Looking at the Top five 6th men so far . . .

According to ESPN.com, or at least a poll on their website, the Top 5 sixth men candidates are:

1. the LA Lakers' Lamar Odom,
2. Chicago's Ben Gordon,
3. Philly's Lou Williams,
4. Portland's Rudy Fernandez
5. and Utah's Andrei Kirilenko.

Predictably, as of right now, Odom is number one with 33% of the over 9,000 votes. Coming in second is Portland's rookie Fernandez at 26% of the vote. Next is AK-47 with 21%. Ben Gordon and Lou Williams round out the top 5 with 10% each. I think I've already made myself pretty clear when looking at how dumb some people are, so let's not even bother with the results of this vote. Let's, instead, look at how these guys are actually playing right now.

Player	Lamar Odom	Rudy Fernandez	Andrei Kirilenko	Ben Gordon	Lou Williams
Team	LA Lakers	Portland Trailblazers	Utah Jazz	Chicago Bulls	Philadelphia 76ers
ESPN Vote	33%	26%	21%	10%	10%
MPG	26.0	27.0	32.7	26.8	23.0
Games	3	3	3	4	4
PPG	8.3	14.0	14.0	14.3	12.5
FG%	45.0%	48.3%	53.6%	41.3%	39.6%
3PT%	0.0%	40.0%	50.0%	43.8%	23.1%
FT%	77.9%	88.9%	73.3%	85.7%	69.2%
Shooting Worth *	1.25	1.45	1.50	1.24	1.04
Shooting Frequency **	3.85	2.83	3.50	2.30	1.92
APG	2.33	1.33	3.00	3.00	2.50
A:TO	1.4	2.0	1.5	1.33	1.25
RPG	5.67	2.00	8.67	1.50	1.50
SPG	0.33	1.00	2.33	0.50	0.25
BPG	0.33	0.0	1.67	0.0	0.0
B+S/PF ***	0.33	1.00	1.71	0.29	0.33
PFPG	2.0	1.00	2.33	1.75	0.75
TOPG	1.67	0.67	2.00	2.25	2.0

N.B. These stats may look different than what you see on NBA.com or ESPN.com because these stats are not rounded to the tenth place, but the hundredth place -- they are derived from the total value over the number of games as usual, but to two decimal places. For example, ESPN.com rounds Lou Williams fouls per game to be 0.8, where as he has 3 fouls in 4 games, which is actually 0.75.

* Shooting worth was previous my erroneously named "points per shot" stat. This is derived by dividing the total number of points scored (not just from FGA, but also FTM) by how many total FGA the player has made. This 'worth' inflates the scores of players who get to the line and make their free throws, while penalizing players who need a lot of shots to score. The higher the number the better. For example: Lamar Odom has scored a total of 25 points (10+9+6) and shot the ball  20 (6+5+9) times. This is then 25/20, for a shooting worth of 1.25 points for each shot.

** Shooting frequency is what I used to call "shots per minute", which is wrong; this stat is how many minutes needed to take a shot. Or in plan English, "Player ______ shoots the ball every x number of minutes on the floor". The lower the number the more frequently the player shoots. Again, with Odom being the example he has shot the ball 20 times this season. He has played a total of 77 (29+23+25) minutes this season. Here we divide the total number of minutes played by how many shots were taken. In this case (77/20) we get 3.85. That means that Odom shoots the ball once every 3.85 minutes played. (or every 3:51, if you want to figure out how many seconds 0.85 minutes is). If we compare this to Kobe's shooting frequency (which is calculated out to 1.83 <-- 97 minutes played / 53 FGA) we can see that this is not a very high number at all.

*** Blocks + Steals / Personal Fouls is another "Amar stat" that is very easy to understand. It's simply the total number of blocks + the total number of steals all divided by the total number of personal fouls. [The equation is: (blocks + steals) / PF ] It's a stat that attempts to gauge how effectively a player gambles on defense by how often they are tagged for fouling. If you just stand there on defense you probably are not going to pick up a lot of fouls. If you try to go for steals, or challenge shots you have a higher chance of getting called for a foul. So in a way, this monitors activity on defense as a product of how well they avoid fouling. I'd love it if the NBA officially recorded deflections though . . . they don't. So this is the best I can do. The higher the number the better. So, using Odom as an example here: so far he has 1 block and 1 steal. He has fouled 6 total times this season (1+2+3). So this becomes 2 / 6, or 0.33. He has more fouls than steals and blocks combined. He may be playing good defense, but he's not recording defensive stats for it.

So yeah, it doesn't take a Rocket Surgeon, or John Hollinger, to figure out which one of these five guys is actually playing the best right now. It's Andrei Kirilenko who is 1st or 2nd in all the categories. But if you like Hollinger's PER stat, here are the breakdowns: Rudy Fernandez 24.66; Andrei Kirilenko 23.97; Ben Gordon 15.90; Lou Williams 15.66; Lamar Odom 12.49. The same size of 3 or 4 games is really small though, but right now it's an easy call. I will be watching this race as the season goes on though . . .

Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)

News Headlines - The calm before the storm

Can you believe that it's almost October? Really? We're less than half a month away and more and more NBA news will be coming in the near future. [point of reference: us bloggers have lamented how boring the Month of August was, imagine how bereft of information it will be in those non-Olympic years!] Anyway, here is a quick rundown of some Jazz related stories:

* The Dominator is ubiquitous -- Deron Williams is "The Man" of this team, and lives in SLC full time, and as a result, he's been busy there full time giving back to the community, read about in the Desert Morning News! "When Williams first appeared in Utah, he was confident but guarded. Charles Barkley he wasn't. But as time passed, he became increasingly willing to show his humor. Sometimes it's simply a glint in his eye or a short one-liner. For those he trusts, he's engaging and cooperative, the proverbial good guy. Which raises the obvious question: What's in it for him? Is this some kind of radical publicity blitz? Probably not, since he had already signed his contract extension before most of this happened. "We didn't just sit down and say, 'Deron, we've got to come up with a major media crash course,' like we're promoting a movie," said Wright. "It's not like that. People were calling and saying, 'Can you go here?' And a lot of it, if it fit into his schedule, we did." Wright says Williams also did it because he understands he's the Jazz's guy. His team, his town, his responsibility. Which is quite unusual. The team has three players who have been All-Stars (Boozer, Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur), yet the most popular, and the unchallenged leader, is Williams." (Brad Rock, 2008, Deseret News)

 

* Steve Luhm (of the Salt Lake Tribune) talks about the 2010 Draft pick that we own, and how the improvement of the New York Knicks may reduce what looked like a for sure lock at a Top 5 pick in that draft. "The Knicks weren't going anywhere under Isiah Thomas and the Jazz's chances of being in the top five or top 10 of the 2010 draft with the pick previously acquired from New York would have improved had he stayed in charge. The hiring of Donnie Walsh as team president and Mike D'Antoni as coach is first step toward respectability for the Knicks, which is not good news for the Jazz. Walsh's track record and reputation are impeccable. He's one of the best in the business and was the perfect choice to direct the reconstruction in New York. D'Antoni? I've known him since he was hired as Denver's director of player personnel in 1997. During the lockout-shortened 1999 season, D'Antoni inherited the impossible job of head coach and guided the Nuggets to a 14-36 record. He was not retained, but got a second chance to be an NBA head coach in Phoenix, starting early in the 2003-04 season. Everybody who follows the NBA knows what kind of job D'Antoni did with the Suns." (Luhm, 2008, Salt Lake Tribune)

 

* AK back to Russia, for reals this time, people! -- People love to jump to unreasonable conclusions, as a story grows exponentially with each blog that links to it, and gives their take -- I read this blog post from "The Hoop" from a variety of sources (ballhype and dimemag) today, and Dime even goes the distance to suggest that solving the financial burden in Utah is as easy as shipping AK off to CSKA Moscow (reading jazzfanz much?)-- because of their "reported" interest in him. Didn't they have 'reported' interest in Ben Gordon too? How did that work out? The Hoop reports from somewhere else (krepsinis.net?) that this can be a done deal, and that it may have some weight because Andrei hasn't renewed his contract with the Utah Jazz yet. First of all, it's good to check your sources.

There are a few places on the net that show these financial facts quite easily . . . Andrei is under contract for three more seasons @ $15 million, $16.5 million and $17.8 million. So not only is AK not able to renew his contract (as it's not expiring), but this means that CSKA would have to buy out his contract from the Jazz (much like how when NBA teams have to buy out contracts from big dogs across the pond, it works both ways guys). This guy (Anthony) said it best:

"I mean, CSKA's got money, but I don't know if they have 3 years/50 mil of buyout money to go along with a similar sized contract. His wife has a shop in Salt Lake, he's good friends with the other Eastern European dudes on the team, and he has one of the best point guards in the league (and if Boozer bolts he'd become his preferred target). Something tells me that this won't happen.

Scratch that, everything tells me that this won't happen."  (comment from The Hoop article, 2008)

 

* Training camp Tid-bits -- It basically starts on September 29th with media day (yes, we'll get to find out what hair color Fesenko currently has, or if Kover finally got that 'Thugg Life' tattoo he kept suggesting that he'd get over the summer), then they're off to Boise from September 30th to October 3rd. (Mark your calendar, Masha!)

When this happens each year I think of Jerry Sloan telling all the players that for that point in time that he's going to be their daddies, and that he forces integration by having unlikely pals to room mate together -- like, a few seasons ago we may have had Greg Ostertag sharing a room with DeShawn Stevenson. Okay, sure, my entire concept of Jazz training camp is like that sequence from "Remember the Titans".

Just fast-forward to the 3:30 mark if you don't want to watch all of this, the best part (the part I'm talking about) starts at 6:30 . . .anyway . . . the first pre-season game is against the Lakers on October 7th in Anaheim. Woo!

 

* Trickle down economics means that during an energy crisis air travel is more expensive . . . duh. Thanks for showing up Jasen Lee.

Top 5 Moves of the Summer (...so far...)

While the NBA has not been rocked by some four team, 16 player trade this off-season moves have been made which have changed the landscape of the league. October is just around the corner, 8 weeks away, and much can still happen. The market value for players has been relatively set by the offers and contracts signed by players like Elton Brand, Luol Deng, Baron Davis and so forth. There are a handful of interesting free agents left (Josh Smith, Andrei Iguodala, Ben Gordon, J.R. Smith and so forth), but with the NBA draft finished and most teams approaching luxury tax, the majority of moves will occur via trades. That said, what are some of the 5 top moves of the summer?

1. Elton Brand leaves the Clippers and goes to the Sixers: First of all, this basically destroyed the Clippers, they will continue to suck for a while. Getting Baron Davis is nice; it's nice that they traded for Camby and gave up nothing for him; and it's nice that they got Ricky Buckets . . . but Philly is just so much better right now with Andre Miller, Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert and most likely Iggy. The Sixers have to be considered a top 6 team in the Eastern Conference right now. Brand will probably be an All-Star in the East this season as well. Great move for him, even if it splits up the really cool idea of him and Baron in Hollywood making movies together.
2. The European Evasion: NBA players are leaving the NBA to go play in Europe. When guys like Arvydas Sabonis or Sarunas Jasikevicius do it, no one really cares. When an American born kid like Josh Childress bolts everyone gets upset -- if for nothing else but the fact that Free Agents can now use real or imagined contract offers to use as leverage when negotiating contracts with NBA clubs. Other players who leave (or at least flirt with leaving) this off-season are Nenad Krstic, Sasha Vujacic, Primoz Brezec, Carlos Delfino, Jorge Garbajosa, Carl Landry, Jason Williams, Delonte West and others. Matt Moore postulates about a possible reaction by the NBA to this, methinks that this may come up in the next NBA Player's Association / NBA Team Owners meeting and a few tweaks of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) may occur. Let's not forget that plenty of NBA stars stole some money in Europe after their playing days in the NBA were done (like Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen and Dominique Wilkins . . . not to mention European guys like Sabonis or Vlade). Why can't mid-level NBA talent choose to go where the money is? They can, and apparently are!
3. Golden State and Chris Mullin over-react to losing Baron Davis: First of all, they enlist some help from the Department of Redundancy Department and end up signing another swingman in Corey Maggette (what happens to Steven Jackson?); then they throw bags and bags of money at Andris Biedrins; they steal Rony Turiaf from the LA Lakers and then make a small move for Marcus Williams. All of this is still < Baron Davis. I take great pleasure in seeing this team do poorly, and love how all of their bandwagoning fans will be quiet on the Internet again. (Note: Not all "Dubs" fans are bandwagoners, but a large vocal majority of them that were loud during the 2006-2007 Playoffs were, deal with it.) At least they'll always have that one Baron Davis dunk over Andrei Kirilenko to keep themselves warm . . . oh wait! He's not even theirs anymore, he belongs to Clippers fans now. Well, now the Warriors are screwed money wise, just like they were when they paid Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle tons of money a few seasons ago.
4. T-Mac and Yao get a Tru Warrier: Easily the Rockets have been one of the worst playoff performing franchises that regularly get in the playoffs in recent memory. In the 11 years from the 1997-1998 season to this last one (2007-2008) they have been outed in the first round 6 times. They didn't make the playoff at all the other 5 times. While T-Mac gets a lot of the blame for this, I really thing the issue is Yao Ming's inability to be a big game player. Now they get some help by adding Ron Artest for the low low price of Bobby Jackson and some garbage. Artest is an expressive individual who probably can be the best player on this team on any given night. Houston is a lot more dangerous now. This is big news for a team that's had a top 4 record in the Western Conference the last two seasons. I also appreciate how he and Yao are having a verbal fight over the phone and Internet already. This is the omega trade for high risk/high reward.
5. Brooklyn New Jersey keeps making moves for LeBron in 2010: LeBron James is quite a catch. He would be the best player in this new NBA to be put in a large media market. Eventually the Nets franchise will move to Brooklyn, and the New York market is huge. LeBron becomes a free agent in 2010. Noted scandal rags have suggested that LeBron signing with the Nets really depends on who the Nets have on their team at that point. A quick look at their salary situation strongly points to a loss of swingmen on contract at the end of the 2009-2010 season, at the price of nearly $13 million dollars. Another issue to mull over for LeBron is the whole China market issue. Yi Jianlian is now a Net, and he's the only other guy in the NBA who is from China. The Milwaukee Bucks even focused part of their 2008 NBA Draft strategy on this point by drafting a guy who grew up in China and Taiwan and HK. Too bad for them, Yi is gone. LeBron could make a ton of cash if he was on the same team as Yi. He knows this. LeBron wants to be the richest man in the world -- if he wants to really be that guy, he's not going to do that in Cleveland. Let's not even bring up the whole Jay-Z thing . . .

Time will tell if these moves will improve their teams, or elicit other reactionary changes in the landscape (like the whole slew of trades that occurred in the Western Conference last season -- Kover, Kidd, Gasol, Shaq, etc). Regardless if they are good moves, they do make for a much changed landscape in the NBA. Philly is good again, Houston may finally make it out of the first round, Golden State is crap again and the Nets are making moves.