Showing posts with label Yaroslav Korolev. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yaroslav Korolev. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Statistical Breakdown of the RMR

This year the Jazz had only three players on their Utah Jazz roster who participated in the Rocky Mountain review: shooting guard / shooting forward (as opposed to small forward) Morris Almond, 50% prospect/50% project center Kyrylo Fesenko, and 19 year old Rookie Kosta Koufos. Our squad also featured a former NBA player in Yaroslav Korolev (a lotto pick by the LA Clippers). Following that we had two guys who had games of destiny during the 6 game review (Kevin Lyde and Tyrone Brazelton). Lastly, solid, but unspectacular back-up power forward Hiram Fuller had some good moments over the period of the Rocky Mountain Review. That said: here are their per game averages! (These may differ from the NBA.com website slightly because their stats are for up to game 4, where these include all 6 game stats)

Player Pos. Mpg Ppg FGM-FGA FG% FTM-FTA FT% 3PTM-3PTA 3TP% Off. Rpg Tot. Rpg Apg Spg Bpg TOpg PFpg
M.Almond SG/ SF 28 18.5 5.8-13.0 44.9 6.2-7.7 80.4 0.7-2.0 33.3 1.0 2.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 2.2 2.0
K.Koufos C/ PF 19 8.7 2.7-7.0 38.1 3.3-3.7 90.9 0.0-0.0 0.0 2.0 5.7 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.2 2.3
T.Brazelton PG 15 7.5 3.0-6.3 48.0 1.0-1.0 100.0 0.0-1.0 0.0 0 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 1.5
Y.Korolev SF/ SG 14 6.0 2.2-5.0 44.0 1.0-1.4 71.4 0.6-1.0 60.0 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.4 2.2
H.Fuller PF 16 5.0 1.8-5.0 36.7 1.3-2.0 66.7 0.0-0.0 0.0 2.2 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.5
K.Fesenko C 17.5 4.5 1.7-3.7 45.5 1.2-2.2 53.8 0.0-0.0 0.0 2.3 4.8 0.8 0.5 2.2 2.7 2.3
K.Lyde C 6.5 3.2 1.5-2.5 60.0 0.2-0.3 50.0 0-0 0.0 1.8 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.8

Morris Almond: As we can see, Morris Almond played the most minutes per game, took the most shots, and finished the review with a grand total of 3 assists. (Which looks exponentially worse when compared to his 78 total shots attempted) He also managed to pull down nearly 3 rebounds per game and almost 1 steal per game. His last three games of the review were much better than the first three -- averaging 22.3 ppg (47 fg%), 3.0 rpg, 0.67 apg, 1.0 spg and 1 made three a game. (All better than his Review averages) During that span he also went to the line 29 times (a shot under 10 FTA / game), which is exactly what we want to see. Statistically speaking he had a strong showing on the scoring side of the ball, he didn't get many assists -- but that doesn't mean he didn't evolve into a guy who can cognitively percieve that someone else on his team has a better shot than he does. During the first two games he would die with the rock instead of passing it off, but as early as the game against Iran (RMR Game 3) he was passing the ball up to guys who had open shots and good looks. Unfortunately they just didn't go down, and perhaps if Almond was playing with NBA level shooting talent he would garner more assists. After all, he's more likely to pass the ball to guys that can put the ball in the basket instead of guys who suck. His defensive stats were not that great, but that said, his defense did improve over the course of the Review. I think that if given the opportunity, put in a system where he's no greater than the 4th best player on the floor, and given the ball only when open, he can be a valuable NBA player -- not unlike Rip Hamilton.

Kosta Koufos: This rookie had some ups and down in this review, looking very shaky in the opening game, then having a double double in the next, then the next one finishing with only 4 points and 5 boards, and so forth. One of the main criticisms I have of his game (as supported by statistical evidence) has been that for a guy who was touted (before the NBA Draft) to have a strong offensive game (particularly shooting the ball) his FG% was horrible. He was a killer at the Free Throw line (leading the team with a 90.9%), but from the field he shot only 38.1%. That is really bad. That's Kenny Anderson bad. What is worse is that he continued to shoot the ball at a very high rate: 42 total shots, 96:40 total minutes played -- that's 1 shot ever 2.3 minutes on the floor. For a point of reference, Carlos Boozer -- the focal point of our offense who scores over 21 ppg @ nearly 55% -- gets 1 shot every 2.2 minutes on the floor. What's the difference? Six (6) whole fucking seconds!!! Seriously dude, pass the ball a little bit, huh? After the first three games I felt like Kosta's stats were an inflated sham, as he would end up making a shot off of the work of someone else, while missing all of his shots that were created by himself (post ups, jumpers). Furthermore, his rebounding stats would get bumped up each game by a sequence where he'd tip the ball to himself, or get a cheap tip-in. He did lead the team in RPG with 5.7, and did solid work on the defensive glass -- thanks to the solid defense of Fesenko who changed many a shot that ricocheted right to the Big Greek. In the last three games Kosta played much better, shooting 47.6 fg%, being a consistent offensive force (10.3 ppg) who also made a solid effort on defense (5.0 rpg, 1.67 bpg). I was amazed at how poorly he shot (1-3, 3-11, 2-7, 3-8, 3-6, 4-7), and may have been a little biased against him, but I think that his performance indicates that down the line (2-3 seasons) he'll be a solid NBA player.

Kyrylo Fesenko: Everyone on planet earth hates this guy -- and I fail to see why. The Utah Jazz have a glaring hole when it comes to interior defense. Fesenko is a 7'1 beast who weighs over 300 pounds and is agile and strong like a Siberian tiger. He is a limited player who does not try to do anything crazy. (1 shot ever 3.8 mins on the floor) The only things he is good at is playing interior defense on guys without fouling them (or letting them score easily); changing countless shots during the course of the game; and being a big enough of a force to send back over 2+ bpg. How is this not precisely what the Jazz need for a guy to come off the bench, run around, hit people, and play big for 10-12 mpg? The major criticism of him is that he has a questionable work ethic (based upon unsubstantiated rumormongering by media members who are not privy to jazz practices, and opinion by possibly jilted ex-coaches), and that he has 'regressed'. I just don't know how true that is, unless you had unreasonable expectations for him. Compared to how he performed in last seasons RMR (2007-2008 stats can be found here), some early conclusions can be made.

  MPG PPG FG% FT% Off. RPG Total RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PFPG BPG / PFPG
2007 16.3 4.8 58.8 45.0 1.3 4.3 1.0 0.5 1.3 1.7 3.8 0.342
2008 17.5 4.5 45.5 53.8 2.3 4.8 0.8 0.5 2.2 2.7 2.3 0.956
Diff +1.2 -0.3 -13.3 +8.8 +1.0 +0.5 -0.2 +0.0 +0.8 +1.0 -1.5 +0.617

The first thing that jumps out at you is his offensive production. He's scoring at a much lower % from the field, and even though he is playing 1.2 more mpg, his over-all scoring is down. (not shown: he's getting to the line 1.2 times less per game as well) To me these all indicate that he's not playing with a good point guard. Last season the Jazz were run by Dee Brown and Brian Chase -- two guys much better than who we had running things this season. A PG is able to get his big man good shots. No point guard = no easy shots. While Fes' FG% looks horrible, do keep in mind that if you eliminate his last game (arguably his worst), his FG% for the tournament was 64.2%! His FT% went up markedly, by nearly 10% -- which shows that he put the time in and improved that. Over all, though, his offensive stats were much less than what some people expected of him. It's probably a good thing that we're not needing another scorer on the team -- especially not from our back-up center.

On the defensive side of things everything went up, expect for steals (which stayed the same -- but how many more spg do you expect from +1.2 mpg?). He boarded more, and probably would have had more if he wasn't the primary defender for: bigmen, anyone driving, and people taking any shots in the paint. (He would have to run out to challenge shots, preventing him from getting easy boards) Two big facts happen to be that he fouled a lot less, while playing more minutes, and his blocks went up. What does this mean? That his block to foul metric is much better than it was.

Last season he accrued only 0.342 blocks : 1 foul -- which means that he'd have to foul 3 times in the span it would take him to get 1 block. This season it was a completely different story, as he was getting nearly as many blocks (13 total) as he did fouls (14 total). This is an improvement of +0.617, which is pretty huge. What is this metric all about? Well, David Robinson (a pretty good blocks guy in his career) blocked 2954 shots in his life, and fouled 2835 times. This gives him a score of +1.042. By comparison, this RMR Fes' score was +0.956. David's score is for 34.7 mpg, while Fes' score is for 17.5 mpg.

34.7 / 17.5 = 1.983. If you take that modifier and enhance Fes' stats by it you get a kid who with that kind of playing time is capable of blocking over 4 shots a game without fouling out. You know, something that is ridiculously Mark Eaton-esque. Do the statistics indicate that Fesenko has regressed from last season? Absolutely not. Therefore, idiots who look at differential stats and not inferential stats should shut the hell up. Additionally, for anyone that cares to look at who's better (Fes or Kosta), one is clearly a better offensive weapon. The other is a much better interior defender -- and my metric supports this:

Fesenko (0.956 blocks/fouls) > Koufos (0.428 blocks/fouls)

RMR Game 5 & 6: Wins and Losses

Almond swoops in for 2 vs. the Mavs The Jazz Coaches conspire to keep their best players on the Bench Kosta Koufos made a average first impression  Fesenko struggled with almost everything save for blocks
Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images

The Rocky Mountain Review has finished for yet another off-season, and all had a good time. Well, some had a better time than others. The Jazz finished 3-3 after beating the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5, and then losing to the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6. The true winner in these types of things are the fans, who get a chance to see the stars of tomorrow -- today! (or something to that effect) Over-all the Jazz played their regular style of RMR, where wins and losses are ancillary towards playing 16 people every game and not giving your younger prospects any real chance to get better.

"Given the Jazz's investment in Fesenko, there's no way he should only be playing 13 minutes in a summer-league game. These are opportunities for game experience that won't be there come November and probably won't be there in October, either.

It's also difficult for the Jazz to criticize C.J. Miles for skipping the Revue when Fesenko is playing so little. If it's so important to the development of their young players, then the Jazz's young players need to be playing 25-plus minutes right now." (Siler, 2008, The Salt Lake Tribune)

That, however, is a tangent. First the games! (and their long overdue reports!)

Game 5: Utah 83 - Atlanta 78

  1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
Utah 20 18 25 23 83
Atlanta 14 21 26 21 78

The Jazz avenge their Game 2 loss (Atlanta 72 - Utah 63) in a game where the Hawks played their bench guys much more than previously in the review, essentially handing this game to the Jazz. Coach Corbin only played 9 bench guys for this game, and Kosta Koufos actually came off the bench to play 21:48 of game time. (Fesenko only played 12:48, but hey, no one on the Jazz bench seems to have a good reason for that, so we'll stop talking about it.) While this game did not have the spectacle of the game vs. Iran, or the sense of dire urgency as the New Jersey game, this game was entertaining enough for the fans of the home team. The Hawks were pretty much a four man wrecking crew of Acie Law IV (21 points, 5 assists), Thomas Gardner (11 points, three rebounds), Olumide Oyedeji (9 points, 7 rebounds), and the dangerous Luke Jackson (16 points, 4 assists). Only Law started for the Hawks, and played over 30 mins.

On the Jazz side of things it continues to be the Morris Almond show (29 points, 50+ fg%, 3 rebounds) and whomever happens to be on the floor with him. Almond and Law both went 8/10 from the FT line and were attacking relentlessly. Almond suggests that it was the 4th game of the review, and hints as though he has to play his game, furthermore,

"My game is not going to change over night," (Almond, 2008, NBA.com)

This is obvious, as in this system and with his quality of team mates he's not going to ever become a distributor. Ultimately, the Jazz would win ZERO games if Mobe doesn't end up taking the most shots for the team. Sure, he's not 'getting his team mates involved' (according to the guys on the Internet), but I've seen him pass the ball countless times to guys who botch the play and rob him of assists.

Game 6: Utah 70 - Dallas 82

  1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
Utah 18 9 19 24 70
Dallas 24 21 21 16 82

The Jazz break their three game winning streak by getting rounded up by the Dallas Mavs in, pretty much, the ugliest possible way. Despite winning the points in the paint 44 to 26, *and* winning 2nd chance points 16 to 4 the Jazz still managed to dig themselves into a 20 point hole after three. How? It's pretty easy when you go 26 for 73 (35.6 fg%) as a team, and 1 for 12 (8.3 pt%) from deep. Morris Almond and Kosta Koufos (both starter this game) finished the game with 14 points a piece. While Fesenko played almost 10 more minutes than last game (this time coming off the bench), he only finished with 4 points off of really poor shooting (2 for 8) which ended up destroying his fg% for this tournament. (from 57 fg% down to 45.5 fg%) The only good thing from this game is that Morris Almond showed us that he can do more, getting a couple of assists and locking determinedly locking down Gerald Green into an 11 point (3 for 11) night. Kosta has his best shooting game and played quite well. (4 for 7 shooting, 6 for 7 at the free throw line, 2 blocks, 2 steals and 1 assist) Contrasting that, Fesenko put up one of his most frustrating games, and emphatically finished the night with an impressing dunk to end an unimpressive Rocky Mountain Review for the Ukrainian giant. To add insult to injury, not only does this last game resonate loudest in our memories, but with Kosta's good play, and Kyrylo's poor play, the big Greek finished the tournament with some better looking numbers.

W5 (5 factors that influenced the last two games):

  • Who: Morris Almond -- He's the only guy on the team who has played close to 30 minutes every game, and the only guy who shoots the ball more than 10 times every game -- no wonder he's our scoring leader!
  • What: Improvement -- This is something (outside of Almond's better all-around game in the loss to Dallas) that no one has shown except for the 19 year old Rookie Kosta Koufos. He has had his ups and downs, but he really came on strong in the last two games (averages of approximately 12 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 54 fg%, in 22 mpg).
  • Where: The Three Point Line -- No wonder our team had to score in the paint and at the line so frequently? The Jazz team went 2 for 20 over the last two games from deep. 
  • Why: Talent Level -- This year's Rocky Mountain Review team was one of the least talented squads in recent memory. The three best players on this team were two late 1st round picks and and mid 2nd rounder. Back on the 2006-2007 Rocky Mountain Review our team had Deron Williams (starter, All-NBA 2nd team, Olympian), Ronnie Brewer (starter), Paul Millsap (could start on our team), C.J. Miles (has started for our team, just signed his 2nd NBA contract), Dee Brown (The Cousy Award winner in his Senior year of NCAA ball) and Rafael Araujo (a Top 10 lottery pick). How this team won 3 games amazes me, and probably is just a testament of Morris Almond's raw scoring ability.
  • How: Internal Development -- Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor has pretty much made the roster pretty solid, and lots of talented guys probably don't want to try out for the Jazz summer league team. Probably this is because the Jazz have 15 guys under contract (now...) and most of the young guys have been developed internally -- leaving little incentive to try out for the senior team. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see guys like Lyde, Paulding, Korolev, Fuller and Brazelton be asked to come back in October.

    Stats!

    More on this in the next post!

    What's next? Veteran's Camp in October!

  • Wednesday, July 23, 2008

    RMR Game 3 & 4: Wins vs Iran and Nets

    Ty takes it in for 2 in the 4th quarter! Kofous . . . with the SHOT . . . again! (1 shot every 2.4 mins) Almond throws it down with surprising Athleticism Fess blocks shots, changes others and defends the basket -- while getting a 1:1 block / foul ratio. That's Huuuge!
    Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/ NBAE via Getty Images Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/ NBAE via Getty Images Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/ NBAE via Getty Images Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/ NBAE via Getty Images

    The Jazz Rocky Mountain Review squad won these last two games coming from behind both times. Is this because the starters for the Jazz are that much worse than the other guys? I don't really know. The Iran game was filled with a very great, festive atmosphere that is more akin to other International sporting events than a summer league game. I was surprised at the strong showing by Iranian fans, and had no clue that there were so many Persians in Utah . . . then again, they are pretty much an invisible minority.

    Their national team really brought it strong early, and had hot shooting to thank for. They were much quicker than the Jazz and their starting center (Hamed Ehadadi) was straight up 'housing' anyone that defended him. Eventually Fesenko got fed up and had to start blocking his shot. Thankfully he was not a major concern for the Jazz in the 2nd half as Morris Almond injured him in the 2nd quarter. USA! USA! USA!

    The game was a celebration of sport, and the Jazz fans (usually called mean names by players of other teams) were very classy and the Iranians threw roses into the crowd after the game. Somewhere dark and evil, David Stern smiled -- the seeds for a globalized NBA were being planted that evening in Utah.

      1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
    Utah 14 24 23 21 82
    Iran 22 7 16 12 57

    As for the other game, the game last night vs. the New Jersey Nets was very entertaining -- but mostly for basketball reasons. Early on Jaycee Carroll (who has some Utah roots) was playing like Leon in Above the Rim, just shooting everything and being unstoppable. Thankfully, Carroll has no defense to speak of, and when it counted our guards Tyrone Brazelton and Morris Almond were just too much for the one man show. The Jazz were down by 14 but scraped their way back and won it thanks to the stellar play of Brazelton, Rickey Paulding and others. The Nets have a lot of talent on their squad (at least on paper), but Brook Lopez (#10 draft pick, 2008), Sean Williams (#17 draft pick, 2007), Chris Douglas-Roberts (1st rounder on some mock drafts, 2008) and crew did not do much.

      1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
    Utah 13 22 27 25 87
    New Jersey 22 23 18 16 79

    The game was tight in the 4th quarter, and the Jazz were able to pull it out, winning by 8.

    W5 (5 factors that influenced the two wins):

    • Who: Morris Almond -- he has been the only guy on the team that has shown that he has a solid future as an NBA player, this may be his last off-season playing Summer League
    • What: Game of Destiny -- the Game of Destiny is basically the best a player will ever play, it's a single game that vastly outstrips their true playing ability. It's a maximal score, and not a typical one . . . it's a Game of Destiny. Kevin Lyde had one against Iran (6 pts, 14 rbs, 2 ast., 1 stl.), and Tyrone Brazelton had one against the Nets (16 pts, 7-9 shooting, 4 ast., 1 stl. -- all the money baskets down the stretch going 1 vs. 5)
    • Where: The Paint -- over the last two games the Jazz have gone for 34 and 32 points here, and that accounts for 40% of the scoring. Is this a high number or a low number? It's the largest slice of the pie (FT is 25% of our points the last two games, and 35% have been points outside of the paint), and as a result, the only place this team is consistently scoring in.
    • Why: The Playbook -- The coaches Ty Corbin and Scott Layden are reading directly from the script that Jerry Sloan, Phil Johnson and the rest of the Jazz Brass hand down to them. Every play attempts to dump the ball inside and go from there. This has been effective with Fess (1st play or so of the game he backed in on Lopez and scored on him), but less so with other guys. The desire is to get points in the paint, and not take jumpers. Part of this is the playbook, the other part is the talent level. This isn't a RMR team that includes Deron Williams, CJ Miles and other shooters . . . the only real NBA player right now is Almond, and his 17 ppg cannot off set the fact that no one else is really an outside threat. (Save, perhaps, Korolev or Paulding)
    • How: Bench Play -- 13 guys have played in at least 3 games (out of 4 so far) for the Jazz, and they continue to go deep into the bench every game. This makes some guys have less than stellar stats, but the talent level drop off does not appear to be so huge -- and when the other team's bench comes into the game against ours, the Jazz bench goes on a run or two. If it was not for them, the Jazz would be 0 - 4 right now.

    Stats!

    Here is the official boxscore for the game vs. Iran, the game vs. the Nets, and the combined stats for the first four games (scroll to the last page on these sheets for the most updated info on the Jazz). I want to talk about the stats in a later post, so I won't get too into it. Quickly though, in the last two games: Almond has 34 points and 0 assists; Fesenko has 5 combined blocks and steals in 30 mins of action; Kosta has gone 5 - 15 and continues to get lauded in the press for his solid play. He's 19, sure, but he's also trying to play in the NBA. Let's not bring age into it and talk performance.

    What's next? The Atlanta Hawks, RMR Gm. 4 on Thursday!

    Tuesday, July 22, 2008

    RMR Game 3: Initial post-game thoughts

    The jazz finally win a game, and defeat the mighty Persian empire . . . or something like that. It was a blowout, and it always looked like one. After the first quarter with their amazing fans cheering them, Iran looked like they were going to destroy the Jazz. Eventually their lack of familiarity with playing at that altitude; their lack of depth (after injuries); and their shooting that finally cooled off allowed for the Jazz to tell them, once and for all that . . .

    This . . . is . . . UTAH!

    Image created by me . . . so yeah . . . kinda silly, I know

    Yeah . . . something like that at least . . .

    I'd like to say that the Jazz 82 - 57 win over the Iranian national team was because of Morris Almond, Kyrylo Fesenko and Kosta Koufos . . . but it wasn't. It was pretty much Kevin Lyde's game of destiny. Hiram Fuller also had a solid game, and Kevin Kruger (of the NBA D-League Utah Flash) and Yaroslav Korolev had supporting games as well. The games that are coached by Ty Corbin feature many players, 15 total guys played tonight, Almond didn't even play 20 mins in this game. I'll post more later on about this game as more information is available.