All Euro (Whitey) Team comment and other thoughts on recent blog articles I've enjoyed

I love readings blogs . . . that's actually the main reason why I created one as well -- because I wanted to give back. Unfortunately I don't have all the time in the world to read them anymore, but I try to keep abreast of blog posts via BallHype.com. (They are fantastic, I use BallHype.com more often than I use Google.com) Anyway, here's a selection of blog posts and my take on them --

Rebounding Differential Rankings in the NBA [Nov 6] -- Khandor's Sports Blog talks about something Jazz fans have been very lucky to have over the last few seasons, and actually positive rebounding differential. Utah is a strong rebounding club (currently #6th in the NBA in differential at +5.00 as of November 6th, 2008). Last season the Jazz were tied for 3rd over-all with the Boston Celtics at +3.1 rebound differential; Cleveland was at +4.2, and Houston at +4.0. Two of the clubs above the Jazz (Detroit and Philly) have played the Raptors though, and thus, those rebounding numbers look highly inflated. Khandor shows a nice chart and talks about it a bit. I tend to value rebounding differential more than actual average RPG because it shows how good (or bad) a team is compared to other teams -- as opposed to being an isolated number by itself. I wish the Raptors do get better rebounding, as they are one of the teams that I root for. Thanks Khandor for blogging about this, it's nice to know that I'm not the only crazy person out there who likes stats.

Zach at Gunaxin.com recently blogged about The All Whitey Basketball Team -- Zach describes and details a 12 man roster of purely American white guys. He comes up with Kirk Hinrich, Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy Jr., David Lee and Chris Kaman as starters. The bench is comprised of Brad Miller, Kyle Korver, Steve Blake, Kevin Love, Wally Szcerbiak, Troy Murphy and Nick Collison. I don't think that team would suck. (It would be a whole lot better than an All-Asian Basketball team, for starters . . . and as a guy who's parents were born in Asia I can say that, I guess in that Russell Peters type of "i'm a minority so I can be racist" type of comedy that Sarah Silverman employs) That's a tangent though . . . I wanted to make an all European Basketball team to counter . . . this is what I came up with (In no order):

1. Tony Parker (PG) -- France/Spurs
2. Hidayet Turkoglu (SF/SG) -- Turkey/Magic
3. Andrei Kirilenko (SF/PF) -- Russia/Jazz
4. Dirk Nowitzki (PF/C) -- Germany/Mavericks
5. Pau Gasol (PF/C) -- Spain/LA Lakers
6. Jose Manuel Calderon (PG) -- Spain/Raptors
7. Sasha Vujacic (SG/PG) -- Slovenia/LA Lakers
8. Rudy Fernandez (SG/SF) -- Spain/Trailblazers
9. Predrag Stojakovic (SF/SG) -- Serbia (Croatia)/Hornets
10. Linas Kleiza (SF/PF) -- Lithuania/Nuggets
11. Mehmet Okur (PF/C) -- Turkey/Jazz
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (C) -- Lithuania/Cavaliers

If you want only "White Euros" then take out Tony Parker and put in Beno Udrih instead and start Jose instead. I think that team would be pretty comparable to the USA Whitey's team, though probably beat them in a 7 game series handily. The Euro team would surely flop a whole lot as well . . . the toughest guy on the European team would have to be either Kleiza or Okur, which says a whole lot.

"I was saying booo-urns . . . !" - Hans Moleman from The Simpsons. "Apparently" the NYC Crowd is not booing Chris Duhon. Or are they? Read it at What would Oakley Do? The Duhon/Fog Light analogy is as hilarious as it is apt -- and reason enough to read this article.

Apparently Jerry Sloan has been coaching the Jazz since the Ronald Reagan years . . . the Salt Lake Tribune brings the funk on that while I ponder just how many years I've been a fanatic fan of the NBA . . . and how much else I could have accomplished in my life if I was not . . .

Flashback Friday: Andrei back when he was AK-47

Once upon a time, there was a promising young forward who was all over the court, blocking shots, catching alley-oop passes and making crazy passes. Fast forward through a few injury plagued years, one trip to the All-Star game, and numerous role changes and we have a new incarnation of Andrei Kirilenko -- the dynamic pass first Point Forward springing to life off the bench to wreck havoc like the monster created out of the mind of Coach David Blatt. Unlike what some people think, Andrei's ego didn't explode by being 'benched', nor did the former MVP of Europe (2007) cry about it at all. His own team owner said that Andrei is all about winning, and will do whatever it takes to win. If coming off the bench is going to help the team win, he will do so. This isn't the Andrei is the 6th man article though, this is the Andrei as a player article . . .

A major criticism that I find to be very unfounded (and confounding) is that some people don't think Andrei plays with heart anymore; and that his statistically inferior recent seasons are bereft of desire. (If he didn't care why did he cry a few seasons ago about not being able to help the team?) They look at the stat differences from the good old days and now and they think that it's simply an effort issue. I looked at the stats, I looked at the stats harder than they did (I spent over two days looking over 258 games over the 2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 seasons). It's not an effort issue. It's a playing time and role issue.

A youngster	An All-Star	An MVP and Champion	Mr. Everything on D	A 6th man?

Sure, there are other factors at play, like the quality of the roster, the number of shots he takes, the shift from power forward to small forward and the like . . . but there is a very visceral consistency in his play over the last five seasons (his All-Star year till now) when you view his stats in games where he plays around the same number of minutes. Sure, his season averages look like they are going down, but Andrei is actually improving in some ways -- it's just that his minutes have gone all over the place the last few seasons, from 37 one season to under 30 the next. (Really, this happened -- 37.7 mpg in 2005-2006 and 29.3 mpg in 2006-2007.)

When he was an All-Star (and averaged over 37 mpg) back in 2003-2004 he was on a team without Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, or young guys like Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer. He was the only guy with real talent, and had to do a lot of everything. His season averages were (with rounding) 15.5 ppg, 8 rpg, 3 apg, 3 bpg and 2 spg -- all the while his points to FGA ratio was 1.31.

Last season, 2007-2008, on a team with Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, with younger players like Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer he played the three, instead of the four as an all-star. In games where he played more than 35 mpg (and he played in quite a few and in those games averaged 37 mpg, just like his All-Star season) he averaged 14.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg, 2 bpg and 2 spg. (again, rounded up and down accordingly)

	MPG	PPG	FGA	Points/FGA	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals
2003-2004	37	15.5	12	1.3	8	3	3	2
2007-2008	37	14.5	9.5	1.5	6	5	2	2
		-1	-2.5	+0.2	-2	+2	-1

What's the difference? He's not playing inside anymore (and he has more competition for boards and blocks) and ended up getting 2 less boards and 1 less block. Guys get less rebounds and blocks when they are defending the three point line instead of the paint. [Though this point is debatable...] He scored less, but he shot less (2.5 less FGA per game, and his points/FGA ratio was actually higher -- 1.5 to 1.3 when he was an All-Star) as well. The only other difference was that he got 2 more APG.

I could (if I wanted to), present the full breakdown from each season, and each different playing time block (all games, only games where he played 30+ mpg, only games where he played 35+ mpg, only games where he played 38+ mpg, or only games where he played 40+ mpg) . . . but I don't need to belabor the point here. Every season for every playing time block since his all-star season his AVERAGE in points / FGA has been between 1.4 and 1.5. His rebounds have been between 6 and 8. His blocks between 2 and 3, his steals between 1.5 and 2, and his points between 13 ppg and 16 ppg. [If you've been following along, those are the same numbers that he has now when playing those many minutes]

His teammates make a little bit of difference, as does his role -- but the major variable in his production is time. Not between 35 mpg and 38 mpg . . . but between playing 35 mpg and playing less than that. (It's a bigger jump than between playing 30 mpg and less than 30 mpg surprisingly!)

Long story short, Andrei isn't a worse player. He's shooting less (he used to shoot it 12 times a game, the season where he cried he shot it 6 times a game and was playing 8 mpg less); and more than anything else -- he is playing much less than he used to. When he gets to play the same amount of time as he used to, he produces similar statistical results. (Again, this is not opinion, I worked it out between season stats, and the stats for the past 5 years where he played 30+ mpg, 35+ mpg, 38+ mpg and 40+ mpg . . . but he's not going to get a shot to average 38 mpg over a season, so basically I just did more work than I needed to.)

He's the same guy, he just has an insanely high contract that he could never justify, especially when his coach changes around what position he plays, or how many minutes he gets to play. He shouldn't be playing 30 mpg, especially not when a lot of that time on the floor has him just watching other guys handle the ball and shoot. But I'm getting ahead of myself here . . .

If he gets enough time he has shown that even with a stacked roster, and on a winning team, he can get crazy stats. Or at least, stats that are very similar to what he used to put up in his All-Star year. He's a consistent producer when he gets consistent minutes. He's actually gotten better as a distributor over the years.

I wonder why some people still think that he's gotten so much worse? Just because his Coach doesn't play him enough minutes? That's a poor reason.

Things to look for this season: Matt Harpring

Love him or hate him, we can all be pretty secure in the knowledge that when (not "if") Matt gets back off the IR, that he's going to play at least 10 mpg at small forward for the rest of the season [Unless Ceejay levels up a few times while Matty is out and becomes a real NBA Starter, of course, but I'm not going to hold my breath]. I could go on and make this a very short post, but I think Matty deserves better.

Like so many other players (Mark Eaton, Thurl Bailey, Jeff Malone, David Benoit, Donyell Marshall, etc), his best years were playing off of Stockton and Malone -- but those years were almost a lifetime ago. In my mind he is now probably best suited as a 'life coach' for our younger players . . . if they could adopt his work ethic then I think we'll be sitting pretty at the center spot in a few seasons. That said: he is still useful on the court. Before you leave this website forever let me further explain what I mean. Harpring is a physical three who rebounds well for his position and doesn't back down from anyone. In recent seasons he's been a thorn in the side of everyone from Carmelo Anthony to Ron Artest. Guys like Korver, Miles and Almond are just not going to be able to make Ron Artest get ejected or take 'Melo out of his game. He's useful in specific situations, especially because we do not have anyone who can replace what he gives on the 'toughness' angle just yet. [I highly recommend this uploaded video by xunlucky17x]

That does not mean I think he needs to be playing big minutes, but he's a special type of player that is useful in certain situations. He's like your 2nd string fullback in American football -- he may not be the starter, or useful in all situations, but on a 3rd and short he's going to get the job done. If you put Harp out there to muscle up against another physical small forward then he is actually useful.

If the other team isn't using a physical small forward then don't put Harpring in the game. Simple as that. Why? Well, for starters: statistically he is getting worse, his shooting range seems to be positively correlated with my shrinking hair line. Back in the early 2000's Harpring could hit threes and I had a full head of hair. Now Harpring misses layups and I have to comb my hair down. It's a sad time for both of us. You don't want to have Harpring on the floor unless you really need to have him on the floor. (Especially when we're close to a title and need to have our younger guys be developed now rather than later) If you need any other reason why you don't want him on the floor just ask yourself if you think Harpring is quick enough to defend any perimeter small forwards any more. The answer is, of course, no.

Harp will not let go of playing time without a fight, just like he wont let go of this ball unless he gets to keep Luke Ridnour's forearm as a prize.	Click on the image to make it bigger

Here's a chart that (tries to) depict how many games Matty has played in each of the 6 seasons that he's been with the Utah Jazz. [This is the dark blue bar] This chart also (tries to) depict how many minutes he plays per game.[This is the light blue bar] As you can see he usually plays over 70 games per season (he has averaged 75.5 games per season in the last four seasons). He played 36.6 minutes per game back in 2003-2004 -- his most as a Jazz player -- but since then there's been quite a decline which corresponds with accumulated injuries and advancing age.

If you've done the math (and I have, if you want I can e-mail you the spread sheet) over the last four seasons (from age 28 to 31) his minutes per game has been going down by (on average) 4.625 mpg in each successive season. [Data: -3.5 between 2002-2003 and 2003-2004; -5.7 between 2003-2004 and 2004-2005; -1.9 between 2004-2005 and 2005-2006; and -7.4 between 2006-2007 and last season, 2007-2008] For you math geeks out there who remember their y=mx +b and slope = y2-y1 / x2-x1 formulas the average rate of declined MPG (in this case, -4.625) is also equal to the slope if you use the points (2, 36.6) and (6, 18.1).

If you extrapolate this to the next season, this current season (2008-2009), then you get 18.1 - 4.625 . . . or 13.475 mpg. I could live with Harpring playing 13.5 mpg this season, I'd be happier with 12, but I'll take what I can get. It remains to be seen if his playing time decline is going to be so linear . . . he may very well just play in under 70 games this season, but in those games play closer to 20 mpg for all I know. All of this gobble-dee-gook aside, what three things can we look for this season from Matt Harpring?

1. He's not going to be rushed back: The Jazz have enough wings to weather the storm until he comes back to "anchor" the 2nd unit with his veteran play. (Anchor, as in, he brings the play down, check out his +/- stats sometime, 4th worst on the team last season) In as way, his injury has come at a good time when Sloan is more open to trying out different line-ups and open to developing his young talent. We've already seen C.J. Miles take the starting role while AK supplants Harpring and the key bench veteran. Matt Harpring's current injury is the main reason why Jerry Sloan has had to change up the line up this off-season. (Sure, Deron's injury is an acute issue right now, but the line up was changed before he got injured) You can be sure that when he comes back that Jerry Sloan will shuffle things all over again. Right now AK is being put in the veteran off the bench role that our second unit really needs for stability. This is usually Harpring's role, and I can easily see Jerry Sloan immediately revert to putting AK at the 3 in the starting line up after Harpring is back. Though, Jerry does some funny things time to time, like how in 2005-2006 to finish the season Memo was the starting 4, and Carlos was the 5, because Memo had been playing the 4 most of the season while Carlos was on the injured reserve. I can't really predict what's going to happen when Harpring gets back, but I know that he's going to play. He's not going to give up playing time without a fight either. Thankfully, there is no current time table for his return, so we're not going to see him for a while.
2. Frustrate the fans: Some fans are going to complain that when he comes back that he still plays too many minutes. Some will complain that he's not playing enough and that "we need his _____" (defense, rebounding, toughness, scoring, veteran play, hustle, flops, crew cut, fouls, whiteness ?). Both sides are not going to be placated until he retires from the NBA and joins the Georgia High school Football Hall of Fame. (Apparently there is such a thing, and here's Harpring's high school team's record) He's one of the most divisive players in Utah Jazz history, and part of the reason stems from the fact that many fans would rather develop his eventual replacement instead of keep giving a guy all these minutes as he breaks down every season. (Jazz career average for games played per season: 68.5) He's injured right now, and there's no time table for his return -- so the "sit Harpring" contingent will have an undisclosed amount of time to sit Harpring all they want. To be clear, I think I fall neatly in that contingent as well, but I don't think that it's time to take him out behind the barn and shoot him yet. (That's next season...)
3. Continue to play physical, smash-mouth basketball: If the Jazz are in the playoffs, he is going to play in them. I don't know when his immune system is going to be back online, but I can empathize with him as I've been a little sick lately. When he does come back, I feel bad for the forwards that'll match up with him when he's finally been given the green light to play at full velocity. (Speed just isn't a strong enough word to describe his game) He only knows how to play the game one way, and you can be sure that he'll be a force to be reckoned with when he's on the court this season. (Just a force for which team, ours or theirs, remains to be seen) If we have to face a team with a physical small forward in the playoffs I can see him getting a lot more burn than 10-14 mpg like he will this regular season. I'm pretty sure that he can rattle a guy like Artest if they face off against each other in the playoffs.

I don't know when he's going to play for us, but it's a safe bet that the Jazz may start off by watching his minutes very closely. This may contribute to continuing a downward trend in minutes played per game for Matt, and as a 32 year old with the knees of a 45 year old, I'm sure his body (if not his mind) will appreciate it. Now only if he can continue to teach the younglings (Kosta and Kyrylo) how to throw their body around and play physical like he has all these years . . .

Rafael Araujo waived by Timberwolves

This story is all of 3 days old, and here are the (slightly contrasting) reactions from Raptors fans and Utah Jazz fans. This story is kinda pointless, but I really needed an excuse to post this picture . . . and now I have just the excuse I was looking for.

"Wel-come . . . to FANtasy Island!" -- Yeah, you know, like Ricardo Montalban and Herve Villechaize . . . but a bit more homosexual this time around.

Seriously though, part of the problem is the fact that the T-Wolves have a lot of good(ish) young guys in the frontcourt. The other part of the problem seems to stem from Araujo's flaws as a player. I wish him luck as he seems like a pretty nice guy and as he is a former Utah Jazz player after all.

Pushing the envelope

Now that the margins allow for more stuff I'm going to post something that tests the capabilities of our newly operational battle station. . . or something to that effect.

Depth Chart:

Point Guard	Shooting Guard	Small Forward	Power Forward	Center
Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer	Andrei Kirilenko	Carlos Boozer	Mehmet Okur
Ronnie Price	Kyle Korver	Matt Harpring	Paul Millsap	Jarron Collins
Jason Hart	C.J. Miles			Kyrylo Fesenko
	Morris Almond			Kosta Koufos

"We should be woo'd and were not made to woo"

Yes, more Shakespeare means more Ceejay news. Apparently C.J. has signed an offer sheet to play with the Oklahoma Jerkoffs or whatever they are calling themselves.

"Miles signed a four-year, $15 million contract Friday with Oklahoma City, according to sources. Utah will have seven days to decide about matching the offer sheet and keeping the restricted free-agent guard.

"Troy Weaver, who spent four years as the Jazz's director of player personnel and head scout, left in May to become Oklahoma City's assistant general manager. Although Weaver liked Miles, Oklahoma City general manager Sam Presti was said to have drive the deal." (Siler, Salt Lake Tribune, 2008)

Essentially the Jazz control his destiny as a Restricted Free Agent because the team threw him a very small bone a few weeks ago:

"The Jazz, who tendered the three-year veteran a one-year qualifying offer this offseason for $1.2 million, will have seven days to match the restricted free agent's agreement with the newly relocated franchise from Seattle." (Genessy and Buckley, Deseret News, 2008)

While I wasn't a fan of his single cut "Whip Game", which he recorded last summer at Dee Brown's studio, I was a fan of C.J.'s potential as a basketball player. (Btw, Whip Game has been removed from YouTube) As such, locking up this guy (who very well could become exactly what the Jazz want at SG) for 4 years at the low-low rate of $3.75 million per season is a steal of a deal. After all, this is the same franchise that's paying Jason Hart nearly as much, and paying Matt Harpring almost twice as much per season.

All indications as of Friday night suggest that the Jazz brass do not know what they are going to do about C.J. (Buckley, ESPN, 2008; Genessy and Buckley, Deseret News, 2008; Siler, Salt Lake Tribune, 2008) -- but the point of keeping 14 guys on roster (what the Jazz currently have) as opposed to 15 for 'roster flexibility' is a pretty weak reason. Utah doesn't usually make many roster moves anyway. Hiring a 70 year old grandmother to teach yoga would improve our roster flexibility. I'm not alone in wanting him back in a Jazz uniform next season. Deron Williams, formerly of The Colony, has a certain affinity for C.J., who went to Skyline High -- both Greater Dallas Area high schools. They were both products of the storied 2005 NBA Draft, and Deron looks out for C.J:

Photo credit Getty Images/NBAE

"I want him back here in the baddest way. I think he can be a great player for us if he gets the opportunity. I don't think he's ever been really given an opportunity to come in and prove himself." (Deron Williams, via The Salt Lake Tribune, 2008)

Morris Almond, fresh from a 16 point drubbing by the Spurs, feels as though

"[the free agency] is the league, a constant change . . . I don't worry too much about things I can't control . . . I'm proud of him, and I'm going to call him tonight." (Almond, via NBA.com, 2008)

Almond does recognize that if the Utah Jazz do not match the offer put forth by Oklahoma that there may be more opportunity for him here, for him to "capitalize on" (Almond, via NBA.com, 2008). It goes without saying that Morris stands to benefit the most from Ceejay's departure from our team.

Over the past few offseasons C.J. has pissed the Jazz front office off, and his on court production has been entirely less than convincing. That said, this is a relatively cheap contract for 4 years; and when his number has been called, C.J. has done his best. (successfully defending Carmelo Anthony last season when Ronnie Brewer was injured, for example) For the majority of the season he was shooting above 40% from three, and has the uncanny ability to be one of those "stealth dunkers". Other teams don't appreciate his hops, dribbling ability, and finishing strength -- and hence, guys like Amare get crammed on by 6'5 benchwarmers.

The Jazz have also made a bad habit of letting some talent slip away because of money grubbing . . . this is the same team that drafted Raul Lopez (with the intention of stashing him in Europe and thus, not paying him) instead of Tony Parker (former MVP of the NBA Finals); that also let Maurice (Mo) Williams go for nothing; and basically decides to "not" show people "the money".

Kevin O'Connor and the rest of the Jazz brass need to really look at the pros and cons of this move.

"We received an offer sheet, but we really haven't had a chance to analyze the contract," Jazz general manager Kevin O'Connor said. "Se we'll wait and see what we've got and make a decision based on what's the best thing for the Jazz." (Kevin O'Connor, via The Salt Lake Tribune. 2008)

This is a very cheap move for insurance, and if nothing else, helps to keep Deron happy. When your max player and face of the franchise goes on record to say (paraphrasing, here) "I want this guy on my team" it's probably not a good idea to piss him off -- on the same day he signs a $70 million contract with you.

Bostjan Nachbar ?

I respect David Locke. He's a numbers guy, and you can really tell that he is more than just a numbers guy. He's also a Jazz fan. Mr. Locke is humble enough to admit that he's far from a professional scout (E.g. this); but he's a lot closer to the game than many of us are. If you don't know who this guy is, he's a radio personality for KFan 1320 -- a local sports talk radio station that broadcasts out of Utah, and can be heard on the web here.

With a keen eye looking towards the not-so-immediate future (of 2010), Mr. Locke postulates about the availability of Bostjan (Boki) Nachbar.

"Harpring's contract expires in 2010 when the Nets are trying to clear space it would be interesting to know if they would be willing to do a sign and trade with Nachbar." (Locke, 2008)

Honestly, Nachbar may very well be an adequate replacement for our own Matty Harpring; however, Harpring gets by with his scrappiness -- Nachbar (whom I've seen play only a few times) does not appear to have that same tenacity. We've seen relatively productive European players wilt in our system. After all, the much maligned Gordan Giricek was a guy who used to score 14 ppg, get 5 rpg, 2.5 apg and over 1 spg if given the opportunity.

As it stands, Matt Harpring (for all of his faults) is going to be making over $6 million dollars a season, for the rest of his contract. I'd love to get him off the books, though I seriously doubt that would happen. Harpring appears to be ingrained into the culture of this team, and you know that Larry H. Miller is not going to trade him and his wife (a local physician, I think OB/GYN, but I'm not a stalker or anything) out of the Utah Jazz family. I can only hope for a reduction of his minutes per game (MPG) as the Jazz front office and coaches devise a much more domestic solution to (at least) the production issues as the years go by.

At some stage our young guns will need more playing time, why not at the expense of Harpring? He should be mentoring more now, while guys like Ronnie Brewer, Morris Almond, C.J. Miles (if still on the team), Kyle Korver (younger than Harpring) get more burn. If we wanted to really go crazy, and play some European 3/4 hybrid some of Harpring's minutes -- why not Andrei Kirilenko? He can play more than 30 mpg, he's a good defender (unlike Harpring), and he's making the max. Why not play him more and watch his stats (*cough* touches *cough*) and happiness increase? Additionally, if anyone forgot, AK-47 shot 38% from three last season. Empirically, he is improving still . . . but his mpg is too low to realize it in some ways.

The last thing I want to do is add more swingmen to our team, as it stands right now our core rotation will only increase in size as our younger guys get better. I think I have to see what Locke is suggesting here; however, it's just not the way that I would go.

Boki is interesting, but I'd rather play Brewer at the three for the 5-10 mpg that Harpring will eventually lose over the next 2 seasons.