Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer 6th best Backcourt in NBA ?

There are some really good tandems out there in the NBA right now. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobili along with Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen obviously comprise championship caliber backcourts. Mike Bibby paired up with Joe Johnson causes all kinds of trouble for defenders – similarly Steve Nash and Jason Richardson can flat out make defenders look silly. Even hypothetically amazing backcourts will assemble this season, like in Portland with Andre Miller and Brandon Roy, and down in Orlando with Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter. These are all great backcourts in paper, but just where does Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer rank among them? Justin DeFeo, of Sir Charles in Charge, states that the Jazz tandem is clearly a Top 10 backcourt in the league – 6th specifically – and one where both players “compliment each other well,” (DeFeo, 2009, ¶13). He continues to say that:

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Williams is the do it all point guard and has the ball in his hands often, so he needs to be paired with a shooting guard who can do other things (defend, rebound) and create opportunities for himself without the ball (steals, loose balls, offensive rebounds) and thats (sic) the type of game Brewer has.

This is high praise, and I fully appreciate someone else noticing that while Deron isn’t a classic point guard, and Brewer surely is not a classic shooting guard (isn’t he just a SF who defends the other teams’ best perimeter scorer?), that together they are a pretty good team. Let’s go over some of the ways in which they do compliment each other:

Offense:

Deron dominates the ball on offense. Some teams have some sort of ball-sharing provision between the PG and the SG (like how Brandon Roy basically had to do everything himself in Portland). This has never been the case in Utah, not in Stockton’s time, and not now. Deron has a very solid handle on the ball and is able to maneuver himself into the lane with or without help from screens. Williams does this not with simple blinding speed, or a series of picks from teammates, he uses power and finesse to go from point A to point B, going over any and all terrain in the process. He has all the moves, and can get into the lane whenever he wants. (Essentially, he’s a swashbuckler with a basketball in his hands) He’s not just a PG who will bring the ball up the floor, hang out at the three point line, and pass the ball to someone to start a play. Deron’s penetration allows for defenders to shift their attention from the man they are guarding to Deron Williams (who is a scoring threat in the lane). This shifted attention allows for guys who move well without the ball to find open spots (often in their defender’s blindspots) and be in scoring position. If Deron Williams is daring swashbuckler who can move with a quickness and body control that belie his physique then Ronnie Brewer is the stealthy assassin who moves in the shadows, unaccounted for, with muscles tensed up for a finishing strike. It happens again, and again and again. Ideally, a drive and dish PG would be paired with a guy who had a reliable outside shot – but at best, a three pointer is a 40% success rate, while dunks are, generally speaking, much, much more effective.

Deron is a capable three point shooter – though his percentage has been a roller coaster his entire NBA career (42%, then 32%, then 40%, then 31%), and if he’s the only one of the two with an outside shot you can clearly see a deficiency in that department for this backcourt tandem. (By comparison, LA, Orlando, Atlanta and a few other teams on DeFeo’s list are replete with guys who can absolutely bomb from outside)

This group is just as adept in halfcourt sets as they are on the break. Utah produces a lot of deflections and Brewer starts as many breaks (with his natural quickness and 6’11 wingspan) as he is capable of finishing (with his 42” vertical). Deron hardly ever makes the wrong decision on who to pass to, and the two (naturally) hook up for Alley-Oops more frequently than any Utah tandem since Mark Jackson played here. Offensively, the two are nearly a match made in heaven.

Defense:

If Deron is the leader on Offense, Ronnie is the leader on Defense. Brewer starts the game off checking the other teams’ best scoring wing – regardless if he is a shooter or slasher or whatever. Ronnie gets the call until AK gets off the bench. If the last few playoffs are an indication – few players play better man defense (without fouling) on Kobe Bryant than Brewer does. In no way am I suggesting that Brewer shuts Kobe down, I’m just saying that he plays good man defense. Many times I’ve seen Kobe take shots that absolutely could not have been defended better without the aid of being allowed to do Bruce Bowen style fouling, and still make them over Ronnie. Kobe just makes amazing shots – and he’s had quite a few against Brewer. Brewer is more than just a speed bump on defense. His long arms, quickness and penchant for playing the passing lanes made him one of the league leaders in steals last season. He’s long enough, with good enough hops that I would expect him to get more ‘from behind’ LeBron style blocks this season though. While Brewer is a physical freak, his defensive instincts lead the way – and that’s usually towards pressuring the other team into making a mistake.

Deron does not get all the flashy steals that Brewer does, but he is quick enough on defense to stay with faster ball handlers, and just big and physical enough to discourage them from driving too much. (Just look at how the, honestly, best PG in the NBA, Chris Paul, is so taken out of his game whenever he plays Deron. CP3 owns everyone, and he is rightfully the best PG in the league right now. Deron is just the perfect storm on defense to give him trouble, and good enough on offense to tire him out there) If the first foundation for team defense is to slow down the other team’s ball handler / forward progression, then it’s obvious that Deron Williams is a very solid defender.

Together they comprise a physical, long defensive backcourt. Brewer is 6’7 with the previously mentioned 6’11 wingspan and the quickness of a man much smaller than he. Deron is a 6’3 point guard who was a wrestler in high school and deceptively quick. (check out his draft combine scores, you’ll be surprised) If anything, I think that they are better on defense than they are on offense!

What do the Stats Say:

I’m a stats junkie. So this is important to me. Also, I guess I’m debuting my new stats format. If you want to know about what some of these things are, you can always read my treatise on my own created stats. If you don’t want to, just wait for the analysis that will appear below.

Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer

First of all, for those of you following along at home, I have changed the GO Rating, and expect a new post about the New formula shortly. What you need to know about it is what these scores mean. The GO Rating incorporates all possible statistically tracked outcomes on offense, hence the full name of “Gestalt Offense”. The GO Rating is in light blue, all the things in the light blue cell background are my own invented stats. I think they better round out what you see. Anyway . . . what is a good GO Rating? I depends on what you are looking for. If you are a point guard it’s hard to be upset if you get a rating in the 130’s. Magic Johnson’s regular season career totals calculate to a GO Rating of 138.784. Allen Iverson’s GO Rating for the same category (career regular season stats) is 134.883. Deron gets 135.701 for his work last season – though shortened by injury, arguably his best season ever. As a further point of reference, Gary Payton’s career GO Rating is 88.882, that’s almost 50 points lower than Deron. Brewer’s rating is much lower, but that’s due to a few major factors. Firstly, wing players who do not take many shots (see shooting frequency, the higher the number the more time it takes to get a shot off) hardly ever do well. Scottie Pippen’s GO Rating for his career regular season stats stands at only 71.431. As solid as Pip was offensively, Brewer is nearly there in his 3rd season in the NBA. That’s not too shabby.

Again, the stats don’t lie when they show how poorly they are as a team when it comes to three point shooting. They make up for it with stellar eField Goal percentages (which I think are more important than just FG% and 3PT%). They both shoot better than average, when it comes to their shooting worth (average being 1.2). Offensively they are very competent getting to the line a combined 10 times a game and averaging over 30 points between the two, while dishing the ball with a good Assists to Turn over ratio. Offensively they put up quite solid stats, and I feel like they are even better defensively. Of course, defensive stats are pretty much useless, so take these with a grain of salt. (if you want more on that rant, read my treatise, linked above)

These guys don’t usually get called for fouls, so that’s pretty good. What is even better is that both of them come out on the positive side of their defensive gambling – Brewer especially makes very smart gambles on defense: effectively getting 2 steals for each fouls he commits. If he was to gamble defensively at that rate he would foul out with nearly 8 steals a game. (For those watching him closely know that he got 6 steals in a recent USA Select team scrimmage) Deron still manages over a steal per game as well, and his primary duty is to man up on his guy, and not actually go for steals. Neither of them block worth a damn – though Brewer should get more in my opinion. Both of their pure hustle ratings clearly fall below that of the Dream Team members, but exist within an acceptable range for starters in today’s NBA. These defensive statistics are not overwhelming – but I don’t put much stock in defensive stats at all. The best defense causes no effect on an individual’s boxscore; if you defend a guy so well that he takes shot he can’t make then you get nothing, except the satisfaction of playing good defense. These two guys are good defensive players – but Brewer gambles more and gets more steals – and it shows.

Conclusion:

Some statistics are worth more than others, and I’d put my money on the offensive ones actually relating to actually being good at playing. That said, Deron and Ronnie are a better defensive tandem than offensively, where their weaknesses are more exposed. (Weaknesses being that neither of them shot over 35% from three last year; as a unit they do not produce much from deep per game; they both do not jack up shots frequently (jacking up shots gives you a better Shooting Frequency and GO Rating for some reason); and so forth) Other guard tandems will score more points per game, and probably get to the free throw line more times per game. There will always be a better offensive tandem around. Collectively Ronnie and Deron make up a better defensive force, and have the talent and ability to get better (they are both closer to 20 than 30 – guys like Kobe, Fish, Vince, Nash, J-Kidd and others are getting up there and aren’t going to be as good in the next few seasons). They can be a Top 5 starting backcourt in the NBA, but they just aren’t quite there yet. I agree with DeFeo’s rankings and thank him for posting this in the first place!

P.S. Thanks to J.E.Skeets for the Ball Don’t Lie link directing me to DeFeo’s post!

Flashback Friday: The 1990 NBA Draft

I remember back in the day when stupid kids brought up on Ahmad Rashad's "Inside Stuff" used to tell me that Kenny Anderson and Derrick Coleman were going to be better than John Stockton and Karl Malone. (most likely the same kids who'd tell me that Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp were going to be better than Stockton and Malone a few seasons later...) I still laugh at these types of suggestions. They are entirely preposterous. Anyway, I loath Derrick Coleman so much that I rank him as one of the worse 1st Pick of the Draft's ever. (Not as bad as Kwame Brown, but no where near as good as other 1st round picks) This lead me to looking at the 1990 NBA Draft. There *HAD* to be someone better than Coleman in his very own draft class . . . right? I think that looking at the actual draft class pretty much proves my null hypothesis incorrect . . . this draft was crap in so many ways -- almost a re-do of the Len Bias draft of 1986. Aside from Coleman being picked 1st, what other notable names were there?

• Chris Jackson Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf was picked in the lotto and battles Tourette syndrome and his short shooting guard status to make a few key buckets for the Nuggets
• Dennis Scott was 2 seasons away from being the kick out man from Shaq triple teams in Orlando
• Kendall Gill was drafted 5th, and had a pretty good career
• Felton Spencer was drafted 6th by the T-Wolves (crazy...)
• The L train (Lionel Simmons) went to the Kings, but he wasn't an All-Star like Coleman was
• Tyrone Hill was an All-Star one season, but he was just too ugly to ever be better than another player
• Loy Vaught was drafted in this 1st round as well, but did not really come around till a few seasons later, and did not last as long in the league
• Dee Brown (the dunker) was in this draft, but how was he not Nate Robinson before Nate Robinson?
• The end of the first round brought us this trio of bigmen: Dwayne Schintzius, Alaa Abdelnaby and Elden Campbell -- truly a fine way to end the round
• The 2nd round was very hit or miss, giving players like Toni Kukoc, Carl Herrera, Greg Foster, Bimbo Coles, Antonio Davis, Cedric Ceballos and Sean Higgins (probably best known for fighting with players when he became an assistant coach with the Golden State Warriors)

Oh yeah, I forgot this guy . . . the guy drafted right after Coleman . . . a guy they called The Glove! Coleman wasn't even the best player in his draft, and guys like Kukoc, or Ceballos did just as much as he did (if not more -- Ceballos did play in the finals). Payton was a multiple All-Star, played in the NBA finals, won a Gold Medal in the Olympics, and picked up a ring in Miami. He's going to the Hall of Fame, and was a better player and had a better career. Coleman shouldn't have been picked 1st, or heck, maybe 3rd at best. So, in closing . . . Coleman sucks.

Paying Homage, or plain being a homer?

I was reminded recently when looking over the wiki article listing the NBA players with retired jerseys list that some teams have a greater history than others. For example, the Lakers franchise celebrates (or will after Shaq retires, as his number is currently out of circulation) 15 people, while the cross town Clippers have nothing going on up in their part of the rafters in Staples Center. Additionally, some players are celebrated even in places that they have no affiliation for -- for example Michael Jordan (who is not from Miami, didn't play college in Florida, and has never played for any franchise down there) has his jersey retired by the Heat. The only thing I can think of that links the two is that Jordan used to kill the Heat and Knicks -- both teams when Pat Riley was the coach there. Well, Jordan is so larger than life that he was playing ball for the Bulls with his #45 while his #23 was up in the rafters -- then later unretired his jersey (paid the small fine) and was balling in that to end his Bulls career. Seriously, what a douche-bag. The list is interesting to look over, did you know that Jim Loscutoff, a Celtics player, actually asked for his number to be free to use by others?

"Loscutoff asked that his legacy be honored by allowing other Celtics to wear his number in the future. It was later retired in honor of [Dave] Cowens. Loscutoff is represented by a square with the letters "LOSCY"."(Wikipedia, 2008)

The Celtics keep it pretty simple	Does this mean that the Jazz have to retire a Kobe jersey?

Out of all the numbers retired (and some not retired . . .) there has to be some politics involved. Jazz fans know about the whole Adrian Dantley situation. He was a key player for our teams back when he played in Utah (1979-1986), and was 'The Man' when the Jazz first started winning division titles and going to the playoffs. He was a top 3 scorer in the NBA five different times, and was recently inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame. He left the Jazz under sour terms and his jersey retirement was passed over for many years while the Jazz franchise took care of these franchise icons first: Frank Layden in 1988, Darrell Griffith in 1993, Mark Eaton in 1996, Jeff Hornacek in 2002, John Stockton in 2004, and Karl Malone in 2006. They finally got around to Dantley (who had been retired since 1991, before every one of those guys but Coach Layden) in April of 2007. So getting your jersey retired involves more than just being a good player for a franchise. Just look at Jazz franchise great Pete Maravich.

Adrian Dantley	All 8 of 'em . . .	"Pistol" Pete

Pistol Pete was born in Pennsylvania and played college at LSU. He was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks back in 1969-1970 NBA Draft. He was traded to the expansion New Orleans Jazz franchise (1974-1975 season) for Dean Meminger, Bob Kauffman, two 1st round draft picks and two 2nd round draft picks. It is interesting to note that his years in New Orleans were relatively poor seasons for the team. If New Orleans was so great, why did they have to leave in the first place? If the fans really cared they never would have left. Yeah. The New Orleans fanbase is terrible. The fans have no heart, and don't really care about supporting their basketball franchise -- or at least they didn't back when Pete played there. (compare that to the wild fanbase that the Jazz franchise now is happy to have, it's a great contrast really)

That said, the Charlotte Hornets franchise decided to retire "Pistol" Pete's jersey when they moved to New Orleans. This is stupid, and their franchise is too. Pete was a great player at LSU (basically owning the entire NCAA), and was one of the most spectacular players in the NBA during his peak. But the New Orleans Hornets have no legitimate claim to Pete at all. The Utah Jazz did not retire Moses Malone's jersey -- even though he played for the Utah Stars back in the day. The New Orleans Hornets did not retire Shaquille O'Neal's jersey -- and he was a great player for LSU who also never played for the Charlotte Hornets franchise either. (Seriously, isn't that the qualification to get your jersey retired in New Orleans now-a-days?)

What I see this as is a cheap ploy to drum up interest in a city that has a history of not caring about their basketball team. If the Bulls team moves from Chicago to, lets say, Madrid (in David Stern's world, how far fetched is this in our lifetimes?), and Milwaukee's franchise gets relocated to the Chicago area does this mean that the Bucks franchise can now put up banners proclaiming Michael Jordan as one of their best players in franchise history? (Not that Jordan would care, the more retirements the merrier for him)

Or if the Sacramento Kings get relocated to Seattle, do they get the right to put up Gary Payton and Nate McMillan jerseys before their first home game? It would be one thing for the Charlotte Hornets to pick up the past of a dead franchise upon moving to a new city. (Like how the Toronto Raptors share some history with the Toronto Huskies) But it is an entirely different thing to steal players and history from an existing (and much better) franchise that previously played all of 4.5 seasons there. (as opposed to the 28.5 seasons in Utah)

Seriously Charlotte/New Orleans -- hang up some Muggsy Bogues jerseys instead -- you know, some players who actually played in your pitiful franchise. Rex Chapman isn't doing much now a days, maybe you can sell some more tickets that way. Not that it matters really . . . 19,907 > 14,181. Maybe we can loan you guys Karl Malone too, he played at Louisiana Tech in college and the Utah Jazz in the NBA as well. So that obviously makes him a franchise cornerstone for the Charlotte Hornets. Go knock yourselves out, New Orleans fans.