Forward March!

The Utah Jazz finished February with their best record in franchise history: 10-1. It was a spectacular month filled with victories over the likes of the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, New Orleans Hornets and playoff teams from both conferences. As good as February was, January was a travesty where the Jazz limped to a 7-8 record. There are only 23 games left in the regular schedule -- and only 23 games left for the Jazz to make any solid moves up in the standings. March sees the Jazz playing in 15 games, and April has the Jazz playing in 8 regular season games. They are on the road 14 times, and at home only 9 times.

The major problem I can see, when looking over the schedule, is that fatigue is really going to set in late. Hopefully this is the case with all of the teams in the running for the playoffs -- but the Jazz have a particularly tough task. First of all, there's another extended Eastern Conference road trip that needs to happen, one that will span 8 days, and have the Jazz playing 5 times. (we already know how poor the Jazz are on the road, and how poor they are against the East . . .) The Jazz will face off against Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta, Miami and Orlando. The games against Atlanta and Orlando are both the 2nd night of back to back sets; furthermore, the game against Atlanta would be the 3rd game in 4 nights. If the Jazz win three out of those five games I'll be bouncing off the walls.

The second, and perhaps larger, problem is the cumulative effect of all of these games. The Jazz play 8 back to back sets still. (15 of our last 23 games are either the first or second game of a back to back set, or 70%) If that was not enough, 9 of these last 23 games will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Jazz. (@ Atlanta, vs. Washington, @ Portland, @ Denver, vs. Minnesota, @ New Orleans, vs. Golden State, vs. LA Clippers, @ LA Lakers) Do any of those look like important games to win? I see a few there.

The largest obstacle will be around the end of March and the beginning of April where the Jazz will play Houston at home, then the next night fly to Phoenix to take on the Suns. Two days later the Jazz face the Suns at home. I don't know the exact injury situation with Phoenix, but as far as I can tell, they will either be in full tank mode, or swing for the fences mode. The next week the Jazz will face the Knicks at home, then fly the next night to play the Blazers -- one of the previously mentioned 3rd game in 4 nights sets. This will be the last game of March, and it goes all downhill from there. The Jazz then fly over to Denver to play the first game of a back to back set, which is also the 3rd game in 4 nights, and yes, the 5th game in 6 nights. How often do you get the 5th game in 7 nights? Very rarely, but only when you play a game the very next night, at home against Minnesota, that's the second night of a back to back, and ultimately, the 6th game in 7 nights. Yes, this is how the Jazz start off April -- playing 6 times in a week, with one of our last remaining 'gimmie' games at home against a non-playoff team being scheduled at the worst possible time. [EDIT: This is incorrect, the Jazz game vs. the Timberwolves will be the 5th game in 7 nights, not 6th in 7]

To add insult to injury, the Jazz play again, on the road in New Orleans on that Sunday, a single game that does not look too hard, but will be the 3rd game in 4 nights, and the 4th game in 6 games, 5th game in 7. The Jazz will have a needed two day rest, and then finish the last 5 games of the seasons @ Dallas, @ San Antonio, vs. Golden State (2nd game in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights), vs. the LA Clippers (3rd game in 4 nights), and then on the road to face the LA Lakers (2nd night in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights).

I really pray that this is the case for all teams right now, and that everyone will be equally tired to finish the season. The Jazz play against a Top 10 team in the Western Conference 13 times (out of 15 remaining Western Conference games) to finish the season. The Jazz are shaky on the road . . . hopefully Boozer will be full of energy from that mid-season holiday he took.

Just because I am insane, here it all is in chart form:

	Game	Opponent	Location	Date	Conf.	Playoff Team	Part of B2B Set?	Other:
March	1	Golden State	Road	March 1	West		2nd game
	2	Houston	Home	March 4	West	Yes		Season series 0-2
	3	Denver	Home	March 6	West	Yes		Season series 1-1
	4	Toronto	Road	March 8	East
	5	Indiana	Road	March 10	East		1st game
	6	Atlanta	Road	March 11	East	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
	7	Miami	Road	March 14	East	Yes	1st game
	8	Orlando	Road	March 15	East	Yes	2nd game
	9	Washington	Home	March 17	East			3rd game in 4
	10	Oklahoma City	Road	March 20	West
	11	Houston	Home	March 24	West	Yes	1st game
	12	Phoenix	Road	March 25	West	?	2nd game	Season series 1-1
	13	Phoenix	Home	March 28	West	?
	14	New York	Home	March 30	East		1st game	Last game vs. East until Finals
	15	Portland	Road	March 31	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
April	16	Denver	Road	April 2	West	Yes	1st game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 6
	17	Minnesota	Home	April 3	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5 5th game in 7
	18	New Orleans	Road	April 5	West	Yes		3rd game in 4 4th game in 6 5th game in 7
	19	Dallas	Road	April 8	West	Yes
	20	San Antonio	Road	April 10	West	Yes	1st game
	21	Golden State	Home	April 11	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4
	22	LA Clippers	Home	April 13	West		1st game	3rd game in 4
	23	LA Lakers	Road	April 14	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5

The Jazz are currently sitting at 36-23, and need 14 games to win 50 for the season. ESPN.com predicted that the Jazz would win 51 games -- a number that I thought was ridiculously low back in Pre-Season. I was so bold as to suggest that the Jazz would finish the season (including playoffs) with 65 wins this year. The last two seasons the Jazz won 60 games total (2006-2007: 51 regular season, 9 playoffs; 2007-2008: 54 regular season, 6 playoffs) -- so I felt like a 5 game improvement wouldn't be that far out of the realm of possibility. For my statement to be true (65 wins), and let's assume the Jazz win 6 playoff games (2nd round exit) the Jazz will need to win each of these last 23 games. As much as that would be awesome, I just don't see it happening. (In my defense, though, I could not know that the Jazz would miss over 150 man games to injury this year)

Instead of doing the whole 'poke holes into my ability to gauge how well my team can win games' game, let's move forward . . . into March. The Jazz have momentum right now, having won 7 games straight, 9 in a row at home, and 10 of their last 11. They need to keep it going, or else they may end up facing San Antonio or the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. I'd take the Jazz' chances in the first round against any of the other teams in the West (Denver, Houston, Portland, New Orleans, Dallas, Phoenix), even without home court. The Playoff Push all starts tonight on the road to the Golden State Warriors -- who killed us last time we played them.

Utah Jazz 2008-2009 Playing time and Rotation:

One of the greatest strengths for the Utah Jazz this season is the versatility of the roster. Even Jerry Sloan has seen it and he's fiddled with a variety of line-ups, everything from the very small (5'10 Brevin Knight, 6'1 Ronnie Price and 6'5 C.J. Miles as the 1, 2 and 3) to the very large (6'8 Paul Millsap at small forward, 7'1 Kosta Koufos at the four, and 7'1 Kyrylo Fesenko in the middle). In all only two players out of our total 15 man roster are an exclusivists in that they only play one position. Brevin Knight is a pure point guard who does not have the offensive range, or size to play shooting guard. Similarly, Kyrylo Fesenko is too big to play power forward, and he would be a liability on defense trying to guard people like Amare and David West one on one. Everyone else can play at least two spots -- and as a result, gives Jerry Sloan and the rest of the Jazz Brass a lot of chances to fiddle away. Here's a visual representation of the five different positions, and the guys who could conceivably play there during the course of any given game:

Point Guard	Shooting Guard	Small Forward	Power Forward	Center
Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer	Andrei Kirilenko	Carlos Boozer	Mehmet Okur
Ronnie Price	Kyle Korver	Matt Harpring	Paul Millsap	Jarron Collins
Brevin Knight	C.J. Miles	C.J. Miles	Andrei Kirilenko	Kyrylo Fesenko
Andrei Kirilenko	Morris Almond	Kyle Kover	Mehmet Okur	Kosta Koufos
C.J. Miles	Andrei Kirilenko	Morris Almond	Kosta Koufos	Carlos Boozer
	Deron Williams	Paul Millsap
	Ronnie Price
	Matt Harpring

Unfortunately, the game is only 48 minutes long, and you can only play a maximum of 12 total guys in any given game. You would think, then, that there is a maximum total of 48 minutes available for each position, and thus -- 240 minutes per game to dish out. The math makes sense so far but gets more complicated when you look at the actual MPG from the team last season. Basically, the math does not add up. This is because not every player plays in every game. For example there are 48 minutes to give out at center . . . and last year our centers averaged 33.2 mpg (Okur), 10.0 mpg (Collins), and 7.8 mpg (Fesenko). That adds up to 51 minutes, which is 3 minutes over. Further muddying the waters is that Carlos played some five last season as well. As you can see, trying to reverse engineer a playing time chart based on the MPG played last season is not as easy as one would have previously thought.

I first tried to construct a playing time chart based upon the 240 minutes total theory, but that basically would result in some very upset players (we can't reasonably expect to give Matt Harpring DNP's all season long). Last season if you added up all of the MPG averages for all players (making up for Brevin Knight by using Jason Hart's time) the total was 277.9 mpg. That 37.9 extra mpg makes up for how some players do not play in every game, and how other players end up getting injured and so forth. However, that was for a total roster of 14 people -- and this season we have a full 15 man roster. In order to get what the new total should be I found the average playing time of what we had previously (278/14) and added that to 278. Thus, when I constructed my playing time chart I made it out of a total 298 minutes, and not 240. What do I end up with? (All the MPG for last season was rounded up or down accordingly)

	2007-2008 MPG	Proposed 2008-2009 MPG	+ / -	Justification?
Point Guard
D. Williams	37	37	0	He doesn't need to play any more or any less, though our depth allows for him to play less this season.
R. Price	10	10	0	Price will play in more games this season than Knight, and this, will average less MPG as his mins will fluctuate.
B. Knight	23	10.5	-12.5	Knight will be playing nearly 13 mpg less than he did last season with the LA Clippers, and he will be playing in less games as the 3rd string PG. However, the games he will be playing in will be games where he plays more mpg as they will be games where Deron is out of.
Shooting Guard
R. Brewer	28	29	+1	Brewer needs more playing time, but it's hard to get more.
K. Korver	22	21	-1	Kyle is playing great right now, but for us to be a really good team, he may have to just play better with less time, as we need defense.
M. Almond	4	9	+6	Almond is going to spend most of the season with the Flash again, and not see significant burn during the season. That said, he's going to play more MPG in the NBA this year.
Small Forward
C.J. Miles	12	16	+4	C.J. is starting for now, and needs to make the best of his time on the floor -- lest others take it from him.
Andrei Kirilenko	31	37	+6	I have my reasons, you can read about them here if you wish.
Matt Harpring	18	13.5	-4.5	This is justified by his MPG trends over the last 4 seasons compounded by his cumulative injury history.
Power Forward
Carlos Boozer	35	35	0	Boozer seems to do well in this amount of playing time, though in a contract year he may want more, though . . .
Paul Millsap	21	23	+2	. . . Paul Millsap is also in a contract year. There are only so many minutes to go around at the PF, so expect Boozer to be the back-up Center for us this season.
Center
Mehmet Okur	33	35	+2	Memo plays better when he plays more, need empirical proof? Read this take.
Jarron Collins	10	6	-4	Collins needs zero MPG, but it's not going to happen. Too bad!
Kyrylo Fesenko	8	11	+3	The only way that he's going to be the defensive big that we need is if he gets some time actually playing against guys like Bynum, Dwight, Yao and Oden. Nearly a quarter of every game he plays in should feature him getting said experience.
Kosta Koufos	n/a	5	+5	His job this year will be to play well in Orem, playing more MPG than Almond did in the NBA as a rookie will just be the icing on top.

This does cause some problems when trying to understand how any random, given game will go. The way I look at it, a random game somewhere after the all-star break will feature Morris Almond (Flash), Kosta Koufos (Flash) and CJ Miles on the IR. Harpring will be back, and playing minutes for us (you know, because he's Matt Harpring). So this is how I could reasonably accept the playing time to be divided:

PG		SG		SF		PF		C
D. Williams	37	R. Brewer	29	A. Kirilenko	35	C. Boozer	25	M. Okur	35
R. Price	7	K. Korver	19	M. Harpring	10	P. Millsap	21	C. Boozer	10
B. Knight	4			K. Korver	3	A. Kirilenko	2	K. Fesenko	3
Totals	48		48		48		48		48

Sure, this is playing 11 guys like Jarron Collins gets the DNP-CD . . . but I can see Price picking up two fouls in the 1st half making Knight need to get off the bench. Similarly, Okur could sit at the end of the first half letting Fes get some burn. I think it is important to stress that Jerry Sloan will like to keep 3 PGs on the active roster for as many games as he can. Back when the Jazz only used to keep 12 people on the roster there were always three PGs signed. (Yeah, like back in the Stockton, Farmer, Les days when current Memphis Coach Mark Iavaroni used to start for the Jazz) Also, I think Sloan wants to have at least 5 bigs: three of which will be Boozer, Okur and Millsap. For this game I felt like he'd want to have the veteran Collins there, as he always seems to be on the active roster for games, and Fesenko -- as Koufos would be currently assigned to the Flash at this point in time. I would rather have Harpring be on the IR, and have CJ be active . . . but Harpring is going to play this season, even in my hypothetical scenarios.

This is way more than I ever wanted to type about this . . . it's not like Sloan is going to listen to me, and recognize the optimum playing times for certain players (i.e. Memo @ 35+, AK @ 37, etc.), and let them play that much time. So in a way this was completely pointless . . . but in another way, this is the essence of blogging. It's all very Taoist in that regard.

Utah Jazz Pre-Season 2008-2009: X Factor

The major X-Factor this season is not going to be guard play . . . or post defense . . . or bench production. All three of those things have normalized themselves, our guards are who they are, our post defense needs improvement and our bench is very productive. The whole issue of next off-season will not hang over the heads of this team all season long either -- as they will focus on the games at hand. If this does become a large factor it will actually serve as a positive motivation for the team to get it done this season, instead of just rely on the fact that they are all so young. (Eldest player on the team is Brevin Knight at 32) The X-factor for this season is, bluntly, Andrei Kirilenko. I've written about him a lot ever since I started this blog (61 times as of this writing), and that is no doubt correlated to how complicated his situation is with our team.

I don't need to rehash everything here, we all know that he makes more money than he could ever justify on the court. We also know that he's pretty talented, and when given the minutes, he can do some amazing things -- things no one else on our team can do. Right now he's going to come off the bench for us (which may be good -- or bad).

The main reason why he's the X factor is because of escalation. Back in the 80s you were a contending team if you had two really good players (for example, the Jazz didn't start to win until they had Stockton and Malone). Then somewhere in the 90s you needed a third guy to be a good team -- and all these crops of "the big three" started to be talked about. Some teams still did well with two really good players (like Shaq and Kobe), while other teams needed that third guy to get them over the top. The last, best example of this would be the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Escalation now has changed things, and to be a good team you're going to need four good guys.

For example, a team like Orlando (three good guys in Dwight, Hedo and Rashard) can only advance so far in the playoffs because their three guys aren't the best three guys around. They would need a 4th guy to be as good. Moreover, the LA Lakers now sport line ups with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom. The Detroit Pistons have been playing forever with Chauncey, Rip, Tay and 'Sheed. Houston has reloaded and are now Tracy, Yao, Ron and Battier/Rafer (they equal one good player).

Brewer is a nice player, but right now he's not at the same level as most of the guys I've listed -- he's not at an All-Star level. Andrei, on the other hand, has all the credentials to be a player at that level. He is a go-to-guy for his national team, he compliments the other three guys (Deron, Carlos and Memo) well, and he's BEEN just as good as an All-Star at times during his career (Like last season's victory over the Lakers when Memo and Booz were out and he had a triple double and nearly a 5x5 in the same game).

Four is the new three; just as three was the new two. We need that 4th guy to step up. And as a result, Andrei Kirilenko is our X-Factor this season. We need less 12 point, 4 assist games from him and more 16 point, 6 rebound, 5 assists games from him if the Jazz are going to be one of the top 5 teams at the end of the season -- instead of just at the beginning.

Things to look for this season: Deron Williams

I saved the best for last -- Deron Williams really is the best player on this Jazz team right now. It's his team, and everyone from the Jazz Brass to the most clueless fan knows that he's the face of the franchise. Most pre-season pundits have suggested that the Jazz will go only as far as Deron will take them. Duh! That's like saying the most obvious of proclamations . . . like Charles Barkley more than sufficiently nourished, or that Governor Sarah Palin is "Folksy". Right now Deron is on the shelf, but even if he misses an incomprehensible 6 weeks it's not going to hurt our team. When he comes back I fully expect him to continue his ascent up into the upper echelon of players in the league right now. He may never get the free reign to do everything that Chris Paul does -- but Chris Paul will never shoot as well, and so far, Chris Paul has a lot of catching up to do in this whole "winning" department. I don't need to say much else about our All-NBA team member and Gold medal winner, so, what three things should we look for this season from Deron Williams?

1. Come back strong from his injury: Modern sports medicine is such that players now return from injuries stronger than they were before them. This is especially going to be true in the case of Deron Williams and his minor ankle sprain. Why? More than anything else, I don't think we've ever such seen a demonstratively competitive player on our roster before. Stockton wanted to win, but rarely showed it. On the other hand, Malone was always intense and wanted to win, but he worked so hard in everything was there anything left at the end of the season I wonder? AK wants to win, but only leads through his play. Boozer is very demonstrative, but what do we really know about his desires for winning? Deron Williams flat out has the will to win. Larry H. Miller said that Deron is so fixated on any slight (real or imagined) that his entire concept of winning only exists if someone else LOSES at his expense. He doesn't want to win for the sake of winning. He wants to win for the sake of beating you. Babyfaced Chris Paul may win games, but Deron Williams wants to murder people on the court. That probably explains their head to head record against each other since college . . .
2. Make the All-Star Team: Brandon Roy is a great player, he managed to hit two shots in a row last night after his team was down by 20. Brandon Roy was an All-Star last season. Maybe he will be this season as well, but one thing for sure, nothing is going to keep Deron Williams off the All-Star team this season. How can you be on an All-NBA Team, represent Team USA in the Olympics -- and NOT be an All-Star? Western Conference coaches found a way to do that last season. Deron Williams' play has made them all learn their lesson.
3. Lead the Jazz to the promised land: Okay, this may be a little 'homer'-rific (definition #6 on that list), but I think that our team is really good this year. We're not perfect, and there are some serious holes that need to be fixed (somehow). We also will have to play against the best teams in the NBA that are not clad in shamrocks to win the West. It looks hard, but this is the most talented team from 1 to 15 that we've ever had. Our team is lead by Deron Williams, and flanked by three other All-Stars. We should be able to sleepwalk our way to 8 playoff wins this season. (Unless we face the Lakers in the 2nd round again, grrrr)

Things to look for this season: Carlos Boozer

Boozer is in a special group -- no, I'm not talking about him being one of the very few people to average 20 and 10 over the last two seasons -- I'm talking about a productive player for the Utah Jazz that Jazz fans love to hate, and hate to love; yet the rest of the media and fans seem to think he's a pretty good player. It's easy when you're a good player, and loved -- and thus any flaws in your game that you may or may not have are forgiven. Guys like John Stockton, Jeff Hornacek and Deron Williams fall neatly in this group. It is also easy when you are a bad player, and hated -- and everyone knows that you are a "bad guy", or crappy. Guys like John Amaechi and lovable loser Greg Ostertag fit the bill.

There is this one other category, though, where fans don't really know what to make of them. They are very talented players . . . but somehow their flaws are not absolved like those of other players in higher regard. This group is filled with the Karl Malones and Carlos Boozers of the franchise. Take Malone for example . . . he's not loved all over the world, but no one doubts his abilities as a player. No one usually, except Jazz fans who are divided into thinking that he was "Awesome" or alternatively, "Not Awesome Enough". Stockton is a flawless God, while Malone is regarded as the guy who held him back in some circles. I find this ridiculous . . . because we've seen point guards on bad teams put up good numbers but not win shit (Andre Miller in Cleveland, for example) just like scorers on bad teams who put up good numbers and don't win (Like Carmelo Anthony in Denver). Stockton needed a guy who could put the ball in the basket, and Karl did that better than any other player in NBA history save for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

What does this have to do with Carlos Boozer? Well, for starters, Boozer is a high scoring power forward whose offensive contributions to our team wins games. His defense has been a shadow of what it was when he played in Cleveland though -- and more over, his contributions to the team as a whole, have been greatly reduced in some sort of NBA fan revisionism. Easily one can see that Carlos Boozer isn't perfect . . . but a lot of teams would still start him -- including our team. (Even if he isn't adored but all)

This looks to be a big year in the life of Carlos Boozer -- not only is it a make or break year for the team financially, but it's a year where he can opt out of his contract and demand a max salary. Does he deserve it? Probably not, but when teams are willing to pay Rashard Lewis $14.9 million dollars for less than 5.5 rpg (BTW, Lewis plays the 4 for Orlando apparently) one can imagine a guy who rebounds more than twice that amount per game would earn himself a considerably large contract. Double doubles pay the bills in the NBA. So what can we expect from C-Booz this year?

1. Unless he gets a season ending injury, he's opting out: This is going to happen. Deron Williams even commented on it during the summer that it's purely a financial move by Boozer that he would do, if he was in his place. The only way that I see Booz not opting out is if he has a season ending injury that would limit his max asking price on the open market. Otherwise, he's going to have a contract year like no other in recent Utah Jazz history.
2. He's going to score and rebound like crazy: We tend to focus on the negative as fans. Let's take a look at what Boozer has given us over the last two seasons: over 800 rebounds per season and over 1500 points per season. His career stats are 17 and 10, which is what Memo averaged for half a season, only in the games where he played over 35 mpg. It's hard to win the game if you don't have the ball. One of the most frequent ways a team gets the ball is through rebounds. Carlos rebounds. It's hard to win the game if you don't put the ball in the basket. Carlos has averaged 8.75 FGM and 3.5 FTM in the past two seasons, for a combined 21 points (at the very least average) every game. I can imagine that he's going to go a little nuts during a contract year and get something like 25 and 12 this season. It may be a lofty goal, but I can easily see him putting up the shots to get 25 for a season -- especially when money is on the line.
3. Nothing increases the size of your next contract like winning: Yes, Boozer *may* be about the money (I don't know how true this is), and people everywhere doubt his sincerity . . . but if there is any season for him to be all about winning it is this season. If the Jazz get through the 2nd round it will be because of many reasons. One of the largest reasons would have to be Carlos Boozer, and a rediscovery of how to play interior defense. Yes, Boozer *can* play defense . . . we've seen how quickly he can move on offense, and his fundamentals . . . he used to block shots back in Cleveland in addition to being a good one on one post defender. Jerry Sloan has made it a point this season to stress defense, and you can see for yourself that Carlos is being more active on defense, and putting up more resistance to people scoring on him. For the Jazz it may mean the difference between 6 playoff wins and more than 8 playoff wins. For Carlos Boozer it may mean the difference between a big phat contract, and one that eclipses the Gross National Product of some developing nations.

Utah Jazz Pre-Season 2008-2009: Breakout Player of the year

Few factors influence a player breaking out like the availability of playing time, youth turning into maturity and the potential for greater riches. It's hard to break out (statistically at least) if you don't have any time on the floor. It's hard to break out if you're an old fart -- usually the only break out players are players who are drafted young, spend a few seasons seasoning, and then eventually get it together. Lastly, nothing motivates (most) players to play harder than being in a contract year.

Let's tackle the last part first -- contract years. Who, on our team, is in a contract year? Carlos Boozer most likely is, as soon as he finalizes his player's opt out. Okur could also terminate his contract early this season -- and can be in a contract year, though I don't know if he will. Kyle Korver appears next on our depth chart who falls in this situation -- but he's not a true free agent either, as he'll have to terminate his contract early -- though I don't see our team, or other teams out there, who are going to spend more than what he's currently making on a guy who is a shooting specialist. (He's set to make over $5 million next season) Jarron Collins' contract expires this year (I'll email everyone the address of the party when I get it organized), so does Brevin Knight's contract. More to the point, Ronnie Price, Paul Millsap and possibly also Morris Almond may be free agents. (The Jazz have till Oct 31st to pick up the team option on Almond's contract)

Some of those guys are at their peak, like Boozer and Okur. I don't expect them having break out years, especially how both were All-Stars in previous seasons. So that eliminates them both. Collins and Knight aren't going to get better either, so they are both out. More over, Collins isn't going to get the minutes needed for him to break out -- and sadly (or, well, appropriately) neither will the young master Morris Almond. So count Mobe out -- unless there are a lot of injuries or he gets turned to the darkside if the Jazz don't pick up his team option, and he goes out and averages 40 ppg in the D-League.

Who does that leave? Ronnie Price, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver.

The Case for Ronnie Price:

Especially with Deron currently on the shelf, he has all the time needed to impress. He's in a contract year, and all season long he's going to be looking over his shoulder because cagey veteran Brevin Knight is on the team -- so he's not going to slack off. Aside from all of that, Price knows our system, this is his second year here and he's a quick young player who has talent. He was dropping three point bombs on the Houston Rockets last season in the playoffs, only to throw down dunks and block shots in round two, vs. the LA Lakers. He's probably not going to see a huge over-all playing time increase from the 10 mpg he got last year because Deron plays around 37 a game though -- so this could be a problem when it comes to really 'statistically' breaking out.

The Case for Kyle Korver:

Sure, he's closer to 30 than 20, but he's primed for a break out year -- even if he's not entirely motivated by getting a new contract. For one, this is his first Jazz training camp -- and if we learned anything from Hornacek's playing days, this makes a huge statistical difference. I already talked about how much better Hornacek got after 1 Jazz training camp, so I'm not going to explain it again. More than that, just look at Korver's stats from the preseason . . . he complained all off-season about how poorly he shot for us, and according to how he's shooting for the Jazz this season he seems to have really *really* been pissed about it. He's currently shooting 50.9 fg%, 100% at the FT line (and yes, he's taken more than just one shot from there), and 57.1 3pt%. Last season he shot 47.4 fg%, 91.7 ft% and 38.8 3pt% in a Jazz uniform. So he's upped his shot making ability across the board. He's not going to play 30 minutes per game, but will still probably finish games for us. More than just being primed for a big year he's already been showing that he's having a big year.

The Case of Paul Millsap:

Millsap is young, rugged, and plays interior defense. He is a rebounding beast and he knows that he controls his own destiny. If he wants to stay in Utah it's up to him to show the Jazz Brass that they should give him money, and say goodbye to Carlos Boozer after this season. His rookie deal is ending this year and there are plenty of teams out there that could use a Millsap type of player. He's in that group of players like he, Maxiel, Tyrus Thomas and Craig Smith who are young shotblockers who can jump all day long. It's very elite company when I can only think of three other guys his age who show his potential. Every season his MPG has gone up, and he seems to have added more offensive finesse to his game this year. If everything goes right I could see him average 16 and 6 this season -- the only thing in his way is his place on the depth chart. Sloan hinted that this season he's going to play people who play defense, if someone on the floor isn't -- that guy will sit on the bench and watch. This may be Millsap's chance to breakout.

What about Ronnie Brewer and CJ?

I think Brewer broke out last season -- if you don't, then go re-watch some games from last season. Brewer is going to continue to improve but I think that he should be eliminated from this discussion. As for Ceejay, well his play so far is eliminating him from having a breakout season . . . but at least he's making $14 million dollars . . . so it's not all bad.

Conclusion:

It's going to come down between Korver and Millsap in my mind -- Knight and Price will both do enough this season to deserve contracts next season. Millsap is the youngest of the three, has the most potential, and offers a financial respite from having to pay Carlos Boozer the moon. Korver is currently having the best season so far -- so he's the one who is actually breaking out. We'll see which of these guys actually does it when the games count . . .

Brevin Knight had a really good 4th quarter

It's "only" the preseason, and it was probably against bench guys, but Brevin Knight had 2 points, 7 assists and 4 steals in the 4th quarter. It was so good that the SL Trib even got off of their "214 best Jazz players ever" article kick to write about it. If you followed the game (I did not), or read the play-by-play than you can clearly see Knight developing some consistency and experience working with several of our key bench guys (Korver, Millsap and Kirilenko). I think that's pretty necessary as he has to pick all of the nuances of running our offense with our guys as soon as possible. Furthermore, I think he's doing a pretty good job if this game (his first real game without injury) is any indication.

The following is from the play-by-play of the 4th quarter that's up on ESPN's website:

Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

• [11:06] Kyle Korver makes jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 78 - Utah 75
• [9:06] Brevin Knight defensive rebound -- Portland 79 - Utah 78
• [8:57] Kyle Korver makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 79 - Utah 81
• [8:27] Brevin Knight misses layup -- Portland 79 - Utah 81
• [7:50] Kyle Korver makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 79 - Utah 84
• [6:58] Andrei Kirilenko makes two point shot (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 81 - Utah 87
• [4:18] Kosta Koufos makes 18-foot jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 87 - Utah 92
• [3:55] Jerryd Bayless lost ball (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 87 - Utah 92
• [3:28] Shavlik Randolph lost ball (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 87 - Utah 94
• [3:06] Paul Millsap makes 18-foot jumper (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 87 - Utah 96
• [2:35] Kosta Koufos makes slam dunk (Brevin Knight assists) -- Portland 87 - Utah 98
• [1:39] Jerryd Bayless lost ball (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 89 - Utah 98
• [1:08] Rudy Fernandez bad pass (Brevin Knight steals) -- Portland 89 - Utah 98
• [0:35] Brevin Knight makes 9-foot running jumper -- Portland 89 - Utah 100

If this game happened in the regular season, and on the road, then the Mayor of Portland would have almost be forced to give Brevin Knight the key to the city . . . but there really would have been no need as Knight would have probably swiped it already. I think I like Knight playing with this group better as he's a pure point guard in that pass first mold. When you have Korver on the floor it's probably best to have a pass first guard anyway. Also a pass first guard is able to lead marginal offensive talents to the right spots where they can score. I don't really conceptualize Price being able to help get Kosta Koufos dunks, but I could be wrong about that.

I also appreciate how Knight isn't against throwing the lob pass to AK going for alley-oops. This is something that Andrei used to get a lot of back when he was playing 37 mpg and an All-Star. It really started with Mark Jackson passing the rock to AK when AK first began to score big points in some games. (And there once was a time where he used to be getting 20 like nothing) In past seasons AK hasn't been getting the rock from his PGs, and he's being passed over for receiving alley-oops in favor of Deron throwing it to Brewer instead. Astute Jazz fans may remember that the Jackson to Kirilenko oop was very successful and caught a lot of team off guard. The Knight to Kirilenko oop seems to be doing that -- all the while making Andrei feel more involved in the offense.

Knight is a stabilizing force for the 2nd unit, much like I theorized. This is very true on offense, but even more so on defense. You don't usually luck into 4 steals to close out a game . . . I'm sure part of it would have to deal with his pressure defense against younger players. If we're going to hold off the young Portland Trailblazers it would serve us well to have a cagey vet who can strip them of their pride as often as he strips them of the ball.

Utah Jazz Pre-Season 2008-2009: Top Transaction of the Off-Season

After being bounced out of the 2007-2008 Playoffs by the eventual Western Conference Champion LA Lakers the Jazz were faced with some glaring roster talent holes. The top three (for as long as this group as been together) have been:

1. the need for a defensive bigman,
2. a defensive wing player,
3. and more insurance at the point.

That last point is interesting because with Deron Williams' being drafted by the Jazz in the 2005 Draft you'd think that we'd be pretty solid there. It's actually a double edged sword because we have such a good point guard that we rely on him so much (over 37 mpg the last two seasons). If something were to happen to him (knock on wood, or well, knock on the current injury) then we would need to make up that 37 mpg that he's not going to be able to play somewhere. For those of you who are late to the party, this is exactly the current situation that the Utah Jazz are in.

And because of it, and a variety of other reasons, trading for Brevin Knight was the top transaction of the Off-Season.

But back to those points for a bit . . .

The need for a defensive bigman has not been taken care of, though, the Jazz have been drafting size for a bit now (Kyrylo Fesenko in 2007, Kosta Koufos and Ante Tomic in 2008 -- all three are 7'1 or better). The law of averages suggests that maybe one of them will develop into a better interior defender than either Carlos Boozer or Mehmet Okur sometime down the road. As it stands right now, Fesenko's blocks per foul ratio was already better than both of theirs (significantly) as a rookie.

The Defensive Wing project (aka. Ronnie Brewer), on the other hand, is going into it's third year of existence and early projections look promising. So really, the only thing Kevin O'Connor (who is severely underrated as a GM) had to address urgently this off-season was shoring up point guard. [Which is fine, as he's going to be really busy next off-season]

So what did Kevin do this off-season? He turned Jason Hart (our 3rd string guy) into Brevin Knight (who might actually start for us if Deron is out for longer than 2 weeks). Hart was so bad for us last season that trading him for Miami Heat's Chris Quinn would have clearly been a great trade for the Jazz. Trading for a better player, a guy who has a career assist to turn over ratio greater than 3:1 over a decade in the league, mind you, makes this transaction as a no brainer. The absolute cherry on top is the fact that Knight makes less money than Hart, and Knight is an expiring contract.

It's an under-rated move because it wasn't a team with a lot of cap space signing a big name guy like Elton Brand or Baron Davis . . . but as far as reward goes this was huge. Knight is a steadying force, a veteran guy who can help us win on the road (we won on the road with Fisher, we lost on the road when our veteran presence was Harpring), and a really tenacious defender. He gets a lot of steals and he's really scrappy. He can play man-to-man defense against the shorter, quicker guards. (There's currently a pretty good one right now that the press talks about)

Lastly, with the events of this Pre-season resulting in a very key injury (that we shouldn't be too worried about), hind-sight suggests that out of all of the transactions made this off-season (and there was more than one) . . . that this was the most important one to make.

Really, if we had to go one week without Deron and rely on Hart and Price I'd really be worried. We could conceivably go for one and a half months without Deron now that we have Knight and Price and still be leading our division.

Trading for Brevin Knight was the top transaction of the Off-Season. Thanks Kevin O'Connor!

Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)