Things to look for this season: Andrei Kirilenko

It's seems like it's Andrei Kirilenko day here at:All That Jazz . . . or at least it does if you read this rant (basically Part 1 of what to look for from Andrei this season).
	Blocking Yao Ming	Using hair Gel	Looking to dime

Speaking of which . . . what are the three things should we look for from AK-47 this season:

1. Role Play: Being the 4th or 5th option on offense with the starters and standing around watching other guys play with the ball didn't really work for Andrei. His stats suggest that he "can" be the same guy, but it's hard when he's playing only 24 mpg, and in the time he's playing he doesn't get to see the ball except on shots that he blocks. Being more involved with the ball as one of the major cogs on offense for the bench is going to help quite a bit. I saw this one move from this preseason that had me absolutely drooling. Millsap posted up on his man and got the ball from Knight. Andrei's man went over to help and Millsap picked up his dribble. Andrei cut from the perimeter towards the basket and Millsap found him. Andrei sucked in all the defenders as he had a clear path to the basket -- and instead of shooting it he kicked it out to the right corner where Korver was all alone. Naturally, Korver buried the three point shot. Last season our bench had two plays: the Harpring curl (sometimes used for Korver instead), and the turn over. Having Andrei play with the bench is going to make our bench so much more dynamic. If the starters can tread water on defense for long enough when Andrei sits then our team can be quite good -- especially with a 6th man who can basically play starter minutes, defend and give you 14.5/6/5/2/2 in that time.
2. Be a glue guy off the bench: Andrei explained that when he gets to watch the game develop he can take note of things that are happening right on the floor, and stuff that isn't going so right as well. When he comes in he can try to help fill the gap of whatever was missing. (Most likely it's going to be defense, but hey, call me a cynic) Coming off the bench is going to be really good for him as the 2nd quarter usually starts off as a time for Harpring to have the green light to shoot. Andrei's points were down the last few seasons because he just plan stopped shooting the ball. The last five seasons have gone from 11.9 fga as an All-Star to 10.2 fga, 10.6 fga, then 6 fga and last season 7.6 fga. I don't think Andrei needs to be shooting over 10 times a game, but when he shot around 9 times a game he ends up scoring 14 points or so. Supplanting Harpring at this juncture may allow him to shoot if a bit more. However, my concept of glue guy doesn't mean shooting the ball all the time -- it's just that being on the floor with less talented offensive players may mean that coach calls his number a bit more often.  Knowing Andrei, if Sloan drew up a play for him to shoot, he'd probably find a way to pass off the shot to someone else anyway. Still -- Andrei's versatility may work to everyone's advantage as a glue guy, instead of a guy who is more talented than Battier being forced into playing a Battier like role with the starters.
3. Expect the unexpected: This could mean a variety of things . . . I fully expect Andrei to throw some really crazy passes this season. Having him handle the ball more with the 2nd unit and pass to guys who he doesn't get to play with a lot is going to result in some really spectacular early season turn overs. This could also mean that Andrei -- him, and not the fans -- should expect the unexpected. Harpring is gingerly participating in shooting drills now, and as I mentioned previously, the main reason why AK is going to the bench is to replace the heady play of veteran shooter Matt Harpring. What happens when Harpring comes back? Jerry Sloan already talked about how Harpring doesn't need to participate in pre-season because he knows his role and what 'we' are trying to do here. What if the starting frontcourt gets clobbered on defense without AK watching their back? The whole AK as a super 6th man concept may end before the honeymoon period of having him anchor the 2nd unit does! We may see Andrei back in the starting line-up before we know it.

Personally I don't really care, after developing a massive migraine looking at over 250 games I can say that he just needs to play 35+ mpg to be awesome. The last two seasons he played 29 and 30 mpg. He also wasn't awesome. Three seasons ago he played 37 mpg, and got 15/8/4/3 and 1.5 steals per game. Five seasons ago he played 37 mpg and was an All-Star. Doesn't take a genius, or a 70 million year old coach, to figure it out.

Flashback Friday: Andrei back when he was AK-47

Once upon a time, there was a promising young forward who was all over the court, blocking shots, catching alley-oop passes and making crazy passes. Fast forward through a few injury plagued years, one trip to the All-Star game, and numerous role changes and we have a new incarnation of Andrei Kirilenko -- the dynamic pass first Point Forward springing to life off the bench to wreck havoc like the monster created out of the mind of Coach David Blatt. Unlike what some people think, Andrei's ego didn't explode by being 'benched', nor did the former MVP of Europe (2007) cry about it at all. His own team owner said that Andrei is all about winning, and will do whatever it takes to win. If coming off the bench is going to help the team win, he will do so. This isn't the Andrei is the 6th man article though, this is the Andrei as a player article . . .

A major criticism that I find to be very unfounded (and confounding) is that some people don't think Andrei plays with heart anymore; and that his statistically inferior recent seasons are bereft of desire. (If he didn't care why did he cry a few seasons ago about not being able to help the team?) They look at the stat differences from the good old days and now and they think that it's simply an effort issue. I looked at the stats, I looked at the stats harder than they did (I spent over two days looking over 258 games over the 2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 seasons). It's not an effort issue. It's a playing time and role issue.

A youngster	An All-Star	An MVP and Champion	Mr. Everything on D	A 6th man?

Sure, there are other factors at play, like the quality of the roster, the number of shots he takes, the shift from power forward to small forward and the like . . . but there is a very visceral consistency in his play over the last five seasons (his All-Star year till now) when you view his stats in games where he plays around the same number of minutes. Sure, his season averages look like they are going down, but Andrei is actually improving in some ways -- it's just that his minutes have gone all over the place the last few seasons, from 37 one season to under 30 the next. (Really, this happened -- 37.7 mpg in 2005-2006 and 29.3 mpg in 2006-2007.)

When he was an All-Star (and averaged over 37 mpg) back in 2003-2004 he was on a team without Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, or young guys like Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer. He was the only guy with real talent, and had to do a lot of everything. His season averages were (with rounding) 15.5 ppg, 8 rpg, 3 apg, 3 bpg and 2 spg -- all the while his points to FGA ratio was 1.31.

Last season, 2007-2008, on a team with Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, with younger players like Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer he played the three, instead of the four as an all-star. In games where he played more than 35 mpg (and he played in quite a few and in those games averaged 37 mpg, just like his All-Star season) he averaged 14.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg, 2 bpg and 2 spg. (again, rounded up and down accordingly)

	MPG	PPG	FGA	Points/FGA	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals
2003-2004	37	15.5	12	1.3	8	3	3	2
2007-2008	37	14.5	9.5	1.5	6	5	2	2
		-1	-2.5	+0.2	-2	+2	-1

What's the difference? He's not playing inside anymore (and he has more competition for boards and blocks) and ended up getting 2 less boards and 1 less block. Guys get less rebounds and blocks when they are defending the three point line instead of the paint. [Though this point is debatable...] He scored less, but he shot less (2.5 less FGA per game, and his points/FGA ratio was actually higher -- 1.5 to 1.3 when he was an All-Star) as well. The only other difference was that he got 2 more APG.

I could (if I wanted to), present the full breakdown from each season, and each different playing time block (all games, only games where he played 30+ mpg, only games where he played 35+ mpg, only games where he played 38+ mpg, or only games where he played 40+ mpg) . . . but I don't need to belabor the point here. Every season for every playing time block since his all-star season his AVERAGE in points / FGA has been between 1.4 and 1.5. His rebounds have been between 6 and 8. His blocks between 2 and 3, his steals between 1.5 and 2, and his points between 13 ppg and 16 ppg. [If you've been following along, those are the same numbers that he has now when playing those many minutes]

His teammates make a little bit of difference, as does his role -- but the major variable in his production is time. Not between 35 mpg and 38 mpg . . . but between playing 35 mpg and playing less than that. (It's a bigger jump than between playing 30 mpg and less than 30 mpg surprisingly!)

Long story short, Andrei isn't a worse player. He's shooting less (he used to shoot it 12 times a game, the season where he cried he shot it 6 times a game and was playing 8 mpg less); and more than anything else -- he is playing much less than he used to. When he gets to play the same amount of time as he used to, he produces similar statistical results. (Again, this is not opinion, I worked it out between season stats, and the stats for the past 5 years where he played 30+ mpg, 35+ mpg, 38+ mpg and 40+ mpg . . . but he's not going to get a shot to average 38 mpg over a season, so basically I just did more work than I needed to.)

He's the same guy, he just has an insanely high contract that he could never justify, especially when his coach changes around what position he plays, or how many minutes he gets to play. He shouldn't be playing 30 mpg, especially not when a lot of that time on the floor has him just watching other guys handle the ball and shoot. But I'm getting ahead of myself here . . .

If he gets enough time he has shown that even with a stacked roster, and on a winning team, he can get crazy stats. Or at least, stats that are very similar to what he used to put up in his All-Star year. He's a consistent producer when he gets consistent minutes. He's actually gotten better as a distributor over the years.

I wonder why some people still think that he's gotten so much worse? Just because his Coach doesn't play him enough minutes? That's a poor reason.

Fi-nal-ee . . . It's haa-ped . . . to me!

CeCe Peniston (not to be confused with Carlos' boss, CeCe Boozer) is overjoyed by the news of Jerry Sloan calling out Kosta Koufos for shooting the damn ball so much. I must admit that I'm happy about it too. Kosta shoots the ball so damn much -- and the media never criticizes him for this (instead they heap insane amounts of love upon him, everything from him being an NBA ready talent to being the #2 center or power forward on the roster) -- that it has forced me into siding with the underdog Fesenko out of the two prospects.

Hopefully Kosta's last game of offensive quantity (5 FGA) over quality (0 FGM) will FI-NAL-EE open up the floodgates of criticism. DJ and PK (morning sports talk radio personalities on 1320 KFAN) even started to hint that (through quoting Sloan), perhaps, Kosta wasn't going to be an All-Star this season. Quoted in the Deseret News today, Sloan had this to say:

"Now Koufos is a little different story. I don't know what that was. He shot it every time he touched [the ball] . . . [When asked if Kosta had a green light to shoot he replied that] He's got a green light to go rebound. He's got a green light to pick up loose balls, and those things that young guys should do when they step out on the floor . . . he can shoot the ball, and that's one of his strengths. When he's been open, he's probably been told to shoot it (previously). But we'd like for him to fake to the other guys once in a while, just to let them known they're in the same game." (Jerry Sloan, 2008, via Desert News)

Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images	CeCe Peniston "Finally" [3:58], (thanks SuperNudel!)not officially a song about the media (and Jazz Coaches) recognizing that Kosta Koufos isn't the best thing since sliced bread, and that he shoots the ball way too much for a rookie.

Kosta's cumulative shooting stats have been unimpressive. I know, I have it all on a spreadsheet. All of his professional experience exists as a pretty small sample size . . . 8 games . . . but I can only work with what I have, right? Koufos was purported to be some sort of offensive stud -- or at the very least, NBA ready on offense. (not entirely unlike Mehmet Okur) He shoots a bad percentage, and shoots the ball a lot. Which is only compounded by the fact that he shoots a bad percentage. Which looks even worse because he shoots the ball a lot. Sound like I'm repeating myself? I think I am, but so far no one has been listening.

Mr.Koufos has shot the ball 42 times in the Rocky Mountain Review. So far he has shot the ball 6 times in 2008-2009 Preseason games. That's a total of 48 times. Out of those 48 times, how many has he actually made? 17. What's that as a percentage? 35.4 fg -- which is pretty shabby if he was drafted partly because he was a good offensive player.

Shooting the ball 48 times in 8 games doesn't look that bad though -- that's only shooting the ball 6 times per game. The problem is how often he plays. He played 96:40 minutes in the RMR, and so far has played around 11 minutes in the Preseason. That's around 107:40 total minutes. Right now I'm going to show you his ratio of shots taken and minutes played. This is simply 48 shots : 107:40 mins = 1 shot : x How often does he shoot the ball, then? Once every 2.23 minutes. That is a very high rate for someone who shoots poorly. Carlos Boozer, who last season (2007-2008) scored over 21 ppg (at 55 fg%) shot the ball once every 2.18 minutes (1297 shots in 2827 minutes). What's the difference between 0.05 minutes? That's 3 seconds. Does Kosta Koufos, a 19 year old rookie who shoots the ball 35 fg%, NEED to be shooting the ball 3 seconds less frequently than a two time All-Star and two time Olympian who is the primary scoring option of the team -- a guy who shoots 20% better?

Kosta shoots it over Greg Oden -- obviously a necessary shot to take! Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images

Absolutely not.

Obviously the main criticism of my point of view will be that RMR stats shouldn't count, and that his playing in some games shouldn't either -- because of how little he has been playing. Okay, well, let's get rid of the game against the Lakers where he only played 2 minutes. That means that he shot the ball 47 times in 105:40 total minutes, instead of 48 in 107:40. That he made 16 shots, instead of 17. And that he played in 7 games, and not 8. This results, ultimately, in shooting the ball once every 2.24 (as opposed to 2.23) at the whopping proficiency of 34.0 fg%. [And shooting the ball 6.7 times a game, and not 6]

Don't get me wrong, I like the kid. I think he'll be a pro in this league and play (barring injuries) at least as long as a guy like Pat Garrity or Michael Doleac. (Hopefully with a better looking career, though) Let's just slow down the hype and media love for a while, okay guys? He's not already better than Jarron Collins and Kyrylo Fesenko ('cept maybe in ft% and shooting range, where he kills those guys). He's not the back-up center, and he's definitely NOT the back-up power forward. He's going to need seasoning in the NBA-DL this next season. He'll end up shooting better, having a better shot selection, and be well on his way towards having a solid rookie season as a teen in the NBA playing on a contender. (That's to say, watching older guys play while he runs around in the NBA D-League)

I'm just happy that people are finally recognizing his fault. Sorry, CeCe and I are BOTH happy that people see these faults, and FI-NAL-EE it's happening to us . . . that we're not the only ones repeating ourselves about the empirically obvious problem of a 19 year old rookie who shoots 35 fg% shooting the ball as much as our All-Star and scoring meal ticket Carlos Boozer.