Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer 6th best Backcourt in NBA ?

There are some really good tandems out there in the NBA right now. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobili along with Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen obviously comprise championship caliber backcourts. Mike Bibby paired up with Joe Johnson causes all kinds of trouble for defenders – similarly Steve Nash and Jason Richardson can flat out make defenders look silly. Even hypothetically amazing backcourts will assemble this season, like in Portland with Andre Miller and Brandon Roy, and down in Orlando with Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter. These are all great backcourts in paper, but just where does Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer rank among them? Justin DeFeo, of Sir Charles in Charge, states that the Jazz tandem is clearly a Top 10 backcourt in the league – 6th specifically – and one where both players “compliment each other well,” (DeFeo, 2009, ¶13). He continues to say that:

Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Williams is the do it all point guard and has the ball in his hands often, so he needs to be paired with a shooting guard who can do other things (defend, rebound) and create opportunities for himself without the ball (steals, loose balls, offensive rebounds) and thats (sic) the type of game Brewer has.

This is high praise, and I fully appreciate someone else noticing that while Deron isn’t a classic point guard, and Brewer surely is not a classic shooting guard (isn’t he just a SF who defends the other teams’ best perimeter scorer?), that together they are a pretty good team. Let’s go over some of the ways in which they do compliment each other:

Offense:

Deron dominates the ball on offense. Some teams have some sort of ball-sharing provision between the PG and the SG (like how Brandon Roy basically had to do everything himself in Portland). This has never been the case in Utah, not in Stockton’s time, and not now. Deron has a very solid handle on the ball and is able to maneuver himself into the lane with or without help from screens. Williams does this not with simple blinding speed, or a series of picks from teammates, he uses power and finesse to go from point A to point B, going over any and all terrain in the process. He has all the moves, and can get into the lane whenever he wants. (Essentially, he’s a swashbuckler with a basketball in his hands) He’s not just a PG who will bring the ball up the floor, hang out at the three point line, and pass the ball to someone to start a play. Deron’s penetration allows for defenders to shift their attention from the man they are guarding to Deron Williams (who is a scoring threat in the lane). This shifted attention allows for guys who move well without the ball to find open spots (often in their defender’s blindspots) and be in scoring position. If Deron Williams is daring swashbuckler who can move with a quickness and body control that belie his physique then Ronnie Brewer is the stealthy assassin who moves in the shadows, unaccounted for, with muscles tensed up for a finishing strike. It happens again, and again and again. Ideally, a drive and dish PG would be paired with a guy who had a reliable outside shot – but at best, a three pointer is a 40% success rate, while dunks are, generally speaking, much, much more effective.

Deron is a capable three point shooter – though his percentage has been a roller coaster his entire NBA career (42%, then 32%, then 40%, then 31%), and if he’s the only one of the two with an outside shot you can clearly see a deficiency in that department for this backcourt tandem. (By comparison, LA, Orlando, Atlanta and a few other teams on DeFeo’s list are replete with guys who can absolutely bomb from outside)

This group is just as adept in halfcourt sets as they are on the break. Utah produces a lot of deflections and Brewer starts as many breaks (with his natural quickness and 6’11 wingspan) as he is capable of finishing (with his 42” vertical). Deron hardly ever makes the wrong decision on who to pass to, and the two (naturally) hook up for Alley-Oops more frequently than any Utah tandem since Mark Jackson played here. Offensively, the two are nearly a match made in heaven.

Defense:

If Deron is the leader on Offense, Ronnie is the leader on Defense. Brewer starts the game off checking the other teams’ best scoring wing – regardless if he is a shooter or slasher or whatever. Ronnie gets the call until AK gets off the bench. If the last few playoffs are an indication – few players play better man defense (without fouling) on Kobe Bryant than Brewer does. In no way am I suggesting that Brewer shuts Kobe down, I’m just saying that he plays good man defense. Many times I’ve seen Kobe take shots that absolutely could not have been defended better without the aid of being allowed to do Bruce Bowen style fouling, and still make them over Ronnie. Kobe just makes amazing shots – and he’s had quite a few against Brewer. Brewer is more than just a speed bump on defense. His long arms, quickness and penchant for playing the passing lanes made him one of the league leaders in steals last season. He’s long enough, with good enough hops that I would expect him to get more ‘from behind’ LeBron style blocks this season though. While Brewer is a physical freak, his defensive instincts lead the way – and that’s usually towards pressuring the other team into making a mistake.

Deron does not get all the flashy steals that Brewer does, but he is quick enough on defense to stay with faster ball handlers, and just big and physical enough to discourage them from driving too much. (Just look at how the, honestly, best PG in the NBA, Chris Paul, is so taken out of his game whenever he plays Deron. CP3 owns everyone, and he is rightfully the best PG in the league right now. Deron is just the perfect storm on defense to give him trouble, and good enough on offense to tire him out there) If the first foundation for team defense is to slow down the other team’s ball handler / forward progression, then it’s obvious that Deron Williams is a very solid defender.

Together they comprise a physical, long defensive backcourt. Brewer is 6’7 with the previously mentioned 6’11 wingspan and the quickness of a man much smaller than he. Deron is a 6’3 point guard who was a wrestler in high school and deceptively quick. (check out his draft combine scores, you’ll be surprised) If anything, I think that they are better on defense than they are on offense!

What do the Stats Say:

I’m a stats junkie. So this is important to me. Also, I guess I’m debuting my new stats format. If you want to know about what some of these things are, you can always read my treatise on my own created stats. If you don’t want to, just wait for the analysis that will appear below.

Deron Williams	Ronnie Brewer

First of all, for those of you following along at home, I have changed the GO Rating, and expect a new post about the New formula shortly. What you need to know about it is what these scores mean. The GO Rating incorporates all possible statistically tracked outcomes on offense, hence the full name of “Gestalt Offense”. The GO Rating is in light blue, all the things in the light blue cell background are my own invented stats. I think they better round out what you see. Anyway . . . what is a good GO Rating? I depends on what you are looking for. If you are a point guard it’s hard to be upset if you get a rating in the 130’s. Magic Johnson’s regular season career totals calculate to a GO Rating of 138.784. Allen Iverson’s GO Rating for the same category (career regular season stats) is 134.883. Deron gets 135.701 for his work last season – though shortened by injury, arguably his best season ever. As a further point of reference, Gary Payton’s career GO Rating is 88.882, that’s almost 50 points lower than Deron. Brewer’s rating is much lower, but that’s due to a few major factors. Firstly, wing players who do not take many shots (see shooting frequency, the higher the number the more time it takes to get a shot off) hardly ever do well. Scottie Pippen’s GO Rating for his career regular season stats stands at only 71.431. As solid as Pip was offensively, Brewer is nearly there in his 3rd season in the NBA. That’s not too shabby.

Again, the stats don’t lie when they show how poorly they are as a team when it comes to three point shooting. They make up for it with stellar eField Goal percentages (which I think are more important than just FG% and 3PT%). They both shoot better than average, when it comes to their shooting worth (average being 1.2). Offensively they are very competent getting to the line a combined 10 times a game and averaging over 30 points between the two, while dishing the ball with a good Assists to Turn over ratio. Offensively they put up quite solid stats, and I feel like they are even better defensively. Of course, defensive stats are pretty much useless, so take these with a grain of salt. (if you want more on that rant, read my treatise, linked above)

These guys don’t usually get called for fouls, so that’s pretty good. What is even better is that both of them come out on the positive side of their defensive gambling – Brewer especially makes very smart gambles on defense: effectively getting 2 steals for each fouls he commits. If he was to gamble defensively at that rate he would foul out with nearly 8 steals a game. (For those watching him closely know that he got 6 steals in a recent USA Select team scrimmage) Deron still manages over a steal per game as well, and his primary duty is to man up on his guy, and not actually go for steals. Neither of them block worth a damn – though Brewer should get more in my opinion. Both of their pure hustle ratings clearly fall below that of the Dream Team members, but exist within an acceptable range for starters in today’s NBA. These defensive statistics are not overwhelming – but I don’t put much stock in defensive stats at all. The best defense causes no effect on an individual’s boxscore; if you defend a guy so well that he takes shot he can’t make then you get nothing, except the satisfaction of playing good defense. These two guys are good defensive players – but Brewer gambles more and gets more steals – and it shows.

Conclusion:

Some statistics are worth more than others, and I’d put my money on the offensive ones actually relating to actually being good at playing. That said, Deron and Ronnie are a better defensive tandem than offensively, where their weaknesses are more exposed. (Weaknesses being that neither of them shot over 35% from three last year; as a unit they do not produce much from deep per game; they both do not jack up shots frequently (jacking up shots gives you a better Shooting Frequency and GO Rating for some reason); and so forth) Other guard tandems will score more points per game, and probably get to the free throw line more times per game. There will always be a better offensive tandem around. Collectively Ronnie and Deron make up a better defensive force, and have the talent and ability to get better (they are both closer to 20 than 30 – guys like Kobe, Fish, Vince, Nash, J-Kidd and others are getting up there and aren’t going to be as good in the next few seasons). They can be a Top 5 starting backcourt in the NBA, but they just aren’t quite there yet. I agree with DeFeo’s rankings and thank him for posting this in the first place!

P.S. Thanks to J.E.Skeets for the Ball Don’t Lie link directing me to DeFeo’s post!

Game 4 Recap: Utah 103, Portland 96

Game at a Glance:

The young and inexperienced Portland Trailblazers own a number of double digit leads over the Jazz in Salt Lake City, but are unable to close the deal as the Jazz (again without veterans Deron Williams and Matt Harpring) come from behind in the 4th quarter to win it -- the classic battle of experience and poise against youth and enthusiasm. Somehow this game reminded me of a game between the 1998 Jazz and the 1998 Spurs -- the Jazz won the battles back then, but you can see the potential for Portland to eventually win the war (they have a lot of potentially awesome young players), just as the Spurs clearly have. Portland fans don't have much to be upset with here (I fail to see why they are so down -- read their reactions here, here and here); they almost won a huge game against a division rival on the road -- without having their best player play their best game. Brandon Roy had 18 points (6-16 fg, 0-2 3pt), 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal -- if you guys pull off upsets without Roy scoring 20 you should be happy. And that's almost exactly what happened last night.

[ ESPN's Boxscore -- NBA.com's Highlights ]

Jazz Quartet -- Top Four Players of the Game:

Andrei Kirilenko	Brevin Knight	Mehmet Okur	Carlos Boozer
Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty	Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty	Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty	Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty
Like every game this season, in the 4th quarter he's shut down the other team's best offensive player. He also finished with 17 points (5-8 fg), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, and countless drawn fouls against Portland early in the 4th to put them in the penalty. AK-47 went 7-8 from the FT line to boot.	Maybe he gets more credit than he deserves, or maybe he gets less -- it doesn't matter, we don't win this game without his steadying influence and ability to be a disruptive force on defense. Brev finished with 6 points (3-4 from the floor), 6 assists, 3 steals and a board. Moreover, he ran the team and helped us get back from being down 11.	If it wasn't for his end of the shot clock magic in the 1st half, the Jazz go down by 20 instead of just 11 in this game. Okur is finally hitting some outside shots, and had a team high 22 points, and was 1 rebound away from a double double. (And a 20-10 game) He drew the defense to him, and allowed the Jazz to get offensive rebounds and post up wings in the 4th.	Like Memo, Boozer was just short of a double double and 20-10 game, he finished with 20 and 8. He was not as aggressive as I wanted him to be, and he took a lot more fading jumpers than he should have -- but with the game hanging in the balance he scored inside on a layup with less than 30 seconds left and made all of his free throws -- he had several key rebounds as well.

Hon. Mention:

Ronnie Brewer -- Brewer had 16 points (6-12 shooting, 1-1 from three, 3-3 from the FT line), 6 rebounds and 2 assists . . . and was instrumental for the win (that three was huge), but when it counted Brandon Roy was scoring on him / getting by him with ease. On the other hand, Brevin was much more active on defense and was big on both ends of the floor. If it was Jazz Quintet then Ronnie Brewer would have been there, but then I would end up feeling bad at some other game down the line where 6 guys for our club did something good, and lament about it not being a Jazz sextet, and that's just dumb, and potentially not work safe. I gotta draw the line somewhere, and Ronnie will have plenty of opportunities to make it down the line. He had a great game, and helped us on offense when we were making our run, and had some nice dunks -- but even more impressive where his confident outside jumpers in the 3th.

Digging Deeper:

I'm happy that we got this win, and I felt as though doing so without Deron was a distinct possibility. (Scroll down to week 3) That said, I tend to agree with Hammy over at True Blue Jazz -- this game was a European Rookie's open three point attempt away from being all tied up with 20 seconds to go -- we really could have used Deron's offense tonight. The good news is that we didn't need him, we won the game, and we're a game against the Thunder away from going 3 weeks without Deron Williams -- and haven't lost yet. The better news is that our bench is winning games for us. We've had a good bench for a few seasons now -- last year he did pretty okay (save for the playoffs) with Ronnie Price, Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring and Paul Millsap. (And CJ for emergencies)

This season we have Brevin Knight, Kyle Korver, Andrei Kirilenko and Paul Millsap -- this has been the line up that gets the Jazz on runs where we claw back into games, or go on and distance ourselves from the other team, with. Those four guys average 39.6 ppg (Only Korver is shooting under 46 fg% in that group at 43%), 18.3 rpg, 10.9 apg and 5.25 spg. Oh yeah, and those four guys get to the line an average of 12.9 times per game. Not too shabby for the first 4 guys off your bench.

Portland is a good team, and I'm happy that we beat them. They have a few guys injured right now -- though I think that losing Deron (not to mention a valuable bench guy in Harpring) is worse than losing Oden (who you guys didn't need to beat us 3 times last year) and Webster. I think that Outlaw, Batum and Fernandez gives Portland some of the best young wings out there -- and that's not even counting Brandon Roy. Aldridge has a very effective offensive game (inside and out), but seriously . . . 2 boards? Total? Kyle Korver out-rebounded LaMarcus. This is just something the Blazer fans should not tolerate. Especially when guys like Batum crash the boards and get 6 for their effort (no need to even mention Przybilla who was a one man wrecking crew in the paint with 7 points, 16 boards and a million blocks). Portland harried the Jazz into 16 turn overs (so many in the 1st and 2nd quarter alone) and were on their way to a solid road win. I wouldn't be surprised to see the season series end in a split, or even 3-1 in favor of the Blazers if this first game is any indication. How often are the Jazz going to go 21 for 22 at the free throw line in a game? We needed every one of those to get back into this game and secure the win.

The under-appreciated positive is that Jerry Sloan is making some really good changes to the rotation depending on the situations of the game. And older version of Sloan would keep pounding away at the square peg and try to make it fit in a round hole (which results in a loss) -- but he was confident enough in our roster's make up (props to GM Kevin O'Connor) that he could keep switching people in and out to work for advantages. Need defense? Plug in Knight. Portland bringing the zone? Put in Okur and Korver. Is Przybilla out of the game? Put in Boozer and Millsap to score inside. As Siler points out, it worked out for us in this game. Hopefully Sloan will keep doing this all season long.

Next Game: Friday November 7th, 2008 -- Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz [9:00 PM EST]

Things to look for this season: Deron Williams

I saved the best for last -- Deron Williams really is the best player on this Jazz team right now. It's his team, and everyone from the Jazz Brass to the most clueless fan knows that he's the face of the franchise. Most pre-season pundits have suggested that the Jazz will go only as far as Deron will take them. Duh! That's like saying the most obvious of proclamations . . . like Charles Barkley more than sufficiently nourished, or that Governor Sarah Palin is "Folksy". Right now Deron is on the shelf, but even if he misses an incomprehensible 6 weeks it's not going to hurt our team. When he comes back I fully expect him to continue his ascent up into the upper echelon of players in the league right now. He may never get the free reign to do everything that Chris Paul does -- but Chris Paul will never shoot as well, and so far, Chris Paul has a lot of catching up to do in this whole "winning" department. I don't need to say much else about our All-NBA team member and Gold medal winner, so, what three things should we look for this season from Deron Williams?

1. Come back strong from his injury: Modern sports medicine is such that players now return from injuries stronger than they were before them. This is especially going to be true in the case of Deron Williams and his minor ankle sprain. Why? More than anything else, I don't think we've ever such seen a demonstratively competitive player on our roster before. Stockton wanted to win, but rarely showed it. On the other hand, Malone was always intense and wanted to win, but he worked so hard in everything was there anything left at the end of the season I wonder? AK wants to win, but only leads through his play. Boozer is very demonstrative, but what do we really know about his desires for winning? Deron Williams flat out has the will to win. Larry H. Miller said that Deron is so fixated on any slight (real or imagined) that his entire concept of winning only exists if someone else LOSES at his expense. He doesn't want to win for the sake of winning. He wants to win for the sake of beating you. Babyfaced Chris Paul may win games, but Deron Williams wants to murder people on the court. That probably explains their head to head record against each other since college . . .
2. Make the All-Star Team: Brandon Roy is a great player, he managed to hit two shots in a row last night after his team was down by 20. Brandon Roy was an All-Star last season. Maybe he will be this season as well, but one thing for sure, nothing is going to keep Deron Williams off the All-Star team this season. How can you be on an All-NBA Team, represent Team USA in the Olympics -- and NOT be an All-Star? Western Conference coaches found a way to do that last season. Deron Williams' play has made them all learn their lesson.
3. Lead the Jazz to the promised land: Okay, this may be a little 'homer'-rific (definition #6 on that list), but I think that our team is really good this year. We're not perfect, and there are some serious holes that need to be fixed (somehow). We also will have to play against the best teams in the NBA that are not clad in shamrocks to win the West. It looks hard, but this is the most talented team from 1 to 15 that we've ever had. Our team is lead by Deron Williams, and flanked by three other All-Stars. We should be able to sleepwalk our way to 8 playoff wins this season. (Unless we face the Lakers in the 2nd round again, grrrr)

Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)

Things to look for this season: Ronnie Brewer

For those who don't know, Ronnie Brewer is the son of former NBA Player Ron Brewer (Sr.); and currently is the starting shooting guard for the Utah Jazz. Ronnie is a special type of player who was touted in college to be able to play the 1, 2 and 3 on the pro level. So far -- in my obviously unprofessional assessment -- he's basically an NBA three with limited range. Or at least, that's what he has so far shown as a member of the Jazz. Now, before you all accuse me of suggesting that Brewer is nothing more (or less) than an athletic, young dunker in the mold of David Benoit or Blue Edwards let me finish.

The Heir	The Air	The flair

In the Jazz system he is a finisher on offense who is not called upon to really do to much playmaking (unlike Jeff Hornacek who got his fair share of assists playing the 2 in Utah), and his outside shot is decidedly 'shaky' right now. Ronnie does have three point range, but let's be honest, the other team would rather leave him open at the three point line than suffer a worse fate by allowing Deron to drive into the lane, or leaving Memo open from three.

He is very young and athletic and still learning the NBA game. Right now in the Jazz system he can be masked and be plugged into the shooting guard role; though I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't mind having a bit more distance shooting to compliment Brewer's flat out insane FG% -- last season it was only 55.8%. There are two reasons why his FG% is so high: he doesn't trouble himself with jacking shots out of his comfort zone and he makes the shots that he takes; and secondly, he doesn't shoot it from that far (59 total career three point shots attempted). Really, this is because he has a career three point shooting % of a sub-Harpringian 18.6%.

As far as starting shooting guards go, that's not that great. (Which is probably why I call his play so far in his career as that of a Small Forward in that Josh Howard mold . . . a slasher who is great around the basket and need to work to keep defenses honest from the outside) I'd love for him to become a 30% shooter from downtown, but I do not anticipate that from happening. He's never going to be a bomber from deep like Kyle Korver is. On the flip side, Kover is never going to go out and dunk on people, or you know, challenge shots.

Josh Howard is what some draft sites appraised Brewer to be like as a pro.	Korver is a great shooter,	though he's not great at everything that the Jazz need.

What are the three key things that we have to look out for this season from Ronnie Brewer?

1. More consistent Outside shot: It really is the 3,000 lb. mastodon in the room . . . in order for Ronnie to really earn more playing time in the fourth quarter he has to be able to maintain the good floor spacing that the Jazz need on offense. Right now Jerry Sloan finishes with Deron, Carlos, Andrei and Memo because they all are pretty diverse -- and he adds in Kyle Korver, who is a dead eye shooter from the line and from three. Brewer is a much better defender than Korver, but the current relative difference between Kyle and Ronnie's defense is smaller than the large gap between their relative offensive abilities. (55.8 fg% notwithstanding) That percentage is highly elevated due to where he gets those shots from -- shots that fail to exist in the 4th quarter for shooting guards.
2. Has to do more on offense than just dunk the ball: Essentially, for Brewer to get more than his 24 - 27 mpg he is going to have to bring a bit more variety on offense. So far his ball handling has been under-whelming. He was supposed to be a 1/2/3 coming out of college, yet I've only seen him make the most obvious decisions on offense when passing the ball to the open guy for the dunk. Hornacek and Stockton worked so well together because on the fly they could really alternate from passer to scorer. Ronnie appears to be the best passer out of the bunch of C.J., Kyle, Morris and himself, for what it is worth though. Once he gets more familiarity with the starters I'm sure Ronnie will end up getting more assists, but it's something he has to work on. He is supposed to be able to move with the ball, and create for others. So far I've only seen him score around the basket and hit an occasional set shot -- basically scoring in the exact same ways that Adam Keefe used to make baskets. Getting better from the outside will better allow him the space he needs to drive, though, so both problems are related to each other. Right now guys just sag off of him, and dare him to shoot it. Furthermore, he has to score the ball off of more than just dunks and lay-ups -- even if this means his shooting percentage will go down. The utility of this is that other teams have to defend him all over the court, and not just in the paint.
3. Better man to man defense: He's tall, he has a 6'11 wingspan, and he's fast. He anticipates passing lanes well, and is able to go north-south and east-west very quickly. He has the physical tools, but there's more to playing defense than just being there. (Otherwise Ostertag would have a few rings by now) If he can improve his man-to-man defense then marginal "stars" like Brandon Roy won't go off on the Jazz, and our team will get some more wins. There's nothing that suggests that he can't be a better defender . . . but at the end of last season on key possessions our amazing help defender (Andrei Kirilenko) had to be put on the other teams' best scorer -- which was successful only against guys not named Kobe. If Ronnie can be mentally able to check these guys without fouling, getting his confidence killed, or just being useless then Andrei can remain a free safety on defense getting deflections, double teaming and blocking shots. (Until we have a shot blocking bigman, we're going to need Andrei playing defense like that for us to be any good)

If you look at the huge jump Brewer made from his Rookie season to his 2nd Rookie season (i.e. last season when he finally got some time to play) you can assume that he's not done developing as a player just yet. I have high hopes for him, though I really wonder about where the playing time he needs is going to come from. After all, the Jazz aren't planing on paying C.J. Miles $15 million dollars just to hang out and give people high fives. Ronnie is no fool, though, and he knows that just because he is the incumbent starter does not mean that he's going to just be given that role next season. It's pretty obvious that he has to improve his outside shot, which will open up the other parts of his offensive game, and I'm sure that is something that he has focused on quite a bit this off-season. [For the record, Korver, Almond and C.J. all have picture perfect shooting strokes and have great range.]

Ronnie gets drafted, and people talk about his inability to really be a shooter . . . it's been 2 seasons now, he has to Improve.

That said, Ronnie is a very special player who has a great chance to help our team get to the next level. He's fast, he's athletic -- but we need to see three things from him this season otherwise we may just have to start dedicating a lot of our time towards making C.J. stronger or Morris Almond faster instead of holding our breath for Brewer to start shooting well.