The Jedi Voodoo Mind Trick Hype Machine

It should come as no surprise that after the Jazz started to get a) some of their injured guys back, and b) allowed some of their banged up guys (who were still playing) to get well again that c) the Jazz would start to win some games. Similarly so, people all over the world would start lauding Utah again. This has been par for the course over the last few seasons. In the 2004-2005 season the Jazz won only 26 games. Why? Not because of any extra-ordinary amount of 'suck', but because of injuries. (AK and Booz were out almost all of the season EACH) The next year -- when healthy -- the Jazz almost made the playoffs. End result: people started to talk about the Jazz. Since that time, the Jazz have increased their wins in each of the successive seasons. Alas, it would be folly to suggest that the Jazz did better when they weren't flying under the radar.

They do. A small market team that no one likes tends to band together better with the 'us against the world' attitude that happens with multiple all-star snubs, and poor projected win numbers. When everyone is flying high with the Jazz bad things happen. (After all, that 2004-2005 season where the Jazz won only 26 games was supposed to be a big win season according to ESPN.com, they had improved themselves the most over the off-season in their power rankings) Perhaps being disregarded early (due to poor playing in December and January each season) helps the team mentally get ready to "show everyone" that they were wrong for counting out the Jazz.

After all, no one was talking Jazz at the All-Star breaks the last few seasons (except for last season maybe), but each time the team is able to have spectacular runs in the final 30 games of the season and have won their division twice in a row. The mental edge that some of our players hone due to being passed over may not be so sharp right now when everyone and their grandmother is counting the Jazz in this time around.

Hollinger, of ESPN.com, once suggested that the Jazz would be the team to watch in 2009. Even after the season of injuries that the Jazz have suffered so far, he contends that the Jazz can still win the division. Mark Stein, also of ESPN.com, moved the Jazz up to 9th best in the league in his power rankings, and in his chat later on this week suggested that he should have moved then up to 7th best.  Chad Ford, again, ESPN.com, chimed in yesterday that when healthy "the Jazz . . . are the Lakers biggest competition in the West." Skeets and Tas over at TheBasketballJones suggest that the Jazz *are* this good, and only injuries got in the way.

As nice as all of this sounds, even the most vocal, yet highly respected, detractors of the Jazz have gotten on the respect wagon of late. AOL's NBA Fanhouse could be my browser homepage, their contributors get the news out from all over the league onto the net almost faster than anyone else. They recently had a roundtable discussion on the Jazz, and anyone who knows their writers knows not to expect glowing reviews. Matt Moore has contested for quite a long time that the Jazz are paper tigers. [fair enough...] He, however, did recant somewhat on his own blog, the amazing Hardwood Paroxysm, with his post "In the interest of fairness". (SLCDunk.com quoted MM yesterday on his LHM tribute) Moore even suggests that reading the comments in the Fanhouse roundtable elicited him to dig a little deeper.

"But I read the comments on our round table today, which featured an amazing combination of actually lucid, intelligent commenters, and I realized that I just didn’t fully give the story."

I'm guessing he wasn't talking about the comment calling everyone a moron, but perhaps maybe this one started things off. That "Doc A" guy sounds really smart. Now only if he had a blog that he could post his thoughts on . . . one that properly formatted itself depending on the browser settings of the viewer . . . grrrr. [For those who didn't get it, I'm "Doc A"] Tom Ziller (you should know who this guy is if you like reading basketball on the internet) goes where no one else has gone before and even suggests that we should, collectively, "Fear the Utah Jazz".

The recent love for the Jazz extends beyond the reaches of ESPN.com's columnists or bloggers . . . Kenny Smith (who has two rings), despite not being able to pronounce Deron Williams' name, goes out and heaps praise on our, small market team. Charley Rosen, Phil Jackson's butt buddy, is an opinionated old coot whose analysis of games is limited to whatever game is on cable TV that month. Dude doesn't even go to games. Essentially, if you look past his mediocre success as an assistant coach in the CBA he has no greater insight into the game than anyone else with a remote control and a laptop. This week he found it within his back heart to say something nice about our players -- one in particular -- the same one that Kenny Smith can't pronounce despite covering him for at least two rounds in each of the last two playoffs. All of this must sound great if you are a Jazz fan, right? On one hand it either shows that the world at large is a) respecting our team, or b) had their head so far up their sigmoid colon that they merely overlooked the Jazz and their lower seed record as evidence that the Jazz were just a bad team. I don't particularly find much comfort in either answer.

The Jazz don't do well with hype. You can look back and see what happened in that eventful 2004-2005 season, or look farther back at what happened in the 1998-1999 playoffs . . . or still farther back to one of those 5 first round exists during the early Stockton & Malone era after looking so good at such a young age by taking the Lakers to 7 games in 1987-1988. Hype can dull the edge, or worse, completely remove the chip off of the shoulders of our hungrier players. By giving the Jazz too much hype, perhaps, our expectations for them will never be attainable? Partly because of our expectations, but alternatively, also due to the hype removing some of the focused insanity that motivates people when they feel disrespected. Utah needs all the focus they can get, just look at their road record vs. under .500 teams . . . they don't play well unless they feel like they have something to prove.

So please, for the sake of the Jazz, don't hype them.

Wounded Jazz beat the Kings on the road

Hey all . . . posts have been slow lately as I try to a) re-organize and b) back up my work these past few weeks. [Not just blog stuff, but all my files] I'm almost all done, but don't worry, I'm still watching every game and taking down notes. December started off with a win for the Jazz on the road in the usually (just not this season) difficult to win in Arco Arena. The Kings aren't perfectly healthy right now, but it's not like they are missing two Olympians or anything like that. (For those keeping score at home, yes, Utah is in that situation right now)

Anyway, it was a close game much of the second half, with the Kings making it an 8 point game a few times. Spencer Hawes (14 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals) was a major catalyst for the Kings. Brad Miller (18 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks) was out Memo-ing Memo with outside shots and their wings were working hard all game long. Kevin Martin played in his first game in a while, and came off the bench to punch in 33 minutes of action. He was having his way against our defense when out of desperation Sloan had to substitute in Morris Almond. Martin would still end up scoring 22 points, but most of that would come at the line (he was not sent there often by Morris), otherwise he had a forgettable 6-16 shooting night. Almond did well enough on defense -- fighting through screens and hounding his man without being called for fouls -- to earn some time on the court that normally would have gone to the starting wingmen.

Almond (who would end up playing all of the 4th quarter, most of it with fellow bench player Kyle Korver) finished the game with 12 points (5-9 shooting, 1-2 from three, 1-1 from the free throw line), 6 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist and 1 steal. It's very easy to conclude that this was his best game of the season, and perhaps his best game ever in the NBA. Good for him. He contributed to the Jazz win, and was instrumental on defense. So he gets mention here, even though this is not the official game recap.

Here Kevin Martin took a wild drive and propelled himself forward (attempted flop) late in the 4th quarter trying to force the ref to call a foul -- but Morris Almond moved out of the way so Martin ended up taking an awkward shot that missed badly.

I may appear to be an Almond sympathizer, in that I am unlike many other Jazz fans who are quite hostile and outright wishing that Almond does poorly.

I like Morris, I think that he can be a solid pro. There's no playing time right now for him, but that doesn't mean that we should be rooting for him do play poorly. He's young, and apparently capable of working hard. I don't quite get why we should be automatically hostile towards this guy. No one said that he was NBA ready on defense when he was drafted -- he has a lot to work on. I just think that if given the chance he can do well. After all, this was his first game playing with Deron Williams, it's no surprise that Deron was able to find another guy who can finish a play on offense, and score the ball. It's pretty much what I said all along, when he's the only guy who can do anything, all of his faults are magnified -- when he's the 3rd or 4th option on a team, he can do some good things when he's being passed the ball where he can do something with it. (Seriously, I'd take getting passes from Deron Williams over passes from Kevin Kruger any day . . .) He's not a perfect player, and we can clearly see that he's incapable of making those Brewer type of passes, but if this last game is any indication, then he is making strides to improve. And he gets props for that from me.

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE / Getty Images

December Schedule Overview

Just to refresh everyone's memories . . . last season Utah played 16 games in December and managed to go 5-11over that span. The main reasons why the Jazz lost so many games happened to be a mixture of injuries, off-court drama (thanks Giricek!) and the fact that teams learned to just play zone defense against Utah. This season we have a slew of injuries and go into December looking to play 15 games.

The first three games are an away game @ Sacramento on Tuesday, quickly followed by a home game the very next night against the Miami Heat. I've never flown from Sacramento to Salt Lake City before, but that doesn't seem to be too bad -- weather permitting. The Jazz do not play again until Friday, with a game on TV (ESPN) hosting the Toronto Raptors.

After the two game home stand the Jazz face off with a pair of road games -- the first @ Phoenix (the 2nd night of a back-to-back) on Saturday, and then @ Minnesota on Tuesday.

Again, alternating between home games and road games the Jazz return to Salt Lake City for games against Portland (also on TV, this time TNT) and then two days later, against Orlando. Then the fun starts . . .

Fun being our 2nd 5 game Eastern Conference Road trip in two months. Thankfully it appears to be a bit more spaced out than last time. On the 15th the Jazz play @ Boston, on the 17th the Jazz play @ New Jersey, on the 19th the Jazz play @ Detroit. The next night the Jazz play @ Chicago -- this is not only the 2nd night in a back-to-back set but also the 3rd game in 4 nights. The Jazz's last stop is against the Milwaukee Bucks on the 23rd. On paper playing against Boston, Detroit and Chicago should be harder than playing against the Wizards, Bobcats and Knicks -- but the Jazz lost all three of those games too, so who is to say how Utah will fare this time around?

After Christmas the Jazz play Dallas on boxing day, then visit Houston the very next night. Utah finishes the month with a home game against Philadelphia.

For those keeping score at home that's 6 games against the West, and 9 games against the East. (We've only lost once all season against the West so far, and 6 times against Eastern foes) Furthermore, the Jazz play 6 home games and 9 road games.

There are only four back-to-back sets (@ Sac, vs. Mia; vs. Tor., @ Phoe; @ Det, @ Chi; and vs. Dal, @ Hou) this month, so that's one good thing from this mess that we can look forward to.

There are a number of 3rd game in 4 nights: the Toronto game is one, so will be the game @ Phoenix, the game @ Chicago and the game at home vs. Philadelphia.

It's not easy, but December is very rarely easy for the Jazz. Anything less than going 7 - 8 would be horrible.

New Poll: Remembering November

Now that the first month of the season is in the history books, how will you remember it?

	Is the fact that the Jazz lost to so many crappy teams how you are going to remember this month? I know I was upset at losing to some of those teams, but you just can't expect to win every game -- especially not when it comes down to a broken play, 2nd shot attempt buzzer beater in transition (Chicago), or playing an unbelievably hot player (Devin Harris). That said, I'm still pissed off at all of these losses to East Teams.
	Or are you optimistic about our future, based on the solid, and somewhat spectacular play of our younger players -- Brewer, Miles and Koufos are all doing better than I thought they would early on!
	Perhaps you're just happy to limp into December, and recognize that once the Jazz are finally healthy, that they'll be fine.
	Ooof . . . too much Turkey
	Depth is a reason to be satisfied with this team early on.
	Hardly any Harpring! Hooray!

I have my own opinions, and decided not to put a 'bench' option because that plays into our depth.

Poll Result: What's the main problem so far this season?

So far the Utah Jazz have been one of the better teams in the conference, though not one of the top 5 teams in the league. There are some serious holes in the way the team has been playing, and as a result, the record Utah has produced reflects this -- as of today, the Utah Jazz are 11-7, which is 3rd best in the Northwest Division. There were 30 votes in this poll, and it's no big surprise to see which category was voted the main problem so far this season. My 'joke' entry ended up being second though, so that was surprising . . .

	Votes	%	Notes
Not defending the perimeter	5	16%	According to 82games.com, the Jazz are 3rd worst in defending the three -- 39.4 3pt%. Just re-watching the Knicks game shows how important this is. That link does support the fact that the Jazz are very solid at defending inside shots (relative to the NBA average, the Jazz are 5th best in the league -- without having any real shot blocking guy in there).
Not making open shots	3	10%	Well, the Jazz are 2nd in the NBA in made dunks (106 so far this season), and shoot 61.4% from inside. Pretty much, most of the time, the Jazz are making their easy shots. However, I've seen countless examples of missed layups, missed post up shots when our guys are posted up against smaller defenders, and way too many missed open threes. We make one of those open threes each game and we have a much better record.
Not healthy enough	12	40%	This is the big reason -- and really, the only one we need. If the Jazz are healthy, they aren't losing 7 games this month. Last game the TV crew showed a graphic of how many games the Jazz players have lost to injury/illness this season. Right now we sit at more than 60. Last season alone the Jazz missed only about 45.
Not running?	0	0%	No one picked this. Without Deron Williams running the half court the only time the back up point guards were useful was in a running game -- this was especially true of Brevin Knight who doesn't even know all the plays yet. (He admitted as such) Our offense (which, btw, isn't even scoring 100 ppg this season) is predicated on point guard play. When our PGs were busy turning the ball over, or taking early shots, the rest of our team can't get it going.
Not playing every game at home	10	33%	I put this up there as a joke, but apparently 10 people felt that it was a real reason. True, the Jazz usually win their games at home, but Utah lost 2 games there in the last week (Chicago Bulls and NJ Nets) -- just because it's a home game doesn't mean that it's a win anymore.

New Poll: What's the main problem so far this season?

Here's a new poll, you have until December to vote on it . . . it appears simple enough. What's the main problem so far for the Jazz this season? The usual suspects of not being healthy, not defending the perimeter, and not being at home are tempting answers -- but perhaps it's a problem with our offense missing 'gimmie' shots more than ever, or the fact that we're not running when we should run? We have some good athletes, but we often prefer to let the other team set their defense up before we attack them. I don't mind getting easy shots now and then, do you? Personally, I voted for not making open shots. I don't expect the Jazz to shoot 60 fg%, but I do expect them to make more than half of their really wide open jumpers / layups. So far (and particularly on the road trip) this was not the case. What do you guys think?

Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)

Things to look for this season: Kyrylo Fesenko

If the only news you get is from the major news outlets in Salt Lake City you get the impression that NBA MVP Kosta Koufos (tentative) is not only the best draft pick EVAR, but also a lovely boy scout! The articles I read leave me to believe that some reporters are crushing a little bit on him . . . I understand the need and utility of a fluff piece (most of my stuff is just that). But even I can't stand it. That's not to say that I have issue with Kosta Koufos -- it just appears that way because in a preview of Fesenko's next season all I've done in rant about the new guy. It's just that fluff pieces, saying 'sir' and shooting three pointers when you are over 7 feet tall HARDLY qualifies as helping the Jazz out on the glass; with blocks; and with interior defense and intimidation.

How is a 7 foot tall teen with pimples/boy scout/three point shooter who calls everyone 'sir' going to be a force in the paint and help out our anemic defense of our basket? It's almost as if winning the paint is less important than winning some magical award for having 'morally upright' kids on the team who help old ladies cross the street.

That's not going to help us block shots in the playoffs, or play defense against other bigs without fouling them. We don't need another soft guy to come off the bench to replace Boozer or Memo. We need someone hard and mean. Someone who eats old ladies who try to cross the street. Someone -- at this stage -- that I don't think Mr.Polite Koufos is, or will be. Don't get me wrong, I want Kosta to succeed, I want him to be a legit NBA player. I think Kosta is going to be a solid NBA player. I also want the Jazz to have someone come off the bench, and actually play like a 7 footer who bangs, blocks shots and gives hard fouls. You know, things that we don't have on this team right now. I don't think that Kosta fills our greatest need.

Somehow this pictures reminds me of that scene from Napoleon Dynamite where Deb is photographing Uncle Rico . . . audio here

Alas, no one seems to say anything good about Fesenko, so perhaps he's not going to be that guy either -- which would suck, seeing how at this part of the season, last season, everyone was on the Fes bandwaggon. (How quickly people turn on you . . . not unlike how Boozer was loved then hated, then loved, and now hated again)

So, in a world where we must temper our feelings for Fes, while our projections for Kosta run with wild abandon what do I see Kyrylo doing this season?

1. Make the best of his time on the floor with the Jazz: Fes isn't going to play in 70 games this season unless something amazing happens (like Jarron Collins goes all Bison Dele on the Jazz, or Fes levels up into an NBA player at some point), so he's going to have to really bring it when he is playing with the big boys. I can imagine how someone who has trouble self-motivating can slack off in the D-league, he still put up good stats (10 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 bpg, 2 apg) for someone they just pulled off of the hard streets of Kiev. His NBA career is only 9 games long, and he's only played more than 10 minutes in any given game on three different occasions. His season averages are horrible because he played three times this season: once in November, then during a stretch of 6 games in December (the worst month of the season for our entire team), and then in a back-to-back set all the way in March. There isn't much continuity there, especially how he'd get into the game for 4 minutes there, or 36 seconds there ... all the while dropping his averages down. If you look at the four games where he played at least 8 minutes you get a chance to see some good in Fes. First of all, when he plays extended minutes the Jazz usually win (3 wins, 1 loss), in addition to that, he seems to play better when he actually has some time to settle down into a game. During those four games (Nov 30 vs. Lakers, a win; Dec 15 vs. Seattle, a win; Dec 17 vs. Atlanta, a loss; Dec 21 vs. Orlando, a win) he averaged 4.3 rpg (2.3 offensive), 0.75 bpg, 0.5 apg and 3.5 fpg in a little over 12 mpg. He also chipped in 2 ppg, but he hardly shoots, and that's not what he's in there for. Fes can be effective, against Bynum he had 7 boards (4 offensive) and threw it down a few times.
2. Corner the market on a skill: Fes isn't going to be better than Memo or Kosta at jump shooting. He's not going to be better than Jarron at flopping, or knowing the playbook (he hasn't been here for 73 seasons like Jarron has). Fes has to develop that one (or more) skill that sets him apart from the other guys on the roster. He has to be so proficient with it that the Jazz coaches feel good with him on the floor, instead of on the bench. That skill is going to have to be dominating the paint. Fesenko has the size, strength and agility to dispel the common ideas of European bigmen. While he may lack it in the girth department, he does have Shaq-like size. He can run the floor and play physical basketball. He can rebound and block shots. He just needs to keep working on this part of his game to the point where even old man Jer (who always comments on peoples' conditioning . . . hey, Shaq sucked at conditioning Jerry, he has 4 rings and you have none, sometimes talent requires playing time) has to play him. No one needs Fesenko to be David Robinson on offense, just as long as he can catch the ball and dunk it then he'll be okay. (And last time I checked, Fes and catch the ball and dunk it, ask the Lakers about that) Conditioning is good and great, but we're looking for a guy to lumber up and down the floor for 12 mpg as a backup to Memo/Booz (who'll play most of the mins at the 5 this season). I'd rather have the guy who barely makes it through 12 mins, but actually does something in that time than the guy who plays 12, has the conditioning to play 22, but does nothing in that time.
3. Want it more: Often a big guy gets conscripted into playing basketball just because of his height. (see: Eaton, Mark) After a while he either loves the game and wants to be better, or he's just happy to make money doing something like this. Kyrylo needs to want it more, or at least, show that he does. (He may want it, but may not show it for a variety of reasons, but we don't need to go into psychology here) Who he is, and his future with the jazz may very well boil down to what happens this season, especially in relation to the wunderkid Kosta Koufos. Fesenko has to want it more, as he has an uphill battle against him where he not only has to beat out Koufos, but also a conditioning obsessed Coach (you know, Adam Keefe plays 27 mpg while Chris Morris sits) and a media that idolizes his competition as well.

Flashback Friday: First 20 games of previous seasons

As the trees change colors and all the snotty kids begin to learn their locker combinations at school the seasonal dynamics take another turn -- a turn towards the return of the NBA. Before you know it, it'll be opening night. The NBA schedule makers usually have to give the Jazz the short end of the stick (because our owner doesn't fancy home games on Sunday), and our last month of the season (April) the last few seasons have been absolutely brutal. That said, the Jazz usually start off strong in the first handful of games before taking a mid-season nose dive in December.

In the 2002-2003 season Utah went 12-8 in the first 20 games of the season. Some of the boxscores were just flat out nutty on that team. For example, the first game of the season (a 100-75 loss to the New Orleans Hornets) had Malone lead the team with 20 points, had Mark Jackson lead the team in rebounds with 7, and Malone and Stockton led the team with assists with only 4 each. Malone led the team in scoring 11 times, Kirilenko 3 times, Harpring 4 times, Stockton 2 times and Ostertag 1 time. (The next few games were even crazier, including increasingly less scoring from Malone, and more from Kirilenko and Harpring, who would lead the scoring for the Jazz in 9 of the next 10 games.) Clearly it was a season of transition. By the start of January Malone had broken 30 points in a game once, and Harpring and Kirilenko did it a combined three times. That team finished the season 47 - 35 and was bounced from the playoffs in the first round by Sacramento in 5, Stockton and Malone's last game together.

The next season (2003-2004) was the first season without John Stockton on our team since the early 80's. The Jazz started the season 11-9 and were led by the likes of Arroyo, Kirilenko, Harpring, Stevenson, Bell and Lopez. A mid-season trade for Gordan Giricek proved to be a smart move immediately as he helped the team with his scoring (24 points in a win against Detroit, 21 points in a win against the Lakers, 33 points in a win against Phoenix on the road, 25 in a loss to the Raptors, 19 in a win against New Orleans, 22 in a loss to the Spurs, 25 in a win against Memphis and 23 in a win against Houston -- all in the last two months of the season) on the way to a 42-40 final record. The Jazz barely missed the playoffs and this special shooting guard seemed to be a big part of that. (I wonder what happened to this guy who could go off for 20+ points on any given night?) Andrei was an All-Star this season, if I remember correctly.

That off season the Jazz front office had a free agent coup by signing Carlos Boozer (FA), and Mehmet Okur (RFA) to big money deals. The results of the first 20 games of 2004-2005 speak for themselves though: the Jazz went 9-11. This was the first time they were below .500 to start the season in quite a long time. The future looked bright for the Jazz as Boozer was scoring quite a bit (27 in the 1st game of the season, and win against the Lakers; quickly followed by games of 30, 34, 27, 25, 27, 36, 29 and so on) and Andrei was doing his all around thing . . . but both went down and did not finish the season. The Jazz finished with a 26-56 record, and a date with the ping-pong balls.

The very next season Carlos Boozer got injured in the pre-season and the 2005-2006 season was beginning to look a lot like Deja Vu for Jazz fans. Utah limped to a 8-12 record to start the season, some wins relying on Matt Harpring scoring 30 points and Jarron Collins getting 10 boards. Utah finished the season 41-41, just baring missing the playoffs again! This season finished with the starting lineup of Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko (at the 2), Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur (at the 4) and Carlos Boozer (at the 5). For those who forgot, the Jazz won 7 of their last 10 games (2 of those losses were to the Spurs though).

Utah finally makes the playoffs in 2006-2007, winning the Northwest Division title and breaks 50 wins in a season for the first time in what seems like eternity. The Jazz go 51-31 off of some strong performances by Boozer, Okur and Williams, after an amazing 15-5 start! Everyone was finally healthy and a 2nd year Deron Williams powered the team as Memo and Booz were honored to be part of the Western Conference All-Star team.

Last season (2007-2008) the Jazz improved on their win total and end the season with a 54-28 record. How did they start? They started the season 13-7 -- which is less than the previous season, but they ended up winning more games. They ended up trading Gordan Giricek for Kyle Korver and won their 2nd straight Northwest Division title (sorry AI and the rest of the Denver Media Hype Bandwagon).

Here is a recap of the past 6 seasons:

Season	1st 20 games	Season Record	Playoffs?	Won Division?
2002-2003	12-8	47-35	Yes
2003-2004	11-9	42-40
2004-2005	9-11	26-56
2005-2006	8-12	41-41
2006-2007	15-5	51-31	Yes	Yes
2007-2008	13-7	54-28	Yes	Yes

So we can clearly see that starting off well is very important to the Jazz actually making the playoffs. Every season where we've won at least 12 of the first 20 games has us making the playoffs and being close to a 50 win team. It's probably something to watch then as winning games early and making the playoffs seem to share some common factors, if not are correlated to one another.

What do our first 20 games look like this season?

Game	vs.		Game	vs.
1	Denver	1-0	11	Phoenix	8-3
2	LA Clippers	2-0	12	Milwaukee	9-3
3	@ LA Clippers	3-0	13	@ San Antonio	9-4
4	Portland	4-0	14	@ Memphis	10-4
5	Oklahoma City	5-0	15	Chicago	11-4
6	@ NY Knicks	6-0	16	Memphis	12-4
7	@ Philadelphia	6-1	17	Sacramento	13-4
8	@ Washington	7-1	18	New Jersey	14-4
9	@ Charlotte	8-1	19	@ Sacramento	14-5
10	@ Cleveland	8-2	20	Miami	15-5

Sure, that's with the homer hat on, but I think that we will finally beat the Knicks in NY, and drop games against the Cavs on the road, and against the Suns, Spurs and Kings (in Sactown). This may be a conservative estimate, but after the first 20 games we very well should have around 15 wins!