Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer 6th best Backcourt in NBA ?

There are some really good tandems out there in the NBA right now. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobili along with Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen obviously comprise championship caliber backcourts. Mike Bibby paired up with Joe Johnson causes all kinds of trouble for defenders – similarly Steve Nash and Jason Richardson can flat out make defenders look silly. Even hypothetically amazing backcourts will assemble this season, like in Portland with Andre Miller and Brandon Roy, and down in Orlando with Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter. These are all great backcourts in paper, but just where does Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer rank among them? Justin DeFeo, of Sir Charles in Charge, states that the Jazz tandem is clearly a Top 10 backcourt in the league – 6th specifically – and one where both players “compliment each other well,” (DeFeo, 2009, ¶13). He continues to say that:

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Williams is the do it all point guard and has the ball in his hands often, so he needs to be paired with a shooting guard who can do other things (defend, rebound) and create opportunities for himself without the ball (steals, loose balls, offensive rebounds) and thats (sic) the type of game Brewer has.

This is high praise, and I fully appreciate someone else noticing that while Deron isn’t a classic point guard, and Brewer surely is not a classic shooting guard (isn’t he just a SF who defends the other teams’ best perimeter scorer?), that together they are a pretty good team. Let’s go over some of the ways in which they do compliment each other:

Offense:

Deron dominates the ball on offense. Some teams have some sort of ball-sharing provision between the PG and the SG (like how Brandon Roy basically had to do everything himself in Portland). This has never been the case in Utah, not in Stockton’s time, and not now. Deron has a very solid handle on the ball and is able to maneuver himself into the lane with or without help from screens. Williams does this not with simple blinding speed, or a series of picks from teammates, he uses power and finesse to go from point A to point B, going over any and all terrain in the process. He has all the moves, and can get into the lane whenever he wants. (Essentially, he’s a swashbuckler with a basketball in his hands) He’s not just a PG who will bring the ball up the floor, hang out at the three point line, and pass the ball to someone to start a play. Deron’s penetration allows for defenders to shift their attention from the man they are guarding to Deron Williams (who is a scoring threat in the lane). This shifted attention allows for guys who move well without the ball to find open spots (often in their defender’s blindspots) and be in scoring position. If Deron Williams is daring swashbuckler who can move with a quickness and body control that belie his physique then Ronnie Brewer is the stealthy assassin who moves in the shadows, unaccounted for, with muscles tensed up for a finishing strike. It happens again, and again and again. Ideally, a drive and dish PG would be paired with a guy who had a reliable outside shot – but at best, a three pointer is a 40% success rate, while dunks are, generally speaking, much, much more effective.

Deron is a capable three point shooter – though his percentage has been a roller coaster his entire NBA career (42%, then 32%, then 40%, then 31%), and if he’s the only one of the two with an outside shot you can clearly see a deficiency in that department for this backcourt tandem. (By comparison, LA, Orlando, Atlanta and a few other teams on DeFeo’s list are replete with guys who can absolutely bomb from outside)

This group is just as adept in halfcourt sets as they are on the break. Utah produces a lot of deflections and Brewer starts as many breaks (with his natural quickness and 6’11 wingspan) as he is capable of finishing (with his 42” vertical). Deron hardly ever makes the wrong decision on who to pass to, and the two (naturally) hook up for Alley-Oops more frequently than any Utah tandem since Mark Jackson played here. Offensively, the two are nearly a match made in heaven.

Defense:

If Deron is the leader on Offense, Ronnie is the leader on Defense. Brewer starts the game off checking the other teams’ best scoring wing – regardless if he is a shooter or slasher or whatever. Ronnie gets the call until AK gets off the bench. If the last few playoffs are an indication – few players play better man defense (without fouling) on Kobe Bryant than Brewer does. In no way am I suggesting that Brewer shuts Kobe down, I’m just saying that he plays good man defense. Many times I’ve seen Kobe take shots that absolutely could not have been defended better without the aid of being allowed to do Bruce Bowen style fouling, and still make them over Ronnie. Kobe just makes amazing shots – and he’s had quite a few against Brewer. Brewer is more than just a speed bump on defense. His long arms, quickness and penchant for playing the passing lanes made him one of the league leaders in steals last season. He’s long enough, with good enough hops that I would expect him to get more ‘from behind’ LeBron style blocks this season though. While Brewer is a physical freak, his defensive instincts lead the way – and that’s usually towards pressuring the other team into making a mistake.

Deron does not get all the flashy steals that Brewer does, but he is quick enough on defense to stay with faster ball handlers, and just big and physical enough to discourage them from driving too much. (Just look at how the, honestly, best PG in the NBA, Chris Paul, is so taken out of his game whenever he plays Deron. CP3 owns everyone, and he is rightfully the best PG in the league right now. Deron is just the perfect storm on defense to give him trouble, and good enough on offense to tire him out there) If the first foundation for team defense is to slow down the other team’s ball handler / forward progression, then it’s obvious that Deron Williams is a very solid defender.

Together they comprise a physical, long defensive backcourt. Brewer is 6’7 with the previously mentioned 6’11 wingspan and the quickness of a man much smaller than he. Deron is a 6’3 point guard who was a wrestler in high school and deceptively quick. (check out his draft combine scores, you’ll be surprised) If anything, I think that they are better on defense than they are on offense!

What do the Stats Say:

I’m a stats junkie. So this is important to me. Also, I guess I’m debuting my new stats format. If you want to know about what some of these things are, you can always read my treatise on my own created stats. If you don’t want to, just wait for the analysis that will appear below.

Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer

First of all, for those of you following along at home, I have changed the GO Rating, and expect a new post about the New formula shortly. What you need to know about it is what these scores mean. The GO Rating incorporates all possible statistically tracked outcomes on offense, hence the full name of “Gestalt Offense”. The GO Rating is in light blue, all the things in the light blue cell background are my own invented stats. I think they better round out what you see. Anyway . . . what is a good GO Rating? I depends on what you are looking for. If you are a point guard it’s hard to be upset if you get a rating in the 130’s. Magic Johnson’s regular season career totals calculate to a GO Rating of 138.784. Allen Iverson’s GO Rating for the same category (career regular season stats) is 134.883. Deron gets 135.701 for his work last season – though shortened by injury, arguably his best season ever. As a further point of reference, Gary Payton’s career GO Rating is 88.882, that’s almost 50 points lower than Deron. Brewer’s rating is much lower, but that’s due to a few major factors. Firstly, wing players who do not take many shots (see shooting frequency, the higher the number the more time it takes to get a shot off) hardly ever do well. Scottie Pippen’s GO Rating for his career regular season stats stands at only 71.431. As solid as Pip was offensively, Brewer is nearly there in his 3rd season in the NBA. That’s not too shabby.

Again, the stats don’t lie when they show how poorly they are as a team when it comes to three point shooting. They make up for it with stellar eField Goal percentages (which I think are more important than just FG% and 3PT%). They both shoot better than average, when it comes to their shooting worth (average being 1.2). Offensively they are very competent getting to the line a combined 10 times a game and averaging over 30 points between the two, while dishing the ball with a good Assists to Turn over ratio. Offensively they put up quite solid stats, and I feel like they are even better defensively. Of course, defensive stats are pretty much useless, so take these with a grain of salt. (if you want more on that rant, read my treatise, linked above)

These guys don’t usually get called for fouls, so that’s pretty good. What is even better is that both of them come out on the positive side of their defensive gambling – Brewer especially makes very smart gambles on defense: effectively getting 2 steals for each fouls he commits. If he was to gamble defensively at that rate he would foul out with nearly 8 steals a game. (For those watching him closely know that he got 6 steals in a recent USA Select team scrimmage) Deron still manages over a steal per game as well, and his primary duty is to man up on his guy, and not actually go for steals. Neither of them block worth a damn – though Brewer should get more in my opinion. Both of their pure hustle ratings clearly fall below that of the Dream Team members, but exist within an acceptable range for starters in today’s NBA. These defensive statistics are not overwhelming – but I don’t put much stock in defensive stats at all. The best defense causes no effect on an individual’s boxscore; if you defend a guy so well that he takes shot he can’t make then you get nothing, except the satisfaction of playing good defense. These two guys are good defensive players – but Brewer gambles more and gets more steals – and it shows.

Conclusion:

Some statistics are worth more than others, and I’d put my money on the offensive ones actually relating to actually being good at playing. That said, Deron and Ronnie are a better defensive tandem than offensively, where their weaknesses are more exposed. (Weaknesses being that neither of them shot over 35% from three last year; as a unit they do not produce much from deep per game; they both do not jack up shots frequently (jacking up shots gives you a better Shooting Frequency and GO Rating for some reason); and so forth) Other guard tandems will score more points per game, and probably get to the free throw line more times per game. There will always be a better offensive tandem around. Collectively Ronnie and Deron make up a better defensive force, and have the talent and ability to get better (they are both closer to 20 than 30 – guys like Kobe, Fish, Vince, Nash, J-Kidd and others are getting up there and aren’t going to be as good in the next few seasons). They can be a Top 5 starting backcourt in the NBA, but they just aren’t quite there yet. I agree with DeFeo’s rankings and thank him for posting this in the first place!

P.S. Thanks to J.E.Skeets for the Ball Don’t Lie link directing me to DeFeo’s post!

Who else is sick with the Great Hype surrounding Andrew “Bust”num?

If you’ve ever wandered onto an LA Lakers blog, message board, or listened to a nationally broadcasted game by Mike “Fellatio for the Lakers 24/7” Tirico then you’ll know, with complete certainty, that Andrew Bynum is one of the best centers in the league, and will without giving any prior notice, become the next best center in the league and join the pantheon of great bigmen. He will rightfully sit alongside Wilt, Russell and Kareem while using Ewing, Robinson and O’Neal as foot rests. The third footrest will be necessary because of how great and grand his male organ must be – as he has been photographed at the Playboy mansion (who cares) and is curiously linked to Rihanna right now. (who? exactly.)

As impressive as his potential appears, and as great as his off-court life may or may not be (I’d rather hang out at the Acharya mansion any day of the week) – I’m less than impressed with him as a player. I’m even less impressed when I actually look at his accomplishments as a player in the playoffs (aka. when it counts). Furthermore, I’m pretty much sick to death by the hype that he has received from casual fans, homer fans, and the media alike. Now, this isn’t meant to trash the hopes of the future of the Lakers at all – I strive to temper the expectations of him a little bit. For his sake, and ours.

My brother is the most rational Lakers fan I know, he is passionate, but not completely under the spell that countless others are on the internet. He’s more concerned with consistent play, rebounding and solid defense from all of the Lakers and does not have the time to worry about if Bynum is going to be the next Kareem – he’s worried about right now. If I was a Lakers fan I wouldn’t be worried about right now – you guys will trounce Denver on your way to the NBA Finals (where anything can happen). I would, on the other hand, be worried about the past – specifically Bynum’s past.

He’s 21 years old right now and was drafted as a 17 year old. What do we know about him that should really count? How about the fact that he had an injury ruined high school career (leg/knee injury), and in the NBA has had two more leg/knee injuries in his young career. He’s tall, but not nearly as super athletic and fit as freaks like Dwight Howard or Amare Stoudemire are – I don’t expect him to be physically made of the same stuff as those guys are. When you get over 7 feet tall, any injuries to your lower body seriously limit how reliable you can be, regardless of how much work one may put on their upper bodies. (You’re only as strong as your base is – look at Yao Ming, who has just a storied lower body injury history as Bynum, he misses lots of games every year, and is never 100% due to the strain his body puts on his lower body) Amare had two career ending (had this been the 80’s/90’s) knee injuries, but has come back due to a great work ethic. Bynum puts women on his shoulders during rehab. I wouldn’t be making a huge leap by suggesting that Bynum may have a career that features a number of injuries to his lower body, not unlike Yao Ming – as opposed to being virtual injury free like Dwight Howard. But I have no crystal ball, I’m just going on the fact that he’s a big guy with a history of lower body injuries who was injury prone as a teen and only looks to put an increasingly large strain on those same joints as his ages and increases mass.

That’s not very empirical though, it’s just an assumed health arc based on his body type, job, apparent work ethic, how healthy other big guys his size have been and medical history. What is empirical, on the other hand, is to dig deep and look at stats. I love stats. Stats are flawed, as I’ve explained on this blog before, but they still give a pretty good indication of on court production. (After all, that’s what counts, points, rebounds, blocks, assists, steals, turn overs and fouls, right?)

After this last game against the Houston Rockets the total number of playoff games that Bynum has participated in stands at 18. These 18 games have taken him from 2005-2006 till now to amass. In that time he has been brought along slowly – thanks to the fact that he doesn’t need to be useful when he’s so far down the pecking order behind at least 4 other guys. That said, his production does not appear to be indicative of him joining the pantheon of great bigmen any decade soon. I want to look at his stats in the playoffs and see the promise that appears to be there (and only appears in regular season games against bad teams sandwiched between injuries). As a point of reference I looked at Patrick Ewing’s first 19 games (why not 18? wanted to complete that one series to make it an even number of playoff off series for the two) in the playoffs. Ewing was a great center, but never will he be called the best of his generation, and thus, not up for entry into the pantheon of greatest bigmen ever (though the media has already reserved a spot there for Bynum).

Bynum’s first 18 Playoff games, and how they stack up:

Ewing creams Bynum statistically. And Ewing played in a time where big guys weren’t bailed out with foul shots, and played against much better competition. Bynum played against the Phoenix Suns, twice anchored in the paint by Frenchman Boris Diaw; the injury depleted Utah Jazz that was forced to start Jarron Collins; and the Houston Rockets, who during the course of the series, lost Yao Ming to injury a little more than 2 games in – and had to turn to a rotation of Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry and Luis Scola to battle LA’s 7 footers. Bynum gets killed – just look at the stats.

Alas, he is immune to any criticism for a great rebuttal exists: Ewing had much more experience from being a guy who actually went to college, won a National Title; and also played in the NBA for a few seasons before making the playoffs. All this is true, but nothing prevented Bynum from going to college himself – if he was really interested in experience. That said, I also took a chance to look at another young bigman, and saw how he faced the NBA pressure. David Robinson did manage to make the playoffs as a rookie (he led his team there, unlike Bynum who did his best to stay out of Kobe’s way). David Robinson is far from my favorite player in the world – but he also creams Bynum’s numbers when you take out experience and look just at Bynum’s FIRST FOUR SEASONS against David’s ROOKIE season.

Let’s not forget that David had to go to war against Joe Barry Carroll and the plethora of tough guys in the paint that Portland sported back when David was a rookie. Bynum, with 4 years of experience in the NBA, has yet to face anything like that in the NBA playoffs – and his numbers are completely pathetic.

Ewing: 22.1 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 2.37 bpg

Robinson: 24.4 ppg, 12.00 rpg, 4.00 bpg

Bynum: 4.83 ppg, 3.78 rpg, 0.67 bpg

Obviously the data is heavily skewed against poor, young Bynum. His first few playoff sorties were short and he was inexperienced. Obviously the stats are going to go against him when you include some of his early games. The Bynum of today is a beast though! Look at Bynum’s numbers from just his 4th season in the playoffs against other greats and you’ll see! You’ll all see!

Okay, let’s do that then.

Bynum’s Playoff stats from his 4th season, and how those stats stack up:

Bynum’s numbers improve very slightly, he ups his ppg from 4.83 to 5.58, his free throw percentage from 62.96% to 76.47% and he swats almost 0.2 more blocks per game. Still not impressed. He’s a far cry from, let’s just randomly say, Hakeem Olajuwon. In the Dream’s 4th NBA season he happened to tear the NBA playoff’s a new one with his scoring -- 37.5 ppg (57.14 fg%, 88.37 ft%); rebounding – 16.75 rpg; and all around game – 2.75 bpg, 1.75 apg, 2.25 spg.

Not only did Hakeem obliterate Bynum’s pitiful offensive output by a magnitude nearing 7x, but absolutely owned him all over the boxscore. He also did it against much tougher competition as well.

Heck, Bynum is so far from being impressive that Greg Ostertag’s fourth year playoff stats could (and do) give Bynum’s fourth year playoff stats a run for their money. It’s horrible to say, but really Lakers fans (and media, or is that redundant?) – take a look and weep.

Bynum is a much better offensive player than Ostertag (is this even saying anything?), but Ostertag owns Bynum when it comes to rebounds and blocks. Greg even managed to out-assist Bynum and made less mistakes (as seen in less turn overs and fouls per game).

What’s worse, the fact that Bynum just got his lunch handed to him by Ostertag; or the fact that Ostertag was doing this against super duper vets and talented players like Vlade, Arvydas, Dale Davis and Rasheed (when Ostertag was a 4th year player) – and looking better than media adored Bynum going up against Chuck Hayes and the guy who was behind Ostertag on the depth chart?

Furthermore, Bynum’s had 5 scoreless games in the playoffs, out of 18. And he’s scored less than 5 points 11 times out of 18. Ouch.

Take a look at Hakeem’s 37.5 ppg average again. Ouch.

Of course, there HAS to be a rebuttal for this . . . no way can Bynum been so far behind Hakeem at the same stage of NBA experience, and yet so close to NBA laughingstock Greg Ostertag . . . right?  . . . .right? Don’t worry Lakers fans, of course there is . . . forget about NBA experience, that’s a flawed concept. Let’s not forget that Hakeem and Greg both played college ball (like Ewing and Robinson did) . . . Bynum didn’t play college. Look at how young he is! He’s only 21! Surely when you take that into account it makes up for 32 ppg (in the case of Hakeem), or nearly a block and a half (in the case of Ostertag)!!!

Okay, let’s take at a look at that. Try me.

Bynum’s Playoff stats as a 21 year old, and how those stats stack up against another 21 year old:

Bynum is a very brittle 21 year old who doesn’t have to do anything, and his team makes it to the NBA Finals. I’m not lying, the Lakers did that last season. That said, Bynum is a force of nature, and the future of the center position in the NBA. His 21 year old production is unrivaled. Right? Wrong. Take a look at this guy, and what he did in the playoffs at the tender age of 21 (his 2nd season in the L, not his 4th like Bynum). I just have one hyphenated word to describe this: Shaq-Attaq.

A lot of the same Lakers fans who champion Bynum marginalize how great Shaq was. I can clearly see why Kobe went out of his way to suggest that Bynum needed to be traded – because Kobe knew how good Shaq was. The difference between the two is quite telling when you look at these two centers at the age of 21, Bynum in his 4th season and Shaq in his 2nd.

The difference between the two was almost 15 points, 10 rebounds and over 2 blocks and almost 2 assists . . . in favor of the 2nd year player.

That’s a huge difference.

The difference between being called one of the best bigmen of all time, and being called a bust.

Bynum was a lotto pick man, and aside from his inspired dirty play in injuring two guys this season, and being afraid of Fesenko in the paint, he’s done nothing to earn the high praise that’s heaped on him. And he’s done nothing to make me feel like giving him any props.

His current playoff run isn’t over yet, and he’s got one, most likely two more playoff series to make his 2008-2009 playoffs slightly more memorable than his complete no-show in the 2007-2008 playoffs.

I’m taking it easy on Bynum here by comparing him to guys that he may yet one-day reach . . . even if it doesn’t seem like it. I could really try to down him if I wanted by comparing him to his contemporaries who are out-playing him right now. For example take Dwight Howard -- in his first 14 playoff games: 17.86 ppg (57.23 fg%, 51.72 ft%), 15.5 rpg, 2.71 bpg, 1.14 apg, 0.714 spg . . . those numbers are way better than Bynum’s. Also better are Dwight’s numbers as a 21 year old and Dwight’s numbers in his 4th NBA season.

If I really wanted to be a dick I’d mention that Dwight also has 3 less leg injuries. I’m not a dick though, so I’m not going to mention that.

 

 

What did we learn?

What did we learn? Well, for starters we learned that Andrew Bynum’s playoff performances leave much to be desired. His first 18 games in the playoffs pales in comparison to Ewing’s numbers over the same situations – and Ewing played against much better defensive clubs like Michael’s Bulls and the Bad Boy Pistons. We learned that David Robinson’s rookie season playoff numbers invalidates the argument that Bynum’s rookie numbers shouldn’t count. We also learned that Hakeem’s numbers as a fourth year player completely eclipse Bynum’s as a 4th year player. I didn’t even have to look up 2nd tier NBA centers like Rik Smits at all after I found out that at the same level of NBA experience that Greg Ostertag’s playoff performance was a wash with that of Bynum’s. Lastly, we learned that Bynum can’t even hide behind his age as an excuse for how poor his performances have been – as Shaq as a 21 year old eats Bynum up. Ultimately, we learned that it’s a bit too premature to call Bynum anything other than a bust at this stage. He’s much closer to Ostertag, albeit one who rebounds and blocks less, and fouls and turns the ball over more, than he is to being one of the greatest bigmen of all time – let alone in his own generation.

After all, Dwight’s numbers at each break down (first x number of games, 4th NBA season, and at age 21) are vastly superior to Bynum’s. Oh yeah, also Bynum has a history of injury problems to the same parts of his body and young guys who sustain so many injuries in short succession tend to have injury plagued careers. Yeah, I wasn’t supposed to mention that again . . . I guess I am a dick after all.

Bynum doesn’t deserve his hype until he does something. Something other than sucking when it counts, that is.

If you liked the stat breakdown, and would like a full version at full resolution, click on the image below. I dunno, maybe you are just into making Bynum look silly . . . or want a stat heavy window’s desktop wallpaper . . . or both? Go nuts!

Forward March!

The Utah Jazz finished February with their best record in franchise history: 10-1. It was a spectacular month filled with victories over the likes of the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, New Orleans Hornets and playoff teams from both conferences. As good as February was, January was a travesty where the Jazz limped to a 7-8 record. There are only 23 games left in the regular schedule -- and only 23 games left for the Jazz to make any solid moves up in the standings. March sees the Jazz playing in 15 games, and April has the Jazz playing in 8 regular season games. They are on the road 14 times, and at home only 9 times.

The major problem I can see, when looking over the schedule, is that fatigue is really going to set in late. Hopefully this is the case with all of the teams in the running for the playoffs -- but the Jazz have a particularly tough task. First of all, there's another extended Eastern Conference road trip that needs to happen, one that will span 8 days, and have the Jazz playing 5 times. (we already know how poor the Jazz are on the road, and how poor they are against the East . . .) The Jazz will face off against Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta, Miami and Orlando. The games against Atlanta and Orlando are both the 2nd night of back to back sets; furthermore, the game against Atlanta would be the 3rd game in 4 nights. If the Jazz win three out of those five games I'll be bouncing off the walls.

The second, and perhaps larger, problem is the cumulative effect of all of these games. The Jazz play 8 back to back sets still. (15 of our last 23 games are either the first or second game of a back to back set, or 70%) If that was not enough, 9 of these last 23 games will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Jazz. (@ Atlanta, vs. Washington, @ Portland, @ Denver, vs. Minnesota, @ New Orleans, vs. Golden State, vs. LA Clippers, @ LA Lakers) Do any of those look like important games to win? I see a few there.

The largest obstacle will be around the end of March and the beginning of April where the Jazz will play Houston at home, then the next night fly to Phoenix to take on the Suns. Two days later the Jazz face the Suns at home. I don't know the exact injury situation with Phoenix, but as far as I can tell, they will either be in full tank mode, or swing for the fences mode. The next week the Jazz will face the Knicks at home, then fly the next night to play the Blazers -- one of the previously mentioned 3rd game in 4 nights sets. This will be the last game of March, and it goes all downhill from there. The Jazz then fly over to Denver to play the first game of a back to back set, which is also the 3rd game in 4 nights, and yes, the 5th game in 6 nights. How often do you get the 5th game in 7 nights? Very rarely, but only when you play a game the very next night, at home against Minnesota, that's the second night of a back to back, and ultimately, the 6th game in 7 nights. Yes, this is how the Jazz start off April -- playing 6 times in a week, with one of our last remaining 'gimmie' games at home against a non-playoff team being scheduled at the worst possible time. [EDIT: This is incorrect, the Jazz game vs. the Timberwolves will be the 5th game in 7 nights, not 6th in 7]

To add insult to injury, the Jazz play again, on the road in New Orleans on that Sunday, a single game that does not look too hard, but will be the 3rd game in 4 nights, and the 4th game in 6 games, 5th game in 7. The Jazz will have a needed two day rest, and then finish the last 5 games of the seasons @ Dallas, @ San Antonio, vs. Golden State (2nd game in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights), vs. the LA Clippers (3rd game in 4 nights), and then on the road to face the LA Lakers (2nd night in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights).

I really pray that this is the case for all teams right now, and that everyone will be equally tired to finish the season. The Jazz play against a Top 10 team in the Western Conference 13 times (out of 15 remaining Western Conference games) to finish the season. The Jazz are shaky on the road . . . hopefully Boozer will be full of energy from that mid-season holiday he took.

Just because I am insane, here it all is in chart form:

	Game	Opponent	Location	Date	Conf.	Playoff Team	Part of B2B Set?	Other:
March	1	Golden State	Road	March 1	West		2nd game
	2	Houston	Home	March 4	West	Yes		Season series 0-2
	3	Denver	Home	March 6	West	Yes		Season series 1-1
	4	Toronto	Road	March 8	East
	5	Indiana	Road	March 10	East		1st game
	6	Atlanta	Road	March 11	East	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
	7	Miami	Road	March 14	East	Yes	1st game
	8	Orlando	Road	March 15	East	Yes	2nd game
	9	Washington	Home	March 17	East			3rd game in 4
	10	Oklahoma City	Road	March 20	West
	11	Houston	Home	March 24	West	Yes	1st game
	12	Phoenix	Road	March 25	West	?	2nd game	Season series 1-1
	13	Phoenix	Home	March 28	West	?
	14	New York	Home	March 30	East		1st game	Last game vs. East until Finals
	15	Portland	Road	March 31	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
April	16	Denver	Road	April 2	West	Yes	1st game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 6
	17	Minnesota	Home	April 3	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5 5th game in 7
	18	New Orleans	Road	April 5	West	Yes		3rd game in 4 4th game in 6 5th game in 7
	19	Dallas	Road	April 8	West	Yes
	20	San Antonio	Road	April 10	West	Yes	1st game
	21	Golden State	Home	April 11	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4
	22	LA Clippers	Home	April 13	West		1st game	3rd game in 4
	23	LA Lakers	Road	April 14	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5

The Jazz are currently sitting at 36-23, and need 14 games to win 50 for the season. ESPN.com predicted that the Jazz would win 51 games -- a number that I thought was ridiculously low back in Pre-Season. I was so bold as to suggest that the Jazz would finish the season (including playoffs) with 65 wins this year. The last two seasons the Jazz won 60 games total (2006-2007: 51 regular season, 9 playoffs; 2007-2008: 54 regular season, 6 playoffs) -- so I felt like a 5 game improvement wouldn't be that far out of the realm of possibility. For my statement to be true (65 wins), and let's assume the Jazz win 6 playoff games (2nd round exit) the Jazz will need to win each of these last 23 games. As much as that would be awesome, I just don't see it happening. (In my defense, though, I could not know that the Jazz would miss over 150 man games to injury this year)

Instead of doing the whole 'poke holes into my ability to gauge how well my team can win games' game, let's move forward . . . into March. The Jazz have momentum right now, having won 7 games straight, 9 in a row at home, and 10 of their last 11. They need to keep it going, or else they may end up facing San Antonio or the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. I'd take the Jazz' chances in the first round against any of the other teams in the West (Denver, Houston, Portland, New Orleans, Dallas, Phoenix), even without home court. The Playoff Push all starts tonight on the road to the Golden State Warriors -- who killed us last time we played them.

December Schedule Overview

Just to refresh everyone's memories . . . last season Utah played 16 games in December and managed to go 5-11over that span. The main reasons why the Jazz lost so many games happened to be a mixture of injuries, off-court drama (thanks Giricek!) and the fact that teams learned to just play zone defense against Utah. This season we have a slew of injuries and go into December looking to play 15 games.

The first three games are an away game @ Sacramento on Tuesday, quickly followed by a home game the very next night against the Miami Heat. I've never flown from Sacramento to Salt Lake City before, but that doesn't seem to be too bad -- weather permitting. The Jazz do not play again until Friday, with a game on TV (ESPN) hosting the Toronto Raptors.

After the two game home stand the Jazz face off with a pair of road games -- the first @ Phoenix (the 2nd night of a back-to-back) on Saturday, and then @ Minnesota on Tuesday.

Again, alternating between home games and road games the Jazz return to Salt Lake City for games against Portland (also on TV, this time TNT) and then two days later, against Orlando. Then the fun starts . . .

Fun being our 2nd 5 game Eastern Conference Road trip in two months. Thankfully it appears to be a bit more spaced out than last time. On the 15th the Jazz play @ Boston, on the 17th the Jazz play @ New Jersey, on the 19th the Jazz play @ Detroit. The next night the Jazz play @ Chicago -- this is not only the 2nd night in a back-to-back set but also the 3rd game in 4 nights. The Jazz's last stop is against the Milwaukee Bucks on the 23rd. On paper playing against Boston, Detroit and Chicago should be harder than playing against the Wizards, Bobcats and Knicks -- but the Jazz lost all three of those games too, so who is to say how Utah will fare this time around?

After Christmas the Jazz play Dallas on boxing day, then visit Houston the very next night. Utah finishes the month with a home game against Philadelphia.

For those keeping score at home that's 6 games against the West, and 9 games against the East. (We've only lost once all season against the West so far, and 6 times against Eastern foes) Furthermore, the Jazz play 6 home games and 9 road games.

There are only four back-to-back sets (@ Sac, vs. Mia; vs. Tor., @ Phoe; @ Det, @ Chi; and vs. Dal, @ Hou) this month, so that's one good thing from this mess that we can look forward to.

There are a number of 3rd game in 4 nights: the Toronto game is one, so will be the game @ Phoenix, the game @ Chicago and the game at home vs. Philadelphia.

It's not easy, but December is very rarely easy for the Jazz. Anything less than going 7 - 8 would be horrible.

10 Things Jazz fans should be thankful for

It's genocide day turkey day here in America, and one of the most gluttonous days of the year. (nothing says 'thanks' like your body physiologically shutting itself down so you do not eat anymore food) Anyway, so far this season the Jazz aren't one of the top 5 teams in the league (percentage-wise, the best teams are the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns), but they Jazz very well could have been one of the bottom 5 teams if they felt sorry enough for themselves. There are a number of things the Jazz fans should be thankful for. Here they are:

1. Despite all the injuries/absences, the Jazz are still in it
	I felt as though the Jazz could hold then own in the chance that Deron Williams had to miss 6 weeks of action. Little did I know that he really WOULD be gone for almost that long. Even more upsetting was the fact that as a team, the Jazz lost quite a few players over that same time frame: Deron missed 13 games, Harpring missed 9, Collins more than 7, Okur missed 5, Boozer and Kover both missed 4 each, Brevin Knight and Andrei missed two games each as well. That's about 45 missed days of action, in only 16 games. The Jazz still managed to win 10 games and are only a win off of last year's pace. (Though, I thought that the Jazz would be 12-4 at this point in time this season, without Deron's injury) Aside from shitting the bed against the Knicks, Wizards and Bobcats on the road, and the ridiculous loss to the Bulls (on our homecourt) the Jazz have played pretty well in every single game. Utah is 8-1 versus the Western Conference this season so far, and while we currently sit half a game out of 1st in our division, the Jazz are undefeated in games against division opponents this season. The Jazz are still in this, and if the playoffs started today we'd face off against Houston again. Don't tell me that wouldn't be a favorable match up?
2. The schedule
	This is an easy one as the Jazz have a record of 10-6 even though they were a walking M*A*S*H unit for most of the season. We Jazz fans should be thankful for the schedule makers and the schedule they gave us. Our first five games were comically easy -- especially when combined with the fact that we played clubs that were either not very good, or without key players in the first few games. (E.g. Denver without Carmelo Anthony due to a suspension, the Clippers without Baron Davis and Marcus Camby for one game, Portland without Greg Oden, etc). Aside from the brutal 5 games in 7 nights Eastern Conference road trip (where the Jazz limped home going 1-4), the schedule has been pretty favorable early. Sure, this means that we have a brutal finishing schedule -- but I'd rather have it easy now when the team is trying to form an identity through all the injuries. If the Jazz had a brutal schedule now we may have 5 wins instead of 10.
3. Internal Development
	Regardless of who you play, you have to still be good enough to win games -- which the Jazz have been doing. The Jazz have been playing a kinds of crazy line-ups this season due to injuries -- and it's worked so far because of the internal development of the younger players. Paul Millsap, Ronnie Brewer, Ronnie Price and C.J. Miles have played in every game for Utah this season. They average between 21.8 mpg and 31.9 mpg -- and three of the four are averaging over 10 ppg. (Price is scoring the least, with only 7 ppg) Taking Deron Williams out of the equation (he's just as young as those guys), that's a pretty solid core of 4 young rotation guys. Two or three seasons ago if you told me that Millsap would be using dribble spin moves in the lane to score on his man, Ronnie Brewer would be hitting threes, C.J. would be taking it strong to the rim, and our point guard (Price) would be dunking with two hands I'd call you crazy. Even our really young (in terms of NBA experience) guys aren't doing that bad. Morris Almond (for all of his flaws) is shooting 53.6 fg% in the NBA against NBA defenses, Kosta Koufos had a series of games where he was a shot blocking force and Fesenko (all of 18 minutes played total this season) showed that he can play -- in 12 minutes of action against Tim Duncan and the Spurs he had 5 rebounds, 2 blocks and made all of his shots. We should be happy our kiddy corp. is doing so well. They are a big reason why the Jazz are winning.
4. Team play
	Without Deron Williams (out of 13 of the first 15 games), the Jazz have had to rely on each other more. This is no more apparent than the number of people who have played point guard for the Jazz so far this season: 5 (Deron Williams, Ronnie Price, Brevin Knight, C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirilenko). Everyone seems to be pretty pass-happy though, and the Jazz are still among the league leaders in some offensive statistics. For example, the Jazz worked the ball around so much that they still managed to be shooting the ball extremely well, 48.4 fg% so far, which is good enough for 3rd best in the league. The team is working well within the system, and it shows, as the Jazz are leading the league in assists per game (24.9 apg), even without a guy who averaged over 10 apg a game. Utah's also tied for 4th best in the league in assist to turn over ratio. Moreover, the Jazz have 6 guys who are averaging over double digits in points per game this season -- with Deron being close to making it seven (he's currently averaging 8.7 ppg in only 3 games). Defensively the Jazz have been working better as a unit as well -- finally being able to actually execute a good zone defense at times, and helping one another -- which has resulted in getting 9.1 steals per game (3rd best in the league). Imagine how much better it'll get with Deron stopping penetration, now that he's healthy again!
5. The Coaching staff
	Not only are the coaches a huge reason why the Jazz have weathered the storm early, but they are a huge reason why the Jazz have been in games at all. Who developed our younger players? The coaches did. Who has been making smart substitutions this season? Again, the coaches. Remember a few games back when we actually saw Ronnie Brewer play in the 4ht quarter, and how amazed we all were? Now we see that every game, and it's normal for us. That's a coaching decision that has paid off. Another happened to be taking Andrei out of 'observer mode' as a starter, and put him in 'active mode' off the bench. Speaking of our bench . . .
6. The Bench
	. . . our bench is awesome this season. Sure, injuries have taken a bite out of our bench recently (Millsap has to start, Brevin is hurt, Kyle is hurt, Harpring is playing again, etc), but our bench has a lot of firepower. We actually won our first 5 games of the season because our bench was so much better than the other teams' bench during that span: +57 points, +34 rebounds, +27 assists, +16 steals, -4 blocks. (again, in just 5 games) The disparity would be even larger had guys like Baron Davis or Marcus Camby started in their games. In previous seasons our hope as fans would be that the bench doesn't lose too much ground during their time on the floor. Now we have the opposite expectation of hoping our bench extends the lead during games. This is further constructed by the belief that all of our early season challenges with injuries will only further season our bench guys. During the last 16 games we've had crunch time line ups made of up Ronnie Brewer and 4 bench guys. This is the silver lining of having so many injuries though, our bench guys are stepping up and can contribute.
7. Defense
	If you ever listen to our head coach Jerry Sloan you would come away with an integral understanding that the Jazz never ever *ever* play defense. This may very well be the case in Jerry's eyes, but when compared to the rest of the league the Jazz do not look too shabby on defense. Utah is allowing 95.9 ppg (even with all the injuries), which is good enough for 11th best in the entire league. We're doing better than noted defensive clubs like the Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls and under-rated Dallas. (At least when Avery was there) Furthermore, teams are shooting 45.3 fg% against the Jazz . . . while only being 17th best in the league, it's still better than a lot of clubs out there. Lastly, the Jazz are very stingy when it actually comes to letting the other team get a number of possessions. The Jazz have shown a better tenacity for the ball than I can remember (thanks to, early on, Brevin, Brewer, AK and 'Sap getting a lot of minutes -- the Jazz force 16 turn overs per game, that's tied for 4th best in the league). If you keep this in the perspective of how many actual possessions this is, this is a greater feat than other teams that play a quicker pace (like the Nuggets, who are 3rd with 16.4 turn overs forced per game -- but play a game with way more total possessions).
8. Andrei is playing great
	Can you imagine how poorly we'd be floundering if it wasn't for his all-around (dare I hint at a performance that's near all-star level) game this year? Sure, statistically he's achieving stats that ARE comparable to what he used to net as an All-Star, but let's not delude ourselves into thinking that the coaches will notice this, and put him on the team. For the record, though, he is playing 30.1 mpg and shooting pretty well (save for from deep -- but everyone's had this problem with Deron out so long). He's giving the Jazz 13.3 ppg (48.3 fg%, 82.7 ft% on an average of 6 fta per game, tops on the team); 6.1 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg and 1.4 bpg. He's down from his 14/9/3/2/2 first week of the season, but it's still pretty good. Statistically, he's having the 4th best season of his career -- and he's doing it off the bench! I've actually been more impressed with the stuff that he does that does not get much notice in boxscores. Specifically with the second unit he is always pointing and directing players to where they are supposed to be. It's a level of command and control that he deserves (as being the longest tenured player on the team) and finally gets, as the leader of the 2nd unit. It makes him happy, and he plays better when he's happy. He's had 15 points and above 8 times this season so far; last season he had 15 points or more 23 times the entire season including playoffs. Getting the ball in scoring position also fuels him on defense. Remember back when he had two blocks on Shaq with the game still in the balance? That happened in a game where he shot 50 fg%, nailed all of his free throws and finished with 19 points, 7 rebounds & 3 steals to go with his blocks.
9. Love him or hate him, Boozer is getting 20 and 10
	Now that everyone is back on the "I Love AK" bandwagon, and no one is even talking (for better or worse) about Fesenko, it's Boozer's turn to be hated on again. He's injured right now, and has missed the last 4 games (games in which Millsap has occasionally produced some really crazy numbers), but day in and day out, Boozer has been a key component in 8 of our 10 wins. Forget that, Boozer has come to play (on offense mostly) every game. Here's his stat lines in losses: 19 points, 18 rebounds; 20 points, 7 rebounds; 26 points, 15 rebounds; 17 points, 9 rebounds (in the 5th game in 7 nights) He's averaging 20.5 ppg and 12.3 rpg in our losses, so it's not like the losses are his fault. (per se) Dude is in a contract season, and we can't worry about what's happening this off-season right now. Right now wins are important, and Boozer's play so far has been quite positive. His defense still leaves something to be desired, but his numbers are hard to dismiss entirely. For those interested, Millsap's numbers in the last four games (all without Boozer) have been 15.3 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Clearly there is still a significant difference between the two, and we should be thankful that Booz has been so consistent so far this season.
10. Deron is finally healthy
	Sure, his minutes may be graduated right now, and he may play less in the second game in a back to back set than normal, but he's back. For good. Having him on the floor really made our offense look 'back to normal'; and Brewer's sharp cuts near the basket are useful again with Deron's passing ability. I'm thankful for him being back, as he elevates the team from being a 'good team' to being a championship contender.

There are many things we all can be thankful for, as Jazz fans, the best is yet to come for our team this year. (Even some of the talk heads at ESPN have already admitted in their chats that the Jazz are the team to watch for the 2nd half of the season, or alternatively, the team to watch in 2009, depending on the guy chatting)

Poll Result: What will happen first?

Wow, when I first put up this poll I had no idea what was going to happen first. Many visitors of the blog also did not know . . . up until 2 days ago when I had about 27 votes in one day. It's no surprise to see what DID happen first mirrored the popular vote in this poll.

		Votes	%	Notes:
	Jerry Sloan will win his 1000th game with the Utah Jazz.	25	56%	Jerry Sloan won his 1000th game with the Utah Jazz on November 7th, 2008.
	Deron will return to the court.	12	27%	Deron was recently told that while he is, indeed, ahead of schedule, only in the most optimistic of cases would he actually have been able to return to play after 2 weeks -- his current schedule aims for him to be on the court after 4-6 weeks from his initial injury.
	C.J. will return to the bench.	4	9%	C.J. Miles has started every game this season for the Utah Jazz, and his play has improved of late -- last game he scored 7 points (2-4 fg, 2-2 3pt, 1-2 ft), had 2 rebounds and 3 assists in 16 minutes of action.
	Ronnie Brewer will make 5 total three pointers.	2	4%	As of November 8th, 2008, Ronnie Brewer has gone 3-6 from three point range.
	Memo will start to hit threes, at the expense of his (current) double double averages.	1	2%	As of November 8th, 2008, Mehmet Okur is averaging 15.2 ppg and 7.2 rpg. He has hit a total of 3 three pointers this season -- when he was not hitting threes, he was averaging a double double. When he started to hit threes (the last two games) he has averaged only 6.5 rpg -- but 19 ppg. So, technically, this is what happened first, though only one person voted for it.

This was fun, because I felt like any number of these possibilities was -- truly -- possible. The sure bet was Jerry Sloan though, and was a mortal lock after the Jazz beat Portland to go up 4-0.