Showing posts with label Rocky Mountain Review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rocky Mountain Review. Show all posts

Saturday, February 21, 2009

"To be honest with you Diane, I'm surprised..."

You may not know where that quote is from, so just to get it over with . . . watch this.

This season has been surprising for a variety of reasons, and there are some things that have surprised me immensely; though, I was probably not as surprised as Erica up above was, the point needs to be said: this run on sentence features the word "surprise" a surprisingly large number of times. In celebration of me murdering the English language, here are the Top 5 surprises of the Utah Jazz season so far:

5. Record against Eastern Conference teams:

*B*east

Right now the Jazz are sitting at 32-23. Over that span the Jazz have gone 22-11 against the Western Conference, that's not too shabby when you look at how injured they have been. Over a closer inspection, though, this reveals that the Jazz have gone 10-12 against the East so far this season. That's pathetic. Sure, 7 of those 12 losses have been on the road (on brutal road trips); but that means that the Jazz have lost to the East 5 times ON THEIR OWN HOMECOURT! Chicago, New Jersey, Miami, Orlando and Cleveland have all beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City. It's bad enough to lose to contenders on your homer court, but to lose to teams like the Bulls, Heat and Nets is just inexcusable. I remember that Orlando game vividly, the Jazz were pounding Orlando, I felt good about the game and went out to get some "drive thu" at halftime. When I came back the Jazz were getting killed. What happened? For whatever reason, the Jazz have sucked against the east this season . . . it's one thing to have the Cavs sweep you, but the Bulls also? Yeeesh!

4. Kyle Korver's shooting:

Oct 9 2008 [Melissa Majchrzak NBAE/Getty Images] Kyle shoots it

Remember the good old days, last season, when Korver shot 47.4 fg%, 38.8 3pt% and 91.7 ft%? Those were good days, weren't they? They were not career highs for Kyle (save for fg%) but he came to the Jazz with shooting percentages that boasted career averages of over 40% from deep and 88% from the stripe. I even felt that he would improve after a Utah Jazz training camp (based on the premise that Hornacek's percentages all went up from his half a season with the Jazz to his first full season). Well, this season he's been fighting through a wrist injury on his shooting hand that has seriously impacted his shot making ability. It hasn't hurt any other parts of his game as he's boarding better, playing remarkably solid defense for stretches . . . and he's still getting the same TYPES of shots that he was making last season (i.e. waaaay open shots within the Jazz offense). That said, here are his numbers this season through the 51 games he has played so far:

40.9 FG% 34.7 3PT% 85.5 FT%

Sure, they are not that bad, especially not his FT and 3PT percentages compared to the average guard off the bench in the NBA, but let's not forget that shooting is Kyle's speciality. He's shooting 7% worse from the floor than he did last season. His three point percentage is a CAREER LOW right now (wasn't he supposed to be our three point ace?) and his FT% used to be sky high (90+ %) but has leveled off quite a bit.

3. Kosta Koufos is a lot better than I thought he would be:

Nov 21 2008 [D Clarke Evans NBAE/Getty Images] Kosta throws it down with two hands

I like Kosta, he seems like an amazing person and an amazing team mate. He's very coachable and works very hard. I did not know that he was as good as he has shown, though. I did probably over analyze his games over the Rocky Mountain Review, but I'm happy to say that he's not the same player that we all first saw. Back then he was a guy who almost shot the ball as frequently as once every 2 minutes on the floor, was a dead-eye FT shooter (90.9 ft%) and had a 38.1 fg%. Really, check out the stats. Instead he's a guy who is giving the Jazz almost 5 ppg (51 fg%, 70 ft%), 3 rpg, and nearly 1 bpg -- as a rookie. It's surprising that we aren't seeing more of him. I appraised him and his first season as one of learning, working hard, and being much more offensively gifted than Fesenko was as a rookie. I was correct on all of those counts; though, I thought that he would have at least spent some time down with the NBA-DL . . . but Jerry has hardly used that at all this season.

2. The Boozer/Millsap conundrum:

Nov 3 2008 [Stephen Dunn NBAE/Getty Images] Carlos spins inside
Dec 2 2008 [Rocky Widner NBAE/Getty Images] Millsap goes inside
 

I think that Boozer is pretty much what anyone would want from a power forward statistically. He scores very efficiently and rebounds like a man possessed. Millsap doesn't have the offensive polish of Boozer, but in times where 'Sap got playing time, he was able to produce some really eye-opening numbers. This is how I felt at the beginning of the season, and still, it's hard to get away from my thoughts which suggest that Boozer is a quality NBA starter (just not on man to man defense), and Paul Millsap is a Top 10 Bench player in the NBA. There's a fine line that should distinguish these two (and no, I don't mean salary), and at times this season Millsap has shown himself to be the equal, better, or in some cases, lesser of Carlos Boozer -- at times blurring this line, and other times justifying it.

Arguments can (and have been) made to suggest one is better than the other, but really, shouldn't we be happy to have both -- together!?! (Even if it's just for the short term?) Boozer can do things Millsap can't, and vice versa. Millsap's play this season (mostly as a starter as Boozer has been injured for 43 games) may have pushed his going rate to higher than the Jazz may be willing to pay -- if they intend on keeping both players. This is a surprise to me, because I felt as though Millsap was a great younger player, but not a guy knocking on the door of a $8+ million dollar a year contract. How many of you out there on the Internet thought he would be worth as much?

1. All the Injuries / The Jazz record despite all the Injuries:

I don't really need to spell this one out, but I'm really surprised at all the injuries -- and even more surprised by being so many games over .500 -- I guess this is why you have to play the games though, right? Just read this for more information.

Friday, October 17, 2008

The D League is not poop.

It's come to my attention that I may have been overly critical of the NBA developmental league. In my defense, I don't think I was clear in my original statements, so allow me to elucidate my point of view. I do not think that the D league is poop. In fact, I think I enjoy the NBA DL on more pure levels than I love the NBA. I've longed for a real farm system in the NBA for years and I'm happy that we finally have that (though not every team has their own affiliate). The NBA DL is a fantastic place filled with stories of hard work and a path to greater glory. Personally, I think a guy like Randy Livingston should be the first guy in the NBA-DL Hall of Fame as a player (at least on some life time achievement level at least).

Without sounding like one of those "some of my best friends are _______ (insert previously maligned group name)" after the fact apologies I do have to say that I watch NBA-DL games even when my team isn't playing. Some people love the NBA developmental league more than I do, and that's cool . . . but I wanted to say sorry if I sounded like I thought it was pointless.

Posting up . . . okay in Orem, not ok in SLC . . .

I just think that in the selfish world of making Morris Almond a better NBA player he's only going to get better by playing against other NBA players. (Like defending other NBA guys, or getting passes, screens and so forth from other NBA guys) This was the number one observation I made after watching him play in the Rocky Mountain Review a few months ago. His ceiling is pretty much maxed out in Orem.

That's my personal opinion. I know that the Jazz keep close ties to the Flash, and Jerry Sloan's nephew is the head coach down there in Orem . . . but that doesn't mean that there is complete equivalency between the two systems.

There just cannot be, because there is such a talent gap. In Orem Almond may drive the ball to the free throw line, have defenders prevent him from shooting a good shot, and have him reverse the ball to an open Kevin Kruger . . . only for him to brick an open jumper.

Photographed by someone for NBAE, I'm guessing . . . and here's is Almond posting up, when was the last time the Jazz posted up a SG (or SF, for that matter) in the course of a regular game? They almost exclusively get the ball off of screens and cuts, not post ups. Something tells me that these are plays that don't help Almond get better for Sloan's non-SG posting up offense.

Though, Kruger is a statistically accurate shooter for a guard at 43.5 fg% and 38.8 3pt%, I've seen this happen more often that I'd wish for. If Almond was playing with the Jazz a) he'd be passing the ball to NBA talent, and b) Deron would be the one driving, and Morris would be the guy with the open shot.

In some ways I get the feeling that KOC, Sloan and the rest of the Jazz brass may look at the NBADL as a chance to ship people off to (and have them improve magically) while not really developing them directly; or even worse, just a place to stash someone who is on contract and forget about unless there are injuries to the senior team. (Like what happened with Fesenko last season when Boozer and Memo went down and he had a whale of a game against the LA Lakers in a Jazz win)

When C.J. Miles went to the d-league he was 18 years old and had no college experience -- it clearly helped him both times he was sent down. Morris Almond is in a different situation has he'll be 22 this season, and had 4 years of college. (And he already spent most of the season with the farm team, so he's experienced that already)

I think that guys like Kosta and Fesenko need the farm team, because it can help them get better for playing with the senior team. The farm system has helped guys before in the past (like CJ). I just fail to see the long term utility of it for SPECIFICALLY Morris Almond.

That's just my two cents. In closing: NBA D-League is awesome, I just would rather Almond play 10 mpg for the Jazz and get into 60 games under Sloan than play 35 mpg with the Flash and end up playing in 10 NBA games this season.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Things to look for this season: Morris Almond

If you've been following this blog for a while (perhaps by some court ordered mandate or potential Gitmo torture method) you may have noticed that I associate C.J. Miles' trials and tribulations to that of the works of Shakespeare. (And really, it's almost apt!) Morris Almond (or 'Mobe' as I like to call him) requires a whole other author to describe him -- probably Charles Dickens. Most specifically the whole "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" bit from A Tale of Two Cities. For Almond the two cities are -- obviously -- Salt Lake City, Utah and Orem, Utah. These are the respective homes of the NBA's Utah Jazz and the NBA-DL's Utah Flash franchises.

Orem, Utah Salt Lake City, Utah
Between the legs jump shot, why not? Hustle? What is this hustle you speak of? (Oct 9 2008 [Steve C Wilson AP Photo] )

Morris Almond is the star player for the Utah Flash, the NBA-DL's Impact player of the year who gave teams 50 twice that year and was involved in everything from the All-Star game, H.O.R.S.E. and set league scoring records.

In the Salt Lake he is a guy who only gets burn in garbage time, and seems to be unremarkable in any distinct way . . . save for his lack of hustle on defense and below average quickness and court vision. (3 assists last season, total)

Morris Almond is coming off quite the 'tale of two cities' Rookie campaign in 2007-2008 -- if it wasn't made absolutely clear by now already. This season his Rocky Mountain Review Summer League ball had ups and downs, but over all it showed us that he is a dynamite scorer with NBA ready moves -- but does not really grasp the team game yet (hence the name "Mobe", like "Kobe"). His work so far in the Pre-Season has been -- pretty much -- more of the same of what we expect of him -- just in less minutes.

  • 8 points per game
  • 12 FGM - 29 FGA (41.4 FG%)
  • 7.25 Field Goals Attempted per Game
  • 1 Shot for ever 2.45 minutes played
  • 1 - 3 from the three point line (33.3 3pt%)
  • 7 - 9 at the free throw line (77.8 ft%)
  • 1.5 rebounds per game (RPG)
  • 0.25 assists per game (APG)
  • 0.50 steals per game (SPG)
  • 1.25 turn overs per game (TOpg)
  • 17:45 average minutes per game (MPG)

Ideally he'd have more than 1 assist in 4 pre-season games -- but let's not forget that is probably better than what he was getting in Summer League this past season. Some of his troubles must stem from the fact that he is essentially two different people depending on if he's with the Jazz or the Flash. In Orem his role is that of 'The Man' and he knows that on every offensive possession his team has the best chance of making a bucket if the ball goes through him. It's pretty much a continuation of what he had to deal with his last two seasons at Rice in the NCAA's. When he's wearing a Jazz uniform it's completely different -- he's at the bottom of the totem pole and his role is completely different. The offense doesn't run through him, it's his job to be a cog in the larger Utah Jazz offensive machine.

In some ways we kind of know who he is, and what he can do -- there's very little benefit to having him run in the NBA-DL anymore because it's not like that improves him as a player, nor does it better prepare him to play with the Jazz (as what the Flash need out of him is pretty much the opposite of what Jerry Sloan wants to see from him). That said, what three things should we look forward to this season from Morris Almond?

  1. Pass the Rock more -- Being a good offensive player is more than just being able to give other teams' buckets. If he's not going to get on with the hustling, rebounding and defending -- the least he can do is learn the playbook and make passes. I'm sure it's quite discouraging to actually pass the ball to an open guy in the NBA Developmental League, only to have him clang the shot. I watched every Summer League Game and I saw Morris passing the ball, only for his team (and his boxscore) to be rewarded with nothing. Pretty much he's been somewhat classically conditioned to dislike passing. Here I am being all Mr.Psychology and getting past the FA-err and try to figure out why he's seen as an offensive black hole. Whatever the cause, he has to break out of it. My solution would be with the Cognitive-Behavioral therapy of systematic desensitization. Basically, the more time he plays with other guys who can make shots the more and more he'll understand that positive results can happen when he passes the ball. He hasn't really played with good players (even in garbage time he's running out there with Jarron Collins, and not Mehmet Okur), so it's not like he's had good targets. If he's running around against second string guys with Korver, AK and Millsap I'm sure we'll see some more passes -- after all, passing is contagious.
  2. Get caught up in a numbers game -- See what I did there? I put him on the bench in our team in Salt Lake City . . . I guess assuming that a) Brewer and Miles start and b) Harpring is still out for part of the season. The grim reality is that there are too many talented people for too few minutes. (96 total at the wings -- Brewer and Andrei need at least 30, and Kover needs around 20, so that leaves 16 TOTAL to be divided between C.J., Morris and Harpring) If you just take out guys playing small forward there's only 48 minutes to go round for four guys -- which is just insane any way you slice it. The time Morris does see on NBA courts are going to be high pressure situations for him as he tries to make a name for himself and earn more playing time. Basically this could just lead to him jacking a lot of shots as that's probably what he does best. That's quickly not going to fly with the Jazz brass, and even though it doesn't make him better, makes it harder for him to adjust to his role on the Jazz, and reinforces bad habits -- eventually may lead to him playing the majority of this 2008-2009 season in Orem . . . just like last year.
  3. Take it out on the NBA-DL -- And that's just going to make him angry, and cause him to go all Hulk like on the NBA-DL out of frustration. (After all, he can audition for other teams that way, as it's filled with scouts, and after he drops 50 a few times next year some Shooting Guard anemic teams may drop Kevin O'Connor an e-mail or two).

I may be in the minority here, but I really think that the bad parts of the NBA-DL outweigh the benefits of sending Morris down there. I don't know what they do down there in Flash practice, but when it's game time they want to win, and they do that by having Almond shoot a lot. I only watched about 5 or 6 Flash games last season, and it doesn't look like they do anything but post him up, or run plays for him. Jerry doesn't call those plays in Utah -- so it's not like sending him down there makes him any better prepared for playing for Jerry. The best way to make him earn playing time with the Jazz is to -- I dunno -- have him be on the active roster? And for the record, he had more asissts per game with the Flash than Harpring did with the Jazz (and with better shooters) . . . I just say put Harp on the IR, and have Almond and others take his place. (unless we are playing Ron Artest or Carmelo Anthony -- he completely takes those guys out of their games)

Wow . . . possibly the best ever pre-season game?

Remember that game that I mentioned below, the one that was supposed to be the worst ever pre-season game? Well, turns out that I was wrong. (And not the last time for that either . . . ) Paul Millsap did play, and so too did Andrei Kirilenko. Furthermore Gerry McNamara played for the Jazz as well. 'Melo suited up for the Nuggets and the game went into over time and ended 120-119 in favor of the home team. That seems pretty exciting . . . especially with some of the crazy passes and plays that we got to see. (And a special appearance by Mateen Cleaves)

Deron did his work (22 and 8), Almond took his shots (11 fga), C.J. played point (which I WAS right about) and AK made some good blocks (3) and assists (3). All of that is great but we need to make a special point to laud the Rookie Kosta Koufos for some really good play!

Kosta finished the game with 11 points (5-7 fg, 0-4 ft, 1-1 3pt), 7 rebounds (3 offensive), 1 block and 1 assist. Additionally, it seems like only one of our two young center prospects can have a good game on any given day -- as Fes finished with 1 rebound in 5 less minutes of action.

But back to Kosta, he hit a three in OT to make it a one point game, so that was pretty clutch -- especially for a Rookie! So that's impressive. Not so was going 0-4 at the FT line when he was above 90% during the RMR.

Kosta flips it up for two Kosta is a very good FT shooter . . . just not last night though
  Photographed by Garrett W. Ellwood for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by Garrett W. Ellwood for NBAE/Getty Images

Sure that looks like the difference in a one point loss, but hey, he's a rookie so back off -- he's only going to get better. And right now he's showing glimpses of potential. He looks to be a more complete player than Fesenko (duh) -- the only problem I have is that he seems to be a bit redundant. (Not like the Jazz don't draft for redundancy, because they do) I don't have a problem with bigmen who can shoot the ball, it's just that is not a problem for the Jazz. The Jazz need a cro-magnon in the paint who will throw his body around, give dangerous looks, and play rough. So far Kosta shows a lot of finesse. He'll get better though. Kongrats Kosta Koufos! And keep it up!

Monday, October 13, 2008

Fi-nal-ee . . . It's haa-ped . . . to me!

CeCe Peniston (not to be confused with Carlos' boss, CeCe Boozer) is overjoyed by the news of Jerry Sloan calling out Kosta Koufos for shooting the damn ball so much. I must admit that I'm happy about it too. Kosta shoots the ball so damn much -- and the media never criticizes him for this (instead they heap insane amounts of love upon him, everything from him being an NBA ready talent to being the #2 center or power forward on the roster) -- that it has forced me into siding with the underdog Fesenko out of the two prospects.

Hopefully Kosta's last game of offensive quantity (5 FGA) over quality (0 FGM) will FI-NAL-EE open up the floodgates of criticism. DJ and PK (morning sports talk radio personalities on 1320 KFAN) even started to hint that (through quoting Sloan), perhaps, Kosta wasn't going to be an All-Star this season. Quoted in the Deseret News today, Sloan had this to say:

"Now Koufos is a little different story. I don't know what that was. He shot it every time he touched [the ball] . . . [When asked if Kosta had a green light to shoot he replied that] He's got a green light to go rebound. He's got a green light to pick up loose balls, and those things that young guys should do when they step out on the floor . . . he can shoot the ball, and that's one of his strengths. When he's been open, he's probably been told to shoot it (previously). But we'd like for him to fake to the other guys once in a while, just to let them known they're in the same game." (Jerry Sloan, 2008, via Desert News)

His shooting is almost as ugly as he looks
Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images CeCe Peniston "Finally" [3:58], (thanks SuperNudel!)not officially a song about the media (and Jazz Coaches) recognizing that Kosta Koufos isn't the best thing since sliced bread, and that he shoots the ball way too much for a rookie.

Kosta's cumulative shooting stats have been unimpressive. I know, I have it all on a spreadsheet. All of his professional experience exists as a pretty small sample size . . . 8 games . . . but I can only work with what I have, right? Koufos was purported to be some sort of offensive stud -- or at the very least, NBA ready on offense. (not entirely unlike Mehmet Okur) He shoots a bad percentage, and shoots the ball a lot. Which is only compounded by the fact that he shoots a bad percentage. Which looks even worse because he shoots the ball a lot. Sound like I'm repeating myself? I think I am, but so far no one has been listening.

Mr.Koufos has shot the ball 42 times in the Rocky Mountain Review. So far he has shot the ball 6 times in 2008-2009 Preseason games. That's a total of 48 times. Out of those 48 times, how many has he actually made? 17. What's that as a percentage? 35.4 fg -- which is pretty shabby if he was drafted partly because he was a good offensive player.

Shoot it man, its Greg Oden, you can totally make this shot!

Shooting the ball 48 times in 8 games doesn't look that bad though -- that's only shooting the ball 6 times per game. The problem is how often he plays. He played 96:40 minutes in the RMR, and so far has played around 11 minutes in the Preseason. That's around 107:40 total minutes. Right now I'm going to show you his ratio of shots taken and minutes played. This is simply 48 shots : 107:40 mins = 1 shot : x

How often does he shoot the ball, then? Once every 2.23 minutes. That is a very high rate for someone who shoots poorly. Carlos Boozer, who last season (2007-2008) scored over 21 ppg (at 55 fg%) shot the ball once every 2.18 minutes (1297 shots in 2827 minutes). What's the difference between 0.05 minutes? That's 3 seconds. Does Kosta Koufos, a 19 year old rookie who shoots the ball 35 fg%, NEED to be shooting the ball 3 seconds less frequently than a two time All-Star and two time Olympian who is the primary scoring option of the team -- a guy who shoots 20% better?

Kosta shoots it over Greg Oden -- obviously a necessary shot to take! Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images

Absolutely not.

Obviously the main criticism of my point of view will be that RMR stats shouldn't count, and that his playing in some games shouldn't either -- because of how little he has been playing. Okay, well, let's get rid of the game against the Lakers where he only played 2 minutes. That means that he shot the ball 47 times in 105:40 total minutes, instead of 48 in 107:40. That he made 16 shots, instead of 17. And that he played in 7 games, and not 8. This results, ultimately, in shooting the ball once every 2.24 (as opposed to 2.23) at the whopping proficiency of 34.0 fg%. [And shooting the ball 6.7 times a game, and not 6]

Don't get me wrong, I like the kid. I think he'll be a pro in this league and play (barring injuries) at least as long as a guy like Pat Garrity or Michael Doleac. (Hopefully with a better looking career, though) Let's just slow down the hype and media love for a while, okay guys? He's not already better than Jarron Collins and Kyrylo Fesenko ('cept maybe in ft% and shooting range, where he kills those guys). He's not the back-up center, and he's definitely NOT the back-up power forward. He's going to need seasoning in the NBA-DL this next season. He'll end up shooting better, having a better shot selection, and be well on his way towards having a solid rookie season as a teen in the NBA playing on a contender. (That's to say, watching older guys play while he runs around in the NBA D-League)

I'm just happy that people are finally recognizing his fault. Sorry, CeCe and I are BOTH happy that people see these faults, and FI-NAL-EE it's happening to us . . . that we're not the only ones repeating ourselves about the empirically obvious problem of a 19 year old rookie who shoots 35 fg% shooting the ball as much as our All-Star and scoring meal ticket Carlos Boozer.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Jerry Sloan charged with murder . . .

surprisingly, this is not a real mug shot . . .

. . . or at least he should have been after how he flat out killed Morris Almond in this post game interview. (from the 2:22 point onwards) Sure, he's surly in general, especially during post game interviews -- especially pre-season losses . . . but man, it's pretty harsh. For the record, though, he did kill the entire team for the most part . . . but he saved the worst for Mobe:

"Well he scored points but I'm disappointed in the way [that Almond] runs the floor. It looks like he's not concerned with running the floor and helping defensively. We can't afford to have that, especially out of the mid-sized people. I mean, everybody likes to score but if that's all you're going to do then it's hard to play. To win: numbers are one thing, but I believe you can win with less numbers [and] more effort on [defense]. He's got to rebound the ball, pass the basketball, learn to do some other things rather than just be a one-dimensional player.

If they put a guy on you, and he's determined to stop you, and he makes you take tough shots every time you get it -- which they did tonight -- [Morris] took the tough shots  . . .when you try to take tough shots when they are guarding you, you gotta go somewhere else: pass the ball, and play within what we are trying to do. If you try to do it on your own then I've got four guys watching.

He's got to learn to compete. I don't think he's competed hard enough." (Jerry Sloan, 2008, via 1320 KFan Radio)

Ouch. I did not see the game, but his boxscore did not look too bad. Almond played 19 minutes and shot 5-10 and finished the game with those 10 points, 1 turn over and 2 fouls. It's amazing that he didn't really do anything else, so I guess Sloan has a point though.

Then again . . . his role in the offense is to be the guy who gets other people assists, not necessarily be a facilitator on offense. As a finisher if you shoot 50% on jumpers then that's not too bad, right? How many assists does Harpring get in a game? Probably the best (in a very loose meaning of 'best') is Morris Almond's self appraisal of his play in the very same game where Sloan killed him. Basically Almond feels like he's putting himself in a situation "to maximize his time on the floor". If he's maximizing his time by getting ZERO rebounds in 20 minutes of action then that sucks . . .

Almond has to do more with the time he has in the next few games otherwise he's going to be playing in Orem next season, and not in Salt Lake City. The score so far is:

Jerry Sloan 1

Morris Almond 0

Murder or not, Sloan seems right on this one. I've held the idea that if Almond played with better players that he'll actually pass more. Apparently this is not the case, but then again, I haven't seen a minute of pre-season action, so I could be wrong here too. I remember in the Rocky Mountain Review that he WAS passing the ball to open guys, but they were missing open shots. (I watched every game) He's not a big assists guy, but if he plays the right way in the right system I think he can be a solid pro. If he lives that long being coached by Jerry Sloan is entirely a different problem altogether.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Things to look for this season: Kosta Koufos

Really, what do you even hope for, as a Rookie playing in Jerry Sloan's system? I can only really name a few guys off the top of my head who actually got significant playing time as a Rookie here . . . Paul Millsap (18.0 mpg) did it when he was a rookie back in 2006-2007, Deron Williams (28.8 mpg) did so as well the season before, and before that some guy named Shandon Anderson (16.4 mpg) got burn on an NBA West Finals team. Usually, though, a rookie either doesn't have the opportunity to play, or the BBALL IQ to deserve playing.

I have a chance of being wrong here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and strongly suggest that Koufos isn't going to play in more than 30 games for the Utah Jazz this season, and he's not going to average 10 mpg in those games. [For a point of reference, Fesenko played in only 9 NBA games last season, @ a rate of 7.8 mpg per]

I think that Melissa Majchrzak is really hot . . .
  Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

So right off the bat the Ohio State product is getting put in a bad situation for him. I guess part of that just happens to be the fact that he was drafted lower than he expected, and thus, is going to a better team. I'm pretty sure that he could be a rookie producer for some other teams that are rebuilding, and don't have any good bigmen (you know, like Oklahoma) -- but he's not on such a team. He's on a team where the guys ahead of him on the depth chart are all vastly better than him at this point in time. And also there's another 7'1 prospect already on the team.

Mehmet Okur Carlos Boozer Andrei Kirilenko Paul Millsap Jarron Collins
Starting 5 Starting 4 Starting 3 Backup 4 Backup 5
Kobe, how does Dimes' taste? Sarah Palin does not have my vote AK-47 stuffing Kobe here, today this would be a foul . . . Millsap is fundamentally sound This was a new uniform back when Collins was an okay player
Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images Photograph by unknown for NBAE/Getty Images Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images Photograph by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images Photograph by unknown for NBAE/Getty Images

Okur was an All-Star back in 2006-2007 and after the All-Star break last season he averaged 17 and 10. Okur was a power forward who was converted into a center when Boozer came back from injury a few seasons back.

Booz was an All-Star in 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 and just 'won' a Gold Medal. He's one of the few 20-10 guys out there today. Boozer plays around 35 mpg, and can play either 4 or 5 depending on the team the Jazz are playing.

AK-47 is the starting 3, but at this stage you better believe that Jerry is more ready to give him big minutes at the 4 than Kosta, after all, he too was an All-Star back when he played inside the paint.

Mansap is a beast, and potentially could be good enough to mitigate any potential losses from having Boozer walk. He's short, but strong and tenacious on defense. His offensive game is highly under-rated.

Jarron Collins is a black belt jedi when it comes to flopping. He's so good at getting other people in bad situations that HE was the guy driving the golf cart when his brother got injured this off-season. He's not a very good basketball player, but he has Jerry's trust -- something Kosta does not yet have.

While Konstantine Demetrios Koufos may one day be a legit power forward of center in the league, this season he's going to be getting a lot of quality time with the Utah Flash. Well, what three things should we look out for this season from Kosta?

  1. Work hard and learn quickly: Everyone raves about his work ethic. This is really a good thing, because he's on a team where you either work hard, or you don't play. What I've seen of him so far (basically just the RMR), he is talented, and if taught, he can be a solid NBA player for many seasons. He's a very good shooter (especially from the free throw line), but Deron said it best -- what the Jazz need from him is rebounds and defense. Those two things are aspects of his game that are not quite NBA ready -- but hey, if he works hard and learns quickly they will develop quite well. Let's not forget that he's a 19 year old Rookie though, so don't expect him to be the next Moses Malone or anything, but it's not like Jarron is going to last much longer here on the Jazz.
  2. Be a better offensive player as a rookie than Fes was: This shouldn't be hard, especially when you compare the fact that Kosta is a 1st round pick who played NCAA ball and was a potential lotto pick, and Fes was some raw hulk playing in obscurity in a minor European league who was drafted in the 2nd round. Kosta has drawn comparisons to Mehmet Okur -- and as far as sweet shooting big men go, it's hard to find a better role model. That said, Fes was not horrible on offense as he did manage to shoot above 50 fg% and scored over 10 ppg for the Flash. You kind of expect Koufos to shoot the ball more (something he seems to have developed a taste for, as he shoots the ball nearly as much as Boozer does), and thus, he has an inside track on scoring more and being a quantitatively better offensive player. Fes was a beast in his departments, averaging 10.8 rpg and 2.7 bpg over 36 mpg in the D-league, and  12.9 rpg and 1.5 bpg over 36 mpg in the NBA. Kosta will, likewise, be a beast in his departments -- mainly ppg, ft% and rebounds.
  3. Split time with Fesenko all season long: It only seems plausible that Kosta will be down in the D-league when Fes is sitting on the bench (or behind it) in Salt Lake City, and they'll switch over periods of the season. The deal is that a guy on the D-league affiliate can only be called by three times during the season, and the 3rd time they have to STAY with the NBA team for the rest of the season. So I guess the Jazz brass will keep an eye on this, and the guy who does the best will be called up a 3rd time, and maybe make it on the playoff roster. If I was the coach I'd seriously think about the development of all these young guys . . . but I'm not the coach, so don't expect much from Kosta or Kyrylo this season.

Cool RMR Pictures!

Dude . . . Amar . . . stop callin' me You don't have to be completely Jazz obsessed to enjoy this (or maybe you do), but I really enjoyed BasketballJohn's pictures (via SLC Dunk) of the RMR. I'm totally going to steal all of these, but give credit where credit is due!

Thanks BBJohn! Keep up the great work!

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Things to look for this season: C.J. Miles

Ceejay had a newsworthy summer -- like last season, but even more absurd this time around. As a quick recap, C.J. opted not to play in the Rocky Mountain Review Summer League for the Jazz for the 2nd straight year (something which made life hard for him under Jerry Sloan the next season); the Jazz made him a restricted Free Agent anyway by offering him the minimum that they had to; he didn't sign that contract and played the waiting game; eventually Oklahoma City offered him a multi-million dollar, multi-year contract ($15 mill / 4 years); the Jazz then waited a full week; before finally matching the offer sheet, which it was concluded was dirt cheap. I can only hope that his 2008-2009 season will be more eventful than his off-season -- which really was 'much ado about nothing'. (He was a young RFA who was offered a pretty cheap contract for 4 years and was matched)

Jordan Farmar doesn't play defense on Shabbos The next step, now that he has some level of financial security (unless his financial planner is MC Hammer), is to actually work on getting that next contract after this one that he just signed. He does have his work cut out for him this season has he has to develop from a 'that guy who plays when we have injured starters' to 'that guy who always contributes'.

Sure, the Jazz have a legion of swingmen who can give other teams several looks:

  • Ronnie Brewer (6'7) -- starts at the 2, and can play 3
  • Andrei Kirilenko (6'9) -- starts at the 3, and can play 2
  • Kyle Korver (6'7) -- can play the 2 or the 3
  • Matt Harpring (6'7) -- can play the 3 or the 2
  • Morris Almond (6'6) -- can play the 2 or the 3
  • Paul Millsap (6'8) -- can play the 3
  • Ronnie Price (6'2) -- can play the 2

    But . . . there is only 96 minutes at the swing spots to give out to those guys -- and one other guy -- C.J. Miles. For him (or anyone) that's a lot of competition.

  • One thing that C.J. has going for him is that in his 120 game career (+8 in the playoffs), is that he just turned 21, and is the youngest out of that entire crew. Additionally, aside from Harpring and Kirilenko, he's been with the team the longest (this will be his 4th training camp with the Jazz). Essentially, he has the most NBA experience with the Jazz out of that younger shooting guard crew, while being the youngest.

    Another 'thing' that C.J. can be happy about is that the Jazz seem to do well in games where he actually starts (9 - 4 last season, 5 - 1 in the last 41 games of the regular season). In those games he has scored 11, 6, 7, 6, 8, 2, 7, 9, 2, 13, 4, 7, 29 -- which averages out to 8.5 ppg in 20 mpg. That's a nice improvement over his season averages of 5 ppg off of 11.5 mpg. He spreads the floor pretty well, and shot the ball at a very acceptable rate for a shooting guard last season: 47.9 fg%, 39.0 3pt%, 78.8 ft%. When extrapolated to playing 36 mpg he (statistically) becomes a 15.5 ppg scorer who also gets you over 4 rpg, nearly 3 apg, and nearly 2 spg. (And yes, for those who wanted to know, that's basically what Hornacek was giving the Jazz in those glory years) Should C.J. be playing 36 mpg next season, or even start for the Utah Jazz? Mostly definitely no, but he does have the tools to be a solid contributor.

    What are three things we should look for this season?

    1. Just be on the floor more -- Play in 75 games, and averaging greater than 13 mpg for the season should be a good start for Miles. His career has gone from 23 games to 37 games to 60 last season. The Jazz coaching staff should try to get him playing in almost every game by at least, the 2nd quarter -- after all, the Jazz Brass didn't sign him to a $15 million dollar contract just so he could continue collecting splinters on the bench. Kyle Korver can become a free agent, and really, the Jazz should focus on a guy like Miles who can become an okay defensive player instead of giving playing time to the pacifier that is Kyle Korver (he shuts up an immediate need, but may slow down progress in other areas).
    2. Be a better shooter -- Again, the main competition for playing time right now appears to be Kyle Korver. I do love seeing Korver knock down threes, but I do believe that the future can be Miles. In order for Miles to be on the floor more one of the things he needs to do is become a better shooter -- particularly from three and from the free throw line (two Korver specialties). For the majority of the season CJ was shooting around 43 % from three, but it tapered off as the season finished. He needs to finish above 40% to be considered a really good three point shooter. Additionally, as a guard he needs to be hitting above 80% from the free throw line. I'm not expecting him to become one of those 88-92 ft% shooters, but he needs to be better than Deron Williams for sure. (If he's not, then there's no point in having him in the game at the end of the game when the other team is fouling) If he's going to get playing time at all, it should be at shooting guard, and if he's going to get playing time at shooting guard, he has to be at least comparable to his competition there. He needs to be a high 40%/40+%/80+% guy. Right now he's a high 40%/high 30%/high 70% guy. Korver's career averages (5 seasons) are 40+%/40+%/high 80%. [With the Jazz last season Kover was a 47.4 fg%/38.8 3pt%/91.7ft% guy] For Ceejay to take some of Kyle's minutes, he's going to have to shoot that efficiently, or near to it.
    3. Continue getting better on defense -- One thing that Ceejay can get better at is on defense. He's only going to get increasingly stronger, and right now is miles (if you excuse the pun) ahead of Korver in terms of foot speed, quickness, lateral quickness and athleticism. For example, Korver plays more minutes per game, but gets less steals than Miles. At some point, Jerry Sloan is going to buckle and end up playing whomever can play defense better . . . and Miles has the tools to get better (especially when you factor in that he's only 21 and he's going into his 4th season in the NBA), Korver is going to be 27 by the time the playoffs roll around this season, and he's not getting any younger, or quicker. Eventually C.J. Miles should get better at defense (keep improving at his current rate, he doesn't need to make a quantum leap), and he should eventually start to play more regularly, and more minutes per game.

    Basically, what we need to look for this season is the continued improvement of CJ, he's a young player still, but he's not a rookie, or someone who doesn't understand the game. He's going into his 4th season, and as such, his expectations should be higher than that of someone like Morris Almond. Look for improvement, and if he is able to display said improvement, he should get more playing time. Deron Williams is a huge CJ fan and suggests that we should expect as much. [They were both picked by the Jazz in the 2005 NBA Draft, and both were raised and went to high school in Dallas, Texas]

    Tuesday, September 16, 2008

    YouTube Tuesdays! The man they call Mobe

    As far as roster depth at SG goes, it's not like the Jazz brass are in a bad spot. Sure, there's no Superstar playing SG in our offense, but it's not like our offense is built around a Superstar Guard who takes a lot of shots either. Do any of the Jazz guards have what it takes to be a superstar? Probably not, but out of what they currently have, you can clearly see that at least ONE of them may one day be an NBA All-Star. Having to divvy up 48 minutes between three point ace Kyle Korver, super athletic Ronnie Brewer, a 4th year player who is only 21 (C.J. Miles) and the Impact player of the year in the NBA-DL (Morris Almond) isn't as bad as having to split that same amount of time between Greg Ostertag, John Amaechi, Curtis Borchardt and Jarron Collins. (and yes, we almost made the playoffs with that at center) That's why I suggest that the Jazz brass are not in a bad spot, because they've been in much worse spots before.

    Morris Almond wowed fans and opposing coaches alike last season in the NBA-DL, though this season he must try to impress Jerry Sloan with the other parts of his game besides offense

    Today we're going to see Morris Almond break the D-League scoring record, and while the length of this video does not span a large sample size of the game, we can clearly see the makings of a solid offensive player. Certainly, it's not a bad thing if the 4th guy on your shooting guard depth chart can score 50+ in a game (which Almond has demonstrated in his games of 51 and 53 points last season) in an American professional basketball league (which the D-League is).

    I probably look at Almond's game a lot differently than other Jazz fans who are holding out for a complete player. I don't expect him to be Ray Allen. I don't expect him to be Dell Curry either -- Almond's game somewhere in-between those two.

    Morris Almond wowed fans and opposing coaches alike last season in the NBA-DL, though this season he must try to impress Jerry Sloan with the other parts of his game besides offense. Photo by NBAE/Getty Images.  

    As I live in Detroit I get to enjoy a lot of exposure to Pistons players (heck, Preeti (if you don't know who she is then sucks to be you) had dinner with Chauncey Billups tonight); one player that I've had a good hard look at has been Rip Hamilton. He's not the most athletic guy around, nor is he a great one on one defender. (If he was, then the Pistons wouldn't get killed by LeBron every other game) Rip isn't a complete player -- he's not going to dunk on other guys, or beat 3 guys off the dribble like Kobe does. On offense he runs other guys through the Reggie-Miller-hamster-wheel-of-death, gets open, and makes jumpers. Aren't those the only shots that SGs really get in our offense anyway?

    With this information (that the only shots for SGs in our half court offense happen to be the types that Rip gets and makes) I heartily envision a spot on the floor for Almond in the future. Why? Because Morris Almond (if plugged into such a system) can perform that well. He has all of those moves already and can be just as efficient. He only looks like a chucker who never gets assists because we've only seen him play with marginally capable point guards and really bad players everywhere else. Just check out the video, and try convincing yourself that if he played with Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and the pass-happy Andrei Kirilenko that he wouldn't be able to keep the defenses honest more than Brewer does with his broken shot.

    Almond Tops Scoring Record [1:37] Uploaded by sanskrit953263 -- Earlier in the season Almond had scored 51 points, and he breaks his own (and the NBA DL's) record with this performance on January 30th, 2008. He ended up shooting 19-34 (3-7 from three, 12-14 at the FT line), and added 6 boards, 2 steals and 2 assists. He's never going to get to shoot it that much in a week of NBA action next season, but it's not like he was chucking the ball, he's the only offensive player on his team (hello triple teamed?) and he still managed to shoot 55.8 fg% on his way to 53 points !!!

    The YouTube comments section is interesting to read, especially how non-Jazz fans suggest that he has some, albeit minor, Kobe-like skills with scoring the ball. (Particularly with his post up game, which is good for a guard, and as his Jazz teammates Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer tease, how he never passes the ball) That's basically why they named him Mobe. Looking at how smooth he plays on offense, I can easily see why the name has stuck.

    Do I think he should start? No. Do I think he should get a chance to show his stuff with good players? Yes. Realistically, he is a season or two away from being a legit NBA player. Watching him in summer league I came to the conclusion that he was not learning anything new by playing with guys worse than him. For him to get better he needs to play against guys who are better than he is -- essentially, NBA players. His defense is not so hot (but he does try and has a good blocks to foul ratio, one of the better ones on the roster for sure).

    But . . . is defense really a Jazz priority in the first case? We win games by out scoring them, our paint area is patrolled by our small forward and our bigmen don't play any defense. To fix our defense we'd have to break down a lot of our current structure. It's almost better to keep getting better at offense, because we sure as heck can't stop anyone from scoring. I guess this is what will only make Almond that much more important to our future -- I'm sure that he will become the best offensive player out of him, Korver, Brewer and Miles. Again, Rip Hamilton has flaws, but he can be an All-Star, I'm sure we can coax 12 ppg out of Morris Almond 2-3 seasons from now.

    Thursday, August 21, 2008

    Coming to America

    For anyone who has been following the story, this is a happy conclusion to a peculiar -- potentially racist? -- quirk in the NBA's hiring policy. I'm happy for Hamed "Who's your Daddy" Ehadadi, from the first time I saw this unusually dark Persian block shots and score inside around the basket back in those halcyon days of the Rocky Mountain Review. He was far from the most talented player on that Iranian squad -- but his height, length and quickness were hard to deny. (As Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko found out)

    Everyone and their mother has already blogged about this, and even some of the big media outlets have mentioned it as well -- so there's not much to say. So let's just all enjoy the potential for a quick, skilled bigman to join some team and spread the Global love that basketball has earned since Barcelona. My take is like he's a taller version of Marcus Camby, but a polar opposite, adequate on defense, but very offense-savvy.

    Who's your Ehdadi?

     

    Now check out, among other things,
    his buzzer beater from beyond half court!

    Tuesday, August 5, 2008

    YouTube Tuesdays! Episode 1

    Every blog brings something different and nice. The Internet is big, so there's enough space for everyone. I truly believe this -- but for you to truly belong you have to do something that no one else does. So this week I'm introducing one of my new, weekly features: YouTube Tuesdays.

    First up? This video posted by "rightside04" titled: The Real Kosta Koufos Highlight Video. [5:00] It's completely worksafe (unless you don't like rap/hip hop) and features highlights of his first (and only) year of NCAA ball at Ohio State. There are no highlights from his FIBA U18 dominance for Greece in this video. This video makes me that much more comfortable with his offensive game (which was really a stinker in the RMR -- 38% fg stinks). He had some nice blocks as well. It's a solidly mixed video and a good introduction to the man I call The Kolossus! [Yeah, that's one of the nicknames I made up for the Jazz players . . . catch the first 5 names here!] This is a good introduction to YouTube Tuesdays as well! Watch it!


    Wednesday, July 30, 2008

    Statistical Breakdown of the RMR

    This year the Jazz had only three players on their Utah Jazz roster who participated in the Rocky Mountain review: shooting guard / shooting forward (as opposed to small forward) Morris Almond, 50% prospect/50% project center Kyrylo Fesenko, and 19 year old Rookie Kosta Koufos. Our squad also featured a former NBA player in Yaroslav Korolev (a lotto pick by the LA Clippers). Following that we had two guys who had games of destiny during the 6 game review (Kevin Lyde and Tyrone Brazelton). Lastly, solid, but unspectacular back-up power forward Hiram Fuller had some good moments over the period of the Rocky Mountain Review. That said: here are their per game averages! (These may differ from the NBA.com website slightly because their stats are for up to game 4, where these include all 6 game stats)

    Player Pos. Mpg Ppg FGM-FGA FG% FTM-FTA FT% 3PTM-3PTA 3TP% Off. Rpg Tot. Rpg Apg Spg Bpg TOpg PFpg
    M.Almond SG/ SF 28 18.5 5.8-13.0 44.9 6.2-7.7 80.4 0.7-2.0 33.3 1.0 2.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 2.2 2.0
    K.Koufos C/ PF 19 8.7 2.7-7.0 38.1 3.3-3.7 90.9 0.0-0.0 0.0 2.0 5.7 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.2 2.3
    T.Brazelton PG 15 7.5 3.0-6.3 48.0 1.0-1.0 100.0 0.0-1.0 0.0 0 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 1.5
    Y.Korolev SF/ SG 14 6.0 2.2-5.0 44.0 1.0-1.4 71.4 0.6-1.0 60.0 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.4 2.2
    H.Fuller PF 16 5.0 1.8-5.0 36.7 1.3-2.0 66.7 0.0-0.0 0.0 2.2 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.5
    K.Fesenko C 17.5 4.5 1.7-3.7 45.5 1.2-2.2 53.8 0.0-0.0 0.0 2.3 4.8 0.8 0.5 2.2 2.7 2.3
    K.Lyde C 6.5 3.2 1.5-2.5 60.0 0.2-0.3 50.0 0-0 0.0 1.8 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.8

    Morris Almond: As we can see, Morris Almond played the most minutes per game, took the most shots, and finished the review with a grand total of 3 assists. (Which looks exponentially worse when compared to his 78 total shots attempted) He also managed to pull down nearly 3 rebounds per game and almost 1 steal per game. His last three games of the review were much better than the first three -- averaging 22.3 ppg (47 fg%), 3.0 rpg, 0.67 apg, 1.0 spg and 1 made three a game. (All better than his Review averages) During that span he also went to the line 29 times (a shot under 10 FTA / game), which is exactly what we want to see. Statistically speaking he had a strong showing on the scoring side of the ball, he didn't get many assists -- but that doesn't mean he didn't evolve into a guy who can cognitively percieve that someone else on his team has a better shot than he does. During the first two games he would die with the rock instead of passing it off, but as early as the game against Iran (RMR Game 3) he was passing the ball up to guys who had open shots and good looks. Unfortunately they just didn't go down, and perhaps if Almond was playing with NBA level shooting talent he would garner more assists. After all, he's more likely to pass the ball to guys that can put the ball in the basket instead of guys who suck. His defensive stats were not that great, but that said, his defense did improve over the course of the Review. I think that if given the opportunity, put in a system where he's no greater than the 4th best player on the floor, and given the ball only when open, he can be a valuable NBA player -- not unlike Rip Hamilton.

    Kosta Koufos: This rookie had some ups and down in this review, looking very shaky in the opening game, then having a double double in the next, then the next one finishing with only 4 points and 5 boards, and so forth. One of the main criticisms I have of his game (as supported by statistical evidence) has been that for a guy who was touted (before the NBA Draft) to have a strong offensive game (particularly shooting the ball) his FG% was horrible. He was a killer at the Free Throw line (leading the team with a 90.9%), but from the field he shot only 38.1%. That is really bad. That's Kenny Anderson bad. What is worse is that he continued to shoot the ball at a very high rate: 42 total shots, 96:40 total minutes played -- that's 1 shot ever 2.3 minutes on the floor. For a point of reference, Carlos Boozer -- the focal point of our offense who scores over 21 ppg @ nearly 55% -- gets 1 shot every 2.2 minutes on the floor. What's the difference? Six (6) whole fucking seconds!!! Seriously dude, pass the ball a little bit, huh? After the first three games I felt like Kosta's stats were an inflated sham, as he would end up making a shot off of the work of someone else, while missing all of his shots that were created by himself (post ups, jumpers). Furthermore, his rebounding stats would get bumped up each game by a sequence where he'd tip the ball to himself, or get a cheap tip-in. He did lead the team in RPG with 5.7, and did solid work on the defensive glass -- thanks to the solid defense of Fesenko who changed many a shot that ricocheted right to the Big Greek. In the last three games Kosta played much better, shooting 47.6 fg%, being a consistent offensive force (10.3 ppg) who also made a solid effort on defense (5.0 rpg, 1.67 bpg). I was amazed at how poorly he shot (1-3, 3-11, 2-7, 3-8, 3-6, 4-7), and may have been a little biased against him, but I think that his performance indicates that down the line (2-3 seasons) he'll be a solid NBA player.

    Kyrylo Fesenko: Everyone on planet earth hates this guy -- and I fail to see why. The Utah Jazz have a glaring hole when it comes to interior defense. Fesenko is a 7'1 beast who weighs over 300 pounds and is agile and strong like a Siberian tiger. He is a limited player who does not try to do anything crazy. (1 shot ever 3.8 mins on the floor) The only things he is good at is playing interior defense on guys without fouling them (or letting them score easily); changing countless shots during the course of the game; and being a big enough of a force to send back over 2+ bpg. How is this not precisely what the Jazz need for a guy to come off the bench, run around, hit people, and play big for 10-12 mpg? The major criticism of him is that he has a questionable work ethic (based upon unsubstantiated rumormongering by media members who are not privy to jazz practices, and opinion by possibly jilted ex-coaches), and that he has 'regressed'. I just don't know how true that is, unless you had unreasonable expectations for him. Compared to how he performed in last seasons RMR (2007-2008 stats can be found here), some early conclusions can be made.

      MPG PPG FG% FT% Off. RPG Total RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PFPG BPG / PFPG
    2007 16.3 4.8 58.8 45.0 1.3 4.3 1.0 0.5 1.3 1.7 3.8 0.342
    2008 17.5 4.5 45.5 53.8 2.3 4.8 0.8 0.5 2.2 2.7 2.3 0.956
    Diff +1.2 -0.3 -13.3 +8.8 +1.0 +0.5 -0.2 +0.0 +0.8 +1.0 -1.5 +0.617

    The first thing that jumps out at you is his offensive production. He's scoring at a much lower % from the field, and even though he is playing 1.2 more mpg, his over-all scoring is down. (not shown: he's getting to the line 1.2 times less per game as well) To me these all indicate that he's not playing with a good point guard. Last season the Jazz were run by Dee Brown and Brian Chase -- two guys much better than who we had running things this season. A PG is able to get his big man good shots. No point guard = no easy shots. While Fes' FG% looks horrible, do keep in mind that if you eliminate his last game (arguably his worst), his FG% for the tournament was 64.2%! His FT% went up markedly, by nearly 10% -- which shows that he put the time in and improved that. Over all, though, his offensive stats were much less than what some people expected of him. It's probably a good thing that we're not needing another scorer on the team -- especially not from our back-up center.

    On the defensive side of things everything went up, expect for steals (which stayed the same -- but how many more spg do you expect from +1.2 mpg?). He boarded more, and probably would have had more if he wasn't the primary defender for: bigmen, anyone driving, and people taking any shots in the paint. (He would have to run out to challenge shots, preventing him from getting easy boards) Two big facts happen to be that he fouled a lot less, while playing more minutes, and his blocks went up. What does this mean? That his block to foul metric is much better than it was.

    Last season he accrued only 0.342 blocks : 1 foul -- which means that he'd have to foul 3 times in the span it would take him to get 1 block. This season it was a completely different story, as he was getting nearly as many blocks (13 total) as he did fouls (14 total). This is an improvement of +0.617, which is pretty huge. What is this metric all about? Well, David Robinson (a pretty good blocks guy in his career) blocked 2954 shots in his life, and fouled 2835 times. This gives him a score of +1.042. By comparison, this RMR Fes' score was +0.956. David's score is for 34.7 mpg, while Fes' score is for 17.5 mpg.

    34.7 / 17.5 = 1.983. If you take that modifier and enhance Fes' stats by it you get a kid who with that kind of playing time is capable of blocking over 4 shots a game without fouling out. You know, something that is ridiculously Mark Eaton-esque. Do the statistics indicate that Fesenko has regressed from last season? Absolutely not. Therefore, idiots who look at differential stats and not inferential stats should shut the hell up. Additionally, for anyone that cares to look at who's better (Fes or Kosta), one is clearly a better offensive weapon. The other is a much better interior defender -- and my metric supports this:

    Fesenko (0.956 blocks/fouls) > Koufos (0.428 blocks/fouls)