A little early but . . . NBADraft.net's 2010 Top 10

This is really premature, but as Jazz fans, we all know why we should be keeping an eye on this . . . Well, here is nbadraft.net's mock draft for 2010:

1. John Wall, 6'4 PG
2. Ricky Rubio, 6'4, PG
3. Xavier Henry, 6'6, SG
4. Jrue Holiday, 6'4, PG/SG
5. Derrick Favors, 6'9, PF
6. Gani Lawal, 6'9, PF
7. Austin Daye, 6'10, SF
8. Donatas Motiejunas, 7'1, PF
9. Davin Ebanks, 6'8, SF
10. Scotty Hopson, 6'6, SG

I'm pretty sure that David Stern would do whatever it takes to make sure that we don't get Ricky Rubio, even though he's a dead ringer for a former Jazz player that we may all know . . . Who knows if any of those 10 guys will be true Lotto picks (i.e. the top 14 picked each year), or even if the Knicks will be in the lotto by then? (Thanks, guys . . . ) Even more surprising would be to guess what the Jazz would need in 2010.

There's just so much up in the air that will "eventually" sort itself out after next off-season. (God willing) So it'll be much easier to forecast a drafting direction for future years after that's all taken care of. I do know that if Price and Knight get short contracts from the Jazz this following off-season that the Jazz may be in need of a PG to help Deron out time to time.

By 2010 if our shooting guard situation still necessitates the drafting of young SGs then our current crop of 3 young guys (CJ, Ronnie B and Mobe) must not have panned out. Even more startling would be if one of our three recent centers all end up as duds (Fesenko, Koufos and Tomic). I'm guessing we'll either be on the look out for a PF -- we can't honestly expect to have Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Millsap all on the roster by then, and will need to reload at the 4 for sure.

Though . . . it would be fun to see Ricky as a rookie playing with our 2nd unit throwing oops to Andrei, and making crazy passes to Korver . . .

Utah Jazz Pre-Season 2008-2009: Position Battle

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the main battle is at the shooting guard spot. In this case conventional wisdom is wrong. There *is* no battle at shooting guard anymore, it's (1) Ronnie Brewer, (2) Kyle Korver, and (3) does it matter anymore as both of those guys average over 20 mpg? It kind of does, but only so far as we can understand that we have quality, depth and youth at the SG spot. That's no more the problem . . . the new problem is back up center. And it's a big problem. This has been the real position battle since draft night.

Why is it a big problem? Well, all of our other spots seem pretty good. In the absolute end of days situation, PG can be handled by D-Will, Ronnie Price, Brevin Knight, CJ Miles and Andrei Kirilenko. Also Brewer has okay handles. SG has a platoon of guys, and half of those guys can also play SF, which already has Andrei, Matt Harpring, and in some situations, Paul Millsap. We have the best PFs in the league.Center? After Memo (who is severely under-rated) we're looking at:

• a guy who has gotten worse every year he's been in the league in Jarron Collins
• someone who is applying for the job of 'the new Ostertag' in Fesenko
• and a completely unproven 19 year old rookie who will be a player in this league, just not this season, in Kosta

Larry	Curly	and Moe

All three photos by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Unless the Jazz go small a lot this season, and have Boozer play 10+ MPG at the 5 then one of these three guys is going to need to step up and manage to play up to par with the rest of our talented roster. Okur averages around 33 mpg, but essentially, it should be up to 35 at least -- you know, because he produced 18.7 and 11.2 when he played at least 35 mpg last season. This would (thankfully) leave us with only about a quarter of basketball action where one of these three ghastly ghouls would need to step out on the floor.

Making things even more sports movie cliche is the fact that all three of these guys (JC, KF and KK) all have something "to prove" this season. Jarron Collins is in a contract year (yeah, I know, sounds funny doesn't it?) and wants to prove to his coach, his teammates -- and to himself that he's not done yet. His contract expires and he wants to be getting another one.

Kyrylo Fesenko is the import that no one knew about and people fell in love with. The honeymoon was short with the media, and now all he does is get killed in print, on the Internet, and by his own coaches. He wants to prove that he wasn't a flash in the pan player who is going to never reach his potential. Especially with a younger, more scoring adept player breathing down his neck he wants to show everyone that he is the future at the 5 for the Jazz.

The last guy is Mr.Rookie, small town mom and apple pie (and souvlaki), Luke Skywalker on Tatooine boyscout who wants to prove that he belongs in the NBA 1 year out of having a designated homeroom, lunch period and recess.

It's insane that I think the Jazz are contenders this year when I look at our back up bigmen . . . not a bonafide player among them. Then I'm reminded that we used to roll with Greg Foster and an ancient Armond Gilliam in the paint in previous years.

Whomever wins this position battle is going to decide their fate with the Jazz -- yes, another incentive. If Collins wins he may finagle his way into another 2 year contract with the Jazz and eat up another roster spot. If Fesenko wins then he'll allow Koufos an entire year (if he needs it) to play in the NBA D-League while getting himself (Fes) the experience he needs playing 5 in the NBA to the point where he'll be a contributor when the playoffs come around for the 8-10 mpg that the Jazz will need out of him. If Kosta wins then he doesn't have to go to the NBA D league, which is kind of what you expect from your 1st round draft picks who play one of your most shallow positions.

Aside from what they expect, what do I expect from them? Well, you can check it out here (Jarron Collins, Kyrylo Fesenko, Kosta Koufos); but in short . . . I expect them to play to their strengths and in the case of the younger players -- I expect them to split time in SLC and Orem this season. Fes has done worse than I expected, but still hold out hope that he can win this position battle and contribute more than the other two guys could this season. Only time will tell if I'm right . . .

Things to look for this season: Mehmet Okur

Memo is a man-mountain of offensive firepower. (not unlike the Janissary warriors of his Turkish heritage) He's a fantastic spot up shooter for a guy 6'11, and has legit range all over the court and is pretty clutch. He can play pick and pop, pick and roll, or even take his man off the dribble after a cute little pump fake. (Something he worked on all last season with Tyrone Corbin) Most people don't know that he's pretty good in the paint as well, heck, Memo routinely schools Amare Stoudemire when he posts up. After the All-Star break last season Memo averaged 17 and 10, and while a lot of NBA fans think that he's just a soft Euro because he has three point range may have failed to notice his absolutely insane rebounding numbers down the stretch. [15 games of 13 or more boards, 6 games of 16 or more, a season high 19 against the Lakers in the playoffs]

All photos by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images

Okur was almost Dirk-like from February onwards, as he averaged a double double. Moreover, in games where Memo played in 35 minutes or more [he averages 33 mpg in the regular season] from February onwards he averaged 18.7 ppg and 11.2 rpg. If you further select only games where he plays a Dirk-like 38 mpg then his numbers balloon to 19.3 ppg and 12.1 rpg. You're a pretty good team if your 3rd option is giving you 19.3 and 12.1 when he plays big minutes. "Oh," you say, "these are only for the regular season." Well, In the playoffs he averaged 15.4 ppg and 11.8 rpg. [Up from 14.5 and 7.7 in the regular season] In the games where he only played 38 minutes or above (again, Dirk like numbers) he ends up getting 16.5 ppg, 13.1 rpg -- and 2 apg and 0.78 bpg to boot. If you ramp his stats up to just the games he played over 40 mpg those go to 2.8 apg and 1 bpg respectively if you were wondering. This may even prompt us to ask ourselves if we really do have a center problem when ours averages a double double and pulls down over 13 rebounds per game in the playoffs (in games where he gets star player minutes)?

I'm sorry, for whatever reason people (outside of Utah, Detroit and Turkey) have failed to recognize that Mehmet Okur is a serious bad-ass. Tyson Chandler has that rep, and he averaged 8 ppg and 10.3 rpg in the playoffs. If you forgot already, Okur averaged 15.4 and 11.8. Tyson blocks more shots [a whole 2/3rds of a block more when Memo plays big minutes -- but then Tyson's 8 ppg looks really bad against Memo's 17.2 ppg], but Memo actually makes his free throws and hits threes. If Okur gets better stats than Tyson, why is Tyson a bad-ass, and Memo is soft? There are many reasons, but this isn't the time to discuss racial provincialism in NBA fans. What is it time for is time to talk about what three things we should look for this season from Memo:

1. We need him to start off 'Hot': This is especially true when we've got two rotation guys currently down (Deron Williams, Matt Harpring). Memo is a capable player, his stats from February on through the playoffs show this. He was an All-Star two seasons ago, and the Jazz are going to need him to start off 'Hot' this season, instead of allow him to sleep-walk for half the season, and then turn it on in a Shaq-like development. Thankfully he has come into camp in the best shape of his life and he's been getting praised for his added mobility by coaches and the media alike. This is potentially a contract year for him as well, and if he could be nominated for the All-Star game it would greatly improve his asking price. Memo is an All-Star level talent when he's on the floor for star minutes (35+ mpg) and is averaging 19 and 12.
2. Needs to get to the line more: Did you know that one of our top scoring options and top free throw shooters (by percentage) only gets to the line 3.2 times a game, based on last year's statistics? That was remarkably low for him, as in his previous seasons he was going to the line 4.7, 5.5 and 4.8 times per game. The Jazz offense should put Memo in more situations where he draws fouls (maybe on those pump-fake drives of his, or dare I say it, more post up work). I think Memo needs to shoot between 5 and 6 free throws a game. Andrei went to the line 3.6 times per game and he never even has the ball in his hands on offense, what gives? Even Tyson Chandler went to the line more, at a whopping 3.7 FTA/game, not that he did much good there (59.3 ft%), but that's besides the point. Only Kyle Korver shot better from the line than Memo last season, we need to get our best FT shooters to the line more for easy points.
3. Three point accuracy: It kind of begins and ends with Memo's three point shooting. Being a three point ace makes him a three point threat. Being a three point threat allows him to pump fake people closing out on him, which allows him to put the ball on the floor and drive. Driving allows him to get fouled more, and thus, go to the line more for freebies. Memo needs to shoot a high percentage from deep again this year, especially with Deron possibly being out for a few games we're a little week on outside shooting for the time being. Dirk was like this as well, but he just ended up shooting less and less threes every year and now people remember that he's a three point maker, but he doesn't actually make three pointers. Last season Dirk made 79 threes (up from 72 the season before), but only at the rate of 35.9 3pt%. Last season the Jazz had a few people who shot a higher percentage than Dirk did: Deron @ 39.5%, C.J. @ 39.0%,  Memo and Kyle both @ 38.8%, AK-47 @ 37.9%. I think that Memo's driving ability should make him take (potentially) less threes, but with the over-all result of making him take (shoot and make) a higher percentage of threes. I want to see him shoot above 40% from deep this season while still making more than 100 of them (last season he hit 114 threes, the season before he made 129) . I think that he can.

Wow . . . possibly the best ever pre-season game?

Remember that game that I mentioned below, the one that was supposed to be the worst ever pre-season game? Well, turns out that I was wrong. (And not the last time for that either . . . ) Paul Millsap did play, and so too did Andrei Kirilenko. Furthermore Gerry McNamara played for the Jazz as well. 'Melo suited up for the Nuggets and the game went into over time and ended 120-119 in favor of the home team. That seems pretty exciting . . . especially with some of the crazy passes and plays that we got to see. (And a special appearance by Mateen Cleaves)

Deron did his work (22 and 8), Almond took his shots (11 fga), C.J. played point (which I WAS right about) and AK made some good blocks (3) and assists (3). All of that is great but we need to make a special point to laud the Rookie Kosta Koufos for some really good play!

Kosta finished the game with 11 points (5-7 fg, 0-4 ft, 1-1 3pt), 7 rebounds (3 offensive), 1 block and 1 assist. Additionally, it seems like only one of our two young center prospects can have a good game on any given day -- as Fes finished with 1 rebound in 5 less minutes of action. But back to Kosta, he hit a three in OT to make it a one point game, so that was pretty clutch -- especially for a Rookie! So that's impressive. Not so was going 0-4 at the FT line when he was above 90% during the RMR.
	Photographed by Garrett W. Ellwood for NBAE/Getty Images	Photographed by Garrett W. Ellwood for NBAE/Getty Images

Sure that looks like the difference in a one point loss, but hey, he's a rookie so back off -- he's only going to get better. And right now he's showing glimpses of potential. He looks to be a more complete player than Fesenko (duh) -- the only problem I have is that he seems to be a bit redundant. (Not like the Jazz don't draft for redundancy, because they do) I don't have a problem with bigmen who can shoot the ball, it's just that is not a problem for the Jazz. The Jazz need a cro-magnon in the paint who will throw his body around, give dangerous looks, and play rough. So far Kosta shows a lot of finesse. He'll get better though. Kongrats Kosta Koufos! And keep it up!

Fi-nal-ee . . . It's haa-ped . . . to me!

CeCe Peniston (not to be confused with Carlos' boss, CeCe Boozer) is overjoyed by the news of Jerry Sloan calling out Kosta Koufos for shooting the damn ball so much. I must admit that I'm happy about it too. Kosta shoots the ball so damn much -- and the media never criticizes him for this (instead they heap insane amounts of love upon him, everything from him being an NBA ready talent to being the #2 center or power forward on the roster) -- that it has forced me into siding with the underdog Fesenko out of the two prospects.

Hopefully Kosta's last game of offensive quantity (5 FGA) over quality (0 FGM) will FI-NAL-EE open up the floodgates of criticism. DJ and PK (morning sports talk radio personalities on 1320 KFAN) even started to hint that (through quoting Sloan), perhaps, Kosta wasn't going to be an All-Star this season. Quoted in the Deseret News today, Sloan had this to say:

"Now Koufos is a little different story. I don't know what that was. He shot it every time he touched [the ball] . . . [When asked if Kosta had a green light to shoot he replied that] He's got a green light to go rebound. He's got a green light to pick up loose balls, and those things that young guys should do when they step out on the floor . . . he can shoot the ball, and that's one of his strengths. When he's been open, he's probably been told to shoot it (previously). But we'd like for him to fake to the other guys once in a while, just to let them known they're in the same game." (Jerry Sloan, 2008, via Desert News)

Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images	CeCe Peniston "Finally" [3:58], (thanks SuperNudel!)not officially a song about the media (and Jazz Coaches) recognizing that Kosta Koufos isn't the best thing since sliced bread, and that he shoots the ball way too much for a rookie.

Kosta's cumulative shooting stats have been unimpressive. I know, I have it all on a spreadsheet. All of his professional experience exists as a pretty small sample size . . . 8 games . . . but I can only work with what I have, right? Koufos was purported to be some sort of offensive stud -- or at the very least, NBA ready on offense. (not entirely unlike Mehmet Okur) He shoots a bad percentage, and shoots the ball a lot. Which is only compounded by the fact that he shoots a bad percentage. Which looks even worse because he shoots the ball a lot. Sound like I'm repeating myself? I think I am, but so far no one has been listening.

Mr.Koufos has shot the ball 42 times in the Rocky Mountain Review. So far he has shot the ball 6 times in 2008-2009 Preseason games. That's a total of 48 times. Out of those 48 times, how many has he actually made? 17. What's that as a percentage? 35.4 fg -- which is pretty shabby if he was drafted partly because he was a good offensive player.

Shooting the ball 48 times in 8 games doesn't look that bad though -- that's only shooting the ball 6 times per game. The problem is how often he plays. He played 96:40 minutes in the RMR, and so far has played around 11 minutes in the Preseason. That's around 107:40 total minutes. Right now I'm going to show you his ratio of shots taken and minutes played. This is simply 48 shots : 107:40 mins = 1 shot : x How often does he shoot the ball, then? Once every 2.23 minutes. That is a very high rate for someone who shoots poorly. Carlos Boozer, who last season (2007-2008) scored over 21 ppg (at 55 fg%) shot the ball once every 2.18 minutes (1297 shots in 2827 minutes). What's the difference between 0.05 minutes? That's 3 seconds. Does Kosta Koufos, a 19 year old rookie who shoots the ball 35 fg%, NEED to be shooting the ball 3 seconds less frequently than a two time All-Star and two time Olympian who is the primary scoring option of the team -- a guy who shoots 20% better?

Kosta shoots it over Greg Oden -- obviously a necessary shot to take! Photographed by Sam Forencich for NBAE/Getty Images

Absolutely not.

Obviously the main criticism of my point of view will be that RMR stats shouldn't count, and that his playing in some games shouldn't either -- because of how little he has been playing. Okay, well, let's get rid of the game against the Lakers where he only played 2 minutes. That means that he shot the ball 47 times in 105:40 total minutes, instead of 48 in 107:40. That he made 16 shots, instead of 17. And that he played in 7 games, and not 8. This results, ultimately, in shooting the ball once every 2.24 (as opposed to 2.23) at the whopping proficiency of 34.0 fg%. [And shooting the ball 6.7 times a game, and not 6]

Don't get me wrong, I like the kid. I think he'll be a pro in this league and play (barring injuries) at least as long as a guy like Pat Garrity or Michael Doleac. (Hopefully with a better looking career, though) Let's just slow down the hype and media love for a while, okay guys? He's not already better than Jarron Collins and Kyrylo Fesenko ('cept maybe in ft% and shooting range, where he kills those guys). He's not the back-up center, and he's definitely NOT the back-up power forward. He's going to need seasoning in the NBA-DL this next season. He'll end up shooting better, having a better shot selection, and be well on his way towards having a solid rookie season as a teen in the NBA playing on a contender. (That's to say, watching older guys play while he runs around in the NBA D-League)

I'm just happy that people are finally recognizing his fault. Sorry, CeCe and I are BOTH happy that people see these faults, and FI-NAL-EE it's happening to us . . . that we're not the only ones repeating ourselves about the empirically obvious problem of a 19 year old rookie who shoots 35 fg% shooting the ball as much as our All-Star and scoring meal ticket Carlos Boozer.

Shaq vs. Fes: Round 1

Shaq was Kyrylo's hero growing up . . . and really, if you are 7'1 and play basketball Shaq SHOULD be your role model, as no other modern player at his height and size has done better in their lifetime. Fesenko isn't one of your fancy dancy prancy outside shooting centers, and while he seems to have inherited some European bigman passing skills, he understands that his path to success should rarely stray farther than 8 feet from the basket. If you've seen his game, it's hard not to see some level of sincere emulation on the part of Fes to play like Shaq as well. He wants to get better. He wants to be the fabled vanilla gorilla.

They finally got a chance to suit up against each other on Thursday night, with Shaq's Phoenix Suns winning the game -- both Shaq and Fes had nothing to do with the game's outcome though. (Shaq had 5 points and 3 assists, Fesenko had nothing but a single steal in 12 minutes of action) After the game Fes had some interesting comments to make about playing against The Diesel.

Fes bodies him up . . .	. . . pokes the ball away . . .	. . . and lives to talk about it.
		"It was really hard," Fesenko said. "I realize that I am not big, I am not strong. I am small girl compared to Shaq. So I have a lot of work to do - I have a lot of work to do - and I need to start right now if I want to make the team, at least this year."
Photographed by Melissa Majchrzak for NBAE/Getty Images	Photographed by Steve C. Wilson for AP Photo	O'Neal didn't say anything to him Thursday, but the 7-foot-1, 300-pound Fesenko said, "One time after I push him in the back, he look at me and this look I will see probably in my nightmares." (Kyrylo Fesenko, via Ross Siler, 2008, The Salt Lake Tribune)

For all the Fes haters out there, Shaq posted up on him 8 times, and scored only once and finished with a grand total of 3 points when he was being checked by Fesenko. The other feller isn't even healthy enough to get into games (you know, Koufos) . . . but it's still all Fes' fault, for everything . . . the loss, the lack of a championship last season, the economy, global warming, and so on. Still, none other than Jerry Sloan had this to say after the game:

"That's a tough assignment," Jazz coach Jerry Sloan added. "At least he tried to compete against him. That was the nice thing to see. That's a little bit more than what we got out of some of the other people." (Jerry Sloan, via Ross Siler, 2008, The Salt Lake Tribune)

You can't be that bad if you hold Shaq to three points in your 2nd pre-season in your career . . . I don't know why people have already given up on Fesenko . . . just because he has a longer learning curve doesn't mean he can't be a good player. Chauncey Billups had a very long learning curve as well, and he was a 1st round pick -- Kyrylo was a 2nd rounder. Give him a break, guys! He played better defense on Shaq than Ostertag ever did. And he's only 21!