So . . . I was right about Ronnie Price

If you aren’t on twitter, then this is news: the Jazz are going to be bringing back Ronnie Price. (also confirmed by 1320 KFAN by txt message and via Twitter and the PR department of the Utah Jazz, via Twitter) Of course, this was a mere formality after Sloan was talking about Price in post draft interviews about Eric Maynor. But really, you didn’t need that either – you just needed to listen to me all along. So, last off-season the Jazz traded Hart for Knight, and by doing so, put themselves in a position where they would end up evaluating two guys for one spot all season long – with the final prize being a contract. I’m sure it must have been a crazy year for both Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight, playing against each other all season long fighting for playing time, both in the last year of expiring contracts.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008 (an excerpt)

Things to look for this season: Brevin Knight

Posted by Amar at 1:30 PM

“. . . More playing time at PG than Ronnie Price: That doesn't mean that Price isn't going to get playing time this season -- he may very well beat out Knight as the season goes on -- but over all Knight is going to get more playing time at the PG than Price will . . . ”

Thursday, October 16, 2008 (an excerpt)

Things to look for this season: Ronnie Price

Posted by Amar at 11:58 PM

“. . . If you haven't been following Ronnie Price's career, this is pretty much his own version of Sisyphus' challenge. His entire career he's had to make a living by beating other guys out for playing time. He did it two years ago in Sacramento (beating Jason Hart out). He did it last year in Utah (again beating Jason Hart out). And he's basically going to have to do it a 3rd year in a row, having to attempt to beat out Jason Hart the guy they traded Jason Hart for (Brevin Knight). Brevin also being in a contract year makes this even 'better', in terms of entertainment value. They are in direct competition with each other for this season -- and the next ones too! The only way to make things a little bit harder for Price would be if his coach decides 'just for fun' (in that exaggerated East Indian accent that Russell Peters has sometimes) to stop playing him at point guard -- and have him fight for playing time against 4 shooting guards (Brewer, Korver, Miles and Almond). Sounds dumb, right? Sounds even better from Jerry's own mouth [Interview, around the 1:54 to 4:13 mark, via 1320 KFAN]. For the record though, he does compliment Price as well during that answer, and suggests that his versatility allows him to play alongside Knight for a really small, quick line-up.

Basically, then, all Ronnie Price has to do is beat out Knight, and his future here in Utah will be secure, well it should be, right Mo Williams? Price has some advantages though, as he's been here last season, won the job, and played in every playoff game. Furthermore, he's a popular guy (in that younger crew with Millsap, Brewer and Miles) and the Jazz went 43-18 in games that he played in. That's winning 70.5 % of those games -- good enough for a 58 win season over 82 games. Here are three things to look out for this season from Ronnie Price:

 

Hustle every minute on the floor: Deron Williams plays so much point guard that there is very little time remaining for the other guys. There's going to be 8-12 minutes per game available by my estimation, and that's not nearly enough to play all three guys every game. What Price will do is hustle and play very hard in whatever time he has. Brevin Knight isn't going to jump up there and slam down alley-oops, or run back and block guys on fast breaks. Those are the types of plays that'll help get Price another contract with the Jazz -- especially if he plays within the offense and runs the team well.

 

Be available (and healthy) to play in 80+ games: Knight gets injured every year. He's never played over 80 games and whatever slim window of playing time exists has to be maximized by Price. Price needs to be available every game to go in and give Deron a breather. Especially in the cases where Knight is going to be injured and unavailable to play. It sounds simple, but it makes sense. One easy way to distinguish himself from his competition is be healthy. Coach is going to go with the guys on the roster who can play. Sometimes it doesn't have to be complicated. Knight averages 59 games played a season over his career. There is a window of opportunity for Price here, even if it's not wide open.

 

Eventually beat out Brevin Knight: I'm going to come out and say it -- there are going to be some situations all year where one of the two guys is going to get to play, and the other guy will sit. There will be situations where one guy is favored to play over the other (match-ups, etc). Also, there could be some times on the court where they both play at the same time. Out of all of those situations I think that the veteran leadership of Brevin Knight is going to be a stabilizing force for our team. I just can't bet against Ronnie Price. He's a smaller, scrappy guard who has three point range and has been in this situation before. Knight is smaller, scrappier, and much better than Jason Hart (the guy Price used to beat out each of those previous times), but I think Price has more fight in him. If Knight gets decked by Turiaf I see him on the floor for a while. Price got decked and was ready to fight. It's probably this fight that's going to win him the job sometime after the All-Star Break. . .”

Price eventually did win out, it appears, but thanks to Brevin Knight for being there. He was instrumental in our team starting the seasons on a 5-0 run, but just did not get it going after that. It’s a shame really, because I think we all expected more out of him. Alas, he’ll be looking to play somewhere else next season. Kevin O’Connor (GM): “Keeping Ronnie on our roster was important to us. He is someone who knows our system and has proven capable of stepping in whenever called upon. Over the last two seasons he has shown a commitment to working hard and improving his game, and as a result, we expect his growth to continue.” Randy Rigby (Utah Jazz President): “Ronnie Price is the consummate professional. He is always prepared when Coach Sloan calls on him and we are looking forward to his energy and toughness next season.” “The Utah Jazz announced today that the team has re-signed guard Ronnie Price.  Per team policy, terms of the deal were not released.” (The Utah Jazz, July 14, 2009) If you don’t recall, Price did not get a chance to play massive minutes in the playoffs this season, which is in stark contrast to last season’s playoffs. But in the time that he did play, he played with energy, hustle, fire and without fear. That’s the type of player I want on the court when we’re on the wrong side of an elimination game. And that’s exactly the type of player the Jazz have in Price.

Contract years, Developing Talent & Front Office Subterfuge

The work of a General Manager is easy to criticize, yet hard to fully quantify. Team owners are like dragons sleeping on their hoard of gold coins and other priceless treasures. Coaches want to build winning resumes. Players want to get paid. The GM has to be the go-between that gets all these parties (with differing motivations) on the same page. The GM has to get a coach the players he needs to win. The players want the promises they need before signing on the dotted line (salary, role, playing time, etc). And for the team owner, well, the GM has to placate this obstacle on a near daily basis and convince the owners not to devourer the GM on sight -- while suggesting that parting with part of their hoard (on the 1st and 15th of each month) is the smart thing to do.

At times the NBA can be distilled to purer components, of winning and losing, and of the honesty of the game. Yet, at other times the NBA can expand into a complex juggling act more akin to micromanagement in a strategy game, or a RTS click-fest. For players, the game is the game. It's simple in that way, and relies on skill, speed and quick reflexes -- a Video Game analogy would be the first person shooter. For coaches, it's series of complex decisions, not unlike the original turn based strategy game called "Chess". (you may have heard of it) The GM, though, has to delve into the previously mentioned RTS click-fest:

But instead, imagine dealing with salaries, egos, scouts, coaches, players and injuries . . . also less cannons, probably . . .

*Ahem* Back to the point . . . a GM's job is rarely done perfectly because of how difficult it tends to be. Some GM's are great talent evaluators (for example, there's Isiah Thomas, just look at the player's he has drafted in his career, most of them have been All-Stars or award winners in some regard: Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Marcus Camby, Damon Stoudamire, David Lee, and so on) but poor on other sides of their job description. Other GM's have good connections with other teams, and always seem to do business with them (look at Kevin O'Connor and all the deals he has made with Philly over the years). Some GM's are really good with managing money, while others are known for turning things around in short order. At the end of the day, though, the GM is a salesman. He is essentially selling his services to a consumer -- in this case the team owner. Part of sales is to buy low and sell high. Another part of sales is to be consciously deceptive in just what your wares are. That last part does not really apply fully to the GM - Team Owner relationship, but rather to the GM to GM relationship. Sometimes you get a lemon, but you have to pass it off as a safe family sedan. Other times you (as the GM) are working not against the team owner, the other GM's, but the actual assets -- the players and their agents.

You want to keep a good player on your team for the least amount of money it's going to take to keep him there. All Team Owners expect the GM to be able to do such a thing. This part of the job ties in directly with the buy low/sell high and deceptive doctrines. If the first step is acquiring a player (via a Trade, Free Agency or the Draft), then the next step is evaluating that player (though, we hope that some evaluations have taken place before the player is traded for/signed/drafted). The next logical step would be to give playing time to that player and develop him. The last step? Making a decision on that guy -- sign him again when his contract expires, trade him, or let him walk. Parts of the last step depend greatly on each of the previous steps.

• For example, say the team acquires player A. They evaluate him, see some things they like, some things he needs to improve on, and play him accordingly. He either gets better or worse. If he does well, he becomes more valuable to the team -- and more valuable as a player. His asking price may go up, and making the last step (in this case: deciding to keep him) harder to do. An example of this Jazz fans may be familiar with would be All-Star Mo Williams.
• Player B, on the other hand, does not appear to have much upside, does not make the most of his chances on the court, and is not in the future plans of the team. They can get rid of him in a variety of ways, the team's disinterest in retaining him opens up options for his removal. An example of this Jazz fans may be familiar with would be Kris Humphries.

It's not always this simple, though.

• What about Player C . . . the team that drafts him knows him best, and knows that there is hidden potential deep inside. If they go about normally giving him playing time, allow him to develop openly (instead of only during closed practices and workouts with the team), then other GM's may wish to pry him away. Even if the original team wishes to keep him, retaining him may become very difficult as the exposure led to quicker development, which led to a greater player value. This would be repeating the same mistake with Player A all over again. What if, instead, the team decides to develop him secretly, give him less exposure, drive his asking price down, remove interest other GMs would have in him, and basically, keep him on the "down low".

This is pretty much the only way to retain those people that you think *can* blow up (in a good way), without having to give them a lot of money to make them stay. Deron Williams deserves the contract he got. It's an expensive contract though. Some teams are forced to over-pay to retain their talent (don't need to look farther than a young, uninjured Andrei Kirilenko half a decade ago). In general, you want to avoid doing that. If anything, I think we can clearly place the curious case of C.J. Miles as an example of a Player C scenario.

At the end of C.J.'s first season he was getting more playing time, and in the last game of the season he played really well. How well? 23 points (8/13 fg, 2/5 3pt, 5/8 ft), 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal -- as a rookie with extend playing time playing against a tough Western Conference team. Every off-season since then there have been fishy things going on. He was a consistent no-show in future summer leagues, but instead opted to work on his game by himself. During times of injury he would be pressed into the starting line-up, only to return to the end of the bench only a few days later. C.J. should have played more than he did in when he was on his rookie contract. The clock struck 12 on C.J.'s contract though, and the Jazz simply put themselves in a situation to match whatever contract someone threw his way by virtue of him being a restricted free agent. No one really bit, not knowing what they would be getting . . . until Oklahoma City offered him a 4 year $15 million dollar contract. We all know how that story ended, as the Jazz eventually matched. Was $3.75 million per season too much for C.J. Miles? Perhaps . . . but at the same time, it's a lot less than it could have been had C.J. been playing like he is now at this time last season. (or perhaps, getting the playing time that he is getting now at this time last season) Back then I thought the Jazz were (in chronological order) a) not developing C.J. enough, b) using him only for spot duty, c) giving his playing time to guys who did not deserve it.

This season Ceejay has been everything from a solid deep threat, a versatile 2nd option on offense, to invisible . . . sometimes all in the same week. This is his 4th season in the league, and his first where he has averaged over 11.5 mpg. I'm sure he would be better, more seasoned player than he currently is if he was playing 20 mpg every season after his rookie campaign. I'm also pretty sure that he wouldn't be on the Jazz then. In effect, one could directly point to a systematic way in which the Jazz brass (Sloan and O'Connor mostly) lowered interest in a prospect, sequestered him from exposure (he only got one short stint in the NBA DL), yet did not develop him for fear of losing him. At the end of the day the Jazz have C.J., but not the C.J. he could be right now, and C.J. is not earning as much as he perhaps thought he would be after his rookie contract expired.

The Jazz financial situation is horrible right now. If it does not improve shortly than there may be a few more Player A type situations in the future with key contributors Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer. The Jazz would love to keep them for reasonable contracts, though their development (and production) have elicited quite a bit of exposure. Good for their bank accounts, perhaps not so great for the Jazz.

That's where the micromanagement comes back into play. You want your players to be good, productive and develop . . . but you do not want to lose them to other teams after you put in all the hard work to make them useful. Gilbert Arenas comes to mind, he was drafted, developed, and then left to get paid in free agency. Right now the Jazz are playing the "front office subterfuge game" with some other young players that could possibly be helping the Jazz right now.

Morris Almond: He is a scorer's scorer, who despite having limited quickness and has played defense only once in his life, could be doing a whole lot more for this Jazz team. He's looked horrible in his rookie season with the Jazz where he never got to be involved in the plays that the regular rotation run that get swingmen easy buckets. He didn't play a minute with Deron Williams last year, and was relegated to garbage time spot up shooting from the corner. Reason for not getting playing time: He's behind a few key guys on the depth chart and doesn't rebound or defend as well as others. For some reason this has prevented him from playing one single second in the NBA-DL this season. Something fishy: Why hasn't he played in the D-League at all this season then, if there's no space for him on our current roster? Do the Jazz know that he's a raw gem that only seems to look better when he gets to play?  Utah is healthy now, so there's no real risk to put him in the game at all . . . maybe practice with the Jazz is better than games with the Flash? Or maybe they don't want him to get too much exposure right now? Utah has opted not to extend his contract, so seemingly he is out . . . but maybe they are trying to keep his going rate low so that they *can* still have a shot at retaining him for a while. After all, they scouted him, interviewed him, drafted him, are developing him . . . Harpring's contract expires next year, and the Jazz will need a wing player who can come off that Harpring curl and hit the mid-range jumper. Financial situation aside, that sounds like something the Jazz have in their laps right now with Almond. Alas, this is exactly not the contract type of year a young player wants to have (being buried on the bench). Co-incidentally, this is exactly the type of contract year the Jazz would want him to have . . . after all, they did the same thing with Ceejay, they know what they are doing.

Kyrylo Fesenko: Very large man (7'1, 300+ lbs.) with the same wingspan and standing reach as Greg Oden -- yet uninjured and a capable passer and interior defender who has, due to injuries, been pressed into defending the likes of Yao Ming to Andrew Bynum . . . and done so well. Very likely that he is more talented than the guy ahead of him on the depth chart (Jarron Collins), but lacks experience, familiarity with the system and seasoning. Reason for not getting playing time: Work ethic and personality appear to anchor this man to the bench, though at some level talent and ability should trump that. Something fishy: As a rookie, this wet behind the ears, 2nd round draft pick center joined the Jazz and played in 70 games, and played over 20 mpg. This player joined a playoff team that was contending for a championship. This player had no experience with the Jazz system prior (as a rookie) and ended up getting playing time over a limited, soft center who had much more experience in the system. This young player was Jarron Collins. What, did you think I was talking about Fesenko? Heck no, Fesenko has played only 200 minutes with the Jazz in his 2 year career, let alone played in 70 (@ 20 per) as a rookie. Why is there such a disparity between Collins' and Fesenko's early careers? I don't know, but it seems kind of fishy to me. Even more fishy is that Fes only had one stint in the NBA-DL this season (8 games), promptly did exactly what we'd want him to do (be a defensive presence who rebounded, blocked and changed shots, shot a high percentage and eventually was averaging a double double) . . . and was called back and never played again. Ever. Hmmmm . . . he improves, shows that he's good at what he does . . . and can be a free agent this season . . . 'need to reel that big boy in, and hide him somewhere!' (which was the original plan with drafting a little known, poorly scouted player from a minor European league in the first place) More so than Almond, I think that Fesenko has a future with the Jazz, or at the very least, in the NBA somewhere as teams always want size, and if the guy is talented, he's going to get a contract somewhere. If you gave him the playing time, I'm pretty sure that he'd be able to get Rookie Millsap type of numbers for sure.

Paul Millsap: Speaking of the 'Sap, he got some great exposure this season. He produced as a starter due to injuries to Carlos Boozer. He's a free agent, and he's going to get paid this off-season. No doubt about it. Interestingly enough, at the first whiff of a hobbled, rusty Carlos Boozer the Jazz sent 'Sap back to the bench and as his fantasy owners know firsthand, 'Sap just hasn't been the same since. Reason for being sent to the bench: Boozer was the starter before he got injured, the Jazz/Sloan doctrine on this is that you cannot lose your starting job due to injury. Something fishy: No one said anything about a starting job, but just let Paul start the first 4-5 games after Boozer comes back and then let Boozer slowly work his way back into playing shape, and then give Boozer the starting spot. A lot of teams do this, they bring a starter back from injury on the bench just to test things out a bit. Out of all of my conspiracies, this is among the weakest -- though I don't see why the Jazz didn't keep starting Millsap for 4 games while Boozer (who was playing limited minutes) worked his way back into starting shape. For one thing, this almost looks like a directed attempt to reduce Millsap's exposure (for the open market). It's probably not, but it just looks fishy -- during a contract year, no less.

Kosta Koufos: Let's just say that if this 19 year old was playing Brook Lopez type of minutes on a bad team we'd see Brook Lopez-ish production out of Kosta. Yet, a guy who is clearly more talented than Collins, and is a very hard worker (much more than Fesenko has shown), is completely lost on this team. Kosta isn't on the active roster right now, isn't playing in the development league, and isn't developing. Reason for not getting playing time: Apparently he doesn't know the plays. Sure, he's a smart shot blocking 7 footer who has a nice offensive game AND is a very hard worker who hustles . . . but he's not going to get to play because by playing him he would then be in a position to actually learn the plays, and then we would have even less of an excuse for why he isn't playing. He's almost a gestalt character that takes the size (mostly) and shot blocking of Fess, with the hustle and work ethic of Collins . . . and gets none of the playing time that he should. Something fishy: There is no good reason not to play this guy, develop him with real NBA minutes, or even send him to the NBA D-League for some in game action. He hasn't seen the developmental league at all in his career, instead getting better by wearing suits next to Carlos Boozer for 50+ games. That's another thing, he got some very minor playing time just because of injuries . . . this season was a prime season to be forced into playing and developing younger talent. Sloan had to work many games without being able to call on veteran bigmen . . . but still he elected to instead play Matt Harpring at power forward. Huh?

It's not that difficult to imagine that the Jazz are hurting their futures by risking not getting these guys playing time because they do not want to lose them to other teams . . . but they also get nothing out of these guys. Other teams play younger players during the regular season so that they may become contributors to that team . . . and even help them in the playoffs. Heck, our team did this with Paul Millsap as a rookie, or Shandon Anderson (more on him later), or Bryon Russell and a host of others. There's no doubt in my mind that if Fess of Kosta were getting 12-15 mpg this season that one of them would be able to contribute in the playoffs for us. Instead the development time has become much longer for a bunch of guys who could be helping us now. Also, it's not that difficult to imagine that the Jazz are hurting the values of their players by flat out burying them during contract years. No playing time = no exposure and no stats = bargain prices. They did this with C.J., and if they had a time machine, would probably like to do so with others as well.

The way that the Jazz develop talent seems to be highly unequal. Some young guys get regular burn, while others don't. This time is directly proportional towards development. I think that Jazz Brass feel the financial side to all of this needs to take precedence over the immediate development and returns from the players on the roster. The Jazz gave good minutes to a solid player (Shandon Anderson) as a rookie, and eventually left the team, the Jazz get nothing in the long term for it. The Jazz gave good minutes to a very talented player (Andrei Kirilenko), and end up having to really over-pay to keep him on the team. The Jazz don't want to get into anything like that again, and now underplay most guys during the span of their rookie contracts, so they they do not have to over-pay.

C.J., only after the Jazz matched an offer he got from another team, is finally getting playing time -- but as a 4th year guard with the potential that he had when he was drafted, he is behind where he should be. They seem to be guilty of doing that with Almond and Fesenko by not playing them in the NBA, nor allowing them to rack up stats in the D-League . . . which would have been a great way to audition for other teams during contract years -- or you know, actually get better and be able to help OUR team.

Some Jazz apologists feel like the practices the Jazz have are of greater value to a younger player than actually playing in the development league, or even playing in the NBA on poorer quality teams. I think that this is a very haughty thing to say . . . especially with how closely the Jazz *can* keep an eye on things with their development team being only a few miles away and the coach of that team is related to Jerry Sloan -- it almost seems like a no-brainer to send the kids down at least once each when none of them are even on the active roster with the Jazz. They threw C.J. a bone once by doing that, by giving him a chance to play, and that improved his morale. Why not do the same for a younger player this season? Sloan even goes out to harp on how great the D-League is, and how he wishes they had that when he first came into the league. If it's so great, why not use it, now that the rest of the guys are healthy?

As for how great the Jazz practices are . . . they rarely get a chance to practice on the road (they only practice on days off, and now at the end of the season, with the playoffs coming up, there may be less than the regular number of practices on off-days), so the younglings are getting even less time to improve than normal. This clearly is the case where the GM, at the behest of saving the team owner money, works with the coaches to screw the players out of money / job satisfaction. Or maybe that's by design, especially in their contract years?

Dollar$ and Cent$: Just say 'No' to the 2009 NBA Draft

First of all, if you are a Pete Maravich/Ricky Rubio fan, then you don't need to worry about this draft. Secondly, if you are the Utah Jazz, you don't want nothing to do with this one either, but for an entirely different reason: money. Money is a huge big deal in the NBA -- and in more than that art imitates life type of way. People want to get paid. (Even if they don't deserve it) Utah -- when healthy -- is a pretty nice team. In order to keep this team together the Jazz Brass (particularly Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor) is going to have to get new team owner Greg Miller to open the, how do you say, "cheque book". The salary situation is bananas. (but not in the "it changes every day" type of way) Just take a look for yourself. This off season the Jazz may have to ink new deals for Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Paul Millsap, Jarron Collins and Kyrylo Fesenko -- essentially all the bigmen on the roster except for Andrei Kirilenko and current rookie Kosta Koufos.

Boozer	Okur	Millsap	Fesenko	Collins
$12.7 mill next year, looking for more according to interview he gave weeks ago to ESPN	$9 mill next year, looking for more (according to Turkish media)	Making less than $800k, Restricted Free Agent will be offered 10x that on the market at least	Team option for less than $900k	Somehow making $2 mill this year

That's not all the free agents though, as the Jazz will need to figure out what they are doing with their point guard situation (both back-ups, Brevin Knight and Ronnie Price, have expiring contracts) and that Morris Almond guy . . . well, it's a damn shame what happened to that guy. The year after that (i.e. the Off-Season of 2010) there needs to be some money for Ronnie Brewer (who's qualifying offer is going to be at a hair under $4 million per season), Matt Harpring (who, for whatever reason, we are incapable of getting rid of) and anyone else who didn't get taken care of this off-season.

The 'best' thing is to find out which guys we really want, and develop a strategy to keep them. Out of all of those names the most important free agents (right now) are Boozer, Okur, Millsap, Brewer and Knight. Championship teams do not depend on the services of guys like Jarron Collins, or Ronnie Price. Brewer does not need a new deal until next season. Mehmet Okur has not made any waves about opting out, unlike Boozer, so both of them 'could' still be on the books for the next year. (At the rate of $9 million and $12.7 million respectively) If all three are on the books then we only really need to worry about Knight and Millsap. The back-up PG situation can be handled with part of the exception. (I could be wrong, as I'm not a cap-ologist) The rest of the money can be used on Millsap. (What money? Where is this money coming from? The Jazz are already over the cap . . . there IS no more money!) The closer to reality we get (and hence, the closer to actually dealing with the cap) the closer we get to recognizing that this situation sucks.

There just isn't enough money to go around. If you bare bones it, have Boozer opt out (and not be resigned by the Jazz), let Collins and Price walk, jettison Fesenko with the team option on his contract -- then you'll have enough money to go around for Millsap, Okur, Brewer and Knight over the next two season . . . but only have 9 players on the roster. You're not allowed to have only 9 players on your roster. The Jazz will have to pick up a few low cost scrubs in order to fill out the roster -- not a bad move, but still, there's no guarantee that Boozer will opt out now (even though he said that he would), and secondly, the Jazz may not (for whatever reason) get rid of Collins, Price *or* Fesenko. Under Larry H. Miller, R.I.P., the Jazz were a small town family more than they were a business. Guys like Harpring and Collins had expiring contracts a few seasons ago, and they were given (back then) seriously over priced golden handshake deals. It should have ended there, but I don't know if it really will. So, okay, let's scratch that idea of the Jazz actually going to 'not' sign company men. I really do not have a great solution to the Jazz financial situation, but, I do know where some money can be saved: the 2009 NBA Draft.

Right now the Jazz are not going to go over the hump with a late 1st round pick and a late 2nd round pick. Especially not from this upcoming draft. The last thing the Jazz need is to use money on a guaranteed contract that'll eat up some of the money that would be better served being spent on the likes of Millsap or Brevin Knight. Luckily, the Jazz are in just the position to get rid of their draft picks this year. We owe Philly a 1st round pick (from the Korver trade), and Philly owes Minnesota a 1st round pick (Rodney Carney trade). If the Jazz pick lower than 22nd in this year, Minnesota will get our pick. That helps out everyone involved, especially the Jazz. The hard part, though, is getting a good enough record to finish the season with so that we are picking at 22 or lower. The Jazz will need to finish with one of the top 9 records in the league when all is said and done. Where are we today? Sitting at #10, percentage points behind New Orleans. If Utah can leapfrog New Orleans, Portland and Houston we'll be in the clear -- while keeping Dallas, Atlanta and Phoenix behind us in the standings. Sounds very plausible, and while I'd love to give up on a very late 1st round draft pick and save money, I don't know how possible this is going to end up being. The longer we hold onto the pick that we owe Philly -- that they'll give to Minnesota -- the better the pick can possibly get (going upwards from #22 to getting near the lotto if we hold it till 2013). Better to get rid of it sooner, rather than later.

The 2nd round pick is an entirely different animal, as the Jazz may be willing to keep it in plans of a draft and stash with another International (most likely European) player. This way the money for that guy is not on the books, but we still keep the rights to him. We're currently doing this with International Men of Mystery Tadija Dragicevic and Ante Tomic. As far as I am concerned, we have enough European bigmen to last a few seasons. I don't think that European swingmen are the answer to our problems. Nor do I think that our future back-up PG is going to be a European point guard. Sure, we could draft and stash *any* International player, but I don't know how great our scouting of South America is. (If we're not getting a Euro, he'll be from the Americas somewhere -- don't see us drafting an Asian or African player -- I really don't think we're actively scouting those parts of the world) The answer here, again, appears to be giving our pick to Philly, as we still owe them future considerations in the 2nd round because of the Fesenko-Hill trade a few years back.

We skip the draft this season, focus on the players we have, and save some money right now. I think that's not a bad idea at all. Plus, then the next year's draft (2010), we'll have plenty of picks that we can use as assets for trades, or well, you know, draft picks. We may have a few holes to fill two off-seasons from now. We'll have two 1st round picks (our own, hopefully a low pick; and the Knicks unprotected, possibly lotto, pick). I'm sure both of those picks could be traded to a bad team if we wanted to move up in the draft . . . I dunno . . . if we actually find someone that we'd like to add to the team.

In completely unrelated news, doesn't this kid look like Fesenko's younger brother? This guy is Donatas Motiejunas, a Lithuanian center that projects to be a lotto pick in the 1st round of the 2010 NBA Draft. I don't know much about the kid, but I do know that unless he's the reincarnation of Wilt, I don't want the Jazz to ever get close to drafting this guy. We have enough young center prospects that we're not developing already.

Sometimes Change is good, other times . . .

. . . other times it can be bad. [of if you have been following the NBA Trade Deadline deals, sometimes change can be just for the sake of change, neither good nor bad!] Hopefully the changes in this Blog are for the better. Similarly, tonight is the first day in the rest of the life of the Utah Jazz. Seemingly fitting, it has gotten me off of my butt and elicited posting again. I really do enjoy blogging, and over the last few months I have missed it. Unfortunately things in life require more attention to others -- in the long list of things I am involved in, blogging daily was easy to give up. (Especially because there are so many great Jazz blogs out there!!!)

I've made some changes here, the first one is that I'm not formatting my post posts to be viewed optimally in a native widescreen format. Last year I was still clinging to my teachings of doing things in a newspaper format (including the thin little columns of text, and so forth). This is a new year and a new age. Widescreen seems to be the wave of the future -- and really, if I'm finally using it, then most of the world would have already adapted to this. Surely this sucks for the loyal fans of my blog (I know you are out there, I check out your IP addresses!) who do not view the blog on a widescreen screen. [You know, the people kicking around on windows 98 era computers and/or reading this at work]

Going widescreen has allowed for me to put seemingly more information in the side bar (which was becoming quite cluttered otherwise). I'm sure that this looks horrible in the regular 4:3 screen ratio (I know, I pivoted my widescreen 90 degrees -- like it used to be -- and took a look for myself, it's nasty); but it's just something I'm going to have to live with. Just like we're going to have to live with situations we wouldn't prefer, but have to none-the-less.

I'm also not going to try to post as frequently as before. I was having fun doing that, and had moved into the Top 100 NBA blog rankings @ BallHype.com; but the other big Jazz blogs do that so well already. I don't need to put out a game preview and recap for every game when what I wanted to say has already been said. Kind of like how no soft drink can really complete with the Coke and Pepsi brands, I'm going to once again get back to my roots by posting stuff distinct enough that it warrants reading outside of current Jazz news. I'm going to try to keep up with the YouTube Tuesdays and other regular features though . . . so hold on tight. This is the 2nd half of the NBA season, and I guess, the 2nd half of the blogging season too! Btw, the Blog does look a whole lot better in Widescreen . . . take my word for it!

Things to look for this season: Kyle Korver

Who is Kyle Korver? Let's just say that he's a white shooting specialist who is a product of growing up in the Midwest and going to a smaller program in a fly-over state who was picked up by the Utah Jazz in a pre-trade deadline trade with the Philadelphia 76ers. Isn't that essentially the rap on Jeff Hornacek as well? The only difference is that Hornacek was an All-Star player (in the West, no doubt), and Korver is 3 inches taller and does less on the floor.

When speculating on what the expect from Kyle this season I was reminded by what Jeff said years ago. He stressed how much of a difference it was for him, as a player in this system, to have at least one Utah Jazz / Jerry Sloan training camp under his belt. He was not so lucky when he first came to Utah in the middle of the 1993-1994 season, and had to basically play catch-up for the remaining 27 games (plus playoffs) of the season. His familiarity, timing and production in the Utah Jazz system all improved from his first season to the next. Obviously part of this is just the fact that he's going to be better in a system after 120 games than after 40. The beneficial effect of a training camp cannot be discarded either. So, let's look at the difference in play between that '93-'94 season and the 1994-1995 season:

The first (and probably most apparent) point is that Hornacek's mpg went up (30.6 to 33.3); so did his shot attempts per game (10.7 to 11.6); his field goal percentage also went up (50.9% to 51.4%); he also found out where in the offense to go to get three point shot attempts (1.6 threes attempted per game to 2.7); he got to the free throw line more (3.4 fta/game to 4.0) and ended up scoring more points per game (14.6 to 16.5). He also was able to understand the offense better to the point that he also recorded more assists (3.9 to 4.3). If you look at the end of season stats the difference from his total stats in Philly and Utah (1993-1994) vs. his first full season with the Jazz (1994-1995) are just silly -- 47.0 fg% to 51.4 fg%; 33.7 3pt% to 40.6 3pt% (46.6 the next season!!!); etc . . .

The Jazz offense is more complicated than any random fan will ever know, so complicated that a 30 year old player who has been an All-Star and in the league around a decade IMPROVES after having a Jazz training camp. It would be ridiculous to also expect Korver not to play 'better' and know the system better after a training camp. I don't expect Kyle to play 33 mpg, but I do expect him to know what he can do with his time better this season. That said, here's are three things to look out for this season:

1. Expanded role in the offense in accordance with understanding it better: Hornacek was (and probably will always be) a much more talented and capable basketball player. (He used to start at shooting guard in Phoenix and was the back-up point guard for Stern's sake!) He had a really high basketball IQ (only Wade seems to make crazier layups after being fouled than the one legged Hornacek). Jeff still understood the offense better after training camp. Korver will also understand the offense better as well. Essentially the first real barriers have been overcome already -- early on when Kyle got the ball he felt pressured to shoot it. When asked why he answered that in Philly he had been conditioned to not expect the ball back after passing it. Things are different in the Jazz offense and he was surprised to see simple things like 'give 'n go's still existed here. He seems to understand that Harpring curl play, and knows how to stand in the corner waiting for the kick out pass, but he really hasn't found his legs in terms of finding guys who are open in return. If he could average over 2 apg in Philly he should be able to at least MATCH that here in Utah. (1.4 apg last season with the Jazz) More to the point, he can be the guy who passes the ball to the guy who gets the assist (what Hornacek was on a lot of plays) . . . training camp will help with this as he'll become a much more effective and cognitively aware Jazz player. His rep as a shooter is solid, why can't he pump fake a guy rotating to cover him, take two dribbles and pass to a cutter? His role in the offense needs to expand as his understanding of it does.
2. Shoot smarter, thanks in part to training camp: I remember in the first few games after Kyle came to the Jazz that on breaks Deron would pass him the ball and he would just raise up outside of the three point line (no doubt causing sparks to go off in Jerry Sloan's pre-1960's basketball wired brain) -- just look in his first 20 games with the Jazz he was shooting 4.35 threes a game. Things did change as the season went on and in his last 20 games last season that was cut down to 3.2 a game. That does not mean that he was generally shooting less in total, but he was shooting smarter shots within the team offense. (In his last 20 games he still had a few games where he shot more than 5 threes, but this time around they came within the construct of the Jazz offense, instead of against the offense) Another factor is that as the season went on he rarely shot threes when there wasn't at least one Jazz guy in the paint to potentially grab the rebound. Before, in his first 20 games, he was a volume shooter who did not take 'smart' shots. I expect his shots to be even 'smarter' after a full training camp.
3. Better team defense: Kyle is never going to be confused with Michael Cooper or Joe Dumars. That said, he's not completely hopeless on defense. His days playing one on one against Allen Iverson in Philly has taught him to sag off of quicker guards and stay in front of them. This is, really, fundamentally sound defense, as he tries to get in situations where he is beat off the dribble increasingly less. It still happens, but he does something that few guards really do. His 6'7 frame and lack of expected ability allow him to get a ridiculous number of weakside, stealth blocks. [0.5 bpg with the Jazz last season, tied for 3rd best on the team] Last season he had 9 games of at least 2 blocks. Really. Look it up. That includes games where he had 4 blocks against the Wizards, and 3 against the Nuggets. Furthermore, he'd have a lot more blocks but the score keepers are themselves so surprised that they do not even record some of his blocks as blocks at all! That said, he's not a great defender. He is fundamentally sound, long, and hopefully with the help of training camp, become a better team defender. And frankly, if you aren't getting better defensively after a Jerry Sloan training camp then you are incapable of getting better defensively. (I'm looking at you, Carlos!)

Top 5 Moves of the Summer (...so far...)

While the NBA has not been rocked by some four team, 16 player trade this off-season moves have been made which have changed the landscape of the league. October is just around the corner, 8 weeks away, and much can still happen. The market value for players has been relatively set by the offers and contracts signed by players like Elton Brand, Luol Deng, Baron Davis and so forth. There are a handful of interesting free agents left (Josh Smith, Andrei Iguodala, Ben Gordon, J.R. Smith and so forth), but with the NBA draft finished and most teams approaching luxury tax, the majority of moves will occur via trades. That said, what are some of the 5 top moves of the summer?

1. Elton Brand leaves the Clippers and goes to the Sixers: First of all, this basically destroyed the Clippers, they will continue to suck for a while. Getting Baron Davis is nice; it's nice that they traded for Camby and gave up nothing for him; and it's nice that they got Ricky Buckets . . . but Philly is just so much better right now with Andre Miller, Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert and most likely Iggy. The Sixers have to be considered a top 6 team in the Eastern Conference right now. Brand will probably be an All-Star in the East this season as well. Great move for him, even if it splits up the really cool idea of him and Baron in Hollywood making movies together.
2. The European Evasion: NBA players are leaving the NBA to go play in Europe. When guys like Arvydas Sabonis or Sarunas Jasikevicius do it, no one really cares. When an American born kid like Josh Childress bolts everyone gets upset -- if for nothing else but the fact that Free Agents can now use real or imagined contract offers to use as leverage when negotiating contracts with NBA clubs. Other players who leave (or at least flirt with leaving) this off-season are Nenad Krstic, Sasha Vujacic, Primoz Brezec, Carlos Delfino, Jorge Garbajosa, Carl Landry, Jason Williams, Delonte West and others. Matt Moore postulates about a possible reaction by the NBA to this, methinks that this may come up in the next NBA Player's Association / NBA Team Owners meeting and a few tweaks of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) may occur. Let's not forget that plenty of NBA stars stole some money in Europe after their playing days in the NBA were done (like Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen and Dominique Wilkins . . . not to mention European guys like Sabonis or Vlade). Why can't mid-level NBA talent choose to go where the money is? They can, and apparently are!
3. Golden State and Chris Mullin over-react to losing Baron Davis: First of all, they enlist some help from the Department of Redundancy Department and end up signing another swingman in Corey Maggette (what happens to Steven Jackson?); then they throw bags and bags of money at Andris Biedrins; they steal Rony Turiaf from the LA Lakers and then make a small move for Marcus Williams. All of this is still < Baron Davis. I take great pleasure in seeing this team do poorly, and love how all of their bandwagoning fans will be quiet on the Internet again. (Note: Not all "Dubs" fans are bandwagoners, but a large vocal majority of them that were loud during the 2006-2007 Playoffs were, deal with it.) At least they'll always have that one Baron Davis dunk over Andrei Kirilenko to keep themselves warm . . . oh wait! He's not even theirs anymore, he belongs to Clippers fans now. Well, now the Warriors are screwed money wise, just like they were when they paid Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle tons of money a few seasons ago.
4. T-Mac and Yao get a Tru Warrier: Easily the Rockets have been one of the worst playoff performing franchises that regularly get in the playoffs in recent memory. In the 11 years from the 1997-1998 season to this last one (2007-2008) they have been outed in the first round 6 times. They didn't make the playoff at all the other 5 times. While T-Mac gets a lot of the blame for this, I really thing the issue is Yao Ming's inability to be a big game player. Now they get some help by adding Ron Artest for the low low price of Bobby Jackson and some garbage. Artest is an expressive individual who probably can be the best player on this team on any given night. Houston is a lot more dangerous now. This is big news for a team that's had a top 4 record in the Western Conference the last two seasons. I also appreciate how he and Yao are having a verbal fight over the phone and Internet already. This is the omega trade for high risk/high reward.
5. Brooklyn New Jersey keeps making moves for LeBron in 2010: LeBron James is quite a catch. He would be the best player in this new NBA to be put in a large media market. Eventually the Nets franchise will move to Brooklyn, and the New York market is huge. LeBron becomes a free agent in 2010. Noted scandal rags have suggested that LeBron signing with the Nets really depends on who the Nets have on their team at that point. A quick look at their salary situation strongly points to a loss of swingmen on contract at the end of the 2009-2010 season, at the price of nearly $13 million dollars. Another issue to mull over for LeBron is the whole China market issue. Yi Jianlian is now a Net, and he's the only other guy in the NBA who is from China. The Milwaukee Bucks even focused part of their 2008 NBA Draft strategy on this point by drafting a guy who grew up in China and Taiwan and HK. Too bad for them, Yi is gone. LeBron could make a ton of cash if he was on the same team as Yi. He knows this. LeBron wants to be the richest man in the world -- if he wants to really be that guy, he's not going to do that in Cleveland. Let's not even bring up the whole Jay-Z thing . . .

Time will tell if these moves will improve their teams, or elicit other reactionary changes in the landscape (like the whole slew of trades that occurred in the Western Conference last season -- Kover, Kidd, Gasol, Shaq, etc). Regardless if they are good moves, they do make for a much changed landscape in the NBA. Philly is good again, Houston may finally make it out of the first round, Golden State is crap again and the Nets are making moves.

Point for Point

The Utah Jazz have been lucky in some ways, and unlucky in others. One of the greatest examples of this is how they have had some pretty good point guard play over the years. Perhaps luck has nothing to do with it, and it's rather the scouting department and player development that has much to do with the apparent success of Ricky Green, John Stockton and now, Deron Williams. Of course there were some lean years along the way, specifically the capable though unspectacular trio of Carlos "Pride of Puerto Rico" Arroyo; Raul "The Hispanic Heartthrob"Lopez; and Maurice "Mo" Williams -- but those days are now gone.

Recently, as recent as last week, the Utah Jazz front office was able to trade Jason Hart for Brevin Knight. This type of trade may have no overt impact in the short term -- though this trade may resonate within the consciousness of fans for generations to come -- like the trade that brought Ostertag back to Utah. Or maybe not. That said, this position for the Jazz has not been this secure since the days of Stockton, Eisley and Vaughn.

Point for point -- Brevin Knight is the superior player out of the two traded. Through this measure, Kevin O'Connor won the trade. It doesn't hurt that Knight makes less money and is pretty talented for a 3rd stringer. It's also good to know that Knight is just too damn short, and not a good enough shooter for Jerry Sloan to go crazy, and contemplate starting -- like he did with that Deron Williams / Derek Fisher starting lineup in the 2006-2007 season. Neither are perfect . . . Hart was to bring defense and veteran leadership, but ended the season deep on the bench while Ronnie Price made fans and the media go wow! Brevin is good at taking care of the ball, but has made only 16 career three pointers. That is a ridiculously low number which makes me cringe at the thought of him being in the game, and the other team immediately clogging the paint and passing lanes with a super-duper zone defense.

Photo by NBAE / Getty Images	Photo by NBAE / Getty Images

At the risk of repeating myself, Knight is a solid 3rd stringer because he is frequently unable to stay healthy for any long period of time, is very short, and can't shoot. All of our sets that we run rely on the point guard being able to, at the very least, keep the defense honest. Outside shooting is a key component of the NBA today -- when Portland found out that the Jazz had spotty shooting from deep (before the Korver trade) they just zoned us and laughed. I don't want a repeat of that horrible December, 2007.

Knight is also great insurance. Sometimes players get tired. And tired players who play long minutes are at risk of getting injured. John Stockton played in the Olympics in the summer of '92 and again in '96. Each season after the Olympics he had relatively 'down' seasons in the NBA (scoring and assists went down from 1991-1992 to 1992-1993, and again in 1995-1996 to 1996-1997). [For those keeping track at home, the Jazz went to the Western Conference Finals in 1991-1992, then the next season were bounced from the 1st round of the Playoffs. In 1995-1996 the Jazz were again defeated in the Western Conference Finals, and in the next season lost in the NBA Finals.] The Jazz Brass want to make sure that if Deron needs more time during the regular season to rest that they can afford to let him have it.

"I'm happy to be coming to a winning team with very good players and a Hall of Fame coach . . . How can I be upset with that? I'm also looking forward to hearing the cheers and not the boos from Jazz fans. I see my role as being a veteran guy there to do whatever is necessary to help the team win. I'll more know about that when I get to down." (Knight, 2008, via. The Salt Lake Tribune)

It's a solid deal for the Jazz, may have had some influence on the C.J. Miles re-signing and could be good for us down the road. Great move Kevin O'Connor!

"Those aren't pillows!"

For those who don't know, that's a quote from the great movie "Planes, Trains and Automobiles" which stars Steve Martin and the late John Candy. What does this quote have to do with anything? Well, at the point in time when this quote happens the protagonist (Martin) is lulled into a false sense of security, only to have his entire world shook from their foundations. Shortly after there is a reference made to the Chicago Bears. That's a tangent though.

The point is (yes there is one) the Utah Jazz have been reported (via KFan 1320 when I was on hold with them for 30 mins trying to talk) to have traded Jason Hart to the LA Clippers for Brevin Knight. Yes, I know what you are thinking.
	"Wait . . . what? Hart for Knight? Those aren't pillows!!!!"

Does this deal matter? You better bet your black ass it does. It matters plenty, maybe just not in the way you'd think. Deron Williams, aka: he who makes Utah so Jazzy, plays a lot of mpg. Last season he played 37.3 mpg, and the season before, 36.9 mpg. At the least, he's going to play around 35 mpg (But in reality, more like 37 mpg again). The NBA game is 48 minutes total. 48 - 35 = ???

Yup, 13 minutes to fight for between Brevin Knight and Ronnie Price. (At the most, not including games where there is foul trouble or, knock on wood, injuries) Last season Hart averaged 10.6 mpg, and Price 9.6 mpg. Brevin clocks in at 23 mpg. He's not going to play that much, if he plays at all. He is slightly injury prone, but that may not even be an issue. Hart played in 57 games last season and his play on the court hurt the jazz more than his availability to play. I think that this move (which gives the clippers a $2.5 million dollar contract for 1 season, and the jazz that a $2 million dollar contract for 1 season) does nothing useful for us but saves us $500,000.00.

This means that this trade alone makes little sense, but there is something else happening in the big picture. We're saving half a million for something. KOC let loose that there was some numerical contract hiccup in C.J.'s new deal. I would think that these two issues -- the trade for Brevin and C.J.'s contract -- to be slightly related on some level. The Jazz could be making space to sign C.J., while fitting him under the cap a bit more in the future.

Photo by NBAE / Getty Images	Photo by some card company	Photo by NBAE / Getty Images	Photo by NBAE / Getty Images

Maybe I'm all wrong about this, but what needs to be clearly stated is that, on its' own, this trade makes no sense in the big picture as both contracts expire this 2008-2009 season. Brevin is an upgrade for sure, but he may not even have to play a single game to make an impact for us this season. Money is a big deal, and every team has to maneuver around to maximize it. This could be a deal that makes more sense in the big picture -- once the big picture occurs.

At the very least, this is a slight upgrade at face value . . . as long as this is talking about the 3rd PG spot, and not upsetting the depth chart to make space for a 5'10 guard who is horrible at shooting, doesn't have three point range (the Jazz sets rely on a PG who can hit the three), and never is healthy.

The Associated Press and ESPN.com are also carrying this story.