Who else is sick with the Great Hype surrounding Andrew “Bust”num?

If you’ve ever wandered onto an LA Lakers blog, message board, or listened to a nationally broadcasted game by Mike “Fellatio for the Lakers 24/7” Tirico then you’ll know, with complete certainty, that Andrew Bynum is one of the best centers in the league, and will without giving any prior notice, become the next best center in the league and join the pantheon of great bigmen. He will rightfully sit alongside Wilt, Russell and Kareem while using Ewing, Robinson and O’Neal as foot rests. The third footrest will be necessary because of how great and grand his male organ must be – as he has been photographed at the Playboy mansion (who cares) and is curiously linked to Rihanna right now. (who? exactly.)

As impressive as his potential appears, and as great as his off-court life may or may not be (I’d rather hang out at the Acharya mansion any day of the week) – I’m less than impressed with him as a player. I’m even less impressed when I actually look at his accomplishments as a player in the playoffs (aka. when it counts). Furthermore, I’m pretty much sick to death by the hype that he has received from casual fans, homer fans, and the media alike. Now, this isn’t meant to trash the hopes of the future of the Lakers at all – I strive to temper the expectations of him a little bit. For his sake, and ours.

My brother is the most rational Lakers fan I know, he is passionate, but not completely under the spell that countless others are on the internet. He’s more concerned with consistent play, rebounding and solid defense from all of the Lakers and does not have the time to worry about if Bynum is going to be the next Kareem – he’s worried about right now. If I was a Lakers fan I wouldn’t be worried about right now – you guys will trounce Denver on your way to the NBA Finals (where anything can happen). I would, on the other hand, be worried about the past – specifically Bynum’s past.

He’s 21 years old right now and was drafted as a 17 year old. What do we know about him that should really count? How about the fact that he had an injury ruined high school career (leg/knee injury), and in the NBA has had two more leg/knee injuries in his young career. He’s tall, but not nearly as super athletic and fit as freaks like Dwight Howard or Amare Stoudemire are – I don’t expect him to be physically made of the same stuff as those guys are. When you get over 7 feet tall, any injuries to your lower body seriously limit how reliable you can be, regardless of how much work one may put on their upper bodies. (You’re only as strong as your base is – look at Yao Ming, who has just a storied lower body injury history as Bynum, he misses lots of games every year, and is never 100% due to the strain his body puts on his lower body) Amare had two career ending (had this been the 80’s/90’s) knee injuries, but has come back due to a great work ethic. Bynum puts women on his shoulders during rehab. I wouldn’t be making a huge leap by suggesting that Bynum may have a career that features a number of injuries to his lower body, not unlike Yao Ming – as opposed to being virtual injury free like Dwight Howard. But I have no crystal ball, I’m just going on the fact that he’s a big guy with a history of lower body injuries who was injury prone as a teen and only looks to put an increasingly large strain on those same joints as his ages and increases mass.

That’s not very empirical though, it’s just an assumed health arc based on his body type, job, apparent work ethic, how healthy other big guys his size have been and medical history. What is empirical, on the other hand, is to dig deep and look at stats. I love stats. Stats are flawed, as I’ve explained on this blog before, but they still give a pretty good indication of on court production. (After all, that’s what counts, points, rebounds, blocks, assists, steals, turn overs and fouls, right?)

After this last game against the Houston Rockets the total number of playoff games that Bynum has participated in stands at 18. These 18 games have taken him from 2005-2006 till now to amass. In that time he has been brought along slowly – thanks to the fact that he doesn’t need to be useful when he’s so far down the pecking order behind at least 4 other guys. That said, his production does not appear to be indicative of him joining the pantheon of great bigmen any decade soon. I want to look at his stats in the playoffs and see the promise that appears to be there (and only appears in regular season games against bad teams sandwiched between injuries). As a point of reference I looked at Patrick Ewing’s first 19 games (why not 18? wanted to complete that one series to make it an even number of playoff off series for the two) in the playoffs. Ewing was a great center, but never will he be called the best of his generation, and thus, not up for entry into the pantheon of greatest bigmen ever (though the media has already reserved a spot there for Bynum).

Bynum’s first 18 Playoff games, and how they stack up:

Ewing creams Bynum statistically. And Ewing played in a time where big guys weren’t bailed out with foul shots, and played against much better competition. Bynum played against the Phoenix Suns, twice anchored in the paint by Frenchman Boris Diaw; the injury depleted Utah Jazz that was forced to start Jarron Collins; and the Houston Rockets, who during the course of the series, lost Yao Ming to injury a little more than 2 games in – and had to turn to a rotation of Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry and Luis Scola to battle LA’s 7 footers. Bynum gets killed – just look at the stats.

Alas, he is immune to any criticism for a great rebuttal exists: Ewing had much more experience from being a guy who actually went to college, won a National Title; and also played in the NBA for a few seasons before making the playoffs. All this is true, but nothing prevented Bynum from going to college himself – if he was really interested in experience. That said, I also took a chance to look at another young bigman, and saw how he faced the NBA pressure. David Robinson did manage to make the playoffs as a rookie (he led his team there, unlike Bynum who did his best to stay out of Kobe’s way). David Robinson is far from my favorite player in the world – but he also creams Bynum’s numbers when you take out experience and look just at Bynum’s FIRST FOUR SEASONS against David’s ROOKIE season.

Let’s not forget that David had to go to war against Joe Barry Carroll and the plethora of tough guys in the paint that Portland sported back when David was a rookie. Bynum, with 4 years of experience in the NBA, has yet to face anything like that in the NBA playoffs – and his numbers are completely pathetic.

Ewing: 22.1 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 2.37 bpg

Robinson: 24.4 ppg, 12.00 rpg, 4.00 bpg

Bynum: 4.83 ppg, 3.78 rpg, 0.67 bpg

Obviously the data is heavily skewed against poor, young Bynum. His first few playoff sorties were short and he was inexperienced. Obviously the stats are going to go against him when you include some of his early games. The Bynum of today is a beast though! Look at Bynum’s numbers from just his 4th season in the playoffs against other greats and you’ll see! You’ll all see!

Okay, let’s do that then.

Bynum’s Playoff stats from his 4th season, and how those stats stack up:

Bynum’s numbers improve very slightly, he ups his ppg from 4.83 to 5.58, his free throw percentage from 62.96% to 76.47% and he swats almost 0.2 more blocks per game. Still not impressed. He’s a far cry from, let’s just randomly say, Hakeem Olajuwon. In the Dream’s 4th NBA season he happened to tear the NBA playoff’s a new one with his scoring -- 37.5 ppg (57.14 fg%, 88.37 ft%); rebounding – 16.75 rpg; and all around game – 2.75 bpg, 1.75 apg, 2.25 spg.

Not only did Hakeem obliterate Bynum’s pitiful offensive output by a magnitude nearing 7x, but absolutely owned him all over the boxscore. He also did it against much tougher competition as well.

Heck, Bynum is so far from being impressive that Greg Ostertag’s fourth year playoff stats could (and do) give Bynum’s fourth year playoff stats a run for their money. It’s horrible to say, but really Lakers fans (and media, or is that redundant?) – take a look and weep.

Bynum is a much better offensive player than Ostertag (is this even saying anything?), but Ostertag owns Bynum when it comes to rebounds and blocks. Greg even managed to out-assist Bynum and made less mistakes (as seen in less turn overs and fouls per game).

What’s worse, the fact that Bynum just got his lunch handed to him by Ostertag; or the fact that Ostertag was doing this against super duper vets and talented players like Vlade, Arvydas, Dale Davis and Rasheed (when Ostertag was a 4th year player) – and looking better than media adored Bynum going up against Chuck Hayes and the guy who was behind Ostertag on the depth chart?

Furthermore, Bynum’s had 5 scoreless games in the playoffs, out of 18. And he’s scored less than 5 points 11 times out of 18. Ouch.

Take a look at Hakeem’s 37.5 ppg average again. Ouch.

Of course, there HAS to be a rebuttal for this . . . no way can Bynum been so far behind Hakeem at the same stage of NBA experience, and yet so close to NBA laughingstock Greg Ostertag . . . right?  . . . .right? Don’t worry Lakers fans, of course there is . . . forget about NBA experience, that’s a flawed concept. Let’s not forget that Hakeem and Greg both played college ball (like Ewing and Robinson did) . . . Bynum didn’t play college. Look at how young he is! He’s only 21! Surely when you take that into account it makes up for 32 ppg (in the case of Hakeem), or nearly a block and a half (in the case of Ostertag)!!!

Okay, let’s take at a look at that. Try me.

Bynum’s Playoff stats as a 21 year old, and how those stats stack up against another 21 year old:

Bynum is a very brittle 21 year old who doesn’t have to do anything, and his team makes it to the NBA Finals. I’m not lying, the Lakers did that last season. That said, Bynum is a force of nature, and the future of the center position in the NBA. His 21 year old production is unrivaled. Right? Wrong. Take a look at this guy, and what he did in the playoffs at the tender age of 21 (his 2nd season in the L, not his 4th like Bynum). I just have one hyphenated word to describe this: Shaq-Attaq.

A lot of the same Lakers fans who champion Bynum marginalize how great Shaq was. I can clearly see why Kobe went out of his way to suggest that Bynum needed to be traded – because Kobe knew how good Shaq was. The difference between the two is quite telling when you look at these two centers at the age of 21, Bynum in his 4th season and Shaq in his 2nd.

The difference between the two was almost 15 points, 10 rebounds and over 2 blocks and almost 2 assists . . . in favor of the 2nd year player.

That’s a huge difference.

The difference between being called one of the best bigmen of all time, and being called a bust.

Bynum was a lotto pick man, and aside from his inspired dirty play in injuring two guys this season, and being afraid of Fesenko in the paint, he’s done nothing to earn the high praise that’s heaped on him. And he’s done nothing to make me feel like giving him any props.

His current playoff run isn’t over yet, and he’s got one, most likely two more playoff series to make his 2008-2009 playoffs slightly more memorable than his complete no-show in the 2007-2008 playoffs.

I’m taking it easy on Bynum here by comparing him to guys that he may yet one-day reach . . . even if it doesn’t seem like it. I could really try to down him if I wanted by comparing him to his contemporaries who are out-playing him right now. For example take Dwight Howard -- in his first 14 playoff games: 17.86 ppg (57.23 fg%, 51.72 ft%), 15.5 rpg, 2.71 bpg, 1.14 apg, 0.714 spg . . . those numbers are way better than Bynum’s. Also better are Dwight’s numbers as a 21 year old and Dwight’s numbers in his 4th NBA season.

If I really wanted to be a dick I’d mention that Dwight also has 3 less leg injuries. I’m not a dick though, so I’m not going to mention that.

 

 

What did we learn?

What did we learn? Well, for starters we learned that Andrew Bynum’s playoff performances leave much to be desired. His first 18 games in the playoffs pales in comparison to Ewing’s numbers over the same situations – and Ewing played against much better defensive clubs like Michael’s Bulls and the Bad Boy Pistons. We learned that David Robinson’s rookie season playoff numbers invalidates the argument that Bynum’s rookie numbers shouldn’t count. We also learned that Hakeem’s numbers as a fourth year player completely eclipse Bynum’s as a 4th year player. I didn’t even have to look up 2nd tier NBA centers like Rik Smits at all after I found out that at the same level of NBA experience that Greg Ostertag’s playoff performance was a wash with that of Bynum’s. Lastly, we learned that Bynum can’t even hide behind his age as an excuse for how poor his performances have been – as Shaq as a 21 year old eats Bynum up. Ultimately, we learned that it’s a bit too premature to call Bynum anything other than a bust at this stage. He’s much closer to Ostertag, albeit one who rebounds and blocks less, and fouls and turns the ball over more, than he is to being one of the greatest bigmen of all time – let alone in his own generation.

After all, Dwight’s numbers at each break down (first x number of games, 4th NBA season, and at age 21) are vastly superior to Bynum’s. Oh yeah, also Bynum has a history of injury problems to the same parts of his body and young guys who sustain so many injuries in short succession tend to have injury plagued careers. Yeah, I wasn’t supposed to mention that again . . . I guess I am a dick after all.

Bynum doesn’t deserve his hype until he does something. Something other than sucking when it counts, that is.

If you liked the stat breakdown, and would like a full version at full resolution, click on the image below. I dunno, maybe you are just into making Bynum look silly . . . or want a stat heavy window’s desktop wallpaper . . . or both? Go nuts!

NBA Stars Back in the Day . . .

I got this from over here, and props to them for finding it. It's kind of entertaining to see some of the 'personality' of these stars stay consistent from way back then: for example Alonzo Mourning looks like he wants to fight, Kobe is smug because he's popular, and Magic is a smiling fool. I do agree with the author of that post that I am stealing this from (ethanator1088) that Larry Bird looks like he was born during the depression according to this picture. Anyway . . . enjoy the video.

Here's the full list of kids pics:
Allen Iverson Kevin Garnett Emanuel Ginobili Baron Davis Emeka Okafor Shaquille O'Neal Pau Gasol Dennis Rodman Devin Harris Shawn Kemp (looks like LeBron's dad . . . I'm just saying) Yao Ming Tony Parker Kobe Bryant Larry Johnson Vince Carter Tim Duncan Charles Barkley Mike Bibby Alonzo Mourning
Andrei Kirilenko Dwyane Wade John Stockton Kenyon Martin Magic Johnson Anfernee Hardaway Scottie Pippen Sebastian Telfair (with cousin Stephon) Reggie Miller	Dirk Nowitzki Larry Bird Karl Malone Pete Maravich Grant Hill Dominique Wilkins Steve Francis Jason Williams Paul Pierce Patrick Ewing (looking to be sponsored) Michael Jordan

Fun stuff . . . the song is kind of down-tempo though, so if you like Sarah McLachlan then you'll like this. (and really, who doesn't own a few of her albums already . . .)

Hoops-pedia: Game of Destiny

Hoops-pedia is a new section (but not a weekly one like YouTube Tuesdays or Flashback Friday) where I would like to take some time to explain something about the game -- be it a play, or a rule, or terminology or something. Often I use terms that are only really known to me and those I regularly discuss basketball with. That's fine and good for those people and I, but not for the general population (i.e. the rest of the world) who are unfamiliar with that term. Hence . . . the necessity of Hoops-pedia. [Of course, there already is a web page named "hoopedia" which was the original name of this section until I typed it in to Google and found out that I shouldn't use that name.]

Anyway, today's Hoops-pedia is about the elusive Game of Destiny. This is a term only to be used in the most reverent ways. We all have Games of Destiny in our lives. They are not just limited to NBA players, or even professional athletes. Every kid in high school who sticks around after school to shoot hoops to the older guys (like me) who lace it up at the YMCA are allowed at least one Game of Destiny in their lives. The Game of Destiny is bigger than basketball though, it's in life when you do the best you can, better than even you thought you ever could -- this is when it becomes a Moment of Destiny. (i.e. something ridiculously great like fighting off a bear with your bare hands in order to save your pregnant sister's life or something . . . while blindfolded and exorcising your demons by finally overcoming your crippling fear of fighting bears)

In the small scale world of the NBA, the Game is Destiny is best realized when a guy with limited talent, Basketball IQ, playing time or heart puts it all together and helps his team win. While it may not be the best example, I look at the game back in the 1997-1998 season where Adam Keefe had a Game of Destiny.

Adam Keefe was probably a better volleyball player than basketball player -- but he had a few things going for him. He was 6'8, and he could jump all day. This allowed him to bat lose balls in the direction of more talented team mates, and surprise people by blocking their shots. He was a starter on an NBA Finals team -- but his NBA career (and relative skill level) was nothing to write home about. He did play in 681 games (regular season and playoffs combined) in the NBA, which is more than I ever will. For a 10th pick in the Draft he didn't really wow people, and ended up with career averages of 5.0 ppg (.502 fg, .714 ft) and 4.1 rpg in about 16.7 mpg. He's nearly a double double guy if you extrapolate his stats to 36 mpg (10.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg career) -- but no team would wish to play him that much. The most he has ever averaged in a season was 25.6 mpg for the Jazz back in 1997-1998. Essentially, he was Jerry Sloan's Matt Harpring before Harpring was even on the Jazz. A gritty, scrappy, under-athletic garbageman.

On March 22, 1998 the Utah Jazz were finishing up their 2nd Eastern Conference 5 Game Road Trip of the month with a game at MSG, in New York City against the Knicks. This game was a great game, as the Jazz ended up coming back from down by 17 (11 in the 4th) to win in Double Overtime 124-119. Karl Malone had 30 points (55% fg, 8/10 fts), 14 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 blocks. John Stockton had 22 points (61.5fg%, 2-3 3pts), 14 assists, 3 steals and 3 rebounds. If you just look at the boxscore, and the boxscore alone it would appear that they were the main reasons why the Jazz defeated a very deep Knicks team (Charles Oakley, John Starks, Larry Johnson, Charlie Ward, Allen Houston, Chris Childs, Chris Mills, Terry Cummings, and injured Patrick Ewing) that was coached by Jeff Van Gundy. If you watched the game live on NBC (like I did), or the YouTube videos of this game, you may notice that Adam Keefe was huge.

You may just notice that Adam Keefe had a Game of Destiny!

Keefe played 41 minutes in the game, shot 8/10 from the floor and 9/11 at the line for a whopping 25 points (or the same number of points as how many points Allen Houston scored as the primary option for a team in a game that goes to double overtime). He had 7 boards, 2 assists and 2 steals to boot. The scorekeepers at MSG cheated and took away the 2 blocks he also had. Just as a point of reference, that season Keefe averaged 7.8 ppg and did not regularly shoot 80% from the floor, . . . but he did in that game. And the Jazz needed it -- as everyone but John and Karl were having horrible games -- even John was missing gimmie shots, getting the ball stolen from him, and shooting 50% at the FT line, Hornacek was missing three throws as well. I would embed part of the game, but the YouTube user TRJ22487 has disabled that method of sharing videos . . . so here's the link instead -- watch Adam Keefe show all the other garbagemen in the NBA how to have a proper Game of Destiny! (It is a really interesting game, so if you have half an hour to kill on YouTube, click away -- this link is only for a section of the end of the 4th quarter though, and does not include any of the over-time periods, you will have to click on the next videos for those).

Flashback Friday: All-Star Game Introduction Rap

This has already made the rounds quite a bit, but well, it's been a long week with few postings . . . maybe next week will be better . . .

It's from the 1988-1989 All-Star Game that was played in Houston. (Karl Malone was the MVP of this game . . .)

Flashback Friday: Greg Ostertag

Some knew him as someone to boo viciously. Other's knew him as a kind giant who gave his own kidney to his sister. Still, other people lauded him as champion or hero for his general, non-specific goofy ways. What we do know is that he played great in one of the final games of a contract year -- arguably outplaying a Hall of Fame center to be -- and cashing that performance to the bank for $39 million dollars. This only caused other people to boo him even more. Also, he got scored on a lot.

Greg Ostertag did not really pan out to reach his potential. What he did do in heaps was frustrate his coaches, his team mates, and mostly, his fans. He would alternate between being an integral defensive force and being a dispassionate bystander as other players shot the ball over his un-outstretched hands. His, truly, was a career defined by moments. Some highlights include: outplaying Tim Duncan during Duncan's rookie year in the Rocky Mountain Review; drop kicking the ball into the stands during a game; losing his dentures during a game; losing his contact lens during a shoot around scuffle with Shaquille O' Neal; being universally recognized for being poor on offense; being universally scored on by all manner of player; being a big goofy white guy. (you know, like dancing around in a purple Speedo)

What's lost in all of the spectacle that is Greg Ostertag happens to be the fact that he was a pretty good basketball player. While his love will always be outdoors activities, he grew up playing baseball -- but he continued to grow and grow. Ultimately when you get as tall as he gets you just 'ought' to be playing basketball. He was not going to replace Mark Eaton in the history books. Did Ostertag love the game? Probably not. Did Ostertag play the game? Certainly.

If you look over his career, you see that he carved out a little niche doing a few things well. First of all, dude blocked himself nearly 13k shots. He probably changed twice as many by just being in the area and getting his hand near the ball. For his career he almost blocked 2.0 shots a game. If you extrapolate his playing time to 36 mpg (his career average is only 19.5 with a season high of 27.9 in 1998-1999) that gets him a 3.2 career bpg average.

Sticking with blocks, how does he fare compared to blocking shots vs. fouling guys. He has a career 1293 blocked shots. He has a career 1873 fouls. That's not that great, it's *only* 0.69; for a point of reference, Eaton gets a value of 1.04 blocks / one foul. So compared to a guy who's won Defensive Player of the Year twice, he's about 0.3 off. (note, this is for his career, at Ostertag's peak his metric was 0.94) How does this compare with anyone currently on the Jazz roster?

Andrei Kirilenko	1.04	Kyrylo Fesenko	0.47 (0.51 NBA-DL)	Paul Millsap	0.29
Mehmet Okur	0.24	Morris Almond	0.20 (0.22 NBA-DL)	Ronnie Brewer	0.16
Carlos Boozer	0.16	Kyle Korver	0.12	Jarron Collins	0.08
C.J. Miles	0.08	Deron Williams	0.08	Matt Harpring	0.06
Brevin Knight	0.05	Ronnie Price	0.04	Kosta Koufos	Rookie -- no stats

Yeah, that 0.69 career blocks/fouls average doesn't look so shabby now, eh?

As good/bad/ugly as Greg Ostertag was, he was a certain kind of good/bad/ugly that I've previously alluded towards being one of the final hurdles towards our current Jazz team from being a serious contender. What kind of good/bad/ugly does Ostertag bring to a team -- and what did he bring to our team? First of all, he is 7'2 with long arms; and he blocks shots and rebounds well enough. He was never a threat to grab 10+ rpg, as his playing time fluctuated ridiculously according to the whims of Jerry Sloan. Most good teams have a big guy just like that who stands tall in the paint and discourages people from going in there with the intention to score on his basket. Tyson Chandler is exactly this guy, and the Hornets are lucky to have him. As of today, the Utah Jazz have no such player on their roster -- and the lack of a true defensive center who blocks shots continues to be a major tactical disadvantage.

Utah has used 3 of their last 5 NBA Draft picks on 21+ feet of center. Kyrylo Fesenko (7'1), Kosta Koufos (7'0) and Ante Tomic (7'1) satisfy the height requirement. Other guys on the team are long for their heights (Kirilenko, Brewer and Millsap), but all of those guys are under 6'10. So unless some sort of trade happens, the only way that the Jazz will have a tall, interior defender who blocks shots and rebounds will fall to the tall shoulders of one of those three Europeans. If I had to put my money on someone to be the 'next'-Ostertag I'd say it would be Fesenko. He's big and funny, and white of course; and he seems to be the only one who has a clue how to play defense without fouling.

It's funny, that the Jazz are so close to being a contender in the ever dangerous West -- but are apparently one Ostertag short. I guess it proves the old adage correct -- sometimes you just don't appreciate what you have until you no longer have it.