Going out of town this weekend

This is just a quick note to say that I'm going to be in Austin this weekend -- unfortunately. So I'm going to miss watching the Jazz game against the Nuggets, and most likely the game against the Raptors. Blah.

Forward March!

The Utah Jazz finished February with their best record in franchise history: 10-1. It was a spectacular month filled with victories over the likes of the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, New Orleans Hornets and playoff teams from both conferences. As good as February was, January was a travesty where the Jazz limped to a 7-8 record. There are only 23 games left in the regular schedule -- and only 23 games left for the Jazz to make any solid moves up in the standings. March sees the Jazz playing in 15 games, and April has the Jazz playing in 8 regular season games. They are on the road 14 times, and at home only 9 times.

The major problem I can see, when looking over the schedule, is that fatigue is really going to set in late. Hopefully this is the case with all of the teams in the running for the playoffs -- but the Jazz have a particularly tough task. First of all, there's another extended Eastern Conference road trip that needs to happen, one that will span 8 days, and have the Jazz playing 5 times. (we already know how poor the Jazz are on the road, and how poor they are against the East . . .) The Jazz will face off against Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta, Miami and Orlando. The games against Atlanta and Orlando are both the 2nd night of back to back sets; furthermore, the game against Atlanta would be the 3rd game in 4 nights. If the Jazz win three out of those five games I'll be bouncing off the walls.

The second, and perhaps larger, problem is the cumulative effect of all of these games. The Jazz play 8 back to back sets still. (15 of our last 23 games are either the first or second game of a back to back set, or 70%) If that was not enough, 9 of these last 23 games will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Jazz. (@ Atlanta, vs. Washington, @ Portland, @ Denver, vs. Minnesota, @ New Orleans, vs. Golden State, vs. LA Clippers, @ LA Lakers) Do any of those look like important games to win? I see a few there.

The largest obstacle will be around the end of March and the beginning of April where the Jazz will play Houston at home, then the next night fly to Phoenix to take on the Suns. Two days later the Jazz face the Suns at home. I don't know the exact injury situation with Phoenix, but as far as I can tell, they will either be in full tank mode, or swing for the fences mode. The next week the Jazz will face the Knicks at home, then fly the next night to play the Blazers -- one of the previously mentioned 3rd game in 4 nights sets. This will be the last game of March, and it goes all downhill from there. The Jazz then fly over to Denver to play the first game of a back to back set, which is also the 3rd game in 4 nights, and yes, the 5th game in 6 nights. How often do you get the 5th game in 7 nights? Very rarely, but only when you play a game the very next night, at home against Minnesota, that's the second night of a back to back, and ultimately, the 6th game in 7 nights. Yes, this is how the Jazz start off April -- playing 6 times in a week, with one of our last remaining 'gimmie' games at home against a non-playoff team being scheduled at the worst possible time. [EDIT: This is incorrect, the Jazz game vs. the Timberwolves will be the 5th game in 7 nights, not 6th in 7]

To add insult to injury, the Jazz play again, on the road in New Orleans on that Sunday, a single game that does not look too hard, but will be the 3rd game in 4 nights, and the 4th game in 6 games, 5th game in 7. The Jazz will have a needed two day rest, and then finish the last 5 games of the seasons @ Dallas, @ San Antonio, vs. Golden State (2nd game in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights), vs. the LA Clippers (3rd game in 4 nights), and then on the road to face the LA Lakers (2nd night in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights).

I really pray that this is the case for all teams right now, and that everyone will be equally tired to finish the season. The Jazz play against a Top 10 team in the Western Conference 13 times (out of 15 remaining Western Conference games) to finish the season. The Jazz are shaky on the road . . . hopefully Boozer will be full of energy from that mid-season holiday he took.

Just because I am insane, here it all is in chart form:

	Game	Opponent	Location	Date	Conf.	Playoff Team	Part of B2B Set?	Other:
March	1	Golden State	Road	March 1	West		2nd game
	2	Houston	Home	March 4	West	Yes		Season series 0-2
	3	Denver	Home	March 6	West	Yes		Season series 1-1
	4	Toronto	Road	March 8	East
	5	Indiana	Road	March 10	East		1st game
	6	Atlanta	Road	March 11	East	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
	7	Miami	Road	March 14	East	Yes	1st game
	8	Orlando	Road	March 15	East	Yes	2nd game
	9	Washington	Home	March 17	East			3rd game in 4
	10	Oklahoma City	Road	March 20	West
	11	Houston	Home	March 24	West	Yes	1st game
	12	Phoenix	Road	March 25	West	?	2nd game	Season series 1-1
	13	Phoenix	Home	March 28	West	?
	14	New York	Home	March 30	East		1st game	Last game vs. East until Finals
	15	Portland	Road	March 31	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
April	16	Denver	Road	April 2	West	Yes	1st game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 6
	17	Minnesota	Home	April 3	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5 5th game in 7
	18	New Orleans	Road	April 5	West	Yes		3rd game in 4 4th game in 6 5th game in 7
	19	Dallas	Road	April 8	West	Yes
	20	San Antonio	Road	April 10	West	Yes	1st game
	21	Golden State	Home	April 11	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4
	22	LA Clippers	Home	April 13	West		1st game	3rd game in 4
	23	LA Lakers	Road	April 14	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5

The Jazz are currently sitting at 36-23, and need 14 games to win 50 for the season. ESPN.com predicted that the Jazz would win 51 games -- a number that I thought was ridiculously low back in Pre-Season. I was so bold as to suggest that the Jazz would finish the season (including playoffs) with 65 wins this year. The last two seasons the Jazz won 60 games total (2006-2007: 51 regular season, 9 playoffs; 2007-2008: 54 regular season, 6 playoffs) -- so I felt like a 5 game improvement wouldn't be that far out of the realm of possibility. For my statement to be true (65 wins), and let's assume the Jazz win 6 playoff games (2nd round exit) the Jazz will need to win each of these last 23 games. As much as that would be awesome, I just don't see it happening. (In my defense, though, I could not know that the Jazz would miss over 150 man games to injury this year)

Instead of doing the whole 'poke holes into my ability to gauge how well my team can win games' game, let's move forward . . . into March. The Jazz have momentum right now, having won 7 games straight, 9 in a row at home, and 10 of their last 11. They need to keep it going, or else they may end up facing San Antonio or the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. I'd take the Jazz' chances in the first round against any of the other teams in the West (Denver, Houston, Portland, New Orleans, Dallas, Phoenix), even without home court. The Playoff Push all starts tonight on the road to the Golden State Warriors -- who killed us last time we played them.

December Schedule Overview

Just to refresh everyone's memories . . . last season Utah played 16 games in December and managed to go 5-11over that span. The main reasons why the Jazz lost so many games happened to be a mixture of injuries, off-court drama (thanks Giricek!) and the fact that teams learned to just play zone defense against Utah. This season we have a slew of injuries and go into December looking to play 15 games.

The first three games are an away game @ Sacramento on Tuesday, quickly followed by a home game the very next night against the Miami Heat. I've never flown from Sacramento to Salt Lake City before, but that doesn't seem to be too bad -- weather permitting. The Jazz do not play again until Friday, with a game on TV (ESPN) hosting the Toronto Raptors.

After the two game home stand the Jazz face off with a pair of road games -- the first @ Phoenix (the 2nd night of a back-to-back) on Saturday, and then @ Minnesota on Tuesday.

Again, alternating between home games and road games the Jazz return to Salt Lake City for games against Portland (also on TV, this time TNT) and then two days later, against Orlando. Then the fun starts . . .

Fun being our 2nd 5 game Eastern Conference Road trip in two months. Thankfully it appears to be a bit more spaced out than last time. On the 15th the Jazz play @ Boston, on the 17th the Jazz play @ New Jersey, on the 19th the Jazz play @ Detroit. The next night the Jazz play @ Chicago -- this is not only the 2nd night in a back-to-back set but also the 3rd game in 4 nights. The Jazz's last stop is against the Milwaukee Bucks on the 23rd. On paper playing against Boston, Detroit and Chicago should be harder than playing against the Wizards, Bobcats and Knicks -- but the Jazz lost all three of those games too, so who is to say how Utah will fare this time around?

After Christmas the Jazz play Dallas on boxing day, then visit Houston the very next night. Utah finishes the month with a home game against Philadelphia.

For those keeping score at home that's 6 games against the West, and 9 games against the East. (We've only lost once all season against the West so far, and 6 times against Eastern foes) Furthermore, the Jazz play 6 home games and 9 road games.

There are only four back-to-back sets (@ Sac, vs. Mia; vs. Tor., @ Phoe; @ Det, @ Chi; and vs. Dal, @ Hou) this month, so that's one good thing from this mess that we can look forward to.

There are a number of 3rd game in 4 nights: the Toronto game is one, so will be the game @ Phoenix, the game @ Chicago and the game at home vs. Philadelphia.

It's not easy, but December is very rarely easy for the Jazz. Anything less than going 7 - 8 would be horrible.

201!

It took me a while to get to 101 posts . . . it took even less time to get from 101 to 201. I really have no life. The winner of the caption contest was Collethegoalie. He won by default. The prize is that he's gets to be named in my blog as the best commenter in the History of this blog. It was still funny though, I just hope more people try this time around . . .

CAPTION THIS!

Flashback Friday: The first 10 games of the last two seasons

Last season (2007-2008) the Utah Jazz won 54 games in the regular season, but only 6 in the post season, for a grand total of 60 wins. The Jazz also won 60 total wins the previous season (2006-2007) -- 51 in the regular season and 9 in the post season. I think that this club is ready to break the 60 total win barrier and do something special this season. The years where the Utah Jazz start off hot as usually the most successful seasons for the Jazz as well. That said, it has to start somewhere, so let's take a look at the first 10 games of the last two seasons: 2006-2007 and 2007-2008.

	2006-2007				2007-2008				2008-2009
	Opponent	Win	Record		Opponent	Win	Record		Opponent	Win	Record
1	Houston Rockets	Yes	1-0		@ Golden State Warriors	Yes	1-0		Denver Nuggets	Yes	1-0
2	@ Phoenix Suns	Yes	2-0		Houston Rockets		1-1		LA Clippers	Yes	2-0
3	Golden State Warriors	Yes	3-0		Golden State Warriors	Yes	2-1		@ LA Clippers	Yes	3-0
4	Detroit Pistons	Yes	4-0		@ LA Lakers		2-2		Portland Trailblazers	Yes	4-0
5	@ New Jersey Nets		4-1		Cleveland Cavaliers	Yes	3-2		Oklahoma City Thunder	Yes	5-0
6	@ Boston Celtics	Yes	5-1		@ Seattle Supersonics	Yes	4-2		@ New York Knicks	?
7	@ Milwaukee Bucks	Yes	6-1		Memphis Grizzlies	Yes	5-2		@ Philadelphia 76ers	?
8	@ LA Clippers	Yes	7-1		Sacramento Kings	Yes	6-2		@ Washington Wizards	?
9	@ Seattle Supersonics	Yes	8-1		@ Toronto Raptors	Yes	7-2		@ Charlotte Bobcats	?
10	Phoenix Suns	Yes	9-1		@ Cleveland Cavaliers		7-3		@ Cleveland Cavaliers	?

The last two seasons the Jazz started above .500 and went on to have pretty successful seasons (winning their Division, getting to (at the very least) the 2nd round of the playoffs). In 06-07 the Jazz beat some really good squads on their way to an amazing 9-1 record. (Phoenix twice, Houston, Detroit, etc) The next season the Jazz lost the games against harder opponents -- like the Lakers, the Rockets, and the Cavs on the road. This season how do you think the Jazz will fare?

The remaining games after tonight's game against Oklahoma (which we won, btw) appear to be 'easier' than having to face 5 Western powers in a row, though they comprise a really tough Eastern stretch where there are:

• two sets of back to back games (Nov. 11th-12th; Nov. 14th-15th)
• three different situations of 3 games in 4 nights (Nov. 9th, 11th & 12th; Nov. 11th, 12th & 14th; Nov. 12th, 14th & 15th)
• 4 games in 5 nights (Nov. 11th, 12th, 14th & 15th)
• and ultimately, 5 games in 7 nights.

That's brutal. If you have any Jazz guys on your fantasy team start them this week as there are 5 games -- but if you are just a Jazz fan, you do not relish the upcoming week.

Just because you are playing against the Eastern teams doesn't mean that they are just going to roll over. We're traditionally not that great on the road, and the schedule works against us here. Let's go over these teams and the games the Jazz will play against them in:

November 9th, 2008	@ New York Knicks
	New York (3-2) is a run an gun team that's nothing like the Eddie Curry / Zach Randolph disaster from last season. (101.6 ppg so far this season) Almost everyone on their team shoots threes -- 7 different guys on their roster has made at least one. Making things worse is the fact that we've been historically bad in Madison Square Garden over the years. This is not going to be as easy as we think to get a win here -- especially when we're going in there without Deron Williams. Nate Robinson has been playing very well this season, so far coming off the bench to average 16 ppg (48.4 fg%, 42.3 3pt%), 4.2 rpg, 4.8 apg and 2.6 spg. Wilson Chandler has a surprisingly effective offensive game as well. There's no guarantee to say we'll win this one.
November 11th, 2008	@ Philadelphia 76ers
	Philly (2-4) is supposed to be really good, a top team in the East -- at least according to pre-season projections by "experts" . . . so far their offense looks horrible and their team isn't winning. That said, they are long and big inside (Brand, Dalembert, Marreese, etc) and have some youth and athleticism in the likes of Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and this Iguodala guy. Boozer hates playing against guys with longer reaches than he has -- and all three of those big guys have than on Booz. Additionally, stronger slashers with good first steps routinely can burn Brewer and Kirilenko -- and Thaddeus and Andre Iguodala both fit the bill there. By the time they play the Jazz, they would have had a 5 day rest.
November 12th, 2008	@ Washington Wizards
	Washington (0-4) has been playing without Gilbert Arenas, and is still looking for their first win of the season. Tonight they play the Orlando Magic and could very well be down 0-5 by the time that they play the Jazz -- but that doesn't mean they still can't hurt us . . . they are a good outside shooting team, and the duo of Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison (two mobile and active players on offense) can score with ease. It's about this time of the road trip that fatigue could be setting in as this is the 2nd game in a back to back and the first 'three games in four nights' set of the season for the Jazz. Through some quirks of the scheduling, the Wizards will have three free days before the game against the Jazz, and be rested.
November 14th, 2008	@ Charlotte Bobcats
	Logic suggests that a game against Charlotte (2-3) would be a relative breather at this stage in the 5 game road trip, but the Bobcats are long and athletic -- and have nothing to lose. They beat the New Orleans Hornets last night, and that should show us how dangerous they can be on any given night, thanks to Coach Larry Brown. They will have played the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets this next week before they face off against the Jazz on Friday. We don't know what's going to happen with Gerald Wallace during that time period, but we know that they are strong defensively inside with Wallace (8.8 rpg, 2.4 spg, 1.0 bpg) and Okafor (11.0 rpg, 1.0 bpg). In addition there's this Jason Richardson (17.6 ppg, 1.2 3ptm/game) guy who is pretty dynamic and used to score on us at will back when he was playing for the Golden State Warriors. So far they are only scoring 90.4 ppg, and if there is one easy game during this road trip, this may very well be it. It's a 3rd game in four nights game, by the way.
November 15th, 2008	@ Cleveland Cavaliers
	This game against the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-2, who have games against Chicago, Milwaukee and Denver this week before they tip off against the Jazz)  is another 'three games in four nights' set; the 2nd night of a back to back set; and the fourth game in five nights. And yes, if you're keeping track, 5th game in 7 nights total. It's a game against the talented, bruising and defensive minded Cleveland Cavaliers. They are really big inside with Zydrunas, Sideshow Bob and Ben Wallace; feature a plethora of smaller guards who don't have any consciences when it comes to attempting threes (Boobie Gibson, Delonte West, Mo Williams, Sasha Pavlovic, etc). Last, but not least, they have LeBron James. Also Boozer hardly ever plays well there. If we win this game, I will give up eating bacon for a month. And I love bacon.

I'd like to think the Jazz could end up with another 9-1 record, but I don't count on it . . . the schedule is the main opponent for the Jazz during this 5 game Eastern Conference road trip, and the main opponent the Jazz are going to face during our first 10 games of the season. I wouldn't be surprised for the Jazz to limp home after this trip with 3 losses. Then again . . . this is all speculative appraisals of the situation based on a world where Deron Williams does not suit up in any of these games. (And it looks like he's not going to suit up at all for a while now, according to the Deseret News.)

The Jazz have 5 more games -- all on this East trip -- how do you think they'll finish? Will the Jazz go 10-0 to start the season? 5-5? 6-4? What do you guys think?

N.B. All Images are photographed for NBAE/Getty Images

All Euro (Whitey) Team comment and other thoughts on recent blog articles I've enjoyed

I love readings blogs . . . that's actually the main reason why I created one as well -- because I wanted to give back. Unfortunately I don't have all the time in the world to read them anymore, but I try to keep abreast of blog posts via BallHype.com. (They are fantastic, I use BallHype.com more often than I use Google.com) Anyway, here's a selection of blog posts and my take on them --

Rebounding Differential Rankings in the NBA [Nov 6] -- Khandor's Sports Blog talks about something Jazz fans have been very lucky to have over the last few seasons, and actually positive rebounding differential. Utah is a strong rebounding club (currently #6th in the NBA in differential at +5.00 as of November 6th, 2008). Last season the Jazz were tied for 3rd over-all with the Boston Celtics at +3.1 rebound differential; Cleveland was at +4.2, and Houston at +4.0. Two of the clubs above the Jazz (Detroit and Philly) have played the Raptors though, and thus, those rebounding numbers look highly inflated. Khandor shows a nice chart and talks about it a bit. I tend to value rebounding differential more than actual average RPG because it shows how good (or bad) a team is compared to other teams -- as opposed to being an isolated number by itself. I wish the Raptors do get better rebounding, as they are one of the teams that I root for. Thanks Khandor for blogging about this, it's nice to know that I'm not the only crazy person out there who likes stats.

Zach at Gunaxin.com recently blogged about The All Whitey Basketball Team -- Zach describes and details a 12 man roster of purely American white guys. He comes up with Kirk Hinrich, Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy Jr., David Lee and Chris Kaman as starters. The bench is comprised of Brad Miller, Kyle Korver, Steve Blake, Kevin Love, Wally Szcerbiak, Troy Murphy and Nick Collison. I don't think that team would suck. (It would be a whole lot better than an All-Asian Basketball team, for starters . . . and as a guy who's parents were born in Asia I can say that, I guess in that Russell Peters type of "i'm a minority so I can be racist" type of comedy that Sarah Silverman employs) That's a tangent though . . . I wanted to make an all European Basketball team to counter . . . this is what I came up with (In no order):

1. Tony Parker (PG) -- France/Spurs
2. Hidayet Turkoglu (SF/SG) -- Turkey/Magic
3. Andrei Kirilenko (SF/PF) -- Russia/Jazz
4. Dirk Nowitzki (PF/C) -- Germany/Mavericks
5. Pau Gasol (PF/C) -- Spain/LA Lakers
6. Jose Manuel Calderon (PG) -- Spain/Raptors
7. Sasha Vujacic (SG/PG) -- Slovenia/LA Lakers
8. Rudy Fernandez (SG/SF) -- Spain/Trailblazers
9. Predrag Stojakovic (SF/SG) -- Serbia (Croatia)/Hornets
10. Linas Kleiza (SF/PF) -- Lithuania/Nuggets
11. Mehmet Okur (PF/C) -- Turkey/Jazz
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (C) -- Lithuania/Cavaliers

If you want only "White Euros" then take out Tony Parker and put in Beno Udrih instead and start Jose instead. I think that team would be pretty comparable to the USA Whitey's team, though probably beat them in a 7 game series handily. The Euro team would surely flop a whole lot as well . . . the toughest guy on the European team would have to be either Kleiza or Okur, which says a whole lot.

"I was saying booo-urns . . . !" - Hans Moleman from The Simpsons. "Apparently" the NYC Crowd is not booing Chris Duhon. Or are they? Read it at What would Oakley Do? The Duhon/Fog Light analogy is as hilarious as it is apt -- and reason enough to read this article.

Apparently Jerry Sloan has been coaching the Jazz since the Ronald Reagan years . . . the Salt Lake Tribune brings the funk on that while I ponder just how many years I've been a fanatic fan of the NBA . . . and how much else I could have accomplished in my life if I was not . . .

Flashback Friday: Some other young Jazz players that got better after their rookie seasons or how I stopped worrying and learned to love the Long Bomb (from Morris Almond)

No doubt by now you've heard that Morris Almond is out, or will be soon. The Jazz did not end up picking up his contract extension. They are planning on trading him, and Almond himself admits that he saw this coming -- basically ever since this happened. It really sucks, because I kind of called it a while ago (read #3) . . . but let's not throw the baby out with the bath water. Morris Almond is not a finished product, which NBA Rookie is? (Take Karl, for example: he didn't shoot FT's well at all, and surely did not average 30-10 as a rookie) Almond is competitive compared to the 'average' NBA shooting guard. He's only going to get better. I think that he can be a good player, and heck, he knows how to score. He gets to the line. He would be one of the most talented 5th options out there in the L, if he started. (Is CJ really that much better than him on defense? Really?)

Well, Almond isn't the only young Jazz player to be (apparently) shipped off after a very short audition. The startling thing is that so many players (almost all) get better in their 2nd and 3rd seasons in the league. Are we really ready to get rid of him so soon? [Some people are ready to move on already . . . ]

What if we got rid of John Stockton after his rookie year? In his rookie season he shot 18% from three, a low 70% from the FT line and a solid 47 fg%. He played quite a bit though, 18 mpg and had a very impressive 5 ppg and 5 apg. The next year after that he upped his playing time and got 7 and 7. He still shot 13% from deep that year. The year after that he averaged 7 and 8. Hmmm, has his reached his plateau? (5 and 5, 7 and 7, 7 and 8) If there was no space for John then I guess the current Jazz brass would have gotten rid of him, try to trade him away for a roster spot . . . or, well, do what they actually did. They gave him the minutes and he went from 7 and 8 one season to 14 and 14 the next. It would have been a shame to give up on John after three seasons, as his 4th was the charm.

Almond doesn't have to become a super star in order to be useful though . . . look at Kris Humphries.

We all hated that guy, but he's become a solid rotation guy for the Toronto Raptors. Last season he ended up averaging 6 ppg and 4 rpg. He played in Utah for two seasons, but he was just too young to be any good in the league, he did not have any NBA experience (same with Almond, btw) and when he played -- he only played with players worse than him (also like Almond, btw). Is Humphries a guy who deserved to be picked in the lotto? Based on what people thought of him back then the answer is yes. Has his NBA career backed that up? No. Is he better than Jarron Collins [1.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg] -- a guy who we continue to pay as he gets worse every season since his Rookie year -- and could a guy like Humphries be useful to us, as our current back up centers all suck? The answer better be yes, or you are lying to yourself. Even if Almond never becomes awesome he can still be a great rotation guy on any contending team . . . how great at defense is Eddie House? All he did was sub in the game and shoot threes.

Probably the best case (because Stockton didn't have 2 guys ahead of him) is Mo Williams.

He plays for the Cavs now, and looks a little lost, but as a rookie for the Jazz he got to play 13.5 mpg (for the record, Almond only played 4 mpg as a rookie). That was enough for Mo Williams to get 5 ppg and 1.3 apg. Nothing too great, much worse than Stockton got . . . but unlike the 3 year internship Stockton got, Mo got the boot after 1 year. Since then he's put up seasons of 10 ppg and 6 apg and 17 ppg and 6 apg -- twice. Sure, I'm happy that we got Deron Williams running things now instead of Mo Williams -- but there's no causality in there that prevented us from getting Deron. We could have just as easily sucked with Mo being there as Andrei and Boozer both got injured that season before Deron.

Is Morris Almond a Stockton to CJ's Green? Or is he more a Mo Williams to Arroyo and Lopez? I love Brewer, but I don't think that he can become a complete player for a two guard, as I fail to see him ever being able to consistently (40%) knock down the three. CJ has all the potential in the world, but he's still developing an NBA body and this is his 4th season in the NBA -- he's not very consistent either, even from quarter to quarter. Almond, on the other hand, seems like he can be a complete player (though he suffers from Boozer-itis on defense), and he is consistent. Brewer is the guy now, and he is the most exciting and athletic. CJ is young and has shown flashes of brilliance. I do think that out of the three, though, the one who is most likely to be a prime time contributor in the playoffs on a contending team would have to be Almond -- once people figure out a role for him, let him do what he's good at, and then give him minutes.

And that's the crux of this argument . . . there just does not seem to be any minutes for him. There were minutes for Stockton AFTER FOUR YEARS WITH THE TEAM, and he got a chance to produce. There were minutes for Humphries in the two years he was here, but he did not produce -- though he has developed into a rotation player (he was 19 with the Jazz, btw, and has no brain) in the years he's had outside of Utah. Mo Williams was dropped after only one season, and out of the guys he was dropped in favor of, he's currently the only one who is any good. Unlike those three guys, Almond did not even get a chance to play 5 mpg with the Jazz -- he did entirely destroy the NBA-DL, and set their scoring records on fire. It's a dirty damn shame that the Jazz are just taking the easy way out and not working him into the lineup (or future plans) . . .  Almond has to go while Harpring stays. With that type of thinking then I guess Johnny boy is going to move into the White House while Obama looks for a new job. For the record, I don't like either candidate -- but I like Almond over Harpring anyday. At least Almond is healthy and can learn to play better defense. Harpring is just physiologically incapable of it.

Rafael Araujo waived by Timberwolves

This story is all of 3 days old, and here are the (slightly contrasting) reactions from Raptors fans and Utah Jazz fans. This story is kinda pointless, but I really needed an excuse to post this picture . . . and now I have just the excuse I was looking for.

"Wel-come . . . to FANtasy Island!" -- Yeah, you know, like Ricardo Montalban and Herve Villechaize . . . but a bit more homosexual this time around.

Seriously though, part of the problem is the fact that the T-Wolves have a lot of good(ish) young guys in the frontcourt. The other part of the problem seems to stem from Araujo's flaws as a player. I wish him luck as he seems like a pretty nice guy and as he is a former Utah Jazz player after all.

Most clutch team from last season?

The super geniuses who run 82games.com are full of lovely stat goodies, ripe for the picking. Of particular interest to me was their run down on which teams from last regular season (2007-2008) were the most clutch. First of all, clutch is defined as the time period of the  "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points" (82games.com, 2008). As a team the Utah Jazz played in the least clutch minutes, only 114 spread out over 34 games. By contrast, the Cleveland Cavaliers played by far the most clutch minutes that season, 228 minutes over 55 games. It's no surprise then that if you play more than half of your season in these situations that you are going to accumulate a much larger +/- score than any other team. [Cleveland's +/- is +132 for the season, and the next best team, the San Antonio Spurs, only gets a +55 for the season] Thus, we can conclude that there is only a limited value to these stats when observed in how they actually played out in specific games. Their true value lies in the extrapolation of the game results across the average, so that the general trends of the team can be seen . . . specifically as an average, and not a sum.

The teams that shot the best from the field during this 'clutch time' were the Spurs and the Jazz, who both shot 50.0 fg %. The other West playoff teams ranked as such: Phoenix (#6, 46.4 fg%), the LA Lakers (#14, 43.3 fg%), New Orleans (#16, 41.8 fg%), Dallas (#18, 41.2 fg%), Denver (#21, 40.6 fg%) and Houston (#25, 38.5 fg%).

The Jazz were surprisingly proficient (or in this case, CLUTCH) from three as well during the season. They shot 41.3 3pt %, and only Seattle did better at 42.2 3pt % for the season. The next Western Conference team was Sacramento (#6, 36.8 3pt %). It's nice to know that no playoff team from either conference was as clutch as the Jazz were from deep.

Utah's smashmouth style also netted them the 2nd most average FTA in clutch time (over 48 minutes), 55 free throw attempts. The Charlotte Bobcats only got to the line with more ferocity (60 free throw attempts), the next best Western Conference Playoff team was the LA Lakers (tied for 5th, with 50 fta). Compounding the problem for other teams, the Jazz shot 83 ft% in clutch time, tied for 2nd best in the NBA with the Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons (two teams the Jazz went to the line much more than). The Toronto Raptors were the best in the league, and their great shooting roster produced an 84 ft% average.

True to the gameplan, 70% of the Jazz baskets were assisted (tops in the league), the second best team were the lowly Chicago Bulls with only 64%. Utah also had the most APG in this situation, with 25.7 assists, more than 3 more than the Spurs, who were #2. If you add it all up, the Jazz end up scoring 126 points (second only to the pace-tastic Golden State Warriors).

It's not all offense for the clutch Utah Jazz, as they were tied for 2nd in total number of blocks at 7.2 with the Bulls. The Jazz also rebounded the ball more than the ring winning Spurs. Ordinal rankings would then suggest that the Jazz were among the most clutch teams last season -- if not the most clutch last season.

Photographed by Michelle Majchrzak for NBAE / Getty Images

To see all of this for yourself, visit 82games.com and see how all 30 teams stack up in clutch time!

Flashback Friday: First 20 games of previous seasons

As the trees change colors and all the snotty kids begin to learn their locker combinations at school the seasonal dynamics take another turn -- a turn towards the return of the NBA. Before you know it, it'll be opening night. The NBA schedule makers usually have to give the Jazz the short end of the stick (because our owner doesn't fancy home games on Sunday), and our last month of the season (April) the last few seasons have been absolutely brutal. That said, the Jazz usually start off strong in the first handful of games before taking a mid-season nose dive in December.

In the 2002-2003 season Utah went 12-8 in the first 20 games of the season. Some of the boxscores were just flat out nutty on that team. For example, the first game of the season (a 100-75 loss to the New Orleans Hornets) had Malone lead the team with 20 points, had Mark Jackson lead the team in rebounds with 7, and Malone and Stockton led the team with assists with only 4 each. Malone led the team in scoring 11 times, Kirilenko 3 times, Harpring 4 times, Stockton 2 times and Ostertag 1 time. (The next few games were even crazier, including increasingly less scoring from Malone, and more from Kirilenko and Harpring, who would lead the scoring for the Jazz in 9 of the next 10 games.) Clearly it was a season of transition. By the start of January Malone had broken 30 points in a game once, and Harpring and Kirilenko did it a combined three times. That team finished the season 47 - 35 and was bounced from the playoffs in the first round by Sacramento in 5, Stockton and Malone's last game together.

The next season (2003-2004) was the first season without John Stockton on our team since the early 80's. The Jazz started the season 11-9 and were led by the likes of Arroyo, Kirilenko, Harpring, Stevenson, Bell and Lopez. A mid-season trade for Gordan Giricek proved to be a smart move immediately as he helped the team with his scoring (24 points in a win against Detroit, 21 points in a win against the Lakers, 33 points in a win against Phoenix on the road, 25 in a loss to the Raptors, 19 in a win against New Orleans, 22 in a loss to the Spurs, 25 in a win against Memphis and 23 in a win against Houston -- all in the last two months of the season) on the way to a 42-40 final record. The Jazz barely missed the playoffs and this special shooting guard seemed to be a big part of that. (I wonder what happened to this guy who could go off for 20+ points on any given night?) Andrei was an All-Star this season, if I remember correctly.

That off season the Jazz front office had a free agent coup by signing Carlos Boozer (FA), and Mehmet Okur (RFA) to big money deals. The results of the first 20 games of 2004-2005 speak for themselves though: the Jazz went 9-11. This was the first time they were below .500 to start the season in quite a long time. The future looked bright for the Jazz as Boozer was scoring quite a bit (27 in the 1st game of the season, and win against the Lakers; quickly followed by games of 30, 34, 27, 25, 27, 36, 29 and so on) and Andrei was doing his all around thing . . . but both went down and did not finish the season. The Jazz finished with a 26-56 record, and a date with the ping-pong balls.

The very next season Carlos Boozer got injured in the pre-season and the 2005-2006 season was beginning to look a lot like Deja Vu for Jazz fans. Utah limped to a 8-12 record to start the season, some wins relying on Matt Harpring scoring 30 points and Jarron Collins getting 10 boards. Utah finished the season 41-41, just baring missing the playoffs again! This season finished with the starting lineup of Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko (at the 2), Matt Harpring, Mehmet Okur (at the 4) and Carlos Boozer (at the 5). For those who forgot, the Jazz won 7 of their last 10 games (2 of those losses were to the Spurs though).

Utah finally makes the playoffs in 2006-2007, winning the Northwest Division title and breaks 50 wins in a season for the first time in what seems like eternity. The Jazz go 51-31 off of some strong performances by Boozer, Okur and Williams, after an amazing 15-5 start! Everyone was finally healthy and a 2nd year Deron Williams powered the team as Memo and Booz were honored to be part of the Western Conference All-Star team.

Last season (2007-2008) the Jazz improved on their win total and end the season with a 54-28 record. How did they start? They started the season 13-7 -- which is less than the previous season, but they ended up winning more games. They ended up trading Gordan Giricek for Kyle Korver and won their 2nd straight Northwest Division title (sorry AI and the rest of the Denver Media Hype Bandwagon).

Here is a recap of the past 6 seasons:

Season	1st 20 games	Season Record	Playoffs?	Won Division?
2002-2003	12-8	47-35	Yes
2003-2004	11-9	42-40
2004-2005	9-11	26-56
2005-2006	8-12	41-41
2006-2007	15-5	51-31	Yes	Yes
2007-2008	13-7	54-28	Yes	Yes

So we can clearly see that starting off well is very important to the Jazz actually making the playoffs. Every season where we've won at least 12 of the first 20 games has us making the playoffs and being close to a 50 win team. It's probably something to watch then as winning games early and making the playoffs seem to share some common factors, if not are correlated to one another.

What do our first 20 games look like this season?

Game	vs.		Game	vs.
1	Denver	1-0	11	Phoenix	8-3
2	LA Clippers	2-0	12	Milwaukee	9-3
3	@ LA Clippers	3-0	13	@ San Antonio	9-4
4	Portland	4-0	14	@ Memphis	10-4
5	Oklahoma City	5-0	15	Chicago	11-4
6	@ NY Knicks	6-0	16	Memphis	12-4
7	@ Philadelphia	6-1	17	Sacramento	13-4
8	@ Washington	7-1	18	New Jersey	14-4
9	@ Charlotte	8-1	19	@ Sacramento	14-5
10	@ Cleveland	8-2	20	Miami	15-5

Sure, that's with the homer hat on, but I think that we will finally beat the Knicks in NY, and drop games against the Cavs on the road, and against the Suns, Spurs and Kings (in Sactown). This may be a conservative estimate, but after the first 20 games we very well should have around 15 wins!

Utah Jazz on National TV -- what to look for!

I guess this is improvement on some level, you know what I'm talking about . . . I've been a hardcore Jazz fan for 20 years or so now, and I've never seen them on National TV so much in one regular season. How many times are the Jazz going to be seen nationally? 11 times! That is really a lot, as I'm used to the 3-6 games a season that I may get a chance to see (mostly on TNT double headers). Anyway, let's take a look at what to we're bound to see:

November 12th, 2008		December 5th, 2008
	Utah @ Washington on ESPN -- This is the first game on National TV for the Jazz and they face off against a team of excellent outside shooters, led by Gilbert Arenas. He and Deron will feature prominently in this game.		Utah vs. Toronto on ESPN -- I don't know the last time that the Raptors won in Utah, but they are not to be slept on. This game has two deep teams, starting with All-Star Power Forwards Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer.
Photograph by Pablo Martinez Monsivais for AP Photo		Photograph by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images
December 11th, 2008		February 5th, 2009
	Utah vs. Portland on TNT -- Roy, Aldridge, Oden, that Spanish kid and more . . . why don't we just give them the NBA Title already? (Oh wait, didn't the media already give that to the Rockets or Lakers? I keep getting confused with all the conflicting hype.)		Utah vs. Dallas on TNT -- For some silly reason I think the Mavs will be better (and more desperate) this season. This should be a good match where the good guys should hopefully win. This could be projected as a potential 1st round match up, hence TNT picking this game
Photograph by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images		Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images
February 19th, 2009		March 6th, 2009
	Utah vs. Boston on TNT -- Hopefully the Jazz can avenge their loss to the C's in Utah with a win against the NBA Champs on their home floor. Boston didn't get better this off-season, while we did. Hopefully Ray Allen is shooting blanks.		Utah vs. Denver on ESPN -- Denver really got worse over the off-season, no Camby means that Boozer will probably have a big game, which would be nice seeing how it has become an increasingly rare thing lately.
Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images, remixed by Basketballjohn.com		Photograph by Unknown for AP Photo
March 24th, 2009		March 28th, 2009
	Utah vs. Houston on TNT -- I fully expect something insane to happen between Ron Artest and Matt Harpring. I also half expect one of the other two stars on Houston to be injured for this game. Yet, I can easily see Houston winning this game.		Utah @ Phoenix on ESPN -- Memo vs. Shaq, Nash vs. Deron and two power forwards who don't play any defense . . . the perfect TV Game if there ever was one. The team that makes it first to 110 will probably win the game.
Photograph by Harry How for NBAE/Getty Images		Photograph by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images
April 2nd, 2009		April 8th, 2009
	Utah @ Denver on TNT -- Remember this guy? Hopefully he doesn't go for 40 again as the Jazz face off for the 2nd time on National TV against Northwest Division Rivals Denver.		Utah @ Dallas on ESPN -- The Jazz need to start beating home teams on the road (besides Detroit and Boston). Dallas would be a good place to display this on TV for all the see. Look for Kidd to get the business from Deron.
Photograph by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images		Photograph by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images
April 14, 2009
	Utah @ LA Lakers on TNT -- As it's a televised game against the Lakers on the road I fully expect the Jazz to lose. No doubt this game will have playoff implications, most likely are we in the 3 vs. 6 bracket, or the 4 vs. 5 bracket.
Photograph by Unknown for NBAE/Getty Images

Ideally, I would like the Jazz to play games on national TV against crappy teams, so that I can watch the Jazz win. Each of these contests (save maybe for Denver in SLC) should be very close. I'm happy to see Utah getting some TV time though, so I shouldn't complain.