Contract years, Developing Talent & Front Office Subterfuge

The work of a General Manager is easy to criticize, yet hard to fully quantify. Team owners are like dragons sleeping on their hoard of gold coins and other priceless treasures. Coaches want to build winning resumes. Players want to get paid. The GM has to be the go-between that gets all these parties (with differing motivations) on the same page. The GM has to get a coach the players he needs to win. The players want the promises they need before signing on the dotted line (salary, role, playing time, etc). And for the team owner, well, the GM has to placate this obstacle on a near daily basis and convince the owners not to devourer the GM on sight -- while suggesting that parting with part of their hoard (on the 1st and 15th of each month) is the smart thing to do.

At times the NBA can be distilled to purer components, of winning and losing, and of the honesty of the game. Yet, at other times the NBA can expand into a complex juggling act more akin to micromanagement in a strategy game, or a RTS click-fest. For players, the game is the game. It's simple in that way, and relies on skill, speed and quick reflexes -- a Video Game analogy would be the first person shooter. For coaches, it's series of complex decisions, not unlike the original turn based strategy game called "Chess". (you may have heard of it) The GM, though, has to delve into the previously mentioned RTS click-fest:

But instead, imagine dealing with salaries, egos, scouts, coaches, players and injuries . . . also less cannons, probably . . .

*Ahem* Back to the point . . . a GM's job is rarely done perfectly because of how difficult it tends to be. Some GM's are great talent evaluators (for example, there's Isiah Thomas, just look at the player's he has drafted in his career, most of them have been All-Stars or award winners in some regard: Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Marcus Camby, Damon Stoudamire, David Lee, and so on) but poor on other sides of their job description. Other GM's have good connections with other teams, and always seem to do business with them (look at Kevin O'Connor and all the deals he has made with Philly over the years). Some GM's are really good with managing money, while others are known for turning things around in short order. At the end of the day, though, the GM is a salesman. He is essentially selling his services to a consumer -- in this case the team owner. Part of sales is to buy low and sell high. Another part of sales is to be consciously deceptive in just what your wares are. That last part does not really apply fully to the GM - Team Owner relationship, but rather to the GM to GM relationship. Sometimes you get a lemon, but you have to pass it off as a safe family sedan. Other times you (as the GM) are working not against the team owner, the other GM's, but the actual assets -- the players and their agents.

You want to keep a good player on your team for the least amount of money it's going to take to keep him there. All Team Owners expect the GM to be able to do such a thing. This part of the job ties in directly with the buy low/sell high and deceptive doctrines. If the first step is acquiring a player (via a Trade, Free Agency or the Draft), then the next step is evaluating that player (though, we hope that some evaluations have taken place before the player is traded for/signed/drafted). The next logical step would be to give playing time to that player and develop him. The last step? Making a decision on that guy -- sign him again when his contract expires, trade him, or let him walk. Parts of the last step depend greatly on each of the previous steps.

• For example, say the team acquires player A. They evaluate him, see some things they like, some things he needs to improve on, and play him accordingly. He either gets better or worse. If he does well, he becomes more valuable to the team -- and more valuable as a player. His asking price may go up, and making the last step (in this case: deciding to keep him) harder to do. An example of this Jazz fans may be familiar with would be All-Star Mo Williams.
• Player B, on the other hand, does not appear to have much upside, does not make the most of his chances on the court, and is not in the future plans of the team. They can get rid of him in a variety of ways, the team's disinterest in retaining him opens up options for his removal. An example of this Jazz fans may be familiar with would be Kris Humphries.

It's not always this simple, though.

• What about Player C . . . the team that drafts him knows him best, and knows that there is hidden potential deep inside. If they go about normally giving him playing time, allow him to develop openly (instead of only during closed practices and workouts with the team), then other GM's may wish to pry him away. Even if the original team wishes to keep him, retaining him may become very difficult as the exposure led to quicker development, which led to a greater player value. This would be repeating the same mistake with Player A all over again. What if, instead, the team decides to develop him secretly, give him less exposure, drive his asking price down, remove interest other GMs would have in him, and basically, keep him on the "down low".

This is pretty much the only way to retain those people that you think *can* blow up (in a good way), without having to give them a lot of money to make them stay. Deron Williams deserves the contract he got. It's an expensive contract though. Some teams are forced to over-pay to retain their talent (don't need to look farther than a young, uninjured Andrei Kirilenko half a decade ago). In general, you want to avoid doing that. If anything, I think we can clearly place the curious case of C.J. Miles as an example of a Player C scenario.

At the end of C.J.'s first season he was getting more playing time, and in the last game of the season he played really well. How well? 23 points (8/13 fg, 2/5 3pt, 5/8 ft), 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal -- as a rookie with extend playing time playing against a tough Western Conference team. Every off-season since then there have been fishy things going on. He was a consistent no-show in future summer leagues, but instead opted to work on his game by himself. During times of injury he would be pressed into the starting line-up, only to return to the end of the bench only a few days later. C.J. should have played more than he did in when he was on his rookie contract. The clock struck 12 on C.J.'s contract though, and the Jazz simply put themselves in a situation to match whatever contract someone threw his way by virtue of him being a restricted free agent. No one really bit, not knowing what they would be getting . . . until Oklahoma City offered him a 4 year $15 million dollar contract. We all know how that story ended, as the Jazz eventually matched. Was $3.75 million per season too much for C.J. Miles? Perhaps . . . but at the same time, it's a lot less than it could have been had C.J. been playing like he is now at this time last season. (or perhaps, getting the playing time that he is getting now at this time last season) Back then I thought the Jazz were (in chronological order) a) not developing C.J. enough, b) using him only for spot duty, c) giving his playing time to guys who did not deserve it.

This season Ceejay has been everything from a solid deep threat, a versatile 2nd option on offense, to invisible . . . sometimes all in the same week. This is his 4th season in the league, and his first where he has averaged over 11.5 mpg. I'm sure he would be better, more seasoned player than he currently is if he was playing 20 mpg every season after his rookie campaign. I'm also pretty sure that he wouldn't be on the Jazz then. In effect, one could directly point to a systematic way in which the Jazz brass (Sloan and O'Connor mostly) lowered interest in a prospect, sequestered him from exposure (he only got one short stint in the NBA DL), yet did not develop him for fear of losing him. At the end of the day the Jazz have C.J., but not the C.J. he could be right now, and C.J. is not earning as much as he perhaps thought he would be after his rookie contract expired.

The Jazz financial situation is horrible right now. If it does not improve shortly than there may be a few more Player A type situations in the future with key contributors Paul Millsap and Ronnie Brewer. The Jazz would love to keep them for reasonable contracts, though their development (and production) have elicited quite a bit of exposure. Good for their bank accounts, perhaps not so great for the Jazz.

That's where the micromanagement comes back into play. You want your players to be good, productive and develop . . . but you do not want to lose them to other teams after you put in all the hard work to make them useful. Gilbert Arenas comes to mind, he was drafted, developed, and then left to get paid in free agency. Right now the Jazz are playing the "front office subterfuge game" with some other young players that could possibly be helping the Jazz right now.

Morris Almond: He is a scorer's scorer, who despite having limited quickness and has played defense only once in his life, could be doing a whole lot more for this Jazz team. He's looked horrible in his rookie season with the Jazz where he never got to be involved in the plays that the regular rotation run that get swingmen easy buckets. He didn't play a minute with Deron Williams last year, and was relegated to garbage time spot up shooting from the corner. Reason for not getting playing time: He's behind a few key guys on the depth chart and doesn't rebound or defend as well as others. For some reason this has prevented him from playing one single second in the NBA-DL this season. Something fishy: Why hasn't he played in the D-League at all this season then, if there's no space for him on our current roster? Do the Jazz know that he's a raw gem that only seems to look better when he gets to play?  Utah is healthy now, so there's no real risk to put him in the game at all . . . maybe practice with the Jazz is better than games with the Flash? Or maybe they don't want him to get too much exposure right now? Utah has opted not to extend his contract, so seemingly he is out . . . but maybe they are trying to keep his going rate low so that they *can* still have a shot at retaining him for a while. After all, they scouted him, interviewed him, drafted him, are developing him . . . Harpring's contract expires next year, and the Jazz will need a wing player who can come off that Harpring curl and hit the mid-range jumper. Financial situation aside, that sounds like something the Jazz have in their laps right now with Almond. Alas, this is exactly not the contract type of year a young player wants to have (being buried on the bench). Co-incidentally, this is exactly the type of contract year the Jazz would want him to have . . . after all, they did the same thing with Ceejay, they know what they are doing.

Kyrylo Fesenko: Very large man (7'1, 300+ lbs.) with the same wingspan and standing reach as Greg Oden -- yet uninjured and a capable passer and interior defender who has, due to injuries, been pressed into defending the likes of Yao Ming to Andrew Bynum . . . and done so well. Very likely that he is more talented than the guy ahead of him on the depth chart (Jarron Collins), but lacks experience, familiarity with the system and seasoning. Reason for not getting playing time: Work ethic and personality appear to anchor this man to the bench, though at some level talent and ability should trump that. Something fishy: As a rookie, this wet behind the ears, 2nd round draft pick center joined the Jazz and played in 70 games, and played over 20 mpg. This player joined a playoff team that was contending for a championship. This player had no experience with the Jazz system prior (as a rookie) and ended up getting playing time over a limited, soft center who had much more experience in the system. This young player was Jarron Collins. What, did you think I was talking about Fesenko? Heck no, Fesenko has played only 200 minutes with the Jazz in his 2 year career, let alone played in 70 (@ 20 per) as a rookie. Why is there such a disparity between Collins' and Fesenko's early careers? I don't know, but it seems kind of fishy to me. Even more fishy is that Fes only had one stint in the NBA-DL this season (8 games), promptly did exactly what we'd want him to do (be a defensive presence who rebounded, blocked and changed shots, shot a high percentage and eventually was averaging a double double) . . . and was called back and never played again. Ever. Hmmmm . . . he improves, shows that he's good at what he does . . . and can be a free agent this season . . . 'need to reel that big boy in, and hide him somewhere!' (which was the original plan with drafting a little known, poorly scouted player from a minor European league in the first place) More so than Almond, I think that Fesenko has a future with the Jazz, or at the very least, in the NBA somewhere as teams always want size, and if the guy is talented, he's going to get a contract somewhere. If you gave him the playing time, I'm pretty sure that he'd be able to get Rookie Millsap type of numbers for sure.

Paul Millsap: Speaking of the 'Sap, he got some great exposure this season. He produced as a starter due to injuries to Carlos Boozer. He's a free agent, and he's going to get paid this off-season. No doubt about it. Interestingly enough, at the first whiff of a hobbled, rusty Carlos Boozer the Jazz sent 'Sap back to the bench and as his fantasy owners know firsthand, 'Sap just hasn't been the same since. Reason for being sent to the bench: Boozer was the starter before he got injured, the Jazz/Sloan doctrine on this is that you cannot lose your starting job due to injury. Something fishy: No one said anything about a starting job, but just let Paul start the first 4-5 games after Boozer comes back and then let Boozer slowly work his way back into playing shape, and then give Boozer the starting spot. A lot of teams do this, they bring a starter back from injury on the bench just to test things out a bit. Out of all of my conspiracies, this is among the weakest -- though I don't see why the Jazz didn't keep starting Millsap for 4 games while Boozer (who was playing limited minutes) worked his way back into starting shape. For one thing, this almost looks like a directed attempt to reduce Millsap's exposure (for the open market). It's probably not, but it just looks fishy -- during a contract year, no less.

Kosta Koufos: Let's just say that if this 19 year old was playing Brook Lopez type of minutes on a bad team we'd see Brook Lopez-ish production out of Kosta. Yet, a guy who is clearly more talented than Collins, and is a very hard worker (much more than Fesenko has shown), is completely lost on this team. Kosta isn't on the active roster right now, isn't playing in the development league, and isn't developing. Reason for not getting playing time: Apparently he doesn't know the plays. Sure, he's a smart shot blocking 7 footer who has a nice offensive game AND is a very hard worker who hustles . . . but he's not going to get to play because by playing him he would then be in a position to actually learn the plays, and then we would have even less of an excuse for why he isn't playing. He's almost a gestalt character that takes the size (mostly) and shot blocking of Fess, with the hustle and work ethic of Collins . . . and gets none of the playing time that he should. Something fishy: There is no good reason not to play this guy, develop him with real NBA minutes, or even send him to the NBA D-League for some in game action. He hasn't seen the developmental league at all in his career, instead getting better by wearing suits next to Carlos Boozer for 50+ games. That's another thing, he got some very minor playing time just because of injuries . . . this season was a prime season to be forced into playing and developing younger talent. Sloan had to work many games without being able to call on veteran bigmen . . . but still he elected to instead play Matt Harpring at power forward. Huh?

It's not that difficult to imagine that the Jazz are hurting their futures by risking not getting these guys playing time because they do not want to lose them to other teams . . . but they also get nothing out of these guys. Other teams play younger players during the regular season so that they may become contributors to that team . . . and even help them in the playoffs. Heck, our team did this with Paul Millsap as a rookie, or Shandon Anderson (more on him later), or Bryon Russell and a host of others. There's no doubt in my mind that if Fess of Kosta were getting 12-15 mpg this season that one of them would be able to contribute in the playoffs for us. Instead the development time has become much longer for a bunch of guys who could be helping us now. Also, it's not that difficult to imagine that the Jazz are hurting the values of their players by flat out burying them during contract years. No playing time = no exposure and no stats = bargain prices. They did this with C.J., and if they had a time machine, would probably like to do so with others as well.

The way that the Jazz develop talent seems to be highly unequal. Some young guys get regular burn, while others don't. This time is directly proportional towards development. I think that Jazz Brass feel the financial side to all of this needs to take precedence over the immediate development and returns from the players on the roster. The Jazz gave good minutes to a solid player (Shandon Anderson) as a rookie, and eventually left the team, the Jazz get nothing in the long term for it. The Jazz gave good minutes to a very talented player (Andrei Kirilenko), and end up having to really over-pay to keep him on the team. The Jazz don't want to get into anything like that again, and now underplay most guys during the span of their rookie contracts, so they they do not have to over-pay.

C.J., only after the Jazz matched an offer he got from another team, is finally getting playing time -- but as a 4th year guard with the potential that he had when he was drafted, he is behind where he should be. They seem to be guilty of doing that with Almond and Fesenko by not playing them in the NBA, nor allowing them to rack up stats in the D-League . . . which would have been a great way to audition for other teams during contract years -- or you know, actually get better and be able to help OUR team.

Some Jazz apologists feel like the practices the Jazz have are of greater value to a younger player than actually playing in the development league, or even playing in the NBA on poorer quality teams. I think that this is a very haughty thing to say . . . especially with how closely the Jazz *can* keep an eye on things with their development team being only a few miles away and the coach of that team is related to Jerry Sloan -- it almost seems like a no-brainer to send the kids down at least once each when none of them are even on the active roster with the Jazz. They threw C.J. a bone once by doing that, by giving him a chance to play, and that improved his morale. Why not do the same for a younger player this season? Sloan even goes out to harp on how great the D-League is, and how he wishes they had that when he first came into the league. If it's so great, why not use it, now that the rest of the guys are healthy?

As for how great the Jazz practices are . . . they rarely get a chance to practice on the road (they only practice on days off, and now at the end of the season, with the playoffs coming up, there may be less than the regular number of practices on off-days), so the younglings are getting even less time to improve than normal. This clearly is the case where the GM, at the behest of saving the team owner money, works with the coaches to screw the players out of money / job satisfaction. Or maybe that's by design, especially in their contract years?

Forward March!

The Utah Jazz finished February with their best record in franchise history: 10-1. It was a spectacular month filled with victories over the likes of the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, New Orleans Hornets and playoff teams from both conferences. As good as February was, January was a travesty where the Jazz limped to a 7-8 record. There are only 23 games left in the regular schedule -- and only 23 games left for the Jazz to make any solid moves up in the standings. March sees the Jazz playing in 15 games, and April has the Jazz playing in 8 regular season games. They are on the road 14 times, and at home only 9 times.

The major problem I can see, when looking over the schedule, is that fatigue is really going to set in late. Hopefully this is the case with all of the teams in the running for the playoffs -- but the Jazz have a particularly tough task. First of all, there's another extended Eastern Conference road trip that needs to happen, one that will span 8 days, and have the Jazz playing 5 times. (we already know how poor the Jazz are on the road, and how poor they are against the East . . .) The Jazz will face off against Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta, Miami and Orlando. The games against Atlanta and Orlando are both the 2nd night of back to back sets; furthermore, the game against Atlanta would be the 3rd game in 4 nights. If the Jazz win three out of those five games I'll be bouncing off the walls.

The second, and perhaps larger, problem is the cumulative effect of all of these games. The Jazz play 8 back to back sets still. (15 of our last 23 games are either the first or second game of a back to back set, or 70%) If that was not enough, 9 of these last 23 games will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Jazz. (@ Atlanta, vs. Washington, @ Portland, @ Denver, vs. Minnesota, @ New Orleans, vs. Golden State, vs. LA Clippers, @ LA Lakers) Do any of those look like important games to win? I see a few there.

The largest obstacle will be around the end of March and the beginning of April where the Jazz will play Houston at home, then the next night fly to Phoenix to take on the Suns. Two days later the Jazz face the Suns at home. I don't know the exact injury situation with Phoenix, but as far as I can tell, they will either be in full tank mode, or swing for the fences mode. The next week the Jazz will face the Knicks at home, then fly the next night to play the Blazers -- one of the previously mentioned 3rd game in 4 nights sets. This will be the last game of March, and it goes all downhill from there. The Jazz then fly over to Denver to play the first game of a back to back set, which is also the 3rd game in 4 nights, and yes, the 5th game in 6 nights. How often do you get the 5th game in 7 nights? Very rarely, but only when you play a game the very next night, at home against Minnesota, that's the second night of a back to back, and ultimately, the 6th game in 7 nights. Yes, this is how the Jazz start off April -- playing 6 times in a week, with one of our last remaining 'gimmie' games at home against a non-playoff team being scheduled at the worst possible time. [EDIT: This is incorrect, the Jazz game vs. the Timberwolves will be the 5th game in 7 nights, not 6th in 7]

To add insult to injury, the Jazz play again, on the road in New Orleans on that Sunday, a single game that does not look too hard, but will be the 3rd game in 4 nights, and the 4th game in 6 games, 5th game in 7. The Jazz will have a needed two day rest, and then finish the last 5 games of the seasons @ Dallas, @ San Antonio, vs. Golden State (2nd game in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights), vs. the LA Clippers (3rd game in 4 nights), and then on the road to face the LA Lakers (2nd night in a back to back set, 3rd game in 4 nights).

I really pray that this is the case for all teams right now, and that everyone will be equally tired to finish the season. The Jazz play against a Top 10 team in the Western Conference 13 times (out of 15 remaining Western Conference games) to finish the season. The Jazz are shaky on the road . . . hopefully Boozer will be full of energy from that mid-season holiday he took.

Just because I am insane, here it all is in chart form:

	Game	Opponent	Location	Date	Conf.	Playoff Team	Part of B2B Set?	Other:
March	1	Golden State	Road	March 1	West		2nd game
	2	Houston	Home	March 4	West	Yes		Season series 0-2
	3	Denver	Home	March 6	West	Yes		Season series 1-1
	4	Toronto	Road	March 8	East
	5	Indiana	Road	March 10	East		1st game
	6	Atlanta	Road	March 11	East	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
	7	Miami	Road	March 14	East	Yes	1st game
	8	Orlando	Road	March 15	East	Yes	2nd game
	9	Washington	Home	March 17	East			3rd game in 4
	10	Oklahoma City	Road	March 20	West
	11	Houston	Home	March 24	West	Yes	1st game
	12	Phoenix	Road	March 25	West	?	2nd game	Season series 1-1
	13	Phoenix	Home	March 28	West	?
	14	New York	Home	March 30	East		1st game	Last game vs. East until Finals
	15	Portland	Road	March 31	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4
April	16	Denver	Road	April 2	West	Yes	1st game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 6
	17	Minnesota	Home	April 3	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5 5th game in 7
	18	New Orleans	Road	April 5	West	Yes		3rd game in 4 4th game in 6 5th game in 7
	19	Dallas	Road	April 8	West	Yes
	20	San Antonio	Road	April 10	West	Yes	1st game
	21	Golden State	Home	April 11	West		2nd game	3rd game in 4
	22	LA Clippers	Home	April 13	West		1st game	3rd game in 4
	23	LA Lakers	Road	April 14	West	Yes	2nd game	3rd game in 4 4th game in 5

The Jazz are currently sitting at 36-23, and need 14 games to win 50 for the season. ESPN.com predicted that the Jazz would win 51 games -- a number that I thought was ridiculously low back in Pre-Season. I was so bold as to suggest that the Jazz would finish the season (including playoffs) with 65 wins this year. The last two seasons the Jazz won 60 games total (2006-2007: 51 regular season, 9 playoffs; 2007-2008: 54 regular season, 6 playoffs) -- so I felt like a 5 game improvement wouldn't be that far out of the realm of possibility. For my statement to be true (65 wins), and let's assume the Jazz win 6 playoff games (2nd round exit) the Jazz will need to win each of these last 23 games. As much as that would be awesome, I just don't see it happening. (In my defense, though, I could not know that the Jazz would miss over 150 man games to injury this year)

Instead of doing the whole 'poke holes into my ability to gauge how well my team can win games' game, let's move forward . . . into March. The Jazz have momentum right now, having won 7 games straight, 9 in a row at home, and 10 of their last 11. They need to keep it going, or else they may end up facing San Antonio or the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. I'd take the Jazz' chances in the first round against any of the other teams in the West (Denver, Houston, Portland, New Orleans, Dallas, Phoenix), even without home court. The Playoff Push all starts tonight on the road to the Golden State Warriors -- who killed us last time we played them.

Game 5 Recap: Utah 104, Oklahoma City 97

Game at a Glance:

The Jazz win despite repeatedly not taking the Thunder for real. The Jazz did not think much of the Thunder to start the game, and Jerry Sloan had to call a time out in the 1st quarter with the score 0 - 8 in favor of the road team. The Jazz plowed their way to a 58 - 29 half time lead (a 20+ - 2 run after that time out). After the half the Jazz started to turn the ball over and miss foul shots -- eventually the Thunder got back in it; then the Jazz finished them off. The game was not as close as the score indicated, it's quite easy to beat a team when only four guys show up (Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Desmond Mason and Earl Watson) -- and those guys were hardly impact players. Jerry Sloan won his 1000th game with the Utah Jazz franchise, apparently, that's kind of a big thing.

[ Yahoo!Sports.com Game Recap -- ESPN.com's boxscore -- NBA.com's game highlights -- NBA TV Post-Game Interview with Jerry Sloan ]

Jazz Quartet -- Top Four Players of the Game:

Andrei Kirilenko	Brevin Knight	Carlos Boozer	Kyle Korver
Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty	Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty	Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty	Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty
AK had a double double (16 and 12) tonight and added 2 assists and 2 blocks. He would have had more assists but Paul Millsap mishandled some easy ones. In my opinion he kind of started to 'force' things on offense after Desmond Mason started to score on the other end of the court -- with varied rates of success.	Brev' continues his solid play off the bench, he had 11 assists in 28 minutes of action last night. His jumper was off (1-4), but he made his free throws. He added 3 steals and had some really good outlet pass/assists to guys who were streaking. (Not in that Will Ferrell / Old School type of way though)	Carlos gets robbed of a double double for the nth game in a row, finishing with 21, 9, 5 assists and a steal and block each. He seems to really feast on bad teams, and continues to do so this season. He was looking to pass more and was robbed of a few assists because of the long arm deflections of the Thunder.	Kyle Korver had a game fit for his name. He shot 5-7 from the floor, and would have gone 4-5 from three on top of his made three had the threes not been negated by mental mistakes like guys getting caught for three in the key. He ended up with 13 points (5-7, 1-2, 2-3), 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal off the bench.

Hon. Mention: This could be renamed the "Ronnie Brewer Award" if this keeps up. Ronnie gets just edged out by Korver tonight. Brewer had 2 more assists, but Korver had 2 more points while shooting 4 less times. Kyle also had a steal, and Brewer did not. Also, Korver had 3 other three pointers robbed from him tonight because of Millsap fouls or turn overs. (Three in the key, etc) When Deron comes back expect Ronnie to be in the Jazz Quartet quite a bit as the season goes on . . . but if Ronnie keeps getting edged out, I may retroactively change it to Jazz Quintet. (something I wouldn't want to do)

Digging Deeper:

This game was not close, what kept it close was a combination of the Thunder's lack of respect for the unsaid rules (scoring the ball on what should have been the last possession of the game, etc), their tenacity in the passing lanes (they got a lot of deflections and 10 steals), and their never say die attitude. They were down big at half, but stormed back to cut it to 15 going into the 4th quarter. The game did not look close, but the Thunder never gave up. So they get props from me. Early on it looked like our benchwarmers (Morris Almond, Kyrylo Fesenko and Kosta Koufos) may get some extended burn in this game, but they did not even get off the bench.

Kevin Durant only really scored on open jumpers . . . methinks that he's going to fit that Rashard Lewis mold in a few years if he doesn't diversify his game. He did have this nasty cross over that planted CJ on his butt, as Durant threw it down. Durant's team mates Desmond Mason and Earl Watson started cookin' in the 3rd quarter, when their team made their run, but the Jazz just got a lot of easy buckets down the stretch.

The Jazz did miss 10 free throws in the game, and were very sloppy in the 2nd half. Carlos Boozer had 6 turn overs and Paul Millsap had 5. A 16 rebound to 11 turn over ratio from your power forwards isn't going to get it done against teams with better bigs. (No disrespect intended to Johan Petro and Nick Collison, starters who ended the game with 8 points and 8 rebounds combined for Oklahoma City.)

Winning 5 games in a row is pretty special, starting the season undefeated is also pretty special -- doing both with our best player out is really special. Sloan has been going 9 deep all season long, and our bench has been producing: 42 points, 25 rebounds, 15 assists, 6 steals and 3 blocks last night. That's a key component of how the Jazz have been winning games. Credit goes to Jerry Sloan for picking up the 1k wins in SLC. He has to be doing something right to win all those games -- it's not like he just had Jordan, Shaq and Kobe get him all those wins.

Next Game: Friday November 9th, 2008 -- Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks [3:00 PM EST]

Flashback Friday: The first 10 games of the last two seasons

Last season (2007-2008) the Utah Jazz won 54 games in the regular season, but only 6 in the post season, for a grand total of 60 wins. The Jazz also won 60 total wins the previous season (2006-2007) -- 51 in the regular season and 9 in the post season. I think that this club is ready to break the 60 total win barrier and do something special this season. The years where the Utah Jazz start off hot as usually the most successful seasons for the Jazz as well. That said, it has to start somewhere, so let's take a look at the first 10 games of the last two seasons: 2006-2007 and 2007-2008.

	2006-2007				2007-2008				2008-2009
	Opponent	Win	Record		Opponent	Win	Record		Opponent	Win	Record
1	Houston Rockets	Yes	1-0		@ Golden State Warriors	Yes	1-0		Denver Nuggets	Yes	1-0
2	@ Phoenix Suns	Yes	2-0		Houston Rockets		1-1		LA Clippers	Yes	2-0
3	Golden State Warriors	Yes	3-0		Golden State Warriors	Yes	2-1		@ LA Clippers	Yes	3-0
4	Detroit Pistons	Yes	4-0		@ LA Lakers		2-2		Portland Trailblazers	Yes	4-0
5	@ New Jersey Nets		4-1		Cleveland Cavaliers	Yes	3-2		Oklahoma City Thunder	Yes	5-0
6	@ Boston Celtics	Yes	5-1		@ Seattle Supersonics	Yes	4-2		@ New York Knicks	?
7	@ Milwaukee Bucks	Yes	6-1		Memphis Grizzlies	Yes	5-2		@ Philadelphia 76ers	?
8	@ LA Clippers	Yes	7-1		Sacramento Kings	Yes	6-2		@ Washington Wizards	?
9	@ Seattle Supersonics	Yes	8-1		@ Toronto Raptors	Yes	7-2		@ Charlotte Bobcats	?
10	Phoenix Suns	Yes	9-1		@ Cleveland Cavaliers		7-3		@ Cleveland Cavaliers	?

The last two seasons the Jazz started above .500 and went on to have pretty successful seasons (winning their Division, getting to (at the very least) the 2nd round of the playoffs). In 06-07 the Jazz beat some really good squads on their way to an amazing 9-1 record. (Phoenix twice, Houston, Detroit, etc) The next season the Jazz lost the games against harder opponents -- like the Lakers, the Rockets, and the Cavs on the road. This season how do you think the Jazz will fare?

The remaining games after tonight's game against Oklahoma (which we won, btw) appear to be 'easier' than having to face 5 Western powers in a row, though they comprise a really tough Eastern stretch where there are:

• two sets of back to back games (Nov. 11th-12th; Nov. 14th-15th)
• three different situations of 3 games in 4 nights (Nov. 9th, 11th & 12th; Nov. 11th, 12th & 14th; Nov. 12th, 14th & 15th)
• 4 games in 5 nights (Nov. 11th, 12th, 14th & 15th)
• and ultimately, 5 games in 7 nights.

That's brutal. If you have any Jazz guys on your fantasy team start them this week as there are 5 games -- but if you are just a Jazz fan, you do not relish the upcoming week.

Just because you are playing against the Eastern teams doesn't mean that they are just going to roll over. We're traditionally not that great on the road, and the schedule works against us here. Let's go over these teams and the games the Jazz will play against them in:

November 9th, 2008	@ New York Knicks
	New York (3-2) is a run an gun team that's nothing like the Eddie Curry / Zach Randolph disaster from last season. (101.6 ppg so far this season) Almost everyone on their team shoots threes -- 7 different guys on their roster has made at least one. Making things worse is the fact that we've been historically bad in Madison Square Garden over the years. This is not going to be as easy as we think to get a win here -- especially when we're going in there without Deron Williams. Nate Robinson has been playing very well this season, so far coming off the bench to average 16 ppg (48.4 fg%, 42.3 3pt%), 4.2 rpg, 4.8 apg and 2.6 spg. Wilson Chandler has a surprisingly effective offensive game as well. There's no guarantee to say we'll win this one.
November 11th, 2008	@ Philadelphia 76ers
	Philly (2-4) is supposed to be really good, a top team in the East -- at least according to pre-season projections by "experts" . . . so far their offense looks horrible and their team isn't winning. That said, they are long and big inside (Brand, Dalembert, Marreese, etc) and have some youth and athleticism in the likes of Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and this Iguodala guy. Boozer hates playing against guys with longer reaches than he has -- and all three of those big guys have than on Booz. Additionally, stronger slashers with good first steps routinely can burn Brewer and Kirilenko -- and Thaddeus and Andre Iguodala both fit the bill there. By the time they play the Jazz, they would have had a 5 day rest.
November 12th, 2008	@ Washington Wizards
	Washington (0-4) has been playing without Gilbert Arenas, and is still looking for their first win of the season. Tonight they play the Orlando Magic and could very well be down 0-5 by the time that they play the Jazz -- but that doesn't mean they still can't hurt us . . . they are a good outside shooting team, and the duo of Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison (two mobile and active players on offense) can score with ease. It's about this time of the road trip that fatigue could be setting in as this is the 2nd game in a back to back and the first 'three games in four nights' set of the season for the Jazz. Through some quirks of the scheduling, the Wizards will have three free days before the game against the Jazz, and be rested.
November 14th, 2008	@ Charlotte Bobcats
	Logic suggests that a game against Charlotte (2-3) would be a relative breather at this stage in the 5 game road trip, but the Bobcats are long and athletic -- and have nothing to lose. They beat the New Orleans Hornets last night, and that should show us how dangerous they can be on any given night, thanks to Coach Larry Brown. They will have played the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets this next week before they face off against the Jazz on Friday. We don't know what's going to happen with Gerald Wallace during that time period, but we know that they are strong defensively inside with Wallace (8.8 rpg, 2.4 spg, 1.0 bpg) and Okafor (11.0 rpg, 1.0 bpg). In addition there's this Jason Richardson (17.6 ppg, 1.2 3ptm/game) guy who is pretty dynamic and used to score on us at will back when he was playing for the Golden State Warriors. So far they are only scoring 90.4 ppg, and if there is one easy game during this road trip, this may very well be it. It's a 3rd game in four nights game, by the way.
November 15th, 2008	@ Cleveland Cavaliers
	This game against the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-2, who have games against Chicago, Milwaukee and Denver this week before they tip off against the Jazz)  is another 'three games in four nights' set; the 2nd night of a back to back set; and the fourth game in five nights. And yes, if you're keeping track, 5th game in 7 nights total. It's a game against the talented, bruising and defensive minded Cleveland Cavaliers. They are really big inside with Zydrunas, Sideshow Bob and Ben Wallace; feature a plethora of smaller guards who don't have any consciences when it comes to attempting threes (Boobie Gibson, Delonte West, Mo Williams, Sasha Pavlovic, etc). Last, but not least, they have LeBron James. Also Boozer hardly ever plays well there. If we win this game, I will give up eating bacon for a month. And I love bacon.

I'd like to think the Jazz could end up with another 9-1 record, but I don't count on it . . . the schedule is the main opponent for the Jazz during this 5 game Eastern Conference road trip, and the main opponent the Jazz are going to face during our first 10 games of the season. I wouldn't be surprised for the Jazz to limp home after this trip with 3 losses. Then again . . . this is all speculative appraisals of the situation based on a world where Deron Williams does not suit up in any of these games. (And it looks like he's not going to suit up at all for a while now, according to the Deseret News.)

The Jazz have 5 more games -- all on this East trip -- how do you think they'll finish? Will the Jazz go 10-0 to start the season? 5-5? 6-4? What do you guys think?

N.B. All Images are photographed for NBAE/Getty Images

Sorry Haters -- Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz

First of all, Deron Williams got hurt over the weekend. Everyone knows about this already, and it's been blogged about already. (Some good reads on the subject can be found: here, here, here, and here) I was particularly surprised to find that David James had basically blogged about exactly what I was going to write. (Props to you, DJ!) That said, everyone is entitled to their take on this situation -- I look at the 'glass if half full' point of view on most things, and as a result, this injury is not going to hurt the Jazz. The best news so far is that Deron isn't going to be out for the season. He's only going to be out somewhere between 2 weeks to a month. That's the estimate that I've read the most online, and as a result, let's say that the worst case scenario is that Deron can't play for 6 weeks. (Three times the best case scenario) What's going to happen in 6 weeks time (from his injury, back on October 18th)?

During this time span the Jazz would have played around 20 games (18 regular season and 1 pre-season), and the first possible game Deron will play in would be the 1st game of December. So that means that in the worst case scenario Deron *may* miss the entire first month of the season. It's a really good thing that the NBA finals happens in June, and not November then. Furthermore, the schedule is pretty light during this time period -- you can take a look at the full schedule here, or read about how important it is for the Jazz to get off to a good start here. The types of teams we play don't change if we don't have Deron playing. For the most part, these teams are pretty crappy.

Lastly, there are some key injuries/suspensions to other players that do make a significant difference as well. (unless, of course, you don't think that Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli aren't difference makers) Now let's break down the hypothetical (and entirely unnecessary) 6 weeks without Deron Williams:

Week 1: October 19th, 2008 - October 25th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
1	Oct 23	Pre-Season	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez

The NBA season doesn't start for the Jazz until October 29th, and there is only one Pre-season game left. This game (against the Blazers) means nothing for Deron, so there's nothing lost by having him out. So for the first week of Deron's injury the Jazz are missing nothing -- in fact, the Jazz get a chance to really figure out who can handle the ball, get the Jazz in their offense, and find out who's going to start between Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. Other candidates for running the team include C.J. Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko. For a whole week of only ONE game (a preseason one at that), this isn't going to be any problem for a Deron Williams-less Jazz team.

For the record, the T-Blazers have the advantage when it comes to ball handlers in this game, but this game doesn't matter at all.

Week 2: October 26th, 2008 - November 1st, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
2	Oct 29	Regular	Denver	Home	Allen Iverson
					Chucky Atkins
					Anthony Carter
					Smush Parker
					Mateen Cleaves
	Nov 1	Regular	LA Clippers	Home	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart

The 2nd week is when the Jazz start their NBA season. The first game of the season is against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have the advantage at the point with Deron out as they have Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter all available (as far as I know). I don't know if Smush Parker or Mateen Cleaves will make the roster, but the Nuggets are more capable at the 1 for this game than the Jazz. The good news is that this game is at home, and the Nuggets will be without Carmelo Anthony -- who will be suspended for this game. This is the home opener, and the other team is more hurt than we are (Deron vs. Melo), so I say that we start off the season with a win.

The 2nd game of the season is against the LA Clippers. The only thing we have to know about this game is if Baron Davis will play in it or not. There are conflicting reports on the Internet (he may not miss any time, or he may miss 4-6 weeks), but if he doesn't play, this doesn't look like that bad of a week if you ask me. If he does play changes things a bit, but the Clippers are still a less talented team than the Jazz are without Deron Williams. If the game ends up being Eric Gordon and Jason Hart against Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight I think my Tivo will destroy itself.

Oh, and by the way, most reports suggest that Deron will be shelved for two weeks. This is the end of two weeks. Not too shabby . . .

Week 3: November 2nd, 2008 - November 8th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
3	Nov 3	Regular	LA Clippers	Road	Baron Davis *
					Eric Gordon
					Jason Hart
	Nov 5	Regular	Portland	Home	Steve Blake
					Jerryd Bayless
					Brandon Roy
					Sergio Rodriguez
	Nov 7	Regular	Oklahoma City	Home	Earl Watson
					Russell Westbrook
					John Lucas III

This is when things start to get a little bit more challenging. There are three games on tap, a road game against the LA Clippers, then home games against Portland and the "we're not even settled in yet" Oklahoma City Thunder. There is nothing too special about any of these games save for the fact that Baron should be healed by now, if he wasn't for the previous game. Over all I'd take the Jazz to win any of these three games (if not all three) as they are the most talented team (hype be damned!) on each night this week. I think the Jazz will be up to play against Portland, and defend their home court against a team that owned us last season. Oklahoma's ball handler's don't scare anyone.

So far we've only played 1 playoff team -- and that's Denver without Carmelo Anthony. I'm sure if Deron is out three weeks that we're not going to be really hurting without him.

Week 4: November 9th, 2008 - November 15th, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
5	Nov 9	East Road Trip	New York	Road	Stephon Marbury
					Chris Duhon
					Nate Robinson
					Jamal Crawford
	Nov 11	East Road Trip	Philadelphia	Road	Andre Miller
					Louis Williams
					Royal Ivey
	Nov 12	East Road Trip	Washington	Road	Gilbert Arenas *
					Dee Brown
					DeShawn Stevenson
					Juan Dixon
	Nov 14	East Road Trip	Charlotte	Road	Raymond Felton
					D.J. Augustin
	Nov 15	East Road Trip	Cleveland	Road	Mo Williams
					Daniel Gibson
					LeBron James
					Delonte West
					Eric Snow

If Week 3 was a bit more challenging, then Week 4 is a killer. This is one of our numerous Eastern Conference Road Trips. This trip is going to be *only* 5 games long, and all takes place within a week. Furthermore, this team features two sets of back-to-backs, three 3 games in 4 nights deals, and ends up being 5 games in 7 nights. How ridiculous! If Deron isn't healthy by Week 4 I just say keep in him Utah. The last thing we need is for him to test out his body against this Eastern Conference Circus. For the record, Gilbert Arenas may not play in this game, the Bobcats suck, and the Knicks do as well. There is no way that we're winning in Cleveland when it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 nights though.

That said, if Deron is healthy, we can win quite a few of these road games . . . if not, this is the only bad week if he's out for 6 weeks.

Week 5: November 16th, 2008 - November 22nd, 2008

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 17	Regular	Phoenix	Home	Steve Nash *
					Leandro Barbosa
					Goran Dragic
					Grant Hill
	Nov 19	Regular	Milwaukee	Home	Luke Ridnour
					Charlie Bell
					Tyronn Lue
					Damon Jones
	Nov 21	Regular	San Antonio	Road	Tony Parker
					Jacque Vaughn
					George Hill
	Nov 22	Regular	Memphis	Road	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry

Week 5 is much better than Week 4, as there are only 4 games to play. The first pair of games are at home, and the last two are on the road. The first game is against the Phoenix Suns, though Nash may be injured for this game as well. (what luck! No Carmelo, possibly no Baron, maybe no Gilbert, and now maybe no Nash!) It's still going to be tough to beat the Suns without Deron though. Thankfully the next game is against Milwaukee -- and their point guards are worse than ours are. (How many times a season are our ball handlers going to be better than the other teams' when Deron is injured?) The first road game is in San Antonio (Manu is injured as well), but I still expect a loss, as it's in San Antonio. The last game of week 5 is against Memphis -- which isn't a very experienced team when it comes to handling the rock either.

I'd be happy with a 2-2 split this week -- especially after the horrible Week 4 East Road Trip.

Week 6: November 23rd, 2008 - November 29th, 2008.

Number of games	Date	Type	Opponent	Location	Opponent Ball Handlers
4	Nov 24	Home stand	Chicago	Home	Kirk Hinrich
					Ben Gordon
					Derrick Rose
					Larry Hughes
	Nov 26	Home stand	Memphis	Home	Mike Conley
					Javaris Crittenton
					Kyle Lowry
	Nov 28	Home stand	Sacramento	Home	Beno Udrih
					Bobby Jackson
	Nov 29	Home stand	New Jersey	Home	Devin Harris
					Eddie Gill

This is the last week of my hypothetical worst case scenario . . . we all know that Deron Williams isn't going to be sidelined for the first 18 games of the season with an ankle injury. If he was, though, this last week could finish on a very high note on this four game home stand. All four of these clubs stink, and while they appear to have an advantage at PG with Deron out I know that we are still more talented then all of them. The first game is against the Bulls, and you know that the Jazz will be fired up for that, as it's at home (and you know, the revenge factor). The home game at Memphis could very well be an AK-47 5x5 night. Sacramento has a lot of shooters, but they don't have any defenders. New Jersey is crap.

I have the Jazz going 13-5 over the first 18 games of the season without Deron Williams. I have the Jazz maybe winning 3 more games if they had him. The schedule and injuries are in our favor -- and any rest for Deron is fine with me. So yeah . . . Deron Williams' injury isn't going to hurt the Jazz. If anything, all of this time without relying on him is going to make them better.

And really . . . he's not going to be out for 6 weeks, probably 2 or 3 if there is a set back. (You know, a grand total of 5 games)