Contract years, Developing Talent & Front Office Subterfuge

The work of a General Manager is easy to criticize, yet hard to fully quantify. Team owners are like dragons sleeping on their hoard of gold coins and other priceless treasures. Coaches want to build winning resumes. Players want to get paid. The GM has to be the go-between that gets all these parties (with differing motivations) on the same page. The GM has to get a coach the players he needs to win. The players want the promises they need before signing on the dotted line (salary, role, playing time, etc). And for the team owner, well, the GM has to placate this obstacle on a near daily basis and convince the owners not to devourer the GM on sight -- while suggesting that parting with part of their hoard (on the 1st and 15th of each month) is the smart thing to do.

At times the NBA can be distilled to purer components, of winning and losing, and of the honesty of the game. Yet, at other times the NBA can expand into a complex juggling act more akin to micromanagement in a strategy game, or a RTS click-fest. For players, the game is the game. It's simple in that way, and relies on skill, speed and quick reflexes -- a Video Game analogy would be the first person shooter. For coaches, it's series of complex decisions, not unlike the original turn based strategy game called "Chess". (you may have heard of it) The GM, though, has to delve into the previously mentioned RTS click-fest:

But instead, imagine dealing with salaries, egos, scouts, coaches, players and injuries . . . also less cannons, probably . . .

*Ahem* Back to the point . . . a GM's job is rarely done perfectly because of how difficult it tends to be. Some GM's are great talent evaluators (for example, there's Isiah Thomas, just look at the player's he has drafted in his career, most of them have been All-Stars or award winners in some regard: Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Marcus Camby, Damon Stoudamire, David Lee, and so on) but poor on other sides of their job description. Other GM's have good connections with other teams, and always seem to do business with them (look at Kevin O'Connor and all the deals he has made with Philly over the years). Some GM's are really good with managing money, while others are known for turning things around in short order. At the end of the day, though, the GM is a salesman. He is essentially selling his services to a consumer -- in this case the team owner. Part of sales is to buy low and sell high. Another part of sales is to be consciously deceptive in just what your wares are. That last part does not really apply fully to the GM - Team Owner relationship, but rather to the GM to GM relationship. Sometimes you get a lemon, but you have to pass it off as a safe family sedan. Other times you (as the GM) are working not against the team owner, the other GM's, but the actual assets -- the players and their agents.

You want to keep a good player on your team for the least amount of money it's going to take to keep him there. All Team Owners expect the GM to be able to do such a thing. This part of the job ties in directly with the buy low/sell high and deceptive doctrines. If the first step is acquiring a player (via a Trade, Free Agency or the Draft), then the next step is evaluating that player (though, we hope that some evaluations have taken place before the player is traded for/signed/drafted). The next logical step would be to give playing time to that player and develop him. The last step? Making a decision on that guy -- sign him again when his contract expires, trade him, or let him walk. Parts of the last step depend greatly on each of the previous steps.

• For example, say the team acquires player A. They evaluate him, see some things they like, some things he needs to improve on, and play him accordingly. He either gets better or worse. If he does well, he becomes more valuable to the team -- and more valuable as a player. His asking price may go up, and making the last step (in this case: deciding to keep him) harder to do. An example of this Jazz fans may be familiar with would be All-Star Mo Williams.
• Player B, on the other hand, does not appear to have much upside, does not make the most of his chances on the court, and is not in the future plans of the team. They can get rid of him in a variety of ways, the team's disinterest in retaining him opens up options for his removal. An example of this Jazz fans may be familiar with would be Kris Humphries.

It's not always this simple, though.

• What about Player C . . . the team that drafts him knows him best, and knows that there is hidden potential deep inside. If they go about normally giving him playing time, allow him to develop openly (instead of only during closed practices and workouts with the team), then other GM's may wish to pry him away. Even if the original team wishes to keep him, retaining him may become very difficult as the exposure led to quicker development, which led to a greater player value. This would be repeating the same mistake with Player A all over again. What if, instead, the team decides to develop him secretly, give him less exposure, drive his asking price down, remove interest other GMs would have in him, and basically, keep him on the "down low".

This is pretty much the only way to retain those people that you think *can* blow up (in a good way), without having to give them a lot of money to make them stay. Deron Williams deserves the contract he got. It's an expensive contract though. Some teams are forced to over-pay to retain their talent (don't need to look farther than a young, uninjured Andrei Kirilenko half a decade ago). In general, you want to avoid doing that. If anything, I think we can clearly place the curious case of C.J. Miles as an example of a Player C scenario.

At the end of C.J.'s first season he was getting more playing time, and in the last game of the season he played really well. How well? 23 points (8/13 fg, 2/5 3pt, 5/8 ft), 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal -- as a rookie with extend playing time playing against a tough Western Conference team. Every off-season since then there have been fishy things going on. He was a consistent no-show in future summer leagues, but instead opted to work on his game by himself. During times of injury he would be pressed into the starting line-up, only to return to the end of the bench only a few days later. C.J. should have played more than he did in when he was on his rookie contract. The clock struck 12 on C.J.'s contract though, and the Jazz simply put themselves in a situation to match whatever contract someone threw his way by virtue of him being a restricted free agent. No one really bit, not knowing what they would be getting . . . until Oklahoma City offered him a 4 year $15 million dollar contract. We all know how that story ended, as the Jazz eventually matched. Was $3.75 million per season too much for C.J. Miles? Perhaps . . . but at the same time, it's a lot less than it could have been had C.J. been playing like he is now at this time last season. (or perhaps, getting the playing time that he is getting now at this time last season) Back then I thought the Jazz were (in chronological order) a) not developing C.J. enough, b) using him only for spot duty, c) giving his playing time to guys who did not deserve it.

This season Ceejay has been everything from a solid deep threat, a versatile 2nd option on offense, to invisible . . . sometimes all in the same week. This is his 4th season in the league, and his first where he has averaged over 11.5 mpg. I'm sure he would be better, more seasoned player than he currently is if he was playing 20 mpg every season after his rookie campaign. I'm also pretty sure that he wouldn't be on the Jazz then. In effect, one could directly point to a systematic way in which the Jazz brass (Sloan and O'Connor mostly) lowered interest in a prospect, sequestered him from exposure (he only got one short stint in the NBA DL), yet did not develop him for fear of losing him. At the end of the day the Jazz have C.J., but not the C.J. he could be right now, and C.J. is not earning as much as he perhaps thought he would be after his rookie contract expired.

The Jazz financial situation is horrible right now. If it does not improve shortly than there may be a few more Player A type situations in the future with key contributors Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer. The Jazz would love to keep them for reasonable contracts, though their development (and production) have elicited quite a bit of exposure. Good for their bank accounts, perhaps not so great for the Jazz.

That's where the micromanagement comes back into play. You want your players to be good, productive and develop . . . but you do not want to lose them to other teams after you put in all the hard work to make them useful. Gilbert Arenas comes to mind, he was drafted, developed, and then left to get paid in free agency. Right now the Jazz are playing the "front office subterfuge game" with some other young players that could possibly be helping the Jazz right now.

Morris Almond: He is a scorer's scorer, who despite having limited quickness and has played defense only once in his life, could be doing a whole lot more for this Jazz team. He's looked horrible in his rookie season with the Jazz where he never got to be involved in the plays that the regular rotation run that get swingmen easy buckets. He didn't play a minute with Deron Williams last year, and was relegated to garbage time spot up shooting from the corner. Reason for not getting playing time: He's behind a few key guys on the depth chart and doesn't rebound or defend as well as others. For some reason this has prevented him from playing one single second in the NBA-DL this season. Something fishy: Why hasn't he played in the D-League at all this season then, if there's no space for him on our current roster? Do the Jazz know that he's a raw gem that only seems to look better when he gets to play?  Utah is healthy now, so there's no real risk to put him in the game at all . . . maybe practice with the Jazz is better than games with the Flash? Or maybe they don't want him to get too much exposure right now? Utah has opted not to extend his contract, so seemingly he is out . . . but maybe they are trying to keep his going rate low so that they *can* still have a shot at retaining him for a while. After all, they scouted him, interviewed him, drafted him, are developing him . . . Harpring's contract expires next year, and the Jazz will need a wing player who can come off that Harpring curl and hit the mid-range jumper. Financial situation aside, that sounds like something the Jazz have in their laps right now with Almond. Alas, this is exactly not the contract type of year a young player wants to have (being buried on the bench). Co-incidentally, this is exactly the type of contract year the Jazz would want him to have . . . after all, they did the same thing with Ceejay, they know what they are doing.

Kyrylo Fesenko: Very large man (7'1, 300+ lbs.) with the same wingspan and standing reach as Greg Oden -- yet uninjured and a capable passer and interior defender who has, due to injuries, been pressed into defending the likes of Yao Ming to Andrew Bynum . . . and done so well. Very likely that he is more talented than the guy ahead of him on the depth chart (Jarron Collins), but lacks experience, familiarity with the system and seasoning. Reason for not getting playing time: Work ethic and personality appear to anchor this man to the bench, though at some level talent and ability should trump that. Something fishy: As a rookie, this wet behind the ears, 2nd round draft pick center joined the Jazz and played in 70 games, and played over 20 mpg. This player joined a playoff team that was contending for a championship. This player had no experience with the Jazz system prior (as a rookie) and ended up getting playing time over a limited, soft center who had much more experience in the system. This young player was Jarron Collins. What, did you think I was talking about Fesenko? Heck no, Fesenko has played only 200 minutes with the Jazz in his 2 year career, let alone played in 70 (@ 20 per) as a rookie. Why is there such a disparity between Collins' and Fesenko's early careers? I don't know, but it seems kind of fishy to me. Even more fishy is that Fes only had one stint in the NBA-DL this season (8 games), promptly did exactly what we'd want him to do (be a defensive presence who rebounded, blocked and changed shots, shot a high percentage and eventually was averaging a double double) . . . and was called back and never played again. Ever. Hmmmm . . . he improves, shows that he's good at what he does . . . and can be a free agent this season . . . 'need to reel that big boy in, and hide him somewhere!' (which was the original plan with drafting a little known, poorly scouted player from a minor European league in the first place) More so than Almond, I think that Fesenko has a future with the Jazz, or at the very least, in the NBA somewhere as teams always want size, and if the guy is talented, he's going to get a contract somewhere. If you gave him the playing time, I'm pretty sure that he'd be able to get Rookie Millsap type of numbers for sure.

Paul Millsap: Speaking of the 'Sap, he got some great exposure this season. He produced as a starter due to injuries to Carlos Boozer. He's a free agent, and he's going to get paid this off-season. No doubt about it. Interestingly enough, at the first whiff of a hobbled, rusty Carlos Boozer the Jazz sent 'Sap back to the bench and as his fantasy owners know firsthand, 'Sap just hasn't been the same since. Reason for being sent to the bench: Boozer was the starter before he got injured, the Jazz/Sloan doctrine on this is that you cannot lose your starting job due to injury. Something fishy: No one said anything about a starting job, but just let Paul start the first 4-5 games after Boozer comes back and then let Boozer slowly work his way back into playing shape, and then give Boozer the starting spot. A lot of teams do this, they bring a starter back from injury on the bench just to test things out a bit. Out of all of my conspiracies, this is among the weakest -- though I don't see why the Jazz didn't keep starting Millsap for 4 games while Boozer (who was playing limited minutes) worked his way back into starting shape. For one thing, this almost looks like a directed attempt to reduce Millsap's exposure (for the open market). It's probably not, but it just looks fishy -- during a contract year, no less.

Kosta Koufos: Let's just say that if this 19 year old was playing Brook Lopez type of minutes on a bad team we'd see Brook Lopez-ish production out of Kosta. Yet, a guy who is clearly more talented than Collins, and is a very hard worker (much more than Fesenko has shown), is completely lost on this team. Kosta isn't on the active roster right now, isn't playing in the development league, and isn't developing. Reason for not getting playing time: Apparently he doesn't know the plays. Sure, he's a smart shot blocking 7 footer who has a nice offensive game AND is a very hard worker who hustles . . . but he's not going to get to play because by playing him he would then be in a position to actually learn the plays, and then we would have even less of an excuse for why he isn't playing. He's almost a gestalt character that takes the size (mostly) and shot blocking of Fess, with the hustle and work ethic of Collins . . . and gets none of the playing time that he should. Something fishy: There is no good reason not to play this guy, develop him with real NBA minutes, or even send him to the NBA D-League for some in game action. He hasn't seen the developmental league at all in his career, instead getting better by wearing suits next to Carlos Boozer for 50+ games. That's another thing, he got some very minor playing time just because of injuries . . . this season was a prime season to be forced into playing and developing younger talent. Sloan had to work many games without being able to call on veteran bigmen . . . but still he elected to instead play Matt Harpring at power forward. Huh?

It's not that difficult to imagine that the Jazz are hurting their futures by risking not getting these guys playing time because they do not want to lose them to other teams . . . but they also get nothing out of these guys. Other teams play younger players during the regular season so that they may become contributors to that team . . . and even help them in the playoffs. Heck, our team did this with Paul Millsap as a rookie, or Shandon Anderson (more on him later), or Bryon Russell and a host of others. There's no doubt in my mind that if Fess of Kosta were getting 12-15 mpg this season that one of them would be able to contribute in the playoffs for us. Instead the development time has become much longer for a bunch of guys who could be helping us now. Also, it's not that difficult to imagine that the Jazz are hurting the values of their players by flat out burying them during contract years. No playing time = no exposure and no stats = bargain prices. They did this with C.J., and if they had a time machine, would probably like to do so with others as well.

The way that the Jazz develop talent seems to be highly unequal. Some young guys get regular burn, while others don't. This time is directly proportional towards development. I think that Jazz Brass feel the financial side to all of this needs to take precedence over the immediate development and returns from the players on the roster. The Jazz gave good minutes to a solid player (Shandon Anderson) as a rookie, and eventually left the team, the Jazz get nothing in the long term for it. The Jazz gave good minutes to a very talented player (Andrei Kirilenko), and end up having to really over-pay to keep him on the team. The Jazz don't want to get into anything like that again, and now underplay most guys during the span of their rookie contracts, so they they do not have to over-pay.

C.J., only after the Jazz matched an offer he got from another team, is finally getting playing time -- but as a 4th year guard with the potential that he had when he was drafted, he is behind where he should be. They seem to be guilty of doing that with Almond and Fesenko by not playing them in the NBA, nor allowing them to rack up stats in the D-League . . . which would have been a great way to audition for other teams during contract years -- or you know, actually get better and be able to help OUR team.

Some Jazz apologists feel like the practices the Jazz have are of greater value to a younger player than actually playing in the development league, or even playing in the NBA on poorer quality teams. I think that this is a very haughty thing to say . . . especially with how closely the Jazz *can* keep an eye on things with their development team being only a few miles away and the coach of that team is related to Jerry Sloan -- it almost seems like a no-brainer to send the kids down at least once each when none of them are even on the active roster with the Jazz. They threw C.J. a bone once by doing that, by giving him a chance to play, and that improved his morale. Why not do the same for a younger player this season? Sloan even goes out to harp on how great the D-League is, and how he wishes they had that when he first came into the league. If it's so great, why not use it, now that the rest of the guys are healthy?

As for how great the Jazz practices are . . . they rarely get a chance to practice on the road (they only practice on days off, and now at the end of the season, with the playoffs coming up, there may be less than the regular number of practices on off-days), so the younglings are getting even less time to improve than normal. This clearly is the case where the GM, at the behest of saving the team owner money, works with the coaches to screw the players out of money / job satisfaction. Or maybe that's by design, especially in their contract years?

All Euro (Whitey) Team comment and other thoughts on recent blog articles I've enjoyed

I love readings blogs . . . that's actually the main reason why I created one as well -- because I wanted to give back. Unfortunately I don't have all the time in the world to read them anymore, but I try to keep abreast of blog posts via BallHype.com. (They are fantastic, I use BallHype.com more often than I use Google.com) Anyway, here's a selection of blog posts and my take on them --

Rebounding Differential Rankings in the NBA [Nov 6] -- Khandor's Sports Blog talks about something Jazz fans have been very lucky to have over the last few seasons, and actually positive rebounding differential. Utah is a strong rebounding club (currently #6th in the NBA in differential at +5.00 as of November 6th, 2008). Last season the Jazz were tied for 3rd over-all with the Boston Celtics at +3.1 rebound differential; Cleveland was at +4.2, and Houston at +4.0. Two of the clubs above the Jazz (Detroit and Philly) have played the Raptors though, and thus, those rebounding numbers look highly inflated. Khandor shows a nice chart and talks about it a bit. I tend to value rebounding differential more than actual average RPG because it shows how good (or bad) a team is compared to other teams -- as opposed to being an isolated number by itself. I wish the Raptors do get better rebounding, as they are one of the teams that I root for. Thanks Khandor for blogging about this, it's nice to know that I'm not the only crazy person out there who likes stats.

Zach at Gunaxin.com recently blogged about The All Whitey Basketball Team -- Zach describes and details a 12 man roster of purely American white guys. He comes up with Kirk Hinrich, Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy Jr., David Lee and Chris Kaman as starters. The bench is comprised of Brad Miller, Kyle Korver, Steve Blake, Kevin Love, Wally Szcerbiak, Troy Murphy and Nick Collison. I don't think that team would suck. (It would be a whole lot better than an All-Asian Basketball team, for starters . . . and as a guy who's parents were born in Asia I can say that, I guess in that Russell Peters type of "i'm a minority so I can be racist" type of comedy that Sarah Silverman employs) That's a tangent though . . . I wanted to make an all European Basketball team to counter . . . this is what I came up with (In no order):

1. Tony Parker (PG) -- France/Spurs
2. Hidayet Turkoglu (SF/SG) -- Turkey/Magic
3. Andrei Kirilenko (SF/PF) -- Russia/Jazz
4. Dirk Nowitzki (PF/C) -- Germany/Mavericks
5. Pau Gasol (PF/C) -- Spain/LA Lakers
6. Jose Manuel Calderon (PG) -- Spain/Raptors
7. Sasha Vujacic (SG/PG) -- Slovenia/LA Lakers
8. Rudy Fernandez (SG/SF) -- Spain/Trailblazers
9. Predrag Stojakovic (SF/SG) -- Serbia (Croatia)/Hornets
10. Linas Kleiza (SF/PF) -- Lithuania/Nuggets
11. Mehmet Okur (PF/C) -- Turkey/Jazz
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (C) -- Lithuania/Cavaliers

If you want only "White Euros" then take out Tony Parker and put in Beno Udrih instead and start Jose instead. I think that team would be pretty comparable to the USA Whitey's team, though probably beat them in a 7 game series handily. The Euro team would surely flop a whole lot as well . . . the toughest guy on the European team would have to be either Kleiza or Okur, which says a whole lot.

"I was saying booo-urns . . . !" - Hans Moleman from The Simpsons. "Apparently" the NYC Crowd is not booing Chris Duhon. Or are they? Read it at What would Oakley Do? The Duhon/Fog Light analogy is as hilarious as it is apt -- and reason enough to read this article.

Apparently Jerry Sloan has been coaching the Jazz since the Ronald Reagan years . . . the Salt Lake Tribune brings the funk on that while I ponder just how many years I've been a fanatic fan of the NBA . . . and how much else I could have accomplished in my life if I was not . . .

Depth Perception: Power Forward

The NBA game is a dynamic game where over time, the nature and necessity of different positions have changed. Conventional ideas suggest that you need one really good ball handler, one really tall guy to prevent teams from getting easy stuff inside, one guy who is really good at shooting, one guy who is really versatile, and one guy to do all the dirty work. It's easy to see this being the ever popular PG, C, SG, SF and PF concept of a team. Some positions are obviously more important than others -- every good team needs a competent PG on offense to runs things. Similarly, teams without someone who can score usually lose a lot (a talented SG or SF is absolutely necessary). Some teams prefer to do things inside out, and thus, a good C is often a road to the title (Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, Mikan, etc). That said, these positions have changed quite a bit over time.

Previously the point guard was just the guy who could beat the press, drive, and dish to the right guy at the right time. Individuals like Bob Cousy and John Stockton clearly displayed this pass first motive. Other, arguably more flashy and talented lead guards took upon the concept of being a complete player, and endeavored to score more frequently -- while still passing the ball and being the primary ball handler. Isiah Thomas was one of the best at this -- but surely not the only one to bring a balanced offensive attack from the PG spot.

Another spot on the floor that has changed over time was the power forward spot. For the longest time it was dominated by beefy characters who could bang, play defense, get boards, and get out of the way on offense. Individual talents like Bob Pettit and others tried to bring scoring into the fold; though guys like Maurice Lucas / Kermit Washington always seemed to find a home in the NBA being lunch-pail types at the 4. The evolution of the power forward took a quantum leap forward with Elgin Baylor -- a superb scorer par excellence. Elvin Hayes brought the toughness, but the examples of these individuals and Charles Barkley, Karl Malone and Chris Webber pointed out that it was really difficult to win the NBA title by focusing on a power forward.

Kevin Garnett won a title with the Boston Celtics as a top level power forward; however he was far from the primary offensive force for his club. Tim Duncan has won quite a few titles as a power forward; though one gets the feeling that had he been drafted by a club that was bereft of a David Robinson type that he would never have played there.

Today most teams look to the 4 spot to contribute on the glass and with defense -- like always; but now expectations for power forwards to score a bit more have been raised. Not many power forwards are known for being great shot blockers, though some exceptions to the rule exist. Most surprisingly the evolution of the power forward has branched out into seemingly different species as the needs of teams have changed.

Jason Maxiell is a power forward and so is Vladimir Radmanovic. The only similarities that these two guys seem to have is their heights, and that their talents are so focused that they are not capable of playing the three or the five. In some respects, the four spot is the utility spot. If you need extra athleticism, start Josh Smith there. If you need shot blocking, you've got Elton Brand. Shooting skills are easily found with Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki. Lamar Odom is a fantastic passer who has a great handle for a power forward. That said, which team is the best equipped (as far as the current make up of teams exist today) at Power Forward?

Atlantic Division:

Boston Celtics	New Jersey Nets	New York Knicks	Philadelphia 76ers	Toronto Raptors
Kevin Garnett	Yi Jianlian	Zach Randolph	Elton Brand	Chris Bosh
Glen Davis	Eduardo Najera	David Lee	Reggie Evans	Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins	Stromile Swift	Wilson Chandler	Marreese Speights	Andrea Bargnani
Brian Scalabrine	Sean Williams	Malik Rose	Jason Smith	Kris Humphries
	Josh Boone	Jared Jeffries		Nathan Jawai

Boston is anchored by KG and it quickly goes downhill from there. Big Baby, Perk (shifting over from the 5)and Scal are all bangers, and there is no real versatility here. New Jersey sports average talent in a number of bodies, Yi has the upside, Najera is a scrappy player, Stromile can sky in for dunks, Boone is a disappointment and Sean Williams (more of a true center) blocks shots. The Knicks manage to have both talent and depth -- Zach is a 20-10 guy when he wants to be, David Lee never gets tired, Jeffries is very versatile and Rose and Chandler are on opposite sides of the age/experience spectrum. Philly is interesting because they have Brand, who is a top level PF, and is backed by other bangers who can be rotation guys on almost every team. Evans and Evans Jr. (Speights) may seem a bit redundant, however Smith can shoot it well enough to give Philly an edge over the Knicks or the Nets. Toronto, though, is the class of the Atlantic when it comes to their power forwards. Chris Bosh is very underrated, he can do everything from hit game winning threes, to running up and down the court to block shots, and he makes all of his free throws. Behind him there is Bargnani (who will bounce back) and has unlimited range for a 4, Humphries hustles and bangs and rookie Jawai can play the 5 or the 4. Then there is Jermaine O'Neal who is a heck of a talent who does many things well. The Raptors have good defenders in Bosh and O'Neal, scrappy energy types like Humphries and Jawai and a very deadly outside shooter in Bargnani. All of these guys are tall, Jawai is the shortest, and he's only 6'10.

Winners:	Toronto	Raptors
Chris Bosh	Jermaine O'Neal	Andrea Bargnani	Kris Humphries	Nathan Jawai

Central Division:

Chicago Bulls	Cleveland Cavaliers	Detroit Pistons	Indiana Pacers	Milwaukee Bucks
Drew Gooden	Ben Wallace	Antonio McDyess	Troy Murphy	Charlie Villanueva
Tyrus Thomas	Anderson Varejao	Jason Maxiell	Josh McRoberts	Joe Alexander
Andres Nocioni	LeBron James	Rasheed Wallace	Shawne Williams	Malik Allen
Joakim Noah	JJ Hickson	Amir Johnson	Maceo Baston	Luc Mbah a Moute
Cedric Simmons		Walter Herrmann	Jeff Foster	Dan Gadzuric

Chicago has quite a bit of talent here. Gooden is gooden enough to be a 15/10 guy with enough playing time, Tyrus has prime time athleticism, Nocioni is a heady player who can rebound, pass and shoot the ball, Noah (a center) can slide over and be a Tyrus clone, and Simmons shows a lot of potential as well. Cleveland is a special case, as they start Ben Wallace there, who while a shell of his former self, can still be counted on to at least intimidate. I don't know anything about JJ Hickson (or Lance Allred), but I know that Anderson Varejao can slide over from the 5 to play some 4. Cleveland really sucks at the 4, save for the fact that if they needed (or wanted) to, they could plop LeBron down here, and they'd be quite okay. Detroit has a good mix of veteran savvy (McDyess), tenacity (Maxiell), shot blocking and outside shooting (Wallace), a utility man (Herrmann) and potential (Johnson). Depending on the situation, Detroit has a variety of guys they can go to at the 4. Chicago (save for Nocioni) only has guys with limited ability outside of the paint. I am giving the edge to Detroit here. Indiana is the opposite of Chicago. they are all guys who are better outside of the paint than inside. Milwaukee is like the Nets, in that they have the ability to show a lot of different things at the 4, but they are all pretty average to poor. Detroit wins!

Winners:	Detroit	Pistons
Rasheed Wallace	Jason Maxiell	Antonio McDyess	Amir Johnson	Walter Herrmann

Southeast Division:

Atlanta Hawks	Charlotte Bobcats	Miami Heat	Orlando Magic	Washington Wizards
Josh Smith	Emeka Okafor	Udonis Haslem	Rashard Lewis	Antawn Jamison
Al Horford	Gerald Wallace	Michael Beasley	Hidayet Turkoglu	Oleksiy Pecherov
Solomon Jones	Jared Dudley	Shawn Marion	Brian Cook	Darius Songaila
Randolph Morris	Sean May	Joel Anthony	Tony Battie
	Alexis Ajinca	David Padgett	Marcin Gortat

Atlanta is exciting with younger players like the hyper athletic Josh Smith and center worthy Al Horford. Aside from those two guys it's pretty much useless. Horford should play more center anyway, so it's pretty much just Josh Smith. He's a good player, but his limitations are obvious. The Bobcats are much more deep and versatile. Okafor is a defensive stalwart who is getting better offensively. Gerald Wallace is no slouch on defense, and he has the occasional ability to hit the three. He's mainly a slasher. Outside of these two are a few individuals playing out of position -- Jared Dudley is more of a 3 in the way Melo is, he can shoot and posts up, but isn't a full time 4. Sean May is a 5, but he can play a slow, but thick, 4 for a bit. The skinny but quick Ajinca is a 7'0 French player who can't possibly be thinking of playing the 5 over here in America. The Bobcats are pretty good here. Miami has three solid guys that could start: Haslem is one of the last Oakley types in the NBA, Beasley has all the potential in the world and Shawn Marion is very capable to do many different things well. It doesn't really matter after that. Marion cancels out whatever Gerald Wallace can do, Okafor is better than Haslem though. Is Beasley better than Dudley, May and Ajinca? Most definitely, so Miami is in the lead so far. Orlando is troubling. They basically play two small forwards (who are 6'10 and 6'11) here, and both of them are perimeter oriented offensive players who leave all the dirty work to Dwight Howard. That said, they won quite a few games for Orlando this season -- their clutch shooting was a great help to their team. Cook can also shoot it from the outside, and everyman Tony Battie can still get up there to block some shots (but he's mostly a 5). Marcin Grotat is probably a solid pick and pop guy as well. If you are looking at pure scoring, it's hard to say no to Orlando. Washington has Antawn Jamison, who is (statistically) one of the best PFs in the Eastern Conference, even if no one talks about him. Oleksiy Pecherov will one day pan out to be a poor man's Detlef. Darius Songaila is a poor man's Jamison. All three are capable outside shooters, and all three are solid rebounders. They don't have much depth and versatility -- all are basically differing talent levels of the same type of power forward archetype. Miami's lack of depth is a worse problem than Orlando's lack of inside muscle, or Washington's lack of versatility.

Winners:	Miami	Heat
Shawn Marion	Udonis Haslem	Michael Beasley	Joel Anthony	David Padgett

Southwest Division:

Dallas Mavericks	Houston Rockets	Memphis Grizzlies	New Orleans Hornets	San Antonio Spurs
Dirk Nowitzki	Luis Scola	Hakim Warrick	David West	Tim Duncan
Brandon Bass	Carl Landry	Antoine Walker	Melvin Ely	Kurt Thomas
James Singleton	Chuck Hayes	Darrell Arthur	Julian Wright	Matt Bonner
	Ron Artest	Darko Milicic	Ryan Bowen	Ian Mahinmi
	Mike Harris		Hilton Armstrong	Anthony Tolliver

Dallas begins and ends with Dirk. He is one of the Top 5 power forwards in the league. Behind him is the inside brute Brandon Bass. Singleton almost has to bring nothing, and the Dallas power forwards are one of the better ones in the league. Singleton is apparently very athletic, so he only makes Dallas stronger. Houston has a legion of guys 6'9 and under to throw at teams. Scola is the best of the bunch, and guys like Landry, Hayes and Harris are all inside players. Landry is quite a good defender. Speaking of crazy defenders, the Rockets may elect to play Ron Artest at the 4 in spurts. He is capable of playing good off the ball and man to man defense against taller players. In the absence of Ron Artest, Dallas is much better than Houston, even though Houston has many more fouls to go around. (Keep in mind that some of these guys on the Rockets are also their back-up centers) Memphis has Warrick, who is an exciting young player; alas, he's not good enough to elevate this rag-tag group of power forwards over any of the other groups in his division. Walker is crazy talented, but he's not playing in many games. Darko can slide over, but I doubt that he would -- unless Marc Gasol is really good. The Hornets have one of the best mid-range jump shooting bigmen in David West. Their back-up is really Ryan Bowen (think Harpring, but taller, and less capable), but I've include the ability for them to shift people around a bit (like centers Ely and Armstrong). The Hornets are good -- but not because of their fear inducing power forwards for certain. The Spurs have Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas (like McDyess but better), Bonner (a guy for threes), Mahinmi (one of the better NBA-DL players out there) and this Tolliver guy. I know next to nothing about this guy, but I know he was drafted by the Spurs, and they rarely make mistakes. Dallas vs. San Antonio for this one . . . and . . . well, Duncan is way more clutch than Dirk in the playoffs.

Winners:	San Antonio	Spurs
Tim Duncan	Kurt Thomas	Matt Bonner	Ian Mahinmi	Anthony Tolliver

Northwest Division:

Denver Nuggets	Minnesota Timberwolves	Oklahoma City Thunder	Portland Trailblazers	Utah Jazz
Kenyon Martin	Al Jefferson	Chris Wilcox	LaMarcus Aldridge	Carlos Boozer
Nene	Ryan Gomes	Donyell Marshall	Channing Frye	Mehmet Okur
Renaldo Balkman	Craig Smith	Jeff Green	Ike Diogu	Andrei Kirilenko
Linas Kleiza	Brian Cardinal	Nick Collison	Travis Outlaw	Paul Millsap
Chris Anderson		Joe Smith	Raef LaFrentz	Kosta Koufos

Denver is talented here, K-Mart can run, jump and dunk. I'm not a fan of his, but on paper is he good enough to start on most teams. Nene -- probably the starting center -- can fit in well here as well. Balkman escapes from New York to bring his all around hustle to the Mile High city. Kleiza is a very accomplished shooter and international player who even put up something like 42 points against the Utah Jazz last season. The Birdman returns to the NBA as part of the Nuggets. All in all, they are very talented, have a solid outside spot up shooter in Kleiza and a couple of inside only guys. The T-Wolves are no slouches either. If Chris Bosh is one of the most under rated 4's in the league, Al Jefferson is not even mention at all. He is a beast on the inside. Gomes is very talented as well, and can do almost anything on the floor from hitting threes to blocking shots. Craig Smith is in that Maxiel/Millsap mold, but plays in relative obscurity. Brian Cardinal is Ryan Bowen with an outside shot. A solid group, but Gomes is not quite good enough to be a running four (like what Kleiza would be great at). Oklahoma is actually pretty good. Wilcox is the starter who can score in the paint. Donyell is a three point specialist to the point that he doesn't bring anything else to the table anymore. Jeff Green can slide over from the three to rebound and play well. Nick Collison is a rugged interior defender and Joe Smith is a very capable inside scorer. Portland just has LaMarcus -- and while he is a good young player, I'd rather have any other group of power forwards from the Northwest division than what Portland puts out there. Lastly, we have the Utah Jazz and, well, let's put it this way: three of these guys have been All-Stars. Carlos Boozer, for his defensive faults, is one of the best power forwards in the game -- he is a monster on the boards and is able to shoot from 18 feet or work inside with solid post moves. (Does David West have any post moves?) Mehmet Okur was a power forward up until Carlos Boozer finally got healthy two seasons ago. In Detroit he was a power forward and he was in Utah as well. He has great range, can block shots (like his game winning block), is an under rated man to man defender (like how he locked down Yao in games 5, 6 and 7 in 2006-2007) and can even drive. Andrei Kirilenko is very versatile, can guard guards and block the shot of centers. He shot 38% from deep last season and was European player of the year in 2007. He's also a very good shot blocker. Paul Millsap is the back-up of Boozer (because Ak is at the 3, and Memo at the 5), but in a true test of ability, he is farther down the depth charts. He is a tough defender who hustles for loose balls and is an energy player like Tyrus Thomas and others. Koufos is really a center, but his college game seems to translate better to the four. He's over 7' feet tall and can block shots and hit jumpers. I like what Oklahoma City has, I'm surprised at how good they are as a group. Denver is always tough, and they got much better by adding Balkman and Anderson -- though I can't vote against the Jazz. Not when three of their five guys at power forward have been All-Stars, and that any of their top three guys would start for almost every other team in the league.

Winners:	Utah	Jazz
Carlos Boozer	Mehmet Okur	Andrei Kirilenko	Paul Millsap	Kosta Koufos

Pacific Division:

Golden State Warriors	Los Angeles Clippers	Los Angeles Lakers	Phoenix Suns	Sacramento Kings
Al Harrington	Al Thornton	Pau Gasol	Amare Stoudemire	Mikki Moore
Brandan Wright	Tim Thomas	Lamar Odom	Boris Diaw	Kenny Thomas
Rony Turiaf	Brian Skinner	Vladimir Radmanovic	Louis Admunson	Shelden Williams
Anthony Randolph	Steve Novak	Luke Walton	Robin Lopez	Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Richard Hendrix	Marcus Camby	Josh Powell	Matt Barnes	Jason Thompson

Golden State is interesting, they have a Jamison type with Al Harrington, and occasional center Rony Turiaf is quite good as a backup. They've channeled the Department of Redundancy Department with Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph. Unfortunately for this group, I think the whole is less than the sum of their parts. The Clippers will probably have to use either Kaman or Camby here -- I guess Camby as he used to be a PF back in the olden days. Novak and Thomas can shoot it, and Thornton has potential to be something. The Lakers, on the other hand, have guys who are something. Gasol will have to move to the 4 to make room for Bynum. This makes Odom one of the most talented back-up power forwards of all time. He is great when he is on. Vlad Rad is all about shooting, and Luke struggles at time, but over all, he's not that bad. Phoenix has Amare, the ultra versatile Diaw, the monumental punk Matt Barnes (but he can sometimes hit a three), Mr. Hustle Louis Admunson and if they really need him, Robin Lopez. Over all, it's a solid group, but Gasol and Odom are greater than Amare and Diaw. Sacramento is were somewhat talented power forwards go to die. Easily the Lakers win this one.

Winners:	Los Angeles	Lakers
Pau Gasol	Lamar Odom	Valdimir Radmanovic	Luke Walton	Josh Powell

The question remains though . . . which of these six groups is the best? (remember to think about strengths, depth, versatility, offensive diversity, defense, star power, awards, and chemistry)