Showing posts with label Statistics - Double Double. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics - Double Double. Show all posts

Monday, May 18, 2009

Who else is sick with the Great Hype surrounding Andrew “Bust”num?

Rehab aint easy . . . If you’ve ever wandered onto an LA Lakers blog, message board, or listened to a nationally broadcasted game by Mike “Fellatio for the Lakers 24/7” Tirico then you’ll know, with complete certainty, that Andrew Bynum is one of the best centers in the league, and will without giving any prior notice, become the next best center in the league and join the pantheon of great bigmen. He will rightfully sit alongside Wilt, Russell and Kareem while using Ewing, Robinson and O’Neal as foot rests. The third footrest will be necessary because of how great and grand his male organ must be – as he has been photographed at the Playboy mansion (who cares) and is curiously linked to Rihanna right now. (who? exactly.)

As impressive as his potential appears, and as great as his off-court life may or may not be (I’d rather hang out at the Acharya mansion any day of the week) – I’m less than impressed with him as a player. I’m even less impressed when I actually look at his accomplishments as a player in the playoffs (aka. when it counts). Furthermore, I’m pretty much sick to death by the hype that he has received from casual fans, homer fans, and the media alike. Now, this isn’t meant to trash the hopes of the future of the Lakers at all – I strive to temper the expectations of him a little bit. For his sake, and ours.

My brother is the most rational Lakers fan I know, he is passionate, but not completely under the spell that countless others are on the internet. He’s more concerned with consistent play, rebounding and solid defense from all of the Lakers and does not have the time to worry about if Bynum is going to be the next Kareem – he’s worried about right now. If I was a Lakers fan I wouldn’t be worried about right now – you guys will trounce Denver on your way to the NBA Finals (where anything can happen). I would, on the other hand, be worried about the past – specifically Bynum’s past.

He’s 21 years old right now and was drafted as a 17 year old. What do we know about him that should really count? How about the fact that he had an injury ruined high school career (leg/knee injury), and in the NBA has had two more leg/knee injuries in his young career. He’s tall, but not nearly as super athletic and fit as freaks like Dwight Howard or Amare Stoudemire are – I don’t expect him to be physically made of the same stuff as those guys are. When you get over 7 feet tall, any injuries to your lower body seriously limit how reliable you can be, regardless of how much work one may put on their upper bodies. (You’re only as strong as your base is – look at Yao Ming, who has just a storied lower body injury history as Bynum, he misses lots of games every year, and is never 100% due to the strain his body puts on his lower body) Amare had two career ending (had this been the 80’s/90’s) knee injuries, but has come back due to a great work ethic. Bynum puts women on his shoulders during rehab. I wouldn’t be making a huge leap by suggesting that Bynum may have a career that features a number of injuries to his lower body, not unlike Yao Ming – as opposed to being virtual injury free like Dwight Howard. But I have no crystal ball, I’m just going on the fact that he’s a big guy with a history of lower body injuries who was injury prone as a teen and only looks to put an increasingly large strain on those same joints as his ages and increases mass.

That’s not very empirical though, it’s just an assumed health arc based on his body type, job, apparent work ethic, how healthy other big guys his size have been and medical history. What is empirical, on the other hand, is to dig deep and look at stats. I love stats. Stats are flawed, as I’ve explained on this blog before, but they still give a pretty good indication of on court production. (After all, that’s what counts, points, rebounds, blocks, assists, steals, turn overs and fouls, right?)

After this last game against the Houston Rockets the total number of playoff games that Bynum has participated in stands at 18. These 18 games have taken him from 2005-2006 till now to amass. In that time he has been brought along slowly – thanks to the fact that he doesn’t need to be useful when he’s so far down the pecking order behind at least 4 other guys. That said, his production does not appear to be indicative of him joining the pantheon of great bigmen any decade soon. I want to look at his stats in the playoffs and see the promise that appears to be there (and only appears in regular season games against bad teams sandwiched between injuries). As a point of reference I looked at Patrick Ewing’s first 19 games (why not 18? wanted to complete that one series to make it an even number of playoff off series for the two) in the playoffs. Ewing was a great center, but never will he be called the best of his generation, and thus, not up for entry into the pantheon of greatest bigmen ever (though the media has already reserved a spot there for Bynum).

Bynum’s first 18 Playoff games, and how they stack up:

Bynum Ewing and Robinson Ewing creams Bynum statistically. And Ewing played in a time where big guys weren’t bailed out with foul shots, and played against much better competition. Bynum played against the Phoenix Suns, twice anchored in the paint by Frenchman Boris Diaw; the injury depleted Utah Jazz that was forced to start Jarron Collins; and the Houston Rockets, who during the course of the series, lost Yao Ming to injury a little more than 2 games in – and had to turn to a rotation of Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry and Luis Scola to battle LA’s 7 footers. Bynum gets killed – just look at the stats.

Alas, he is immune to any criticism for a great rebuttal exists: Ewing had much more experience from being a guy who actually went to college, won a National Title; and also played in the NBA for a few seasons before making the playoffs. All this is true, but nothing prevented Bynum from going to college himself – if he was really interested in experience. That said, I also took a chance to look at another young bigman, and saw how he faced the NBA pressure. David Robinson did manage to make the playoffs as a rookie (he led his team there, unlike Bynum who did his best to stay out of Kobe’s way). David Robinson is far from my favorite player in the world – but he also creams Bynum’s numbers when you take out experience and look just at Bynum’s FIRST FOUR SEASONS against David’s ROOKIE season.

Let’s not forget that David had to go to war against Joe Barry Carroll and the plethora of tough guys in the paint that Portland sported back when David was a rookie. Bynum, with 4 years of experience in the NBA, has yet to face anything like that in the NBA playoffs – and his numbers are completely pathetic.

Ewing: 22.1 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 2.37 bpg

Robinson: 24.4 ppg, 12.00 rpg, 4.00 bpg

Bynum: 4.83 ppg, 3.78 rpg, 0.67 bpg

Obviously the data is heavily skewed against poor, young Bynum. His first few playoff sorties were short and he was inexperienced. Obviously the stats are going to go against him when you include some of his early games. The Bynum of today is a beast though! Look at Bynum’s numbers from just his 4th season in the playoffs against other greats and you’ll see! You’ll all see!

Okay, let’s do that then.

Bynum’s Playoff stats from his 4th season, and how those stats stack up:

Bynum closer to Ostertag than Olajuwon Bynum’s numbers improve very slightly, he ups his ppg from 4.83 to 5.58, his free throw percentage from 62.96% to 76.47% and he swats almost 0.2 more blocks per game. Still not impressed. He’s a far cry from, let’s just randomly say, Hakeem Olajuwon. In the Dream’s 4th NBA season he happened to tear the NBA playoff’s a new one with his scoring -- 37.5 ppg (57.14 fg%, 88.37 ft%); rebounding – 16.75 rpg; and all around game – 2.75 bpg, 1.75 apg, 2.25 spg.

Not only did Hakeem obliterate Bynum’s pitiful offensive output by a magnitude nearing 7x, but absolutely owned him all over the boxscore. He also did it against much tougher competition as well.

Heck, Bynum is so far from being impressive that Greg Ostertag’s fourth year playoff stats could (and do) give Bynum’s fourth year playoff stats a run for their money. It’s horrible to say, but really Lakers fans (and media, or is that redundant?) – take a look and weep.

Bynum is a much better offensive player than Ostertag (is this even saying anything?), but Ostertag owns Bynum when it comes to rebounds and blocks. Greg even managed to out-assist Bynum and made less mistakes (as seen in less turn overs and fouls per game).

What’s worse, the fact that Bynum just got his lunch handed to him by Ostertag; or the fact that Ostertag was doing this against super duper vets and talented players like Vlade, Arvydas, Dale Davis and Rasheed (when Ostertag was a 4th year player) – and looking better than media adored Bynum going up against Chuck Hayes and the guy who was behind Ostertag on the depth chart?

Furthermore, Bynum’s had 5 scoreless games in the playoffs, out of 18. And he’s scored less than 5 points 11 times out of 18. Ouch.

Take a look at Hakeem’s 37.5 ppg average again. Ouch.

Of course, there HAS to be a rebuttal for this . . . no way can Bynum been so far behind Hakeem at the same stage of NBA experience, and yet so close to NBA laughingstock Greg Ostertag . . . right?  . . . .right? Don’t worry Lakers fans, of course there is . . . forget about NBA experience, that’s a flawed concept. Let’s not forget that Hakeem and Greg both played college ball (like Ewing and Robinson did) . . . Bynum didn’t play college. Look at how young he is! He’s only 21! Surely when you take that into account it makes up for 32 ppg (in the case of Hakeem), or nearly a block and a half (in the case of Ostertag)!!!

Okay, let’s take at a look at that. Try me.

Bynum’s Playoff stats as a 21 year old, and how those stats stack up against another 21 year old:

Bynum is a far cry from Shaq when looking at their stats at age 21 Bynum is a very brittle 21 year old who doesn’t have to do anything, and his team makes it to the NBA Finals. I’m not lying, the Lakers did that last season. That said, Bynum is a force of nature, and the future of the center position in the NBA. His 21 year old production is unrivaled. Right? Wrong. Take a look at this guy, and what he did in the playoffs at the tender age of 21 (his 2nd season in the L, not his 4th like Bynum). I just have one hyphenated word to describe this: Shaq-Attaq.

A lot of the same Lakers fans who champion Bynum marginalize how great Shaq was. I can clearly see why Kobe went out of his way to suggest that Bynum needed to be traded – because Kobe knew how good Shaq was. The difference between the two is quite telling when you look at these two centers at the age of 21, Bynum in his 4th season and Shaq in his 2nd.

The difference between the two was almost 15 points, 10 rebounds and over 2 blocks and almost 2 assists . . . in favor of the 2nd year player.

That’s a huge difference.

The difference between being called one of the best bigmen of all time, and being called a bust.

Bynum was a lotto pick man, and aside from his inspired dirty play in injuring two guys this season, and being afraid of Fesenko in the paint, he’s done nothing to earn the high praise that’s heaped on him. And he’s done nothing to make me feel like giving him any props.

His current playoff run isn’t over yet, and he’s got one, most likely two more playoff series to make his 2008-2009 playoffs slightly more memorable than his complete no-show in the 2007-2008 playoffs.

I’m taking it easy on Bynum here by comparing him to guys that he may yet one-day reach . . . even if it doesn’t seem like it. I could really try to down him if I wanted by comparing him to his contemporaries who are out-playing him right now. For example take Dwight Howard -- in his first 14 playoff games: 17.86 ppg (57.23 fg%, 51.72 ft%), 15.5 rpg, 2.71 bpg, 1.14 apg, 0.714 spg . . . those numbers are way better than Bynum’s. Also better are Dwight’s numbers as a 21 year old and Dwight’s numbers in his 4th NBA season.

If I really wanted to be a dick I’d mention that Dwight also has 3 less leg injuries. I’m not a dick though, so I’m not going to mention that.

 

 

What did we learn?

What did we learn? Well, for starters we learned that Andrew Bynum’s playoff performances leave much to be desired. His first 18 games in the playoffs pales in comparison to Ewing’s numbers over the same situations – and Ewing played against much better defensive clubs like Michael’s Bulls and the Bad Boy Pistons. We learned that David Robinson’s rookie season playoff numbers invalidates the argument that Bynum’s rookie numbers shouldn’t count. We also learned that Hakeem’s numbers as a fourth year player completely eclipse Bynum’s as a 4th year player. I didn’t even have to look up 2nd tier NBA centers like Rik Smits at all after I found out that at the same level of NBA experience that Greg Ostertag’s playoff performance was a wash with that of Bynum’s. Lastly, we learned that Bynum can’t even hide behind his age as an excuse for how poor his performances have been – as Shaq as a 21 year old eats Bynum up. Ultimately, we learned that it’s a bit too premature to call Bynum anything other than a bust at this stage. He’s much closer to Ostertag, albeit one who rebounds and blocks less, and fouls and turns the ball over more, than he is to being one of the greatest bigmen of all time – let alone in his own generation.

After all, Dwight’s numbers at each break down (first x number of games, 4th NBA season, and at age 21) are vastly superior to Bynum’s. Oh yeah, also Bynum has a history of injury problems to the same parts of his body and young guys who sustain so many injuries in short succession tend to have injury plagued careers. Yeah, I wasn’t supposed to mention that again . . . I guess I am a dick after all.

Bynum doesn’t deserve his hype until he does something. Something other than sucking when it counts, that is.

If you liked the stat breakdown, and would like a full version at full resolution, click on the image below. I dunno, maybe you are just into making Bynum look silly . . . or want a stat heavy window’s desktop wallpaper . . . or both? Go nuts!
Click to view in full resolution

Thursday, November 27, 2008

10 Things Jazz fans should be thankful for

It's genocide day turkey day here in America, and one of the most gluttonous days of the year. (nothing says 'thanks' like your body physiologically shutting itself down so you do not eat anymore food) Anyway, so far this season the Jazz aren't one of the top 5 teams in the league (percentage-wise, the best teams are the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns), but they Jazz very well could have been one of the bottom 5 teams if they felt sorry enough for themselves. There are a number of things the Jazz fans should be thankful for. Here they are:

1. Despite all the injuries/absences, the Jazz are still in it

 
Deron Williams approves

I felt as though the Jazz could hold then own in the chance that Deron Williams had to miss 6 weeks of action. Little did I know that he really WOULD be gone for almost that long. Even more upsetting was the fact that as a team, the Jazz lost quite a few players over that same time frame: Deron missed 13 games, Harpring missed 9, Collins more than 7, Okur missed 5, Boozer and Kover both missed 4 each, Brevin Knight and Andrei missed two games each as well. That's about 45 missed days of action, in only 16 games. The Jazz still managed to win 10 games and are only a win off of last year's pace. (Though, I thought that the Jazz would be 12-4 at this point in time this season, without Deron's injury)

Aside from shitting the bed against the Knicks, Wizards and Bobcats on the road, and the ridiculous loss to the Bulls (on our homecourt) the Jazz have played pretty well in every single game. Utah is 8-1 versus the Western Conference this season so far, and while we currently sit half a game out of 1st in our division, the Jazz are undefeated in games against division opponents this season. The Jazz are still in this, and if the playoffs started today we'd face off against Houston again. Don't tell me that wouldn't be a favorable match up?

2. The schedule

 
They suck, but we only played them half the time

This is an easy one as the Jazz have a record of 10-6 even though they were a walking M*A*S*H unit for most of the season. We Jazz fans should be thankful for the schedule makers and the schedule they gave us. Our first five games were comically easy -- especially when combined with the fact that we played clubs that were either not very good, or without key players in the first few games. (E.g. Denver without Carmelo Anthony due to a suspension, the Clippers without Baron Davis and Marcus Camby for one game, Portland without Greg Oden, etc).

Aside from the brutal 5 games in 7 nights Eastern Conference road trip (where the Jazz limped home going 1-4), the schedule has been pretty favorable early. Sure, this means that we have a brutal finishing schedule -- but I'd rather have it easy now when the team is trying to form an identity through all the injuries. If the Jazz had a brutal schedule now we may have 5 wins instead of 10.

3. Internal Development

 
Nov 17 2008 [AP Photo] Sap slaps Shaq

Regardless of who you play, you have to still be good enough to win games -- which the Jazz have been doing. The Jazz have been playing a kinds of crazy line-ups this season due to injuries -- and it's worked so far because of the internal development of the younger players. Paul Millsap, Ronnie Brewer, Ronnie Price and C.J. Miles have played in every game for Utah this season. They average between 21.8 mpg and 31.9 mpg -- and three of the four are averaging over 10 ppg. (Price is scoring the least, with only 7 ppg) Taking Deron Williams out of the equation (he's just as young as those guys), that's a pretty solid core of 4 young rotation guys.

Two or three seasons ago if you told me that Millsap would be using dribble spin moves in the lane to score on his man, Ronnie Brewer would be hitting threes, C.J. would be taking it strong to the rim, and our point guard (Price) would be dunking with two hands I'd call you crazy. Even our really young (in terms of NBA experience) guys aren't doing that bad. Morris Almond (for all of his flaws) is shooting 53.6 fg% in the NBA against NBA defenses, Kosta Koufos had a series of games where he was a shot blocking force and Fesenko (all of 18 minutes played total this season) showed that he can play -- in 12 minutes of action against Tim Duncan and the Spurs he had 5 rebounds, 2 blocks and made all of his shots. We should be happy our kiddy corp. is doing so well. They are a big reason why the Jazz are winning.

4. Team play

 
Nov 11 2008 [Tom Mihalek AP Photo] AK and Booz win on the road

Without Deron Williams (out of 13 of the first 15 games), the Jazz have had to rely on each other more. This is no more apparent than the number of people who have played point guard for the Jazz so far this season: 5 (Deron Williams, Ronnie Price, Brevin Knight, C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirilenko). Everyone seems to be pretty pass-happy though, and the Jazz are still among the league leaders in some offensive statistics.

For example, the Jazz worked the ball around so much that they still managed to be shooting the ball extremely well, 48.4 fg% so far, which is good enough for 3rd best in the league. The team is working well within the system, and it shows, as the Jazz are leading the league in assists per game (24.9 apg), even without a guy who averaged over 10 apg a game. Utah's also tied for 4th best in the league in assist to turn over ratio. Moreover, the Jazz have 6 guys who are averaging over double digits in points per game this season -- with Deron being close to making it seven (he's currently averaging 8.7 ppg in only 3 games).

Defensively the Jazz have been working better as a unit as well -- finally being able to actually execute a good zone defense at times, and helping one another -- which has resulted in getting 9.1 steals per game (3rd best in the league). Imagine how much better it'll get with Deron stopping penetration, now that he's healthy again!

5. The Coaching staff

 
Scott Layden, Phil Johnson, Jerry Sloan and Tyrone Corbin on Jazz media day (photographed by Melissa Majrchzak for NBAE/Getty Images)

Not only are the coaches a huge reason why the Jazz have weathered the storm early, but they are a huge reason why the Jazz have been in games at all. Who developed our younger players? The coaches did. Who has been making smart substitutions this season? Again, the coaches. Remember a few games back when we actually saw Ronnie Brewer play in the 4ht quarter, and how amazed we all were? Now we see that every game, and it's normal for us. That's a coaching decision that has paid off. Another happened to be taking Andrei out of 'observer mode' as a starter, and put him in 'active mode' off the bench. Speaking of our bench . . .

6. The Bench

 
 Kyle Throws it down [Melissa Majchrzak NBAE Getty]

. . . our bench is awesome this season. Sure, injuries have taken a bite out of our bench recently (Millsap has to start, Brevin is hurt, Kyle is hurt, Harpring is playing again, etc), but our bench has a lot of firepower. We actually won our first 5 games of the season because our bench was so much better than the other teams' bench during that span: +57 points, +34 rebounds, +27 assists, +16 steals, -4 blocks. (again, in just 5 games) The disparity would be even larger had guys like Baron Davis or Marcus Camby started in their games.

In previous seasons our hope as fans would be that the bench doesn't lose too much ground during their time on the floor. Now we have the opposite expectation of hoping our bench extends the lead during games. This is further constructed by the belief that all of our early season challenges with injuries will only further season our bench guys. During the last 16 games we've had crunch time line ups made of up Ronnie Brewer and 4 bench guys. This is the silver lining of having so many injuries though, our bench guys are stepping up and can contribute.

7. Defense

 
Brevin Knight makes life hard on other PGs

If you ever listen to our head coach Jerry Sloan you would come away with an integral understanding that the Jazz never ever *ever* play defense. This may very well be the case in Jerry's eyes, but when compared to the rest of the league the Jazz do not look too shabby on defense. Utah is allowing 95.9 ppg (even with all the injuries), which is good enough for 11th best in the entire league. We're doing better than noted defensive clubs like the Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls and under-rated Dallas. (At least when Avery was there) Furthermore, teams are shooting 45.3 fg% against the Jazz . . . while only being 17th best in the league, it's still better than a lot of clubs out there.

Lastly, the Jazz are very stingy when it actually comes to letting the other team get a number of possessions. The Jazz have shown a better tenacity for the ball than I can remember (thanks to, early on, Brevin, Brewer, AK and 'Sap getting a lot of minutes -- the Jazz force 16 turn overs per game, that's tied for 4th best in the league). If you keep this in the perspective of how many actual possessions this is, this is a greater feat than other teams that play a quicker pace (like the Nuggets, who are 3rd with 16.4 turn overs forced per game -- but play a game with way more total possessions).

8. Andrei is playing great

 
Oct 9 2008 [Steve C Wilson AP Photo] AK blocks Matt Barnes

Can you imagine how poorly we'd be floundering if it wasn't for his all-around (dare I hint at a performance that's near all-star level) game this year? Sure, statistically he's achieving stats that ARE comparable to what he used to net as an All-Star, but let's not delude ourselves into thinking that the coaches will notice this, and put him on the team. For the record, though, he is playing 30.1 mpg and shooting pretty well (save for from deep -- but everyone's had this problem with Deron out so long). He's giving the Jazz 13.3 ppg (48.3 fg%, 82.7 ft% on an average of 6 fta per game, tops on the team); 6.1 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg and 1.4 bpg. He's down from his 14/9/3/2/2 first week of the season, but it's still pretty good. Statistically, he's having the 4th best season of his career -- and he's doing it off the bench!

I've actually been more impressed with the stuff that he does that does not get much notice in boxscores. Specifically with the second unit he is always pointing and directing players to where they are supposed to be. It's a level of command and control that he deserves (as being the longest tenured player on the team) and finally gets, as the leader of the 2nd unit. It makes him happy, and he plays better when he's happy. He's had 15 points and above 8 times this season so far; last season he had 15 points or more 23 times the entire season including playoffs. Getting the ball in scoring position also fuels him on defense. Remember back when he had two blocks on Shaq with the game still in the balance? That happened in a game where he shot 50 fg%, nailed all of his free throws and finished with 19 points, 7 rebounds & 3 steals to go with his blocks.

9. Love him or hate him, Boozer is getting 20 and 10

 
Boozer had a wickedly quick spin move on this play to get open

Now that everyone is back on the "I Love AK" bandwagon, and no one is even talking (for better or worse) about Fesenko, it's Boozer's turn to be hated on again. He's injured right now, and has missed the last 4 games (games in which Millsap has occasionally produced some really crazy numbers), but day in and day out, Boozer has been a key component in 8 of our 10 wins. Forget that, Boozer has come to play (on offense mostly) every game. Here's his stat lines in losses:

  • 19 points, 18 rebounds;
  • 20 points, 7 rebounds;
  • 26 points, 15 rebounds;
  • 17 points, 9 rebounds (in the 5th game in 7 nights)

He's averaging 20.5 ppg and 12.3 rpg in our losses, so it's not like the losses are his fault. (per se) Dude is in a contract season, and we can't worry about what's happening this off-season right now. Right now wins are important, and Boozer's play so far has been quite positive. His defense still leaves something to be desired, but his numbers are hard to dismiss entirely. For those interested, Millsap's numbers in the last four games (all without Boozer) have been 15.3 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Clearly there is still a significant difference between the two, and we should be thankful that Booz has been so consistent so far this season.

10. Deron is finally healthy

 
Nov 26 2008 [Melissa Majchrzak NBAE Getty] Deron go to move is the step back jumper

Sure, his minutes may be graduated right now, and he may play less in the second game in a back to back set than normal, but he's back. For good. Having him on the floor really made our offense look 'back to normal'; and Brewer's sharp cuts near the basket are useful again with Deron's passing ability.

I'm thankful for him being back, as he elevates the team from being a 'good team' to being a championship contender.

There are many things we all can be thankful for, as Jazz fans, the best is yet to come for our team this year. (Even some of the talk heads at ESPN have already admitted in their chats that the Jazz are the team to watch for the 2nd half of the season, or alternatively, the team to watch in 2009, depending on the guy chatting)

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Game 4 Recap: Utah 103, Portland 96

Game at a Glance:

The young and inexperienced Portland Trailblazers own a number of double digit leads over the Jazz in Salt Lake City, but are unable to close the deal as the Jazz (again without veterans Deron Williams and Matt Harpring) come from behind in the 4th quarter to win it -- the classic battle of experience and poise against youth and enthusiasm. Somehow this game reminded me of a game between the 1998 Jazz and the 1998 Spurs -- the Jazz won the battles back then, but you can see the potential for Portland to eventually win the war (they have a lot of potentially awesome young players), just as the Spurs clearly have. Portland fans don't have much to be upset with here (I fail to see why they are so down -- read their reactions here, here and here); they almost won a huge game against a division rival on the road -- without having their best player play their best game. Brandon Roy had 18 points (6-16 fg, 0-2 3pt), 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal -- if you guys pull off upsets without Roy scoring 20 you should be happy. And that's almost exactly what happened last night.

[ ESPN's Boxscore -- NBA.com's Highlights ]

Jazz Quartet -- Top Four Players of the Game:

Andrei Kirilenko Brevin Knight Mehmet Okur Carlos Boozer
Andrei has been scoring well, but needs to work on his range again Brevin has been steady but not spectacular Memo is finding his shot again Hmmm . . . shouldn't your PF be driving and dunking instead of pulling up?
Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty

Like every game this season, in the 4th quarter he's shut down the other team's best offensive player. He also finished with 17 points (5-8 fg), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, and countless drawn fouls against Portland early in the 4th to put them in the penalty. AK-47 went 7-8 from the FT line to boot.

Maybe he gets more credit than he deserves, or maybe he gets less -- it doesn't matter, we don't win this game without his steadying influence and ability to be a disruptive force on defense. Brev finished with 6 points (3-4 from the floor), 6 assists, 3 steals and a board. Moreover, he ran the team and helped us get back from being down 11.

If it wasn't for his end of the shot clock magic in the 1st half, the Jazz go down by 20 instead of just 11 in this game. Okur is finally hitting some outside shots, and had a team high 22 points, and was 1 rebound away from a double double. (And a 20-10 game) He drew the defense to him, and allowed the Jazz to get offensive rebounds and post up wings in the 4th.

Like Memo, Boozer was just short of a double double and 20-10 game, he finished with 20 and 8. He was not as aggressive as I wanted him to be, and he took a lot more fading jumpers than he should have -- but with the game hanging in the balance he scored inside on a layup with less than 30 seconds left and made all of his free throws -- he had several key rebounds as well.

Hon. Mention:

Ronnie Brewer -- Brewer had 16 points (6-12 shooting, 1-1 from three, 3-3 from the FT line), 6 rebounds and 2 assists . . . and was instrumental for the win (that three was huge), but when it counted Brandon Roy was scoring on him / getting by him with ease. On the other hand, Brevin was much more active on defense and was big on both ends of the floor.

If it was Jazz Quintet then Ronnie Brewer would have been there, but then I would end up feeling bad at some other game down the line where 6 guys for our club did something good, and lament about it not being a Jazz sextet, and that's just dumb, and potentially not work safe.

I gotta draw the line somewhere, and Ronnie will have plenty of opportunities to make it down the line. He had a great game, and helped us on offense when we were making our run, and had some nice dunks -- but even more impressive where his confident outside jumpers in the 3th.

This was a sick throwdown

Digging Deeper:

I'm happy that we got this win, and I felt as though doing so without Deron was a distinct possibility. (Scroll down to week 3) That said, I tend to agree with Hammy over at True Blue Jazz -- this game was a European Rookie's open three point attempt away from being all tied up with 20 seconds to go -- we really could have used Deron's offense tonight. The good news is that we didn't need him, we won the game, and we're a game against the Thunder away from going 3 weeks without Deron Williams -- and haven't lost yet. The better news is that our bench is winning games for us. We've had a good bench for a few seasons now -- last year he did pretty okay (save for the playoffs) with Ronnie Price, Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring and Paul Millsap. (And CJ for emergencies)

Pick your Poison

This season we have Brevin Knight, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko and Paul Millsap -- this has been the line up that gets the Jazz on runs where we claw back into games, or go on and distance ourselves from the other team, with. Those four guys average 39.6 ppg (Only Korver is shooting under 46 fg% in that group at 43%), 18.3 rpg, 10.9 apg and 5.25 spg. Oh yeah, and those four guys get to the line an average of 12.9 times per game.

Not too shabby for the first 4 guys off your bench.

Portland is a good team, and I'm happy that we beat them. They have a few guys injured right now -- though I think that losing Deron (not to mention a valuable bench guy in Harpring) is worse than losing Oden (who you guys didn't need to beat us 3 times last year) and Webster. I think that Outlaw, Batum and Fernandez gives Portland some of the best young wings out there -- and that's not even counting Brandon Roy. Aldridge has a very effective offensive game (inside and out), but seriously . . . 2 boards? Total? Kyle Korver out-rebounded LaMarcus. This is just something the Blazer fans should not tolerate. Especially when guys like Batum crash the boards and get 6 for their effort (no need to even mention Przybilla who was a one man wrecking crew in the paint with 7 points, 16 boards and a million blocks). Portland harried the Jazz into 16 turn overs (so many in the 1st and 2nd quarter alone) and were on their way to a solid road win. I wouldn't be surprised to see the season series end in a split, or even 3-1 in favor of the Blazers if this first game is any indication. How often are the Jazz going to go 21 for 22 at the free throw line in a game? We needed every one of those to get back into this game and secure the win.

The under-appreciated positive is that Jerry Sloan is making some really good changes to the rotation depending on the situations of the game. And older version of Sloan would keep pounding away at the square peg and try to make it fit in a round hole (which results in a loss) -- but he was confident enough in our roster's make up (props to GM Kevin O'Connor) that he could keep switching people in and out to work for advantages. Need defense? Plug in Knight. Portland bringing the zone? Put in Okur and Korver. Is Przybilla out of the game? Put in Boozer and Millsap to score inside. As Siler points out, it worked out for us in this game. Hopefully Sloan will keep doing this all season long.

Next Game: Friday November 7th, 2008 -- Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz [9:00 PM EST]

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Game 3 Recap: Utah 89, LA Clippers 73

Game at a Glance:

The LA Clippers return home and return two star players to the active roster (Baron Davis and Marcus Camby) and hang tight for three quarters, only to allow Paul Millsap to outwork guys 4 inches taller than him and dominate the paint (he scored 15 points in a row for the Jazz in the 4th) while Carlos Boozer cheers from the bench. The Clippers went 9-20 from the free throw line while the Jazz made up for going 0-10 from three by going 25-31 from the line (despite Korver and Okur having 0-2 sequences from there early on). Jason Hart had a DNP-CD in Revenge Game #2.

Jazz Quartet -- Top Four Players of the Game:

Andrei Kirilenko Paul Millsap Mehmet Okur Carlos Boozer
AK was active on offense Hard work is often rewarded Memo got it going in the 2nd half Carlos with the quick spin to get free for two
Photographed by Andrew D. Bernstein for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by Stephen Dunn for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by Noah Graham NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by Stephen Dunn for NBAE/Getty Images
He locked down both Thornton & Mobley in the 2nd half *and* got a double double (15 points, 11 boards, 2 assists and 4 steals). Scored 15 points and grabbed 5 board in a row in the 4th quarter to finish with 24 and 9. Added 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. He let Andrei get a lot of his rebounds, and still has yet to hit a three; but his outside shot is getting better and scored 16 points (5/10 fg, 9 fta) Boozer didn't dominate, and did not have to. In less than 30 mins he got 13 points (6/10) and had 8 boards.

Digging Deeper:

Two new guys but still another loss for LAC The Utah Jazz can finally say that they've beaten a team at full strength -- even if it was the first time Baron Davis and Marcus Camby actually played with each other. [I'm completely avoiding the easy dig at the Clippers and questioning how much of a 'team' they really are if all they do is isolate a wing and have him go one on one all night long.] Through the first three quarters this game was a pain to watch. The first quarter featured an overmatched C.J. Miles being absolutely torched by Al Thornton. The sophomore took it to the 4th year player and scored three times on Ceejay in the first 2 minutes of the game. I don't want to be a dick here, well, maybe I do a little, but Morris Almond can get scored on just as easily . . . for those keeping score at home, Almond has played a little over 4 minutes this season and is shooting 67 fg%, and scored 5 points. CJ has played 44 minutes and shooting 33 fg% and scored 10 points. CJ also has one steal, 4 assists and 7 rebounds more than Almond . . . but he's played 11 times more minutes . . . I think Almond could pick up a steal and 4 assists in 40 minutes of action with the starters.

After Andrei came in the game Thornton only scored twice more the rest of the night. Mike Taylor got the start tonight for the Clippers while Jason Hart (who is having a hard time with the whole revenge game concept) got a DNP-CD. Baron Davis made an immediate impact in the game by hitting a three and pulling off one of those difficult DR.J flying out of bounds under the basket moves [see the move at 0:25 in this video if you don't know what I'm describing] that resulted in a nice pass to a cutting Camby. The Jazz starting guards were tepid in this game -- and made half of all their made field goals (2) in this quarter. The quarter ended 20-16 in favor of the home team.

Kirilenko is really taking command of this 2nd unit (that features Knight, Korver, Andrei (usually at the 2 on defense), Millsap and tonight Okur), and he is using his quicks to post up smaller guys and execute his patented alley-oop post up 180 layups while being fouled. Speaking of quicks, Millsap was using his face up / floor game to make some crazy layups and shots. You may remember that I suggested that Paul should use his speed and quickness more on offense . . . and he did tonight!

Utah's perimeter game hasn't been clicking (still looking for that first Money shot from Memo), and if the Jazz want to start beating good teams (instead of beating down on bad teams) then the offense needs to pick it up. What really saved us was our foul shooting (and the Clips bad luck there), you may also remember that we only beat the nuggets because of our foul shooting. So -- honestly -- we could be 1-2 right now if it wasn't for our luck at the stripe.

It's easy to fall in love with our defensive stats, but we've played some really bad teams,so there is no big secret WHY we've held teams to 82 ppg. It's because we played the Clippers twice and Denver without 'Melo. If we can keep teams under 90 after our brutal Eastern trip later this month then I'll be happily surprised. Almost as surprised as I was to see Korver miss two free throws in a row like he did right after hitting three in a row early on in this game. Korver did manage to net 7 points, grab 5 boards and steal the ball 3 times . . . had he made a few of this threes he easily would have been part of the Jazz Quartet up there.

Next Game: Wednesday November 5th, 2008 -- Portland @ Utah, 9:00 pm.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Game 2 Recap: Utah 101, LA Clippers 79; Game 3 Preview: Utah @ LA Clippers

Game at a Glance:

Things did not go so well for Jason Hart and the LA Clippers last game . . . they were really tired, having played in an overtime game the night before, and while they held it together for one solid half of basketball (tied at halftime 48 all), they got rolled in the 2nd half by a Jazz team that ended up setting a franchise record for fewest turn overs -- ever.

Jazz Quartet -- Top Four Players of the Game:

Andrei Kirilenko Ronnie Brewer Brevin Knight Carlos Boozer
AK continues to play amazingly Brewer may be a MIP candidate, without actually showing a great improvmenet in MPG Knight was instrumental in the 3rd Boozer is in a class all by himself so far this season
11 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals off the bench in 31 minutes of action. 16 points (6-10 shooting, 5 FTA), added 3 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in 26 mins. 8 points (4-6), 6 assists and 1 steal with zero turn overs and keyed the 3rd quarter run. Another 25 and 10 game, shot 12-18 from the field and added 3 assists in 31 minutes. 

Digging Deeper:

Obviously the game would have been much more different had Baron Davis and Deron Williams actually played . . . but instead we had the Cuttino Mobley (20 points, 3 rebounds) and Tim Thomas (16 points, 7 rebounds) express vs. the Ronnie Brewer (16 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals) and Carlos Boozer (25 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists) show. It was not too hard to figure out which side won based on those stats. Even the Jason Hart/Brevin Knight under card was very one-sided: Hart started the game but did not finish, and had a grand total of 2 points (1-4 fg), 2 assists, and 1 rebound. Knight came off the bench and had 8 points (4-6 fg), 6 assists and a steal.

Taylor is making Hart the 3rd string guy for the 4th year in a row

The big surprise was Mike Taylor, a rookie PG for the Clippers who ended up playing 33 minutes and finished with 13 points and 4 assists. On TV it looked like he was a giant compared to Brevin Knight, and his long arms and quick first step were a major component of his success against the Jazz on Saturday night.

A second, smaller surprise was that in garbage time Jazz fans got to see Morris Almond, Kyrylo Fesenko and Kosta Koufos all play at the same time in an NBA game -- which may be an event that may never happen again...

Almond looked good with his shooting stroke; Koufos looked like a rookie who was immediately attacked on offense and defense by Kaman, who scored on him and blocked his shot; Fesenko did much more in less time than Koufos, getting a steal, a rebound and a nice dunk.

Before we pat ourselves on the back for winning another game without Deron Williams (and Jerry Sloan, Matt Harpring and Jarron Collins) let's point to the fact that this was a Clippers team that doesn't know each other, whose best players are injured and played an overtime game the night before. Also we were at home . . . where we seem to play pretty well at.

Game 3 Preview:

We get the other end of the home and home series tonight with a game in LA this time around. I do not know the status of Davis and Camby, aside from that they are listed as Day-to-Day. Having one of those two back, in addition to playing at home, may be just enough to push the Clippers over the top. The close proximity of these two games only compounds the problems the Clippers displayed on Saturday -- they may go absolutely nuts on defense trying to pressure the ball tonight. Heck, even their coach hinted at it:

"We let them be too relaxed with the basketball and they made some easy plays," (LA Clippers Coach Mike Dunleavy, 2008 via ESPN.COM)

On the flipside, Brevin Knight sites the running game as the primary reason why a) it was easy for him to play well, and b) the lack of defensive pressure. (If you run, then the other team can't dig in on defense)

"If we can stay up-tempo it makes it a lot easier for me, and in the half-court the Coaches are doing a great job keeping me in plays that I know pretty well, and the guys are really working with me and hanging in with me." (Brevin Knight, 2008 via 1320 KFAN.COM)

If you combine the two you pretty much spell disaster a game that should have a lot more turn overs in it than 24 total. These are the types of road games that good teams win though . . . and with Boozer averaging 25 and 10, Memo averaging a double double, Ronnie Brewer scoring 16 ppg off of 58 fg% and Andrei coming off the bench to average 14 ppg, 8 rpg, 4 apg, 3 bpg and 2 spg the Jazz should win -- regardless of where the game is being played.

The game is tonight @ 10:30 pm EST time in LA -- for those that care. Go Jazz Go!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Things to look for this season: Carlos Boozer

Who has been an All-Star two years in a row for the Jazz? This guy has.

Boozer is in a special group -- no, I'm not talking about him being one of the very few people to average 20 and 10 over the last two seasons -- I'm talking about a productive player for the Utah Jazz that Jazz fans love to hate, and hate to love; yet the rest of the media and fans seem to think he's a pretty good player.

It's easy when you're a good player, and loved -- and thus any flaws in your game that you may or may not have are forgiven. Guys like John Stockton, Jeff Hornacek and Deron Williams fall neatly in this group.

It is also easy when you are a bad player, and hated -- and everyone knows that you are a "bad guy", or crappy. Guys like John Amaechi and lovable loser Greg Ostertag fit the bill.

There is this one other category, though, where fans don't really know what to make of them. They are very talented players . . . but somehow their flaws are not absolved like those of other players in higher regard. This group is filled with the Karl Malones and Carlos Boozers of the franchise. Take Malone for example . . . he's not loved all over the world, but no one doubts his abilities as a player. No one usually, except Jazz fans who are divided into thinking that he was "Awesome" or alternatively, "Not Awesome Enough". Stockton is a flawless God, while Malone is regarded as the guy who held him back in some circles. I find this ridiculous . . . because we've seen point guards on bad teams put up good numbers but not win shit (Andre Miller in Cleveland, for example) just like scorers on bad teams who put up good numbers and don't win (Like Carmelo Anthony in Denver). Stockton needed a guy who could put the ball in the basket, and Karl did that better than any other player in NBA history save for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

What does this have to do with Carlos Boozer? Well, for starters, Boozer is a high scoring power forward whose offensive contributions to our team wins games. His defense has been a shadow of what it was when he played in Cleveland though -- and more over, his contributions to the team as a whole, have been greatly reduced in some sort of NBA fan revisionism. Easily one can see that Carlos Boozer isn't perfect . . . but a lot of teams would still start him -- including our team. (Even if he isn't adored but all)

This looks to be a big year in the life of Carlos Boozer -- not only is it a make or break year for the team financially, but it's a year where he can opt out of his contract and demand a max salary. Does he deserve it? Probably not, but when teams are willing to pay Rashard Lewis $14.9 million dollars for less than 5.5 rpg (BTW, Lewis plays the 4 for Orlando apparently) one can imagine a guy who rebounds more than twice that amount per game would earn himself a considerably large contract. Double doubles pay the bills in the NBA. So what can we expect from C-Booz this year?

  1. Unless he gets a season ending injury, he's opting out: This is going to happen. Deron Williams even commented on it during the summer that it's purely a financial move by Boozer that he would do, if he was in his place. The only way that I see Booz not opting out is if he has a season ending injury that would limit his max asking price on the open market. Otherwise, he's going to have a contract year like no other in recent Utah Jazz history.
  2. He's going to score and rebound like crazy: We tend to focus on the negative as fans. Let's take a look at what Boozer has given us over the last two seasons: over 800 rebounds per season and over 1500 points per season. His career stats are 17 and 10, which is what Memo averaged for half a season, only in the games where he played over 35 mpg. It's hard to win the game if you don't have the ball. One of the most frequent ways a team gets the ball is through rebounds. Carlos rebounds. It's hard to win the game if you don't put the ball in the basket. Carlos has averaged 8.75 FGM and 3.5 FTM in the past two seasons, for a combined 21 points (at the very least average) every game. I can imagine that he's going to go a little nuts during a contract year and get something like 25 and 12 this season. It may be a lofty goal, but I can easily see him putting up the shots to get 25 for a season -- especially when money is on the line.
  3. Nothing increases the size of your next contract like winning: Yes, Boozer *may* be about the money (I don't know how true this is), and people everywhere doubt his sincerity . . . but if there is any season for him to be all about winning it is this season. If the Jazz get through the 2nd round it will be because of many reasons. One of the largest reasons would have to be Carlos Boozer, and a rediscovery of how to play interior defense. Yes, Boozer *can* play defense . . . we've seen how quickly he can move on offense, and his fundamentals . . . he used to block shots back in Cleveland in addition to being a good one on one post defender. Jerry Sloan has made it a point this season to stress defense, and you can see for yourself that Carlos is being more active on defense, and putting up more resistance to people scoring on him. For the Jazz it may mean the difference between 6 playoff wins and more than 8 playoff wins. For Carlos Boozer it may mean the difference between a big phat contract, and one that eclipses the Gross National Product of some developing nations.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Things to look for this season: Mehmet Okur

Memo is a man-mountain of offensive firepower. (not unlike the Janissary warriors of his Turkish heritage) He's a fantastic spot up shooter for a guy 6'11, and has legit range all over the court and is pretty clutch. He can play pick and pop, pick and roll, or even take his man off the dribble after a cute little pump fake. (Something he worked on all last season with Tyrone Corbin) Most people don't know that he's pretty good in the paint as well, heck, Memo routinely schools Amare Stoudemire when he posts up. After the All-Star break last season Memo averaged 17 and 10, and while a lot of NBA fans think that he's just a soft Euro because he has three point range may have failed to notice his absolutely insane rebounding numbers down the stretch. [15 games of 13 or more boards, 6 games of 16 or more, a season high 19 against the Lakers in the playoffs]

Memo is a bad ass He nails threes . . . . . . and has an under-rated floor game.
All photos by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images    

Okur was almost Dirk-like from February onwards, as he averaged a double double. Moreover, in games where Memo played in 35 minutes or more [he averages 33 mpg in the regular season] from February onwards he averaged 18.7 ppg and 11.2 rpg. If you further select only games where he plays a Dirk-like 38 mpg then his numbers balloon to 19.3 ppg and 12.1 rpg. You're a pretty good team if your 3rd option is giving you 19.3 and 12.1 when he plays big minutes. "Oh," you say, "these are only for the regular season." Well, In the playoffs he averaged 15.4 ppg and 11.8 rpg. [Up from 14.5 and 7.7 in the regular season] In the games where he only played 38 minutes or above (again, Dirk like numbers) he ends up getting 16.5 ppg, 13.1 rpg -- and 2 apg and 0.78 bpg to boot. If you ramp his stats up to just the games he played over 40 mpg those go to 2.8 apg and 1 bpg respectively if you were wondering. This may even prompt us to ask ourselves if we really do have a center problem when ours averages a double double and pulls down over 13 rebounds per game in the playoffs (in games where he gets star player minutes)?

I'm sorry, for whatever reason people (outside of Utah, Detroit and Turkey) have failed to recognize that Mehmet Okur is a serious bad-ass. Tyson Chandler has that rep, and he averaged 8 ppg and 10.3 rpg in the playoffs. If you forgot already, Okur averaged 15.4 and 11.8. Tyson blocks more shots [a whole 2/3rds of a block more when Memo plays big minutes -- but then Tyson's 8 ppg looks really bad against Memo's 17.2 ppg], but Memo actually makes his free throws and hits threes. If Okur gets better stats than Tyson, why is Tyson a bad-ass, and Memo is soft? There are many reasons, but this isn't the time to discuss racial provincialism in NBA fans. What is it time for is time to talk about what three things we should look for this season from Memo:

  1. We need him to start off 'Hot': This is especially true when we've got two rotation guys currently down (Deron Williams, Matt Harpring). Memo is a capable player, his stats from February on through the playoffs show this. He was an All-Star two seasons ago, and the Jazz are going to need him to start off 'Hot' this season, instead of allow him to sleep-walk for half the season, and then turn it on in a Shaq-like development. Thankfully he has come into camp in the best shape of his life and he's been getting praised for his added mobility by coaches and the media alike. This is potentially a contract year for him as well, and if he could be nominated for the All-Star game it would greatly improve his asking price. Memo is an All-Star level talent when he's on the floor for star minutes (35+ mpg) and is averaging 19 and 12.
  2. Needs to get to the line more: Did you know that one of our top scoring options and top free throw shooters (by percentage) only gets to the line 3.2 times a game, based on last year's statistics? That was remarkably low for him, as in his previous seasons he was going to the line 4.7, 5.5 and 4.8 times per game. The Jazz offense should put Memo in more situations where he draws fouls (maybe on those pump-fake drives of his, or dare I say it, more post up work). I think Memo needs to shoot between 5 and 6 free throws a game. Andrei went to the line 3.6 times per game and he never even has the ball in his hands on offense, what gives? Even Tyson Chandler went to the line more, at a whopping 3.7 FTA/game, not that he did much good there (59.3 ft%), but that's besides the point. Only Kyle Korver shot better from the line than Memo last season, we need to get our best FT shooters to the line more for easy points.
  3. Three point accuracy: It kind of begins and ends with Memo's three point shooting. Being a three point ace makes him a three point threat. Being a three point threat allows him to pump fake people closing out on him, which allows him to put the ball on the floor and drive. Driving allows him to get fouled more, and thus, go to the line more for freebies. Memo needs to shoot a high percentage from deep again this year, especially with Deron possibly being out for a few games we're a little week on outside shooting for the time being. Dirk was like this as well, but he just ended up shooting less and less threes every year and now people remember that he's a three point maker, but he doesn't actually make three pointers. Last season Dirk made 79 threes (up from 72 the season before), but only at the rate of 35.9 3pt%. Last season the Jazz had a few people who shot a higher percentage than Dirk did: Deron @ 39.5%, C.J. @ 39.0%,  Memo and Kyle both @ 38.8%, AK-47 @ 37.9%. I think that Memo's driving ability should make him take (potentially) less threes, but with the over-all result of making him take (shoot and make) a higher percentage of threes. I want to see him shoot above 40% from deep this season while still making more than 100 of them (last season he hit 114 threes, the season before he made 129) . I think that he can.