and stuff that isn't going so right as well. When he comes in he can try to help fill the gap of whatever was missing. (Most likely it's going to be defense, but hey, call me a cynic) Coming off the bench is going to be really good for him as the 2nd quarter usually starts off as a time for Harpring to have the green light to shoot. Andrei's points were down the last few seasons because he just plan stopped shooting the ball. The last five seasons have gone from 11.9 fga as an All-Star to 10.2 fga, 10.6 fga, then 6 fga and last season 7.6 fga. I don't think Andrei needs to be shooting over 10 times a game, but when he shot around 9 times a game he ends up scoring 14 points or so. Supplanting Harpring at this juncture may allow him to shoot if a bit more. However, my concept of glue guy doesn't mean shooting the ball all the time -- it's just that being on the floor with less talented offensive players may mean that coach calls his number a bit more often.  Knowing Andrei, if Sloan drew up a play for him to shoot, he'd probably find a way to pass off the shot to someone else anyway. Still -- Andrei's versatility may work to everyone's advantage as a glue guy, instead of a guy who is more talented than Battier being forced into playing a Battier like role with the starters.
3. Expect the unexpected: This could mean a variety of things . . . I fully expect Andrei to throw some really crazy passes this season. Having him handle the ball more with the 2nd unit and pass to guys who he doesn't get to play with a lot is going to result in some really spectacular early season turn overs. This could also mean that Andrei -- him, and not the fans -- should expect the unexpected. Harpring is gingerly participating in shooting drills now, and as I mentioned previously, the main reason why AK is going to the bench is to replace the heady play of veteran shooter Matt Harpring. What happens when Harpring comes back? Jerry Sloan already talked about how Harpring doesn't need to participate in pre-season because he knows his role and what 'we' are trying to do here. What if the starting frontcourt gets clobbered on defense without AK watching their back? The whole AK as a super 6th man concept may end before the honeymoon period of having him anchor the 2nd unit does! We may see Andrei back in the starting line-up before we know it.

Personally I don't really care, after developing a massive migraine looking at over 250 games I can say that he just needs to play 35+ mpg to be awesome. The last two seasons he played 29 and 30 mpg. He also wasn't awesome. Three seasons ago he played 37 mpg, and got 15/8/4/3 and 1.5 steals per game. Five seasons ago he played 37 mpg and was an All-Star. Doesn't take a genius, or a 70 million year old coach, to figure it out.

Things to look for this season: Matt Harpring

Love him or hate him, we can all be pretty secure in the knowledge that when (not "if") Matt gets back off the IR, that he's going to play at least 10 mpg at small forward for the rest of the season [Unless Ceejay levels up a few times while Matty is out and becomes a real NBA Starter, of course, but I'm not going to hold my breath]. I could go on and make this a very short post, but I think Matty deserves better.

Like so many other players (Mark Eaton, Thurl Bailey, Jeff Malone, David Benoit, Donyell Marshall, etc), his best years were playing off of Stockton and Malone -- but those years were almost a lifetime ago. In my mind he is now probably best suited as a 'life coach' for our younger players . . . if they could adopt his work ethic then I think we'll be sitting pretty at the center spot in a few seasons. That said: he is still useful on the court. Before you leave this website forever let me further explain what I mean. Harpring is a physical three who rebounds well for his position and doesn't back down from anyone. In recent seasons he's been a thorn in the side of everyone from Carmelo Anthony to Ron Artest. Guys like Korver, Miles and Almond are just not going to be able to make Ron Artest get ejected or take 'Melo out of his game. He's useful in specific situations, especially because we do not have anyone who can replace what he gives on the 'toughness' angle just yet. [I highly recommend this uploaded video by xunlucky17x]

That does not mean I think he needs to be playing big minutes, but he's a special type of player that is useful in certain situations. He's like your 2nd string fullback in American football -- he may not be the starter, or useful in all situations, but on a 3rd and short he's going to get the job done. If you put Harp out there to muscle up against another physical small forward then he is actually useful.

If the other team isn't using a physical small forward then don't put Harpring in the game. Simple as that. Why? Well, for starters: statistically he is getting worse, his shooting range seems to be positively correlated with my shrinking hair line. Back in the early 2000's Harpring could hit threes and I had a full head of hair. Now Harpring misses layups and I have to comb my hair down. It's a sad time for both of us. You don't want to have Harpring on the floor unless you really need to have him on the floor. (Especially when we're close to a title and need to have our younger guys be developed now rather than later) If you need any other reason why you don't want him on the floor just ask yourself if you think Harpring is quick enough to defend any perimeter small forwards any more. The answer is, of course, no.

Harp will not let go of playing time without a fight, just like he wont let go of this ball unless he gets to keep Luke Ridnour's forearm as a prize.	Click on the image to make it bigger

Here's a chart that (tries to) depict how many games Matty has played in each of the 6 seasons that he's been with the Utah Jazz. [This is the dark blue bar] This chart also (tries to) depict how many minutes he plays per game.[This is the light blue bar] As you can see he usually plays over 70 games per season (he has averaged 75.5 games per season in the last four seasons). He played 36.6 minutes per game back in 2003-2004 -- his most as a Jazz player -- but since then there's been quite a decline which corresponds with accumulated injuries and advancing age.

If you've done the math (and I have, if you want I can e-mail you the spread sheet) over the last four seasons (from age 28 to 31) his minutes per game has been going down by (on average) 4.625 mpg in each successive season. [Data: -3.5 between 2002-2003 and 2003-2004; -5.7 between 2003-2004 and 2004-2005; -1.9 between 2004-2005 and 2005-2006; and -7.4 between 2006-2007 and last season, 2007-2008] For you math geeks out there who remember their y=mx +b and slope = y2-y1 / x2-x1 formulas the average rate of declined MPG (in this case, -4.625) is also equal to the slope if you use the points (2, 36.6) and (6, 18.1).

If you extrapolate this to the next season, this current season (2008-2009), then you get 18.1 - 4.625 . . . or 13.475 mpg. I could live with Harpring playing 13.5 mpg this season, I'd be happier with 12, but I'll take what I can get. It remains to be seen if his playing time decline is going to be so linear . . . he may very well just play in under 70 games this season, but in those games play closer to 20 mpg for all I know. All of this gobble-dee-gook aside, what three things can we look for this season from Matt Harpring?

1. He's not going to be rushed back: The Jazz have enough wings to weather the storm until he comes back to "anchor" the 2nd unit with his veteran play. (Anchor, as in, he brings the play down, check out his +/- stats sometime, 4th worst on the team last season) In as way, his injury has come at a good time when Sloan is more open to trying out different line-ups and open to developing his young talent. We've already seen C.J. Miles take the starting role while AK supplants Harpring and the key bench veteran. Matt Harpring's current injury is the main reason why Jerry Sloan has had to change up the line up this off-season. (Sure, Deron's injury is an acute issue right now, but the line up was changed before he got injured) You can be sure that when he comes back that Jerry Sloan will shuffle things all over again. Right now AK is being put in the veteran off the bench role that our second unit really needs for stability. This is usually Harpring's role, and I can easily see Jerry Sloan immediately revert to putting AK at the 3 in the starting line up after Harpring is back. Though, Jerry does some funny things time to time, like how in 2005-2006 to finish the season Memo was the starting 4, and Carlos was the 5, because Memo had been playing the 4 most of the season while Carlos was on the injured reserve. I can't really predict what's going to happen when Harpring gets back, but I know that he's going to play. He's not going to give up playing time without a fight either. Thankfully, there is no current time table for his return, so we're not going to see him for a while.
2. Frustrate the fans: Some fans are going to complain that when he comes back that he still plays too many minutes. Some will complain that he's not playing enough and that "we need his _____" (defense, rebounding, toughness, scoring, veteran play, hustle, flops, crew cut, fouls, whiteness ?). Both sides are not going to be placated until he retires from the NBA and joins the Georgia High school Football Hall of Fame. (Apparently there is such a thing, and here's Harpring's high school team's record) He's one of the most divisive players in Utah Jazz history, and part of the reason stems from the fact that many fans would rather develop his eventual replacement instead of keep giving a guy all these minutes as he breaks down every season. (Jazz career average for games played per season: 68.5) He's injured right now, and there's no time table for his return -- so the "sit Harpring" contingent will have an undisclosed amount of time to sit Harpring all they want. To be clear, I think I fall neatly in that contingent as well, but I don't think that it's time to take him out behind the barn and shoot him yet. (That's next season...)
3. Continue to play physical, smash-mouth basketball: If the Jazz are in the playoffs, he is going to play in them. I don't know when his immune system is going to be back online, but I can empathize with him as I've been a little sick lately. When he does come back, I feel bad for the forwards that'll match up with him when he's finally been given the green light to play at full velocity. (Speed just isn't a strong enough word to describe his game) He only knows how to play the game one way, and you can be sure that he'll be a force to be reckoned with when he's on the court this season. (Just a force for which team, ours or theirs, remains to be seen) If we have to face a team with a physical small forward in the playoffs I can see him getting a lot more burn than 10-14 mpg like he will this regular season. I'm pretty sure that he can rattle a guy like Artest if they face off against each other in the playoffs.

I don't know when he's going to play for us, but it's a safe bet that the Jazz may start off by watching his minutes very closely. This may contribute to continuing a downward trend in minutes played per game for Matt, and as a 32 year old with the knees of a 45 year old, I'm sure his body (if not his mind) will appreciate it. Now only if he can continue to teach the younglings (Kosta and Kyrylo) how to throw their body around and play physical like he has all these years . . .

ESPN's Chad Ford likes him some Utah Jazz

In a recent ESPN Podcast (click on that if you want to listen to it) Ford talks for about 2 minutes about how gosh darn awesome the Jazz are. He starts by suggesting (what a lot of people thought, including himself) that the Jazz success in the 80's and 90's were primarily due to John Stockton and Karl Malone; however, he now sees that the influence of the system and Jerry Sloan had a lot to do with it. Case in point: this version of the Jazz who are pretty strong -- partly due to the system, and partly because of shrewd roster moves by GM Kevin O'Connor.

Furthermore, success in the Jazz system is predicated upon strong point guard play -- and none of this recent success would be possible without Deron Williams. Who Ford "thinks is one of the top 3 point guards in the NBA" (Chad Ford, 2008, via ESPN Podcast). He goes on about how dominant he is.

Next Ford talks about Boozer being an anchor in the paint; mentions AK-47 as a talented role player whose true contributions do not always show up on the box score; and that Mehmet Okur stretches the defense and had an amazing second half of the season for us. Surprisingly he gets himself a good seat on the Ronnie Brewer bandwagon and talks about his athleticism, his ability to play the passing lanes, he's potentially a ball hawk, and really is what the Jazz team are missing. Basically he's suggesting that he's going to be that athletic perimeter defender that we haven't had since, well, uh, Blue Edwards? (Jazz history isn't rife with great athletic shooting guard lore) Over-all the Utah Jazz's depth, head coach and system are hard to ignore. Such that:

	"I think that if anybody is going to be able to stop the Lakers this year it's the Utah Jazz -- they're great at home, they are getting [increasingly] confident, they have a great mixture of youth and veterans, and I think at the end of the day, if there's a team that is going to surprise us in the West, it's going to be the Utah Jazz." (Chad Ford, 2008, via ESPN Podcast)
Chad Ford, ESPN

I haven't heard any of his other team podcasts, but I doubt he's going to be really critical (well, maybe the Pacers and Bobcats...) in any of them. If you want, you can listen to them all here. Over all, I agree with him -- our bench is under rated, our system works, and we have some athletic young talent for once. NBA Finals here we come!

Wow . . . possibly the best ever pre-season game?

Remember that game that I mentioned below, the one that was supposed to be the worst ever pre-season game? Well, turns out that I was wrong. (And not the last time for that either . . . ) Paul Millsap did play, and so too did Andrei Kirilenko. Furthermore Gerry McNamara played for the Jazz as well. 'Melo suited up for the Nuggets and the game went into over time and ended 120-119 in favor of the home team. That seems pretty exciting . . . especially with some of the crazy passes and plays that we got to see. (And a special appearance by Mateen Cleaves)

Deron did his work (22 and 8), Almond took his shots (11 fga), C.J. played point (which I WAS right about) and AK made some good blocks (3) and assists (3). All of that is great but we need to make a special point to laud the Rookie Kosta Koufos for some really good play!

Kosta finished the game with 11 points (5-7 fg, 0-4 ft, 1-1 3pt), 7 rebounds (3 offensive), 1 block and 1 assist. Additionally, it seems like only one of our two young center prospects can have a good game on any given day -- as Fes finished with 1 rebound in 5 less minutes of action. But back to Kosta, he hit a three in OT to make it a one point game, so that was pretty clutch -- especially for a Rookie! So that's impressive. Not so was going 0-4 at the FT line when he was above 90% during the RMR.
	Photographed by Garrett W. Ellwood for NBAE/Getty Images	Photographed by Garrett W. Ellwood for NBAE/Getty Images

Sure that looks like the difference in a one point loss, but hey, he's a rookie so back off -- he's only going to get better. And right now he's showing glimpses of potential. He looks to be a more complete player than Fesenko (duh) -- the only problem I have is that he seems to be a bit redundant. (Not like the Jazz don't draft for redundancy, because they do) I don't have a problem with bigmen who can shoot the ball, it's just that is not a problem for the Jazz. The Jazz need a cro-magnon in the paint who will throw his body around, give dangerous looks, and play rough. So far Kosta shows a lot of finesse. He'll get better though. Kongrats Kosta Koufos! And keep it up!

Rafael Araujo waived by Timberwolves

This story is all of 3 days old, and here are the (slightly contrasting) reactions from Raptors fans and Utah Jazz fans. This story is kinda pointless, but I really needed an excuse to post this picture . . . and now I have just the excuse I was looking for.

"Wel-come . . . to FANtasy Island!" -- Yeah, you know, like Ricardo Montalban and Herve Villechaize . . . but a bit more homosexual this time around.

Seriously though, part of the problem is the fact that the T-Wolves have a lot of good(ish) young guys in the frontcourt. The other part of the problem seems to stem from Araujo's flaws as a player. I wish him luck as he seems like a pretty nice guy and as he is a former Utah Jazz player after all.