Showing posts with label Plays - Three Point Shots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Plays - Three Point Shots. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Deron Williams / Ronnie Brewer 6th best Backcourt in NBA ?

There are some really good tandems out there in the NBA right now. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobili along with Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen obviously comprise championship caliber backcourts. Mike Bibby paired up with Joe Johnson causes all kinds of trouble for defenders – similarly Steve Nash and Jason Richardson can flat out make defenders look silly. Even hypothetically amazing backcourts will assemble this season, like in Portland with Andre Miller and Brandon Roy, and down in Orlando with Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter. These are all great backcourts in paper, but just where does Deron Williams and Ronnie Brewer rank among them? Justin DeFeo, of Sir Charles in Charge, states that the Jazz tandem is clearly a Top 10 backcourt in the league – 6th specifically – and one where both players “compliment each other well,” (DeFeo, 2009, ¶13). He continues to say that:

No rookie, look where I'm pointing
Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Williams is the do it all point guard and has the ball in his hands often, so he needs to be paired with a shooting guard who can do other things (defend, rebound) and create opportunities for himself without the ball (steals, loose balls, offensive rebounds) and thats (sic) the type of game Brewer has.

This is high praise, and I fully appreciate someone else noticing that while Deron isn’t a classic point guard, and Brewer surely is not a classic shooting guard (isn’t he just a SF who defends the other teams’ best perimeter scorer?), that together they are a pretty good team. Let’s go over some of the ways in which they do compliment each other:

Offense:

Deron dominates the ball on offense. Some teams have some sort of ball-sharing provision between the PG and the SG (like how Brandon Roy basically had to do everything himself in Portland). This has never been the case in Utah, not in Stockton’s time, and not now. Deron has a very solid handle on the ball and is able to maneuver himself into the lane with or without help from screens. Williams does this not with simple blinding speed, or a series of picks from teammates, he uses power and finesse to go from point A to point B, going over any and all terrain in the process. He has all the moves, and can get into the lane whenever he wants. (Essentially, he’s a swashbuckler with a basketball in his hands) He’s not just a PG who will bring the ball up the floor, hang out at the three point line, and pass the ball to someone to start a play. Deron’s penetration allows for defenders to shift their attention from the man they are guarding to Deron Williams (who is a scoring threat in the lane). This shifted attention allows for guys who move well without the ball to find open spots (often in their defender’s blindspots) and be in scoring position. If Deron Williams is daring swashbuckler who can move with a quickness and body control that belie his physique then Ronnie Brewer is the stealthy assassin who moves in the shadows, unaccounted for, with muscles tensed up for a finishing strike. It happens again, and again and again. Ideally, a drive and dish PG would be paired with a guy who had a reliable outside shot – but at best, a three pointer is a 40% success rate, while dunks are, generally speaking, much, much more effective.

Deron is a capable three point shooter – though his percentage has been a roller coaster his entire NBA career (42%, then 32%, then 40%, then 31%), and if he’s the only one of the two with an outside shot you can clearly see a deficiency in that department for this backcourt tandem. (By comparison, LA, Orlando, Atlanta and a few other teams on DeFeo’s list are replete with guys who can absolutely bomb from outside)

This group is just as adept in halfcourt sets as they are on the break. Utah produces a lot of deflections and Brewer starts as many breaks (with his natural quickness and 6’11 wingspan) as he is capable of finishing (with his 42” vertical). Deron hardly ever makes the wrong decision on who to pass to, and the two (naturally) hook up for Alley-Oops more frequently than any Utah tandem since Mark Jackson played here. Offensively, the two are nearly a match made in heaven.

Defense:

If Deron is the leader on Offense, Ronnie is the leader on Defense. Brewer starts the game off checking the other teams’ best scoring wing – regardless if he is a shooter or slasher or whatever. Ronnie gets the call until AK gets off the bench. If the last few playoffs are an indication – few players play better man defense (without fouling) on Kobe Bryant than Brewer does. In no way am I suggesting that Brewer shuts Kobe down, I’m just saying that he plays good man defense. Many times I’ve seen Kobe take shots that absolutely could not have been defended better without the aid of being allowed to do Bruce Bowen style fouling, and still make them over Ronnie. Kobe just makes amazing shots – and he’s had quite a few against Brewer. Brewer is more than just a speed bump on defense. His long arms, quickness and penchant for playing the passing lanes made him one of the league leaders in steals last season. He’s long enough, with good enough hops that I would expect him to get more ‘from behind’ LeBron style blocks this season though. While Brewer is a physical freak, his defensive instincts lead the way – and that’s usually towards pressuring the other team into making a mistake.

Deron does not get all the flashy steals that Brewer does, but he is quick enough on defense to stay with faster ball handlers, and just big and physical enough to discourage them from driving too much. (Just look at how the, honestly, best PG in the NBA, Chris Paul, is so taken out of his game whenever he plays Deron. CP3 owns everyone, and he is rightfully the best PG in the league right now. Deron is just the perfect storm on defense to give him trouble, and good enough on offense to tire him out there) If the first foundation for team defense is to slow down the other team’s ball handler / forward progression, then it’s obvious that Deron Williams is a very solid defender.

Together they comprise a physical, long defensive backcourt. Brewer is 6’7 with the previously mentioned 6’11 wingspan and the quickness of a man much smaller than he. Deron is a 6’3 point guard who was a wrestler in high school and deceptively quick. (check out his draft combine scores, you’ll be surprised) If anything, I think that they are better on defense than they are on offense!

What do the Stats Say:

I’m a stats junkie. So this is important to me. Also, I guess I’m debuting my new stats format. If you want to know about what some of these things are, you can always read my treatise on my own created stats. If you don’t want to, just wait for the analysis that will appear below.

Deron Williams Ronnie Brewer
Oct 9 2008 [Melissa Majchrzak NBAE Getty] Nov 26 2008 [AP Photo] Brewer throws it down
click for original image click for original image

First of all, for those of you following along at home, I have changed the GO Rating, and expect a new post about the New formula shortly. What you need to know about it is what these scores mean. The GO Rating incorporates all possible statistically tracked outcomes on offense, hence the full name of “Gestalt Offense”. The GO Rating is in light blue, all the things in the light blue cell background are my own invented stats. I think they better round out what you see. Anyway . . . what is a good GO Rating? I depends on what you are looking for. If you are a point guard it’s hard to be upset if you get a rating in the 130’s. Magic Johnson’s regular season career totals calculate to a GO Rating of 138.784. Allen Iverson’s GO Rating for the same category (career regular season stats) is 134.883. Deron gets 135.701 for his work last season – though shortened by injury, arguably his best season ever. As a further point of reference, Gary Payton’s career GO Rating is 88.882, that’s almost 50 points lower than Deron. Brewer’s rating is much lower, but that’s due to a few major factors. Firstly, wing players who do not take many shots (see shooting frequency, the higher the number the more time it takes to get a shot off) hardly ever do well. Scottie Pippen’s GO Rating for his career regular season stats stands at only 71.431. As solid as Pip was offensively, Brewer is nearly there in his 3rd season in the NBA. That’s not too shabby.

Again, the stats don’t lie when they show how poorly they are as a team when it comes to three point shooting. They make up for it with stellar eField Goal percentages (which I think are more important than just FG% and 3PT%). They both shoot better than average, when it comes to their shooting worth (average being 1.2). Offensively they are very competent getting to the line a combined 10 times a game and averaging over 30 points between the two, while dishing the ball with a good Assists to Turn over ratio. Offensively they put up quite solid stats, and I feel like they are even better defensively. Of course, defensive stats are pretty much useless, so take these with a grain of salt. (if you want more on that rant, read my treatise, linked above)

These guys don’t usually get called for fouls, so that’s pretty good. What is even better is that both of them come out on the positive side of their defensive gambling – Brewer especially makes very smart gambles on defense: effectively getting 2 steals for each fouls he commits. If he was to gamble defensively at that rate he would foul out with nearly 8 steals a game. (For those watching him closely know that he got 6 steals in a recent USA Select team scrimmage) Deron still manages over a steal per game as well, and his primary duty is to man up on his guy, and not actually go for steals. Neither of them block worth a damn – though Brewer should get more in my opinion. Both of their pure hustle ratings clearly fall below that of the Dream Team members, but exist within an acceptable range for starters in today’s NBA. These defensive statistics are not overwhelming – but I don’t put much stock in defensive stats at all. The best defense causes no effect on an individual’s boxscore; if you defend a guy so well that he takes shot he can’t make then you get nothing, except the satisfaction of playing good defense. These two guys are good defensive players – but Brewer gambles more and gets more steals – and it shows.

Conclusion:

Some statistics are worth more than others, and I’d put my money on the offensive ones actually relating to actually being good at playing. That said, Deron and Ronnie are a better defensive tandem than offensively, where their weaknesses are more exposed. (Weaknesses being that neither of them shot over 35% from three last year; as a unit they do not produce much from deep per game; they both do not jack up shots frequently (jacking up shots gives you a better Shooting Frequency and GO Rating for some reason); and so forth) Other guard tandems will score more points per game, and probably get to the free throw line more times per game. There will always be a better offensive tandem around. Collectively Ronnie and Deron make up a better defensive force, and have the talent and ability to get better (they are both closer to 20 than 30 – guys like Kobe, Fish, Vince, Nash, J-Kidd and others are getting up there and aren’t going to be as good in the next few seasons). They can be a Top 5 starting backcourt in the NBA, but they just aren’t quite there yet. I agree with DeFeo’s rankings and thank him for posting this in the first place!

P.S. Thanks to J.E.Skeets for the Ball Don’t Lie link directing me to DeFeo’s post!

Friday, March 6, 2009

"That Memo is so hot right now" - Mugatu

Memo Okur and wife Yeliz . . . too bad he's not doing the Blue Steele look here . . . Mehmet Okur, since the start of February, has made 24 of 39 threes. Looks bad, doesn't it? Well, that's 61.538 %. I felt like looking it up because the guys over at Dimemag mentioned how 'great' LeBron is shooting since the All-Star Break from deep (14-30, 46%). Yeah, if LeBron is hot from deep, Memo is an inferno right now -- over a longer stretch of time as well. Memo has upped his three point shooting % to a career high 48.5% for the season with this hot streak . . . that's good enough for 3rd best in the league right now. Also take note that he's not a specialist spot up shooter like guys like Bonner or Murphy, the only guy who has a higher scoring average on that list then Memo is Durant, who is way down to #9, Memo scores inside and out to the tune of over 18 ppg right now. When was the last time a center was in the top 5? Never, right? If you didn't get what that quote is from, it's from the movie Zoolander . . . you can watch part of the running gag here. Hmmm, today seems to be the Will Ferrell Day here at All That Jazz.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Game 6 Recap: New York 107 - Utah 99

Game at a Glance:

The Jazz and Knicks play a very sloppy game that featured a combined 38 turn overs and 25 steals and a very explosive Jazz-killer Jamal Crawford going bombs away from deep (5 threes out of 7 tries on the way to a 32 point game). Utah was looking good early, with a 5 point lead at the half, but a spectacular 3rd quarter collapse (27 to 15 in favor of the Knicks) occurred where the Knicks continued to exploit the Utah Jazz/'Jerry Sloan coaching staff' doctrine of going behind the screen to the result of countless open shots by their guards. Furthermore, the Jazz ended up getting some really cheap fouls (both Boozer and Millsap got tagged with their 4th, on offensive fouls each on layups they made) in the 3rd which compounded things, but that's what happens when you're not at home. It was during this quarter where I got that feeling in my stomach that the Jazz were not going to exorcise their Madison Square Garden Demons just yet and well . . . a picture says a thousand words . . . even Andrei's late game three point shooting couldn't save the Jazz, as their defense on the three, and inability to make their open shots doomed them to the first loss of the season.

This is how I felt during the 3rd quarter

[ ESPN.com's boxscore -- Yahoo!Sports.com Game Recap -- NBA.com's game highlights -- What would Oakley Do ]

Jazz Quartet -- Top Four Players of the Game:

Andrei Kirilenko Brevin Knight Carlos Boozer Ronnie Brewer
Andrei was forced into shooting threes in this game to bring the team back, and he did for the most part Knight was not a world beater, but he played well enough to stay in the quartet for another game Boozer was a workhorse who had 19 and 17 in a losing effort Brewer finished the game with 12/7/7 which is pretty good if you ask me.
Photographed by David Dow for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by David Dow for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by David Dow for NBAE/Getty Images Photographed by unknown for NBAE/Getty Images

Andrei Kirilenko should have excelled in this type of game, and some of his stats reflect that, though I think that he could have played better. 'Drei finished with 18 points (7-16 shooting, perfect from the line, and made 2 clutch threes in the 4th quarter), but only 2 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks. At times he was posting up against the much shorter Chris Duhon, yet the Jazz were able to get him the ball with mixed success, but other times he was unable to score on him. This upset me, though people who were actually at the game were quick to point out that Duhon fouling the hell out of Andrei, and was not getting called for it. Aside from that, Andrei was clutch down the stretch and made some really good passes off of drives. It just was not enough.

Knight was more effective than Price was in this game, and seemed to really get the other Jazz players involved when he was on the floor. Brevin was able to give the Jazz 10 points (three deep jumpers in rhythm and perfect ft shooting), 5 rebounds and 6 assists in 24 minutes of action. Knight was effective defensively in hounding the other teams' ball handlers in the half court set when he was in there, but could only do so much to affect the outcome of this game. He had a few Almond like experiences in this game, working hard to get the ball to an open man, only for that guy to miss an uncontested shot. Knight continues to shows that he can be a good back up PG with defensive instincts.

Boozer continues to be an offensive rock for us, in Deron William's absence. Boozer managed to notch 19 points (7-11 shooting, 5-6 ft) and grab a mammoth's worth of rebounds (17 -- 6 offensive). He also added three assists and 3 steals. He played good defense inside as well, being able to neutralize Zach Randolph in the paint. Unfortunately, Randolph did manage to shoot four open three pointers (because Boozer did not follow him outside the paint to defend him), and Randolph managed to hit two of them -- one of them the proverbial dagger three. Boozer only played 32 minutes because he was sidelined in the second half with foul trouble -- the culprit being the previously mentioned 4th foul in the 3rd quarter -- called on a made layup by Boozer.

Brewer finally makes his first Jazz Quartet of the season, and deservingly so. Brewer was one of the few capable Jazz players on this night, finishing with 12 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 7 steals and he made both of this three point attempts! Due to the crazy monkey lineups that Mike D'Antoni used, Brewer was rarely able to match up against Jamal Crawford though, which is a shame. Jamal did score a 4 point play against Ronnie though which really sucks. Great game by Brewer, none the less. His utility and usefulness will only improve with Deron finding him around the basket for dunks.

Digging Deeper:

This type of game really burns me up for a variety of reasons. Firstly, it started really early (1 pm EST) and this loss was the first loss of the season. Secondly, it was to the Knicks -- a team we have trouble handling for some reason. Thirdly, it was at Madison Square Gardens, a place we seemingly can't win it. Fourthly, it was to the @#&*#@ Knicks! Sure, the Jazz were without Deron, but you'd think that we would be talented enough to handle this team. I thought so, but I was wrong.

One of countless underdefended outside shots the Knicks took

The Knicks really killed it from the three point line, five different Knicks scored from deep, three of them for at least 2 threes. The Knicks took a lot of threes (24) but made an astonishing number of them (11). It was not just guards that got in on the act either, as Zach Randolph and Wilson Chandler (face up bigmen, but bigmen still) both went 2-4 against the Jazz from three. That's 8 uncontested, outside jumpers that the Jazz let the Knicks take.

This is not the 1980's anymore, many bigmen do have legit range -- just the other game against Portland (Game #4) the Jazz let Channing Frye and LaMarcus Aldridge shoot and make open threes against us. This may continue to be a problem down the line as our team defensive philosophy seems to over-emphasize defending the paint at all costs.

This is further compounded by the fact that many teams run sets where the ball handler is screened for. The Jazz coaching philosophy is to go behind the screen, instead of fighting through it to keep the ball handler defended. This left a number of open shots for the Knicks players that were not three pointers, but still very good looks. According to my scribbles notes on this game, the Jazz left a Knicks player open on these two types of plays (guy open for three, or guy open on perimeter screen) over 20 times. And the Knicks made the Jazz pay for it. Will every team shoot so well against the Jazz? Hopefully not, but if your defensive schemes rely on 'HOPE' then some changes need to happen.

As bad as the game looked, the Jazz were still in it, but were unable to retake the lead, despite being close in the 4th quarter on the road, without their best player. Part of the problem was rebounds. Sure, the Jazz managed to rebound the ball 41 times, but the second highest rebounder on the team was Brevin Knight. Mehmet Okur, who no doubt was severely distracted by off-court stuff, played 42 minutes and finished with 17 points but only 3 rebounds. That's one rebound every 14 minutes of play. That's not too good. The biggest beef I had with this game was the sheer number of open shots that the Jazz missed. There were a lot of good looks that were just missed. The Jazz could have won this game, and really they should have. Props to the Knicks . . . grudgingly. 

Next Game: Tuesday November 11th, 2008 -- Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Things to look for this season: Mehmet Okur

Memo is a man-mountain of offensive firepower. (not unlike the Janissary warriors of his Turkish heritage) He's a fantastic spot up shooter for a guy 6'11, and has legit range all over the court and is pretty clutch. He can play pick and pop, pick and roll, or even take his man off the dribble after a cute little pump fake. (Something he worked on all last season with Tyrone Corbin) Most people don't know that he's pretty good in the paint as well, heck, Memo routinely schools Amare Stoudemire when he posts up. After the All-Star break last season Memo averaged 17 and 10, and while a lot of NBA fans think that he's just a soft Euro because he has three point range may have failed to notice his absolutely insane rebounding numbers down the stretch. [15 games of 13 or more boards, 6 games of 16 or more, a season high 19 against the Lakers in the playoffs]

Memo is a bad ass He nails threes . . . . . . and has an under-rated floor game.
All photos by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images    

Okur was almost Dirk-like from February onwards, as he averaged a double double. Moreover, in games where Memo played in 35 minutes or more [he averages 33 mpg in the regular season] from February onwards he averaged 18.7 ppg and 11.2 rpg. If you further select only games where he plays a Dirk-like 38 mpg then his numbers balloon to 19.3 ppg and 12.1 rpg. You're a pretty good team if your 3rd option is giving you 19.3 and 12.1 when he plays big minutes. "Oh," you say, "these are only for the regular season." Well, In the playoffs he averaged 15.4 ppg and 11.8 rpg. [Up from 14.5 and 7.7 in the regular season] In the games where he only played 38 minutes or above (again, Dirk like numbers) he ends up getting 16.5 ppg, 13.1 rpg -- and 2 apg and 0.78 bpg to boot. If you ramp his stats up to just the games he played over 40 mpg those go to 2.8 apg and 1 bpg respectively if you were wondering. This may even prompt us to ask ourselves if we really do have a center problem when ours averages a double double and pulls down over 13 rebounds per game in the playoffs (in games where he gets star player minutes)?

I'm sorry, for whatever reason people (outside of Utah, Detroit and Turkey) have failed to recognize that Mehmet Okur is a serious bad-ass. Tyson Chandler has that rep, and he averaged 8 ppg and 10.3 rpg in the playoffs. If you forgot already, Okur averaged 15.4 and 11.8. Tyson blocks more shots [a whole 2/3rds of a block more when Memo plays big minutes -- but then Tyson's 8 ppg looks really bad against Memo's 17.2 ppg], but Memo actually makes his free throws and hits threes. If Okur gets better stats than Tyson, why is Tyson a bad-ass, and Memo is soft? There are many reasons, but this isn't the time to discuss racial provincialism in NBA fans. What is it time for is time to talk about what three things we should look for this season from Memo:

  1. We need him to start off 'Hot': This is especially true when we've got two rotation guys currently down (Deron Williams, Matt Harpring). Memo is a capable player, his stats from February on through the playoffs show this. He was an All-Star two seasons ago, and the Jazz are going to need him to start off 'Hot' this season, instead of allow him to sleep-walk for half the season, and then turn it on in a Shaq-like development. Thankfully he has come into camp in the best shape of his life and he's been getting praised for his added mobility by coaches and the media alike. This is potentially a contract year for him as well, and if he could be nominated for the All-Star game it would greatly improve his asking price. Memo is an All-Star level talent when he's on the floor for star minutes (35+ mpg) and is averaging 19 and 12.
  2. Needs to get to the line more: Did you know that one of our top scoring options and top free throw shooters (by percentage) only gets to the line 3.2 times a game, based on last year's statistics? That was remarkably low for him, as in his previous seasons he was going to the line 4.7, 5.5 and 4.8 times per game. The Jazz offense should put Memo in more situations where he draws fouls (maybe on those pump-fake drives of his, or dare I say it, more post up work). I think Memo needs to shoot between 5 and 6 free throws a game. Andrei went to the line 3.6 times per game and he never even has the ball in his hands on offense, what gives? Even Tyson Chandler went to the line more, at a whopping 3.7 FTA/game, not that he did much good there (59.3 ft%), but that's besides the point. Only Kyle Korver shot better from the line than Memo last season, we need to get our best FT shooters to the line more for easy points.
  3. Three point accuracy: It kind of begins and ends with Memo's three point shooting. Being a three point ace makes him a three point threat. Being a three point threat allows him to pump fake people closing out on him, which allows him to put the ball on the floor and drive. Driving allows him to get fouled more, and thus, go to the line more for freebies. Memo needs to shoot a high percentage from deep again this year, especially with Deron possibly being out for a few games we're a little week on outside shooting for the time being. Dirk was like this as well, but he just ended up shooting less and less threes every year and now people remember that he's a three point maker, but he doesn't actually make three pointers. Last season Dirk made 79 threes (up from 72 the season before), but only at the rate of 35.9 3pt%. Last season the Jazz had a few people who shot a higher percentage than Dirk did: Deron @ 39.5%, C.J. @ 39.0%,  Memo and Kyle both @ 38.8%, AK-47 @ 37.9%. I think that Memo's driving ability should make him take (potentially) less threes, but with the over-all result of making him take (shoot and make) a higher percentage of threes. I want to see him shoot above 40% from deep this season while still making more than 100 of them (last season he hit 114 threes, the season before he made 129) . I think that he can.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Things to look for this season: Kyle Korver

Who is Kyle Korver? Let's just say that he's a white shooting specialist who is a product of growing up in the Midwest and going to a smaller program in a fly-over state who was picked up by the Utah Jazz in a pre-trade deadline trade with the Philadelphia 76ers. Isn't that essentially the rap on Jeff Hornacek as well? The only difference is that Hornacek was an All-Star player (in the West, no doubt), and Korver is 3 inches taller and does less on the floor.

Kyle Korver doesn't need your dress code

When speculating on what the expect from Kyle this season I was reminded by what Jeff said years ago. He stressed how much of a difference it was for him, as a player in this system, to have at least one Utah Jazz / Jerry Sloan training camp under his belt. He was not so lucky when he first came to Utah in the middle of the 1993-1994 season, and had to basically play catch-up for the remaining 27 games (plus playoffs) of the season.

His familiarity, timing and production in the Utah Jazz system all improved from his first season to the next. Obviously part of this is just the fact that he's going to be better in a system after 120 games than after 40.

The beneficial effect of a training camp cannot be discarded either. So, let's look at the difference in play between that '93-'94 season and the 1994-1995 season:

The first (and probably most apparent) point is that Hornacek's mpg went up (30.6 to 33.3); so did his shot attempts per game (10.7 to 11.6); his field goal percentage also went up (50.9% to 51.4%); he also found out where in the offense to go to get three point shot attempts (1.6 threes attempted per game to 2.7); he got to the free throw line more (3.4 fta/game to 4.0) and ended up scoring more points per game (14.6 to 16.5). He also was able to understand the offense better to the point that he also recorded more assists (3.9 to 4.3). If you look at the end of season stats the difference from his total stats in Philly and Utah (1993-1994) vs. his first full season with the Jazz (1994-1995) are just silly -- 47.0 fg% to 51.4 fg%; 33.7 3pt% to 40.6 3pt% (46.6 the next season!!!); etc . . .

The Jazz offense is more complicated than any random fan will ever know, so complicated that a 30 year old player who has been an All-Star and in the league around a decade IMPROVES after having a Jazz training camp. It would be ridiculous to also expect Korver not to play 'better' and know the system better after a training camp. I don't expect Kyle to play 33 mpg, but I do expect him to know what he can do with his time better this season. That said, here's are three things to look out for this season:

  1. Expanded role in the offense in accordance with understanding it better: Hornacek was (and probably will always be) a much more talented and capable basketball player. (He used to start at shooting guard in Phoenix and was the back-up point guard for Stern's sake!) He had a really high basketball IQ (only Wade seems to make crazier layups after being fouled than the one legged Hornacek). Jeff still understood the offense better after training camp. Korver will also understand the offense better as well. Essentially the first real barriers have been overcome already -- early on when Kyle got the ball he felt pressured to shoot it. When asked why he answered that in Philly he had been conditioned to not expect the ball back after passing it. Things are different in the Jazz offense and he was surprised to see simple things like 'give 'n go's still existed here. He seems to understand that Harpring curl play, and knows how to stand in the corner waiting for the kick out pass, but he really hasn't found his legs in terms of finding guys who are open in return. If he could average over 2 apg in Philly he should be able to at least MATCH that here in Utah. (1.4 apg last season with the Jazz) More to the point, he can be the guy who passes the ball to the guy who gets the assist (what Hornacek was on a lot of plays) . . . training camp will help with this as he'll become a much more effective and cognitively aware Jazz player. His rep as a shooter is solid, why can't he pump fake a guy rotating to cover him, take two dribbles and pass to a cutter? His role in the offense needs to expand as his understanding of it does.
  2. Shoot smarter, thanks in part to training camp: I remember in the first few games after Kyle came to the Jazz that on breaks Deron would pass him the ball and he would just raise up outside of the three point line (no doubt causing sparks to go off in Jerry Sloan's pre-1960's basketball wired brain) -- just look in his first 20 games with the Jazz he was shooting 4.35 threes a game. Things did change as the season went on and in his last 20 games last season that was cut down to 3.2 a game. That does not mean that he was generally shooting less in total, but he was shooting smarter shots within the team offense. (In his last 20 games he still had a few games where he shot more than 5 threes, but this time around they came within the construct of the Jazz offense, instead of against the offense) Another factor is that as the season went on he rarely shot threes when there wasn't at least one Jazz guy in the paint to potentially grab the rebound. Before, in his first 20 games, he was a volume shooter who did not take 'smart' shots. I expect his shots to be even 'smarter' after a full training camp.
  3. Better team defense: Kyle is never going to be confused with Michael Cooper or Joe Dumars. That said, he's not completely hopeless on defense. His days playing one on one against Allen Iverson in Philly has taught him to sag off of quicker guards and stay in front of them. This is, really, fundamentally sound defense, as he tries to get in situations where he is beat off the dribble increasingly less. It still happens, but he does something that few guards really do. His 6'7 frame and lack of expected ability allow him to get a ridiculous number of weakside, stealth blocks. [0.5 bpg with the Jazz last season, tied for 3rd best on the team] Last season he had 9 games of at least 2 blocks. Really. Look it up. That includes games where he had 4 blocks against the Wizards, and 3 against the Nuggets. Furthermore, he'd have a lot more blocks but the score keepers are themselves so surprised that they do not even record some of his blocks as blocks at all! That said, he's not a great defender. He is fundamentally sound, long, and hopefully with the help of training camp, become a better team defender. And frankly, if you aren't getting better defensively after a Jerry Sloan training camp then you are incapable of getting better defensively. (I'm looking at you, Carlos!)

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Point for Point

The Utah Jazz have been lucky in some ways, and unlucky in others. One of the greatest examples of this is how they have had some pretty good point guard play over the years. Perhaps luck has nothing to do with it, and it's rather the scouting department and player development that has much to do with the apparent success of Ricky Green, John Stockton and now, Deron Williams. Of course there were some lean years along the way, specifically the capable though unspectacular trio of Carlos "Pride of Puerto Rico" Arroyo; Raul "The Hispanic Heartthrob"Lopez; and Maurice "Mo" Williams -- but those days are now gone.

Ricky Green was the reason why Stockton didn't start until his 3rd year in the League Stockton is, probably, the best player in franchise history Raul Lopez quickly became a pariah Success went to Carlos Arroyo's head Mo Williams now plays in Milwaukee Deron Williams is the most dangerous point guard the Jazz have ever had

Recently, as recent as last week, the Utah Jazz front office was able to trade Jason Hart for Brevin Knight. This type of trade may have no overt impact in the short term -- though this trade may resonate within the consciousness of fans for generations to come -- like the trade that brought Ostertag back to Utah. Or maybe not. That said, this position for the Jazz has not been this secure since the days of Stockton, Eisley and Vaughn.

Point for point -- Brevin Knight is the superior player out of the two traded. Through this measure, Kevin O'Connor won the trade. It doesn't hurt that Knight makes less money and is pretty talented for a 3rd stringer. It's also good to know that Knight is just too damn short, and not a good enough shooter for Jerry Sloan to go crazy, and contemplate starting -- like he did with that Deron Williams / Derek Fisher starting lineup in the 2006-2007 season. Neither are perfect . . . Hart was to bring defense and veteran leadership, but ended the season deep on the bench while Ronnie Price made fans and the media go wow! Brevin is good at taking care of the ball, but has made only 16 career three pointers. That is a ridiculously low number which makes me cringe at the thought of him being in the game, and the other team immediately clogging the paint and passing lanes with a super-duper zone defense.

Brevin Knight better not take Morris Almond's #22 Hart returns to the Clippers! Success!

Photo by NBAE / Getty Images

Photo by NBAE / Getty Images

At the risk of repeating myself, Knight is a solid 3rd stringer because he is frequently unable to stay healthy for any long period of time, is very short, and can't shoot. All of our sets that we run rely on the point guard being able to, at the very least, keep the defense honest. Outside shooting is a key component of the NBA today -- when Portland found out that the Jazz had spotty shooting from deep (before the Korver trade) they just zoned us and laughed. I don't want a repeat of that horrible December, 2007.

Knight is also great insurance. Sometimes players get tired. And tired players who play long minutes are at risk of getting injured. John Stockton played in the Olympics in the summer of '92 and again in '96. Each season after the Olympics he had relatively 'down' seasons in the NBA (scoring and assists went down from 1991-1992 to 1992-1993, and again in 1995-1996 to 1996-1997). [For those keeping track at home, the Jazz went to the Western Conference Finals in 1991-1992, then the next season were bounced from the 1st round of the Playoffs. In 1995-1996 the Jazz were again defeated in the Western Conference Finals, and in the next season lost in the NBA Finals.] The Jazz Brass want to make sure that if Deron needs more time during the regular season to rest that they can afford to let him have it.

"I'm happy to be coming to a winning team with very good players and a Hall of Fame coach . . . How can I be upset with that? I'm also looking forward to hearing the cheers and not the boos from Jazz fans. I see my role as being a veteran guy there to do whatever is necessary to help the team win. I'll more know about that when I get to down." (Knight, 2008, via. The Salt Lake Tribune)

It's a solid deal for the Jazz, may have had some influence on the C.J. Miles re-signing and could be good for us down the road. Great move Kevin O'Connor!