Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)

Fi-nal-ee . . . It's haa-ped . . . to me!

CeCe Peniston (not to be confused with Carlos' boss, CeCe Boozer) is overjoyed by the news of Jerry Sloan calling out Kosta Koufos for shooting the damn ball so much. I must admit that I'm happy about it too. Kosta shoots the ball so damn much -- and the media never criticizes him for this (instead they heap insane amounts of love upon him, everything from him being an NBA ready talent to being the #2 center or power forward on the roster) -- that it has forced me into siding with the underdog Fesenko out of the two prospects.

Hopefully Kosta's last game of offensive quantity (5 FGA) over quality (0 FGM) will FI-NAL-EE open up the floodgates of criticism. DJ and PK (morning sports talk radio personalities on 1320 KFAN) even started to hint that (through quoting Sloan), perhaps, Kosta wasn't going to be an All-Star this season. Quoted in the Deseret News today, Sloan had this to say:

"Now Koufos is a little different story. I don't know what that was. He shot it every time he touched [the ball] . . . [When asked if Kosta had a green light to shoot he replied that] He's got a green light to go rebound. He's got a green light to pick up loose balls, and those things that young guys should do when they step out on the floor . . . he can shoot the ball, and that's one of his strengths. When he's been open, he's probably been told to shoot it (previously). But we'd like for him to fake to the other guys once in a while, just to let them known they're in the same game." (Jerry Sloan, 2008, via Desert News)

Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images	CeCe Peniston "Finally" [3:58], (thanks SuperNudel!)not officially a song about the media (and Jazz Coaches) recognizing that Kosta Koufos isn't the best thing since sliced bread, and that he shoots the ball way too much for a rookie.

Kosta's cumulative shooting stats have been unimpressive. I know, I have it all on a spreadsheet. All of his professional experience exists as a pretty small sample size . . . 8 games . . . but I can only work with what I have, right? Koufos was purported to be some sort of offensive stud -- or at the very least, NBA ready on offense. (not entirely unlike Mehmet Okur) He shoots a bad percentage, and shoots the ball a lot. Which is only compounded by the fact that he shoots a bad percentage. Which looks even worse because he shoots the ball a lot. Sound like I'm repeating myself? I think I am, but so far no one has been listening.

Mr.Koufos has shot the ball 42 times in the Rocky Mountain Review. So far he has shot the ball 6 times in 2008-2009 Preseason games. That's a total of 48 times. Out of those 48 times, how many has he actually made? 17. What's that as a percentage? 35.4 fg -- which is pretty shabby if he was drafted partly because he was a good offensive player.

Shooting the ball 48 times in 8 games doesn't look that bad though -- that's only shooting the ball 6 times per game. The problem is how often he plays. He played 96:40 minutes in the RMR, and so far has played around 11 minutes in the Preseason. That's around 107:40 total minutes. Right now I'm going to show you his ratio of shots taken and minutes played. This is simply 48 shots : 107:40 mins = 1 shot : x How often does he shoot the ball, then? Once every 2.23 minutes. That is a very high rate for someone who shoots poorly. Carlos Boozer, who last season (2007-2008) scored over 21 ppg (at 55 fg%) shot the ball once every 2.18 minutes (1297 shots in 2827 minutes). What's the difference between 0.05 minutes? That's 3 seconds. Does Kosta Koufos, a 19 year old rookie who shoots the ball 35 fg%, NEED to be shooting the ball 3 seconds less frequently than a two time All-Star and two time Olympian who is the primary scoring option of the team -- a guy who shoots 20% better?

Kosta shoots it over Greg Oden -- obviously a necessary shot to take! Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images

Absolutely not.

Obviously the main criticism of my point of view will be that RMR stats shouldn't count, and that his playing in some games shouldn't either -- because of how little he has been playing. Okay, well, let's get rid of the game against the Lakers where he only played 2 minutes. That means that he shot the ball 47 times in 105:40 total minutes, instead of 48 in 107:40. That he made 16 shots, instead of 17. And that he played in 7 games, and not 8. This results, ultimately, in shooting the ball once every 2.24 (as opposed to 2.23) at the whopping proficiency of 34.0 fg%. [And shooting the ball 6.7 times a game, and not 6]

Don't get me wrong, I like the kid. I think he'll be a pro in this league and play (barring injuries) at least as long as a guy like Pat Garrity or Michael Doleac. (Hopefully with a better looking career, though) Let's just slow down the hype and media love for a while, okay guys? He's not already better than Jarron Collins and Kyrylo Fesenko ('cept maybe in ft% and shooting range, where he kills those guys). He's not the back-up center, and he's definitely NOT the back-up power forward. He's going to need seasoning in the NBA-DL this next season. He'll end up shooting better, having a better shot selection, and be well on his way towards having a solid rookie season as a teen in the NBA playing on a contender. (That's to say, watching older guys play while he runs around in the NBA D-League)

I'm just happy that people are finally recognizing his fault. Sorry, CeCe and I are BOTH happy that people see these faults, and FI-NAL-EE it's happening to us . . . that we're not the only ones repeating ourselves about the empirically obvious problem of a 19 year old rookie who shoots 35 fg% shooting the ball as much as our All-Star and scoring meal ticket Carlos Boozer.