Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer 6th best Backcourt in NBA ?

There are some really good tandems out there in the NBA right now. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobili along with Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen obviously comprise championship caliber backcourts. Mike Bibby paired up with Joe Johnson causes all kinds of trouble for defenders – similarly Steve Nash and Jason Richardson can flat out make defenders look silly. Even hypothetically amazing backcourts will assemble this season, like in Portland with Andre Miller and Brandon Roy, and down in Orlando with Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter. These are all great backcourts in paper, but just where does Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer rank among them? Justin DeFeo, of Sir Charles in Charge, states that the Jazz tandem is clearly a Top 10 backcourt in the league – 6th specifically – and one where both players “compliment each other well,” (DeFeo, 2009, ¶13). He continues to say that:

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Williams is the do it all point guard and has the ball in his hands often, so he needs to be paired with a shooting guard who can do other things (defend, rebound) and create opportunities for himself without the ball (steals, loose balls, offensive rebounds) and thats (sic) the type of game Brewer has.

This is high praise, and I fully appreciate someone else noticing that while Deron isn’t a classic point guard, and Brewer surely is not a classic shooting guard (isn’t he just a SF who defends the other teams’ best perimeter scorer?), that together they are a pretty good team. Let’s go over some of the ways in which they do compliment each other:

Offense:

Deron dominates the ball on offense. Some teams have some sort of ball-sharing provision between the PG and the SG (like how Brandon Roy basically had to do everything himself in Portland). This has never been the case in Utah, not in Stockton’s time, and not now. Deron has a very solid handle on the ball and is able to maneuver himself into the lane with or without help from screens. Williams does this not with simple blinding speed, or a series of picks from teammates, he uses power and finesse to go from point A to point B, going over any and all terrain in the process. He has all the moves, and can get into the lane whenever he wants. (Essentially, he’s a swashbuckler with a basketball in his hands) He’s not just a PG who will bring the ball up the floor, hang out at the three point line, and pass the ball to someone to start a play. Deron’s penetration allows for defenders to shift their attention from the man they are guarding to Deron Williams (who is a scoring threat in the lane). This shifted attention allows for guys who move well without the ball to find open spots (often in their defender’s blindspots) and be in scoring position. If Deron Williams is daring swashbuckler who can move with a quickness and body control that belie his physique then Ronnie Brewer is the stealthy assassin who moves in the shadows, unaccounted for, with muscles tensed up for a finishing strike. It happens again, and again and again. Ideally, a drive and dish PG would be paired with a guy who had a reliable outside shot – but at best, a three pointer is a 40% success rate, while dunks are, generally speaking, much, much more effective.

Deron is a capable three point shooter – though his percentage has been a roller coaster his entire NBA career (42%, then 32%, then 40%, then 31%), and if he’s the only one of the two with an outside shot you can clearly see a deficiency in that department for this backcourt tandem. (By comparison, LA, Orlando, Atlanta and a few other teams on DeFeo’s list are replete with guys who can absolutely bomb from outside)

This group is just as adept in halfcourt sets as they are on the break. Utah produces a lot of deflections and Brewer starts as many breaks (with his natural quickness and 6’11 wingspan) as he is capable of finishing (with his 42” vertical). Deron hardly ever makes the wrong decision on who to pass to, and the two (naturally) hook up for Alley-Oops more frequently than any Utah tandem since Mark Jackson played here. Offensively, the two are nearly a match made in heaven.

Defense:

If Deron is the leader on Offense, Ronnie is the leader on Defense. Brewer starts the game off checking the other teams’ best scoring wing – regardless if he is a shooter or slasher or whatever. Ronnie gets the call until AK gets off the bench. If the last few playoffs are an indication – few players play better man defense (without fouling) on Kobe Bryant than Brewer does. In no way am I suggesting that Brewer shuts Kobe down, I’m just saying that he plays good man defense. Many times I’ve seen Kobe take shots that absolutely could not have been defended better without the aid of being allowed to do Bruce Bowen style fouling, and still make them over Ronnie. Kobe just makes amazing shots – and he’s had quite a few against Brewer. Brewer is more than just a speed bump on defense. His long arms, quickness and penchant for playing the passing lanes made him one of the league leaders in steals last season. He’s long enough, with good enough hops that I would expect him to get more ‘from behind’ LeBron style blocks this season though. While Brewer is a physical freak, his defensive instincts lead the way – and that’s usually towards pressuring the other team into making a mistake.

Deron does not get all the flashy steals that Brewer does, but he is quick enough on defense to stay with faster ball handlers, and just big and physical enough to discourage them from driving too much. (Just look at how the, honestly, best PG in the NBA, Chris Paul, is so taken out of his game whenever he plays Deron. CP3 owns everyone, and he is rightfully the best PG in the league right now. Deron is just the perfect storm on defense to give him trouble, and good enough on offense to tire him out there) If the first foundation for team defense is to slow down the other team’s ball handler / forward progression, then it’s obvious that Deron Williams is a very solid defender.

Together they comprise a physical, long defensive backcourt. Brewer is 6’7 with the previously mentioned 6’11 wingspan and the quickness of a man much smaller than he. Deron is a 6’3 point guard who was a wrestler in high school and deceptively quick. (check out his draft combine scores, you’ll be surprised) If anything, I think that they are better on defense than they are on offense!

What do the Stats Say:

I’m a stats junkie. So this is important to me. Also, I guess I’m debuting my new stats format. If you want to know about what some of these things are, you can always read my treatise on my own created stats. If you don’t want to, just wait for the analysis that will appear below.

Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer

First of all, for those of you following along at home, I have changed the GO Rating, and expect a new post about the New formula shortly. What you need to know about it is what these scores mean. The GO Rating incorporates all possible statistically tracked outcomes on offense, hence the full name of “Gestalt Offense”. The GO Rating is in light blue, all the things in the light blue cell background are my own invented stats. I think they better round out what you see. Anyway . . . what is a good GO Rating? I depends on what you are looking for. If you are a point guard it’s hard to be upset if you get a rating in the 130’s. Magic Johnson’s regular season career totals calculate to a GO Rating of 138.784. Allen Iverson’s GO Rating for the same category (career regular season stats) is 134.883. Deron gets 135.701 for his work last season – though shortened by injury, arguably his best season ever. As a further point of reference, Gary Payton’s career GO Rating is 88.882, that’s almost 50 points lower than Deron. Brewer’s rating is much lower, but that’s due to a few major factors. Firstly, wing players who do not take many shots (see shooting frequency, the higher the number the more time it takes to get a shot off) hardly ever do well. Scottie Pippen’s GO Rating for his career regular season stats stands at only 71.431. As solid as Pip was offensively, Brewer is nearly there in his 3rd season in the NBA. That’s not too shabby.

Again, the stats don’t lie when they show how poorly they are as a team when it comes to three point shooting. They make up for it with stellar eField Goal percentages (which I think are more important than just FG% and 3PT%). They both shoot better than average, when it comes to their shooting worth (average being 1.2). Offensively they are very competent getting to the line a combined 10 times a game and averaging over 30 points between the two, while dishing the ball with a good Assists to Turn over ratio. Offensively they put up quite solid stats, and I feel like they are even better defensively. Of course, defensive stats are pretty much useless, so take these with a grain of salt. (if you want more on that rant, read my treatise, linked above)

These guys don’t usually get called for fouls, so that’s pretty good. What is even better is that both of them come out on the positive side of their defensive gambling – Brewer especially makes very smart gambles on defense: effectively getting 2 steals for each fouls he commits. If he was to gamble defensively at that rate he would foul out with nearly 8 steals a game. (For those watching him closely know that he got 6 steals in a recent USA Select team scrimmage) Deron still manages over a steal per game as well, and his primary duty is to man up on his guy, and not actually go for steals. Neither of them block worth a damn – though Brewer should get more in my opinion. Both of their pure hustle ratings clearly fall below that of the Dream Team members, but exist within an acceptable range for starters in today’s NBA. These defensive statistics are not overwhelming – but I don’t put much stock in defensive stats at all. The best defense causes no effect on an individual’s boxscore; if you defend a guy so well that he takes shot he can’t make then you get nothing, except the satisfaction of playing good defense. These two guys are good defensive players – but Brewer gambles more and gets more steals – and it shows.

Conclusion:

Some statistics are worth more than others, and I’d put my money on the offensive ones actually relating to actually being good at playing. That said, Deron and Ronnie are a better defensive tandem than offensively, where their weaknesses are more exposed. (Weaknesses being that neither of them shot over 35% from three last year; as a unit they do not produce much from deep per game; they both do not jack up shots frequently (jacking up shots gives you a better Shooting Frequency and GO Rating for some reason); and so forth) Other guard tandems will score more points per game, and probably get to the free throw line more times per game. There will always be a better offensive tandem around. Collectively Ronnie and Deron make up a better defensive force, and have the talent and ability to get better (they are both closer to 20 than 30 – guys like Kobe, Fish, Vince, Nash, J-Kidd and others are getting up there and aren’t going to be as good in the next few seasons). They can be a Top 5 starting backcourt in the NBA, but they just aren’t quite there yet. I agree with DeFeo’s rankings and thank him for posting this in the first place!

P.S. Thanks to J.E.Skeets for the Ball Don’t Lie link directing me to DeFeo’s post!

USA Basketball scrimmage pictures! Woo!

Here are some of the (jazz related) pictures from the scrimmage featuring Kyle Korver, Paul Mil$ap and Ronnie Brewer (and coach Ty Corbin too!). All the pictures were photographed by Andrew D. Bernstien for NBAE/Getty Images.

	Here is the team picture (L to R): Bottom row is Paul Millsap; Top row is Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and Tyrone Corbin.
	Kyle is on offense, and at half court here. Great job Kyle!
	Here Millsap watches Anthony Randolph throw it down
	Kyle jokes with Thad Young and business casual friday guy.
	Here Kyle defends Ronnie Brewer, uh-oh, Kyle is on you . . . you better look to pass!
	Brewer and Millsap take a breather
	Durant talks while Brewer mentally constructs new ways to defend him
	What does this picture have to do with the Jazz? Oh yeah, Kyle is in it waaaay in the back. Great job Kyle! Keep it up!
	Brewer makes airspace to dunk on Durant
	Kevin Love dunks on Millsap
	Here the two are going for the same rebound . . . but obviously looking at two different things. I wonder who got the rebound . . .
	Brewer skies in for two more!
	Okay Amar, now really! What does this have to do with the Jazz? Ah yes, Korver is behind Westbrook (foreground) in the center of the picture, in stealth mode.
	And Tyrone is over near a cheerleader on the right hand side.
	It was business as usual after the game for Kyle, who seems to be moving into the Kevin Costner period of his career.
	Thad Young is trapped behind the basket and Millsap is looking for a pass -- ‘Sap, that pass isn’t going to come, Young is going to shoot this. It was that kind of camp for Millsap – it seems.
	Let’s finish this with some OJ going up and over some Korver defense! You can do it! Go JAZZ!

So . . . I was right about Ronnie Price

If you aren’t on twitter, then this is news: the Jazz are going to be bringing back Ronnie Price. (also confirmed by 1320 KFAN by txt message and via Twitter and the PR department of the Utah Jazz, via Twitter) Of course, this was a mere formality after Sloan was talking about Price in post draft interviews about Eric Maynor. But really, you didn’t need that either – you just needed to listen to me all along. So, last off-season the Jazz traded Hart for Knight, and by doing so, put themselves in a position where they would end up evaluating two guys for one spot all season long – with the final prize being a contract. I’m sure it must have been a crazy year for both Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight, playing against each other all season long fighting for playing time, both in the last year of expiring contracts.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008 (an excerpt)

Things to look for this season: Brevin Knight

Posted by Amar at 1:30 PM

“. . . More playing time at PG than Ronnie Price: That doesn't mean that Price isn't going to get playing time this season -- he may very well beat out Knight as the season goes on -- but over all Knight is going to get more playing time at the PG than Price will . . . ”

Thursday, October 16, 2008 (an excerpt)

Things to look for this season: Ronnie Price

Posted by Amar at 11:58 PM

“. . . If you haven't been following Ronnie Price's career, this is pretty much his own version of Sisyphus' challenge. His entire career he's had to make a living by beating other guys out for playing time. He did it two years ago in Sacramento (beating Jason Hart out). He did it last year in Utah (again beating Jason Hart out). And he's basically going to have to do it a 3rd year in a row, having to attempt to beat out Jason Hart the guy they traded Jason Hart for (Brevin Knight). Brevin also being in a contract year makes this even 'better', in terms of entertainment value. They are in direct competition with each other for this season -- and the next ones too! The only way to make things a little bit harder for Price would be if his coach decides 'just for fun' (in that exaggerated East Indian accent that Russell Peters has sometimes) to stop playing him at point guard -- and have him fight for playing time against 4 shooting guards (Brewer, Korver, Miles and Almond). Sounds dumb, right? Sounds even better from Jerry's own mouth [Interview, around the 1:54 to 4:13 mark, via 1320 KFAN]. For the record though, he does compliment Price as well during that answer, and suggests that his versatility allows him to play alongside Knight for a really small, quick line-up.

Basically, then, all Ronnie Price has to do is beat out Knight, and his future here in Utah will be secure, well it should be, right Mo Williams? Price has some advantages though, as he's been here last season, won the job, and played in every playoff game. Furthermore, he's a popular guy (in that younger crew with Millsap, Brewer and Miles) and the Jazz went 43-18 in games that he played in. That's winning 70.5 % of those games -- good enough for a 58 win season over 82 games. Here are three things to look out for this season from Ronnie Price:

 

Hustle every minute on the floor: Deron Williams plays so much point guard that there is very little time remaining for the other guys. There's going to be 8-12 minutes per game available by my estimation, and that's not nearly enough to play all three guys every game. What Price will do is hustle and play very hard in whatever time he has. Brevin Knight isn't going to jump up there and slam down alley-oops, or run back and block guys on fast breaks. Those are the types of plays that'll help get Price another contract with the Jazz -- especially if he plays within the offense and runs the team well.

 

Be available (and healthy) to play in 80+ games: Knight gets injured every year. He's never played over 80 games and whatever slim window of playing time exists has to be maximized by Price. Price needs to be available every game to go in and give Deron a breather. Especially in the cases where Knight is going to be injured and unavailable to play. It sounds simple, but it makes sense. One easy way to distinguish himself from his competition is be healthy. Coach is going to go with the guys on the roster who can play. Sometimes it doesn't have to be complicated. Knight averages 59 games played a season over his career. There is a window of opportunity for Price here, even if it's not wide open.

 

Eventually beat out Brevin Knight: I'm going to come out and say it -- there are going to be some situations all year where one of the two guys is going to get to play, and the other guy will sit. There will be situations where one guy is favored to play over the other (match-ups, etc). Also, there could be some times on the court where they both play at the same time. Out of all of those situations I think that the veteran leadership of Brevin Knight is going to be a stabilizing force for our team. I just can't bet against Ronnie Price. He's a smaller, scrappy guard who has three point range and has been in this situation before. Knight is smaller, scrappier, and much better than Jason Hart (the guy Price used to beat out each of those previous times), but I think Price has more fight in him. If Knight gets decked by Turiaf I see him on the floor for a while. Price got decked and was ready to fight. It's probably this fight that's going to win him the job sometime after the All-Star Break. . .”

Price eventually did win out, it appears, but thanks to Brevin Knight for being there. He was instrumental in our team starting the seasons on a 5-0 run, but just did not get it going after that. It’s a shame really, because I think we all expected more out of him. Alas, he’ll be looking to play somewhere else next season. Kevin O’Connor (GM): “Keeping Ronnie on our roster was important to us. He is someone who knows our system and has proven capable of stepping in whenever called upon. Over the last two seasons he has shown a commitment to working hard and improving his game, and as a result, we expect his growth to continue.” Randy Rigby (Utah Jazz President): “Ronnie Price is the consummate professional. He is always prepared when Coach Sloan calls on him and we are looking forward to his energy and toughness next season.” “The Utah Jazz announced today that the team has re-signed guard Ronnie Price.  Per team policy, terms of the deal were not released.” (The Utah Jazz, July 14, 2009) If you don’t recall, Price did not get a chance to play massive minutes in the playoffs this season, which is in stark contrast to last season’s playoffs. But in the time that he did play, he played with energy, hustle, fire and without fear. That’s the type of player I want on the court when we’re on the wrong side of an elimination game. And that’s exactly the type of player the Jazz have in Price.

Wooooo! One Year Old!

Happy Birthday AllThatJazz, you’ve been online clogging up the internets for one whole year now. Sure, you really fizzled down the stretch (like the Jazz), but you were really active in the off-season. Guess what? It’s the off-season again. Oh, the things you have seen in your first year of life . . .

• Fesenko had blond hair
• The Salt Lake City media couldn’t get enough of it
• Morris Almond was killing it in the summer league
• Deron got injured
• remember that game in Philly where no one was active to play, and we won?
• Boozer got injured
• eventually everyone got injured
• The team owner died
• Utah went from 1st in the division to 3rd
• we just squeaked into the playoffs and were unceremoniously ousted by the eventual champions, the Lakers
• somehow, over the course of the season, 5 new Jazz blogs came into being

And since then so many things have changed, this season the Jazz look to a new coach and general manager to right this ship, as Deron Williams will be looking to set up all new team mates in the quest for . . . wait what? REALLY? Okay, scratch that, the Jazz will go into this next season with, pretty much, the exact same team, coach and front office and expect better results. Memo, Boozer and Korver all opted into their final years of their contract. Two low draft picks were added, Millsap is a RFA and hopefully the Jazz are healthier next season.

So that much hasn’t changed from last year to this year . . . but let’s look at some blogging highlights from the past year! (and no, there are NOT all the blog posts I did all year long, jerks!)

• Why I decided to blog, and early concerns for saturation of Jazz blogs (July 14th, 2008)
• Explaining how awesome Stockton was/is. (July 15th, 2008 a; b; April 20th, 2009)
• Deron Williams signing for the long haul (July 19, 2008)
• The Brevin Knight/Jason Hart trade (July 23, 2008)
• Not-so-Jazzy Nicknames (Part 1: August 4th, 2008; Part 2: November 12th, 2008; Part 3: December 1st, 2009)
• The Making Guard (August 21st, 2008); On a wing and a prayer (April 11th, 2009)
• The NBA's next target: India. Why India? Why not? (August 27th, 2008)
• 10 Things other Point Guards do better than Deron Williams, and why. (August 28th, 2008)
• What if: The USSR played at the Olympics? (September 2nd, 2008)
• Adrian Dantley -- better late than never (September 7th, 2008)
• Hoops-pedia: Game of Destiny (September 9th, 2008)
• The Five Epic Errors of Jerry Eugene Sloan (September 11th, 2008); The Five Epic Qualities of Jerry Eugene Sloan (October 17th, 2008)
• Tangent Alert: sports figures ARE public figures (September 22nd, 2008)
• Mehmet Okur Evolution . . . (October 1st, 2008)
• YouTube Tuesdays! Mehmet Okur Interview Drinking Game (October 15th ,2008)
• Flashback Friday: Andrei back when he was AK-47 (October 24th, 2008)
• YouTube Tuesdays! We're Number Three! (October 28th, 2008)
• Utah Jazz 2008-2009 Season Preview! (October 29th, 2008)
• Flashback Friday- Some other young Jazz players that got better after their rookie seasons or how I stopped worrying and learned to love the Long Bomb (from Morris Almond) (October 31st, 2008)
• YouTube Tuesdays! Millsap owns Kaman (November 4th, 2008)
• Where in the world is Tadija Dragicevic and Ante Tomic? (November 6th, 2008)
• 10 Things Jazz fans should be thankful for (November 27th, 2008)
• Game 6 Recap- New York 107 - Utah 99 (December 13th, 2008) <---- super late game recap
• The King is dead. Love live the King! (February 21st, 2009)
• Walking Wounded (February 21st, 2009)
• To be honest with you Diane, I'm surprised (February 21st, 2009)
• Requisite Oscars/NBA cross over post (February 23rd, 2009)
• The Jedi Voodoo Mind Trick Hype Machine (February 25th, 2009)
• ESPN, and the fans who love to hate them (February 26th, 2009) <--- a must read
• Flashback Friday- WE'RE GOING STREAKING! (March 6th, 2009)
• Contract years, Developing Talent & Front Office Subterfuge (March 6th, 2009)
• Carlos Boozer to English Dictionary -- Episode 1 (March 9th, 2009)
• Rational Jazz Blogger Roundtable 1- Playoffs, Player evaluations & Jazz fan reputations (March 10th, 2009)
• How bad are the Jazz on the road, really- (March 25th, 2009)
• . . . Of Mice and Millsap (March 26th, 2009)
• 2008-2009 Regular Season- What the heck happened- (April 11th, 2009)
• Home (aka SLC) is where the wins are (April 11th, 2009)
• Finishing weak (April 12th, 2009)
• Searching for that PPF- Perfect Power Forward (April 13th, 2009)
• You have got to be kidding me – Jeff Hornacek Mix!!! (April 20th, 2009)
• Round 1, Game 3 Postmortem- Luck (April 24th, 2009) <—Luck off, Lakers fans
• Utah Jazz 2008-2009 Season in Review (Part 1)- The Season that was (May 17th, 2009)
• Who else is sick with the Great Hype surrounding Andrew “Bust”num- (May 18th, 2009)

Hopefully this next season is better for the Jazz *and* All That Jazz (and no, I don’t mean the section of the Utah Jazz Official Website that stole my name, and is featured at the bottom of their page, seriously, that’s a total rip off job) as well. I learned a lot in this last year, and hope to use it by continuing to blog! (Be it here, or elsewhere in some other place)

Dollar$ and Cent$: Just say 'No' to the 2009 NBA Draft

First of all, if you are a Pete Maravich/Ricky Rubio fan, then you don't need to worry about this draft. Secondly, if you are the Utah Jazz, you don't want nothing to do with this one either, but for an entirely different reason: money. Money is a huge big deal in the NBA -- and in more than that art imitates life type of way. People want to get paid. (Even if they don't deserve it) Utah -- when healthy -- is a pretty nice team. In order to keep this team together the Jazz Brass (particularly Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor) is going to have to get new team owner Greg Miller to open the, how do you say, "cheque book". The salary situation is bananas. (but not in the "it changes every day" type of way) Just take a look for yourself. This off season the Jazz may have to ink new deals for Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Paul Millsap, Jarron Collins and Kyrylo Fesenko -- essentially all the bigmen on the roster except for Andrei Kirilenko and current rookie Kosta Koufos.

Boozer	Okur	Millsap	Fesenko	Collins
$12.7 mill next year, looking for more according to interview he gave weeks ago to ESPN	$9 mill next year, looking for more (according to Turkish media)	Making less than $800k, Restricted Free Agent will be offered 10x that on the market at least	Team option for less than $900k	Somehow making $2 mill this year

That's not all the free agents though, as the Jazz will need to figure out what they are doing with their point guard situation (both back-ups, Brevin Knight and Ronnie Price, have expiring contracts) and that Morris Almond guy . . . well, it's a damn shame what happened to that guy. The year after that (i.e. the Off-Season of 2010) there needs to be some money for Ronnie Brewer (who's qualifying offer is going to be at a hair under $4 million per season), Matt Harpring (who, for whatever reason, we are incapable of getting rid of) and anyone else who didn't get taken care of this off-season.

The 'best' thing is to find out which guys we really want, and develop a strategy to keep them. Out of all of those names the most important free agents (right now) are Boozer, Okur, Millsap, Brewer and Knight. Championship teams do not depend on the services of guys like Jarron Collins, or Ronnie Price. Brewer does not need a new deal until next season. Mehmet Okur has not made any waves about opting out, unlike Boozer, so both of them 'could' still be on the books for the next year. (At the rate of $9 million and $12.7 million respectively) If all three are on the books then we only really need to worry about Knight and Millsap. The back-up PG situation can be handled with part of the exception. (I could be wrong, as I'm not a cap-ologist) The rest of the money can be used on Millsap. (What money? Where is this money coming from? The Jazz are already over the cap . . . there IS no more money!) The closer to reality we get (and hence, the closer to actually dealing with the cap) the closer we get to recognizing that this situation sucks.

There just isn't enough money to go around. If you bare bones it, have Boozer opt out (and not be resigned by the Jazz), let Collins and Price walk, jettison Fesenko with the team option on his contract -- then you'll have enough money to go around for Millsap, Okur, Brewer and Knight over the next two season . . . but only have 9 players on the roster. You're not allowed to have only 9 players on your roster. The Jazz will have to pick up a few low cost scrubs in order to fill out the roster -- not a bad move, but still, there's no guarantee that Boozer will opt out now (even though he said that he would), and secondly, the Jazz may not (for whatever reason) get rid of Collins, Price *or* Fesenko. Under Larry H. Miller, R.I.P., the Jazz were a small town family more than they were a business. Guys like Harpring and Collins had expiring contracts a few seasons ago, and they were given (back then) seriously over priced golden handshake deals. It should have ended there, but I don't know if it really will. So, okay, let's scratch that idea of the Jazz actually going to 'not' sign company men. I really do not have a great solution to the Jazz financial situation, but, I do know where some money can be saved: the 2009 NBA Draft.

Right now the Jazz are not going to go over the hump with a late 1st round pick and a late 2nd round pick. Especially not from this upcoming draft. The last thing the Jazz need is to use money on a guaranteed contract that'll eat up some of the money that would be better served being spent on the likes of Millsap or Brevin Knight. Luckily, the Jazz are in just the position to get rid of their draft picks this year. We owe Philly a 1st round pick (from the Korver trade), and Philly owes Minnesota a 1st round pick (Rodney Carney trade). If the Jazz pick lower than 22nd in this year, Minnesota will get our pick. That helps out everyone involved, especially the Jazz. The hard part, though, is getting a good enough record to finish the season with so that we are picking at 22 or lower. The Jazz will need to finish with one of the top 9 records in the league when all is said and done. Where are we today? Sitting at #10, percentage points behind New Orleans. If Utah can leapfrog New Orleans, Portland and Houston we'll be in the clear -- while keeping Dallas, Atlanta and Phoenix behind us in the standings. Sounds very plausible, and while I'd love to give up on a very late 1st round draft pick and save money, I don't know how possible this is going to end up being. The longer we hold onto the pick that we owe Philly -- that they'll give to Minnesota -- the better the pick can possibly get (going upwards from #22 to getting near the lotto if we hold it till 2013). Better to get rid of it sooner, rather than later.

The 2nd round pick is an entirely different animal, as the Jazz may be willing to keep it in plans of a draft and stash with another International (most likely European) player. This way the money for that guy is not on the books, but we still keep the rights to him. We're currently doing this with International Men of Mystery Tadija Dragicevic and Ante Tomic. As far as I am concerned, we have enough European bigmen to last a few seasons. I don't think that European swingmen are the answer to our problems. Nor do I think that our future back-up PG is going to be a European point guard. Sure, we could draft and stash *any* International player, but I don't know how great our scouting of South America is. (If we're not getting a Euro, he'll be from the Americas somewhere -- don't see us drafting an Asian or African player -- I really don't think we're actively scouting those parts of the world) The answer here, again, appears to be giving our pick to Philly, as we still owe them future considerations in the 2nd round because of the Fesenko-Hill trade a few years back.

We skip the draft this season, focus on the players we have, and save some money right now. I think that's not a bad idea at all. Plus, then the next year's draft (2010), we'll have plenty of picks that we can use as assets for trades, or well, you know, draft picks. We may have a few holes to fill two off-seasons from now. We'll have two 1st round picks (our own, hopefully a low pick; and the Knicks unprotected, possibly lotto, pick). I'm sure both of those picks could be traded to a bad team if we wanted to move up in the draft . . . I dunno . . . if we actually find someone that we'd like to add to the team.

In completely unrelated news, doesn't this kid look like Fesenko's younger brother? This guy is Donatas Motiejunas, a Lithuanian center that projects to be a lotto pick in the 1st round of the 2010 NBA Draft. I don't know much about the kid, but I do know that unless he's the reincarnation of Wilt, I don't want the Jazz to ever get close to drafting this guy. We have enough young center prospects that we're not developing already.

A little early but . . . NBADraft.net's 2010 Top 10

This is really premature, but as Jazz fans, we all know why we should be keeping an eye on this . . . Well, here is nbadraft.net's mock draft for 2010:

1. John Wall, 6'4 PG
2. Ricky Rubio, 6'4, PG
3. Xavier Henry, 6'6, SG
4. Jrue Holiday, 6'4, PG/SG
5. Derrick Favors, 6'9, PF
6. Gani Lawal, 6'9, PF
7. Austin Daye, 6'10, SF
8. Donatas Motiejunas, 7'1, PF
9. Davin Ebanks, 6'8, SF
10. Scotty Hopson, 6'6, SG

I'm pretty sure that David Stern would do whatever it takes to make sure that we don't get Ricky Rubio, even though he's a dead ringer for a former Jazz player that we may all know . . . Who knows if any of those 10 guys will be true Lotto picks (i.e. the top 14 picked each year), or even if the Knicks will be in the lotto by then? (Thanks, guys . . . ) Even more surprising would be to guess what the Jazz would need in 2010.

There's just so much up in the air that will "eventually" sort itself out after next off-season. (God willing) So it'll be much easier to forecast a drafting direction for future years after that's all taken care of. I do know that if Price and Knight get short contracts from the Jazz this following off-season that the Jazz may be in need of a PG to help Deron out time to time.

By 2010 if our shooting guard situation still necessitates the drafting of young SGs then our current crop of 3 young guys (CJ, Ronnie B and Mobe) must not have panned out. Even more startling would be if one of our three recent centers all end up as duds (Fesenko, Koufos and Tomic). I'm guessing we'll either be on the look out for a PF -- we can't honestly expect to have Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Millsap all on the roster by then, and will need to reload at the 4 for sure.

Though . . . it would be fun to see Ricky as a rookie playing with our 2nd unit throwing oops to Andrei, and making crazy passes to Korver . . .

Things to look for this season: Paul Millsap

Essentially, what the Jazz brass end up doing with Boozer the next summer will -- on some level -- be dependent upon what Paul Millsap does this season. Either he's a potential starter at power forward who can be counted on to get a double double, or he's a glorified energy player who cannot sustain his level of play for 30+ mpg. I think that what we know of him suggests that he is either one of those people, and not a combination of the two.

Here is what he gets done when he plays 27+ mpg (according to 2007-2008 seasons stats including playoffs): 16 points (6/10, 4/6 ft), 10 rebounds (3 off), 1 block, 1 steal @ GSW on Oct 30th, 2007 24 points (7/8, 10/13 ft), 5 rebounds (2 off), 1 assist, 1 block, 5 steals vs. CLE on Nov 7th, 2007 20 points (10/14, 0/2 ft), 9 rebounds (2 off), 1 steal vs. LAL on Nov 30th, 2007 20 points (7/14, 6/9 ft), 13 rebounds (6 off), 3 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals @ PHX on Dec 12, 2007 7 points (3/8, 1/1 ft), 5 rebounds (1 off), 3 blocks, 4 steals vs. SEA on Dec 15, 2007 28 points (11/15, 6/10 ft), 7 rebounds (3 off), 1 steal @ ORL on Dec 21, 2007 14 points (7/10), 6 rebounds (4 off), 2 assists, 2 steals vs. POR on Dec 31, 2007 16 points (6/9, 4/5 ft), 10 rebounds (3 off), 4 assists, 2 blocks, 3 steals vs. DEN on Mar 08, 2008 13 points (4/7, 5/7 ft), 6 rebounds (5 off), 3 assists, 2 blocks, 3 steals vs. LAC on Mar 28, 2008 15 points (6/8, 3/4 ft), 7 rebounds (2 off), 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal @ MIN on Mar 30, 2008 4 points (2/5), 6 rebounds (2 off), 3 assists, 2 steals vs. WASH on Mar 31, 2008 17 points (7/13, 3/4 ft), 10 rebounds (6 off), 1 assist, 1 steal @ LAL on May 7th, 2008 during playoffs

So, in 12 games where Paul has played more than 27 mpg he averages: 16.2 ppg (62.8 fg%, over 6 fta/game @ 68.9 ft%); 7.8 rpg (3.3 off); 2.4 apg, 2.2 spg, 1.9 bpg. That really is not too shabby for under 30 mpg of work. Especially not for a 2nd year NBA player who still doesn't get the respect from the refs on defense. In his rookie season he played 18 mpg and had 6.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg and just around 1 apg, 1 spg and 1 bpg. In his soph season he upped his mpg to 20, and boosted his stats to 8.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and similarly around 1 apg, 1 spg and 1 bpg. He is not going to be a great contributor, or even want to stay in Utah, if he continues to play less than half the game. And clearly, it's not like he is an inefficient player by any means, as he has a career fg% that's easily above 50% and when he plays heavy minutes his FG% averages out to be an insane 62.8 fg% (see above). Dude needs the minutes, especially in this pivotal year where the Jazz may have to make a decision about Millsap or overpaying Carlos Boozer. That said, what are the three key things that we have to look out for this season from Paul Millsap?

1. Season averages of 25-28 mpg: Really, this should be a given, and don't tell me that there isn't enough time to go around, I've been playing with time and rotations for part of the summer, and I know there is. (Even if that means that Carlos Boozer gets some playing time as the back-up center) 12 games is only 15% of the entire season, but I think that the foul situation provided, he can be a key performer when playing more than half the game.
2. Meeting Statistical Benchmarks: This part is easy to understand . . . there will be more confidence in his game over the season by the coaching staff and brass if he can meet certain statistical benchmarks. I know that they must have some for him, and I do not know what they are, so here are mine:
1. 5 different games of at least 20 points;
2. 3 different games of 10 FTA;
3. 45 games total of at least a combined 1 block and 2 steals, or 2 blocks and 1 steal;
4. 3 3PTM
5. At least 240 minutes of 4th quarter action
3. Use quickness on offense more: He's a beast of an offensive rebounder due to his quickness, and he makes good cuts and gets open for dunks because of it . . . however, he needs to be able to use his relative quickness (compared to other PFs out there) when he gets the ball on one-on-one moves. He has solid ball handling for a big guy (he's no Odom or Kirilenko, but he's no Larry Nance either), and he has a rudimentary cross over and can do significant damage when he faces up his opponent. I'd like to see him get the ball at the high post, face up his man, and drive on him -- ultimately resulting in him getting to the FT line a bit more.

News Headlines - The calm before the storm

Can you believe that it's almost October? Really? We're less than half a month away and more and more NBA news will be coming in the near future. [point of reference: us bloggers have lamented how boring the Month of August was, imagine how bereft of information it will be in those non-Olympic years!] Anyway, here is a quick rundown of some Jazz related stories:

* The Dominator is ubiquitous -- Deron Williams is "The Man" of this team, and lives in SLC full time, and as a result, he's been busy there full time giving back to the community, read about in the Desert Morning News! "When Williams first appeared in Utah, he was confident but guarded. Charles Barkley he wasn't. But as time passed, he became increasingly willing to show his humor. Sometimes it's simply a glint in his eye or a short one-liner. For those he trusts, he's engaging and cooperative, the proverbial good guy. Which raises the obvious question: What's in it for him? Is this some kind of radical publicity blitz? Probably not, since he had already signed his contract extension before most of this happened. "We didn't just sit down and say, 'Deron, we've got to come up with a major media crash course,' like we're promoting a movie," said Wright. "It's not like that. People were calling and saying, 'Can you go here?' And a lot of it, if it fit into his schedule, we did." Wright says Williams also did it because he understands he's the Jazz's guy. His team, his town, his responsibility. Which is quite unusual. The team has three players who have been All-Stars (Boozer, Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur), yet the most popular, and the unchallenged leader, is Williams." (Brad Rock, 2008, Deseret News)

 

* Steve Luhm (of the Salt Lake Tribune) talks about the 2010 Draft pick that we own, and how the improvement of the New York Knicks may reduce what looked like a for sure lock at a Top 5 pick in that draft. "The Knicks weren't going anywhere under Isiah Thomas and the Jazz's chances of being in the top five or top 10 of the 2010 draft with the pick previously acquired from New York would have improved had he stayed in charge. The hiring of Donnie Walsh as team president and Mike D'Antoni as coach is first step toward respectability for the Knicks, which is not good news for the Jazz. Walsh's track record and reputation are impeccable. He's one of the best in the business and was the perfect choice to direct the reconstruction in New York. D'Antoni? I've known him since he was hired as Denver's director of player personnel in 1997. During the lockout-shortened 1999 season, D'Antoni inherited the impossible job of head coach and guided the Nuggets to a 14-36 record. He was not retained, but got a second chance to be an NBA head coach in Phoenix, starting early in the 2003-04 season. Everybody who follows the NBA knows what kind of job D'Antoni did with the Suns." (Luhm, 2008, Salt Lake Tribune)

 

* AK back to Russia, for reals this time, people! -- People love to jump to unreasonable conclusions, as a story grows exponentially with each blog that links to it, and gives their take -- I read this blog post from "The Hoop" from a variety of sources (ballhype and dimemag) today, and Dime even goes the distance to suggest that solving the financial burden in Utah is as easy as shipping AK off to CSKA Moscow (reading jazzfanz much?)-- because of their "reported" interest in him. Didn't they have 'reported' interest in Ben Gordon too? How did that work out? The Hoop reports from somewhere else (krepsinis.net?) that this can be a done deal, and that it may have some weight because Andrei hasn't renewed his contract with the Utah Jazz yet. First of all, it's good to check your sources.

There are a few places on the net that show these financial facts quite easily . . . Andrei is under contract for three more seasons @ $15 million, $16.5 million and $17.8 million. So not only is AK not able to renew his contract (as it's not expiring), but this means that CSKA would have to buy out his contract from the Jazz (much like how when NBA teams have to buy out contracts from big dogs across the pond, it works both ways guys). This guy (Anthony) said it best:

"I mean, CSKA's got money, but I don't know if they have 3 years/50 mil of buyout money to go along with a similar sized contract. His wife has a shop in Salt Lake, he's good friends with the other Eastern European dudes on the team, and he has one of the best point guards in the league (and if Boozer bolts he'd become his preferred target). Something tells me that this won't happen.

Scratch that, everything tells me that this won't happen."  (comment from The Hoop article, 2008)

 

* Training camp Tid-bits -- It basically starts on September 29th with media day (yes, we'll get to find out what hair color Fesenko currently has, or if Kover finally got that 'Thugg Life' tattoo he kept suggesting that he'd get over the summer), then they're off to Boise from September 30th to October 3rd. (Mark your calendar, Masha!)

When this happens each year I think of Jerry Sloan telling all the players that for that point in time that he's going to be their daddies, and that he forces integration by having unlikely pals to room mate together -- like, a few seasons ago we may have had Greg Ostertag sharing a room with DeShawn Stevenson. Okay, sure, my entire concept of Jazz training camp is like that sequence from "Remember the Titans".

Just fast-forward to the 3:30 mark if you don't want to watch all of this, the best part (the part I'm talking about) starts at 6:30 . . .anyway . . . the first pre-season game is against the Lakers on October 7th in Anaheim. Woo!

 

* Trickle down economics means that during an energy crisis air travel is more expensive . . . duh. Thanks for showing up Jasen Lee.